Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Johnny Depp will go to Russia and get a lot of money for it, — Russian media.
The 60-year-old Pirates of the Caribbean star will allegedly receive $370,000 for this.
Let's hope it's another lie from the Russian media.

It's likely true. Depp is a political schizophrenic who recently threatened to assassinate Trump while speaking at Glastonbury yet throws his misogynistic hat into every ring available.

The man is deeply disturbed.

Here's another example of how Ukraine uses deep-strike weapons to degrade Russia's command and control apparatus. In this case, it was Storm Shadow plus hotel = dead general. There were doubtless other officers killed too.

Militaries like using hotels as headquarters because they can live and work comfortably there. The downside is that it makes them very easy to target.

Given the Russian Army's centralized, top down command doctrine, this will paralyze thousands of troops until a new chain of command can be brought in.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1678743904131203072

Stray relatives and contacts update.

My brother has partly supported a Ukrainian student who has been in London (and knows of a similar one in New York) studying online. As their courses are going back to being in person they have the dilemma of going home or dropping out. Or something along those lines.

None of our relatives have been injured or have left Ukraine. Up to now.

One of the young men in the armed forces has been wounded. Shrapnel. Not life threatening, but disabling and disfiguring.

The small family group in occupied Kherson Oblast have been in intermittent contact. 'It's hell' seems to be the theme. After the flooding, their rural area's basic 'hanging together' has degraded even further. There are serious issues with food supplies and drinking water. They did say they had investigated 'getting out', but I think they have strong limpet tendencies. Apparently the quoted rate for being Man With A Van smuggled out from where they are is $540 per person. Route: down to Crimea, loop around in Russia (if Prigozhin can do it in military vehicles, think what a man with a van can do) and into Belarus. Then Poland? I'm not convinced this is even doable with the funding if it existed, but there we are. You would need to be smuggled as otherwise you'd face being resettled.

They say the weather has changed. It's summer of course, but the absence of large bodies of water no longer evaporating away must have an impact I suppose. Like many things, the longer term effects won't be clear for some time.

@MMBaranova Your poor, poor relatives. Is there any chance of liberation at all in the next months? It sounds terribly uncertain going through Crimea and Russia and Belorus - Ive heard stories of Ukrainian passport holders being refused exit from Russia too :/

Poor student too. What an awful choice - go back and face conscription maybe, or to give up your course.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal.
• Germany and France pledged to provide Ukraine more weapons systems during the first day of the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11.
• A coalition of 11 states signed a memorandum with Ukraine outlining the terms for training Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 aircraft at the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 11.
• The Kremlin’s and Russian milbloggers’ reactions to the first day of the NATO Summit were relatively muted.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu attempted to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed effort against the backdrop of the NATO Summit.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 11 and made gains in some areas.
• A Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov at the command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian military command for failing to defend against Ukrainian strikes on Russian headquarters.
• Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov reportedly fired Commander of the 58th CAA Major General Ivan Popov after Popov voiced his concerns over the need for troop rotations in western Zaporizhia Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives.
• An unknown actor killed the Krasnodar City Deputy Head for Mobilization, Captain Stanislav Rzhitsky, on July 10.

• Russian forces are conducting offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and made territorial gains.

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on Bakhmut’s northern and southern outskirts.
• Russian forces launched assaults on Ukrainian positions on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka frontline.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues measures to gradually mobilize Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) to meet Russian military demands in Ukraine without conducting a wider economic mobilization.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on July 11 that the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK) is struggling to establish regional branches in occupied territories in Ukraine.

The ISW has said on a small handful of occasions that Russia is advancing along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

NATO allies adopted a three-part support package for Ukraine, which includes removing the requirement to undergo the Membership Action Plan, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during the Vilnius summit on July 11. https://kyivindependent.com/vilnius-summit-brings-ukraine-closer-to-nato-but-direct-invitation-withheld/

⚡️ Zelensky arrives for second day of NATO summit in Vilnius.
President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined three issues that he will prioritize on the second day of NATO's 2023 Vilnius Summit: new military aid packages and weapons for Ukraine, Ukraine's invitation to NATO, and security guarantees in the lead-up to NATO.

⚡️Politico: EU draws up plan https://kyivindependent.com/politico-eu-draws-up-plan-for-ukraine-security-guarantees/ for Ukraine security guarantees.

The European Union's diplomatic service has prepared a draft plan to provide Ukraine with long-term security commitments, Politico reported on July 11.

⚡️ US State Department: Russia will not stop https://kyivindependent.com/us-state-department-russia-will-not-stop-ukraines-path-to-nato/ Ukraine's path to NATO.

https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-stoltenberg-says-ukraine-receives-clear-path-to-nato-provides-no-time-frame/

Zelensky said that Ukraine would receive "new defense instruments" as a result of the ongoing Vilnius NATO summit. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-announces-new-defense-tools-for-ukraine/

Any achievements on the battlefield by the end of the year will form the basis of any future negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Czech President Petr Pavel said on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11, European Pravda reports.
According to the Pavel, the "window of opportunity" for Ukraine to advance will close by the end of the year. https://kyivindependent.com/czech-president/

⚡️Reznikov: F-16 training coalition of 11 countries officially formed https://kyivindependent.com/reznikov-f-16-training-coalition-of-11-countries-officially-formed/  Those are Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, Luxembourg, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

⚡️Reznikov: France to increase https://kyivindependent.com/reznikov-france-to-increase-defense-aid-for-ukraine-by-187-million/defense aid for Ukraine by $187 million.

The U.K. will provide a $65 million military aid package to Ukraine for purposes of equipment repair and the establishment of a military rehabilitation center, Reuters reported July 11. https://kyivindependent.com/uk-to-send-65-million-in-defense-support/

⚡️ New York Times: Biden weighs https://kyivindependent.com/new-york-times-biden-weighs-sending-atacms/ sending Ukraine ATACMS missiles. [again]

⚡️ UK Defense Ministry: Gerasimov makes https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-gerasimov-makes-first-public-appearance-since-wagner-mutiny/ first public appearance since Wagner mutiny.

⚡️Russia hits https://kyivindependent.com/russia-hits-sumy-oblast-222-times-in-one-day/*Sumy Oblast 225 times in one day. *
The Russian military shelled eight communities along the border of Sumy Oblast on July 11, causing 225 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on Facebook.

https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/ The European Union’s failure to make sure Ukraine has enough ammunition heavily impacts the country’s ability to withstand Russian aggression, according to the cross-border investigation released by the Kyiv Independent and partners.

Ukrainian authorities are investigating over 300 companies over alleged irregularities in how they documented grain trading and tax payments, the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) and RISE Project found.

The prominent Belarusian artist Ales Pushkin died in prison in Belarus "under unclear circumstances," his wife Janina Demuch reported on July 11. https://kyivindependent.com/prominent-belarusian-artist-dies-in-prison/

To learn more about how Russian propaganda twists the facts about Ukrainian history to fuel its war, check out our latest episode s of Ukraine's True History on your YouTube

Average personnel and equipment losses but one Lieutenant General down, highest ranking Russian officer killed in the war so far.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

We are starting a new phase of relations, — Turkish President Erdoğan after meeting with US President Biden on the sidelines of the Vilnius NATO Summit.

On the second day of the Vilnius summit, Zelenskyy will hold bilateral meetings with the USA, Canada, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Japan leaders.
The President will also attend the first constituent meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council.

⚡️ The Norwegian government will increase the size of the military aid fund to Ukraine in 2023 by 2.5 billion Norwegian kroner (almost $240 million) to 10 billion Norwegian kroner (about $950 million)

Britain will provide Ukraine with a new package of military aid, — Reuters.
▫️$65 million for the repair of equipment and the creation of a military rehabilitation center in Ukraine.
▫️thousands of additional ammo for Challenger 2;
▫️more than 70 combat vehicles;
▫️transport for logistical support.

There is an agreement on additional Patriot systems and missiles from Germany, — Volodymyr Zelenskyy, based on the meeting results with Olaf Scholtz.

Training of Ukrainians on the F-16 will begin in August in Denmark; the results may be available in six months, — Acting Minister of Defense of Denmark Troels Lund Poulsen.
"To begin with, we plan to prepare two groups. A total of 10-12 pilots and support personnel will service the planes. It will be about 30-40 people," he said.

Norway will transfer another 1,000 Black Hornet drones for surveillance to Ukraine, which have already successfully proven themselves on the battlefield.
Weighing only 32 grams, these tiny drones are easy to control, suitable for reconnaissance and target detection, and difficult to spot. These drones are particularly well-suited for fighting in urban environments.

Australia will transfer 30 Bushmaster armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.

Ukraine and Sweden signed an agreement on cooperation in the field of defense procurement, — Minister of Defense of Ukraine

Germany has confirmed that it will not hand over long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, the German Defense Minister said.

The Ukrainian combat control and information processing system Delta successfully passed NATO tests, including compatibility with F-16 fighters, — Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov

Finland and Sweden joining NATO will change Europe's security landscape for years to come and further strain relations with Russia, — The Washington Post.
Nordic membership would give the Alliance an edge in the Baltics, providing additional protection for Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
Also in the center of the sea is the Swedish island of Gotland. Stockholm last year announced a boost to its forces there, including expanding its barracks. The two countries' entry will also mean strengthening NATO's presence in the Arctic. Since more than 50% of the coast of the Arctic Ocean belongs to Russia, Moscow will consider this moment a matter of internal security. Sweden and Finland can help monitor the activity of Russian submarines based on the Kola Peninsula.
There are fears that the Arctic will increasingly turn into a disputed area. Russia's border with NATO will also almost double.

Ukraine is working on possibly unblocking Black Sea ports for all types of cargo.
Now on the agenda of the Ukrainian authorities, the main task is to establish a stable and predictable export of all types of goods, which will not depend on the whims and blackmail of Russia, writes CFTS....And if earlier the safety of the passage of ships was guaranteed by the grain agreement, then a new mechanism is needed in case of its termination.
According to the publication, the authorities are considering two main options for the so-called plan B. The first is the restoration of civil shipping of all types of cargo without the consent of Russia but in partnership with Türkiye. The second is the independent restoration of navigation, and here the goal is not for one or two ships to pass but for the corridor to work constantly and stably, which is why the safety component is essential. [Russia's been pissing around with the grain agreement for a while, good that they are developing plans around it]

NATO announced Ukraine's "good progress" in the fight against corruption, an unnamed senior Alliance official said during a conversation with journalists.
"If we are talking about potential membership in NATO or the EU, the fight against corruption, preservation of democracy and institutional stability are the key," he emphasized.

In the center of Vilnius, a flag brought from Bakhmut was raised to the national anthem of Ukraine

Thanks for the update @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar .

An interesting aside - two documentaries ‘The Melting ice of the Artic’ on YouTube are worth a watch, especially pertinent now that NATO looks set to have a larger presence there. It’s some time since I watched them, I think the second one discusses Russian ‘activity’ there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?=GystZlxWQ3o

Thank you for that link, @Positivethought

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Conspirologist Girkin says he believes Prigozhin's mutiny was "successful" and the balance of power is shifting in the Russian leadership with powers backing Prigozhin slowly taking over. He says they want to lead Russia to withdraw from war.

🇳🇱 The Supreme Court of the Netherlands has issued (https://nos.nl/l/2482394) а written reprimand to a judge of the Hague Court of Appeal who tried to influence the MH17 case with a conspiracy theory.

Note, as @Chatillon pointed out, sometimes these infographics are not always entirely accurate.

During the 500 days of full-scale war, Estonia gave Ukraine military aid for almost 60% of its defense budget. Latvia — nearly 50%. Lithuania — more than 40%.

There are already over 527,000 tons of destroyed Russian equipment in Ukraine. It destroys our ecosystem. All this rubbish explodes, burns, rusts and decomposes on Ukrainian soil.

In The Economist's ranking of democracies Hungary is ranked 56th and is included in the category of countries with "Flawed Democracy". Ukraine ranks 87th in the category of "Hybrid Regimes".

The Russian Federation built a replacement for the Moscow cruiser sunk by Ukraine

The new missile carrier "Cyklon" has joined the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. It became the first warship built at the Kerch Shipyard in 25 years. "Cyklon" is armed with 8 "Kalibr"

Very pleased for Sweden getting the green light for NATO

Doesn't sound like significant liberation likely soon without a 'black swan' event which leads to a sudden collapse in the Russian army at this point.

We may yet see a breakthrough but no sign of that being imminent.

It also sounds like it's harder and harder to get out of Russia via Europe due to tightening of the border.

Getting out of Ukraine with a Ukrainian passport also sounds harder too.

It's sounds awful.

Sitting and waiting for liberation doesn't sound appealing either - the front moving closer has its own implications.

I can't imagine how it feels having relatives in that situation.

Ben Wallace's comment to Sky News were more pointed than usual - "The UK and its NATO allies are not an "Amazon" delivery service for weapons to Ukraine and Kyiv might be wise to let its supporters "see gratitude", Britain's defence secretary has said.
In a blunt intervention, Ben Wallace said his "counsel" to the Ukrainians was to keep in mind that they need to persuade some doubting politicians in Washington and other capitals that the tens of billions of pounds they are spending in military aid to their country for its war with Russia is worthwhile."

There seems to be an issue with the speed at which production of western weapons has happened. There is talk of culmination of Ukraine. Increasing production relies on political will. Russia doesn't have this issue. It has a quality and supply issue but no restrictions on political will.

Thus Ukraine has to not piss off NATO. I believe that a German munitions factory has been green lit and the Turkish drone factory in Ukraine has started to be built. But there's a shit load more to be done.

NATO weapons are more expensive and more accurate but Russia may still be able to outsupply that with shit. That's why logistics matter.

Wallace isn't wrong. And tbh, Biden's choice for the next NATO head is somewhat questionable on this score. Defence budgets need upping not just in the UK but elsewhere. There is a crunch on this when stocks run low...

Wallace is fucking idiot, his comments on the charge of the light brigade etc made that very clear an age ago.
Ukraine is doing the suffering, paying the real cost & protecting the West from Russian aggression into the Baltics, Moldova and even Poland.

His comments re amazon are entirely crass and ignorant.

We don't have the means to produce more significantly more ammunition, no factories, staff, machinery, the raw materials, relying on old stock from the Cold War, pathetic really how we have become so unprepared, even 18 months in and we ve done little to rectify this.

Once again relying on the USA.

I'm taking comfort from the fact that NATO did agree to an ongoing commitment and the US/European defence industry is going to ramp up. Which is what we need at a minimum to discourage Putin from dragging out the war.

We need to hammer home to Russia's that it's not up against Ukraine with its pulverised economy. It's up against Ukraine backed by 31 NATO member states comprising 700 million people and 39 trillion in GDP (rough figures).

If wishes were a thing, I 'd be asking for Ukraine to have decent air support as that seems to be the fastest way to end the battles.

Totally agree, Howpo. What a crass and insensitive idiot he has shown himself to be. I hope he wasn’t trying to curry favour with European leaders.

Yes air support is vital, as is getting Russia out of the Black Sea but both things seem to be beyond the West atm.

@Howpo Ben Wallace is far from an idiot. There also appears to be a lot of missing context in your post.

Neither you nor i know him, our opinions differ.

But based on his comments on Balaclava and now Amazon, he comes across as one, perhaps he also knows his limitations as twice now he has avoided standing for Con leader.

there is no additional context required, he didn't need to say it, a multitude of ways to get his point across without comparing weapons demand & supply to shopping on amazon.

Ukraine is doing an amazing job and suffering for us & our security too, maybe emphasis that?

Biden lost his temper with Zelensky in June when discussing one of the many aid packages the US has supplied.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592

I understand the Ukrainian's impatience, but there is a political side of this that has to be managed to maintain popular support for the aid.