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Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

992 replies

MagicFox · 08/07/2023 11:10

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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335
Howpo · 10/07/2023 14:48

Mb76 · 10/07/2023 14:04

Briefly saw in the daily fail that apparently Putin may want to use Wagner to assassinate Zelenskyy - not a reputable source but I wouldn’t rule anything out at this point.

I would be amazed if Putin hasn't been trying to assassinate Zelenskyy for at least 12 months... using all resources at his disposal, inc Wagner, FSB and other groups.

DdraigGoch · 10/07/2023 16:21

Howpo · 10/07/2023 09:54

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Yes there has been small gains but the map of occupied Ukraine is similar to that of 6+ months ago, despite the summer offensive.

We've had talk of several weapons systems and armour that would make the vital difference but they have not, i don't believe the cluster bombs will be any different, for one thing, how many will the USA give them? no other NATO country will supply.

Then they'll be calls for weapon x or y

On benefiting Russia, yes of course & 100% on its up to Ukraine BUT one day this war will end, all wars do so unless UA can push Russia out of Ukraine, then Russia will gain.... Russia pretty much occupied large parts of eastern Ukraine in any case pre feb 22.

As i ve said, Russia can, if it wishes, sustain this war for years to come, the West and Ukraine cannot, especially if we will not do what is required and free up the Black Sea, which only the US Navy can do.

Sanctions just seem to have hardened Russia's resolve and given the large amounts of the world are still trading with them, of limited value.

Ukraines best hope is Russia implodes, whether that would be good for the rest of us, is another matter!

"Small gains"?

Take a look at this map and see how much blue there is. Even today Ukrainian troops have advanced another km south. The summer offensive has barely begun, if you look at the Normandy landings in 1944 it took months to break out from the beach head.

https://liveuamap.com/

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health m...

https://liveuamap.com

StormShadow · 10/07/2023 16:31

Howpo · 10/07/2023 14:48

I would be amazed if Putin hasn't been trying to assassinate Zelenskyy for at least 12 months... using all resources at his disposal, inc Wagner, FSB and other groups.

Quite. As if Putin hasn't been trying to pursue that avenue already. Even he's not so stupid as to realise how important Zelenskyy is.

Howpo · 10/07/2023 16:32

Yes small gains, much of that blue was taken back in the first months of the war as Russia over extended itself.

Kherson was almost certainly a result of Russia wanting to get back to the south bank, where it can defend and of course blow up that dam.

Look, we are victims of PR here, talk talk talk of rebuilding Ukraine, spring offensives, summer ones, long range missiles, tanks & now cluster bombs.. the reality is that Ukraine is in for a very long and drawn out battle, with a very uncertain outcome, as a pp said much will depend on who is the next potus, because shd he decide not to arm Ukraine, the UK PM will back that decision wholeheartedly.

The situations in WW2 and one facing Ukraine are totally dissimilar, not worth comparing the two tbh.

Igotjelly · 10/07/2023 16:39

StormShadow · 10/07/2023 16:31

Quite. As if Putin hasn't been trying to pursue that avenue already. Even he's not so stupid as to realise how important Zelenskyy is.

I’m not so sure, I suspect there would be the fear of turning him into a martyr, same reason he hasn’t been rid of Prigozhin yet.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 16:47

Look, we are victims of PR here, talk talk talk of rebuilding Ukraine, spring offensives, summer ones, long range missiles, tanks & now cluster bombs..

Totally disagree.

It's considerably more complex than that and people on this thread know that. I don't think many of us held out shining hopes for more than two days that Ukraine would sweep the Russians into the sea off Crimea.

We could see that they'd dug in, though we didn't know how deeply. We know that some of the promised armaments are coming slowly. But we also see what Ukraine has managed and on the basis of that, it really isn't hopeless.

The glass isn't empty and cracking, you know, however much you present it like that.

PerkingFaintly · 10/07/2023 16:48

Twenty-five other Wagner commanders in the meeting with Putin?

Anyone else think Prigozhin is about to be wendied* by his buddy Vlad?

(*MN term for someone who insinuates their way into a group of friends – then tries to kick out the person who introduced them.)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 16:51

I think Prigozhin is trying to Wendy Putin =) He just didn't have quite as many friends as he thought he did.

Sooo Gerasimov is still around, Putin is around, Prigozhin is around.

Where's Surovikin?

Igotjelly · 10/07/2023 17:10

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 16:47

Look, we are victims of PR here, talk talk talk of rebuilding Ukraine, spring offensives, summer ones, long range missiles, tanks & now cluster bombs..

Totally disagree.

It's considerably more complex than that and people on this thread know that. I don't think many of us held out shining hopes for more than two days that Ukraine would sweep the Russians into the sea off Crimea.

We could see that they'd dug in, though we didn't know how deeply. We know that some of the promised armaments are coming slowly. But we also see what Ukraine has managed and on the basis of that, it really isn't hopeless.

The glass isn't empty and cracking, you know, however much you present it like that.

100%

L1ttledrummergirl · 10/07/2023 18:05

The situations in WW2 and one facing Ukraine are totally dissimilar, not worth comparing the two tbh.

I agree with this, I think it's more akin to wwi and trench warfare.
On 1 July 1916, the British forces suffered 57,470 casualties, including 19,240 fatalities.

This is what Ukraine is trying to avoid, hence the clusterbombs. Trench warfare isn't pretty.

I think if Zelenskyy is assassinated, there would be repercussions from around the world. I don't think it would be a good move from Russia.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 18:18

Bit less optimistic here ... I fear that things might fall apart for Ukraine if he dies. He's the charismatic face that develops relationships and brings together all the different elements of Ukraine into one man that people can deal with.

I imagine China would be quite notably relieved.

StormShadow · 10/07/2023 18:24

Igotjelly · 10/07/2023 16:39

I’m not so sure, I suspect there would be the fear of turning him into a martyr, same reason he hasn’t been rid of Prigozhin yet.

Nah, Zelenskyy is infinitely more dangerous to Putin's interests alive.

Greenshake · 10/07/2023 18:52

If Zelenskyy is assassinated, that would change the entire face of this situation and I too think it would have worldwide condemnation/repercussions. If that happens, Putin really will have crossed the Rubicon.

MissConductUS · 10/07/2023 18:59

There was an interesting article in the WSJ last week about the Russian diaspora, primarily in Germany, and the diverging views about the war. I've just noticed it today.

The Ukraine War Is Tearing Apart the West’s Largest Russian Diaspora - Moscow’s propaganda targeting Russian speakers has carved a rift through families, pitching people across generations and backgrounds against one another

July 4, 2023 12:01 am ET

BERLIN—When Russia marched into Ukraine last year, it sought to rally Russian speakers abroad in its confrontation with the West. Then the Russian speakers pushed back.

The struggle for the hearts and minds of the Russian diaspora has centered on Germany, home to 3.5 million Russian speakers, the largest such group outside the former Soviet Union and the biggest migrant community in Germany.

Days after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of motorists gathered in large German cities, flying Russian flags in loud parades.

Critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the community were equally quick to act, getting some of the car rallies banned, organizing counterprotests, debunking propaganda online and taking apologists for Putin to court. Now the Kremlin’s critics think they are gaining the upper hand.

“There are fewer [pro-Russia] protests now and that is because German civil society wasn’t silent and German justice is drawing a line,” said Michael Rubin, 50, a Frankfurt politician from Belarus who speaks Russian at home with his Ukrainian wife. “People are still meeting but it is less public, it is more online.”

At the heart of Germany’s Russian-speaking community are the Russlanddeutsche, or “Russia Germans,” ethnic Germans whose ancestors settled in Russia in the 18th century, were persecuted under Stalin and began moving back in large numbers in the 1980s.

There are also ethnic Russians—including spouses of Russlanddeutsche—about 120,000 Jews from the former Soviet Union, citizens of Ukraine, Belarus and other former Soviet countries, and not including roughly one million Ukrainians war refugees, many of whom speak Russian.

The Ukraine war has deeply split the community. In an April survey for national broadcaster Deutsche Welle, research company Dimap asked Russian speakers who was responsible for the war in Ukraine, almost 40% said Russia alone and 27% said that Kyiv and Moscow bore equal responsibility. Some 44% said Germany should intensify its cooperation with Russia.

Michael Rubin bought an old Soviet Volga from Bulgaria, which was used to meet VIP guests. Photo: Anahit Hayrapetyan for The Wall Street Journal

A 2020 study by the Migration Media Service, an information platform created by immigration experts, found that about 88% of immigrants from Russia and their children in Germany either had Russian as their mother tongue or spoke the language fluently. Authorities here have long been concerned about Russian attempts to influence the community.

Natalie Pawlik, the government commissioner for ethnic Germans resettlers, said that since the invasion, Russia had intensified its propaganda effort to undermine Western institutions.

“The Russian government is trying to persuade [Russian speakers in Germany] that they aren’t part of our society,” said Pawlik, herself a Russlanddeutsche. “They are spreading the false narrative that Russian speakers aren’t safe.”

Berlin is working to counter Russian propaganda. It fact-checks fake news in German and Russian, and supports independent journalists who have fled Russia and Belarus. In May, following Moscow’s mass expulsion of German state personnel, Berlin shut down four out of five Russian consulates in the country.

Berlin has said Russia had used its diplomatic representations to stir mistrust of German authorities among Russian speakers, for instance setting up a hotline to report instances of anti-Russian discrimination after the start of the war last year.

“One of the main tasks of any diplomatic mission is to defend the legal interests and rights of compatriots,” the Russian Embassy in Berlin said, adding that it had received reports about physical violence, job dismissals, insults and threats.

Sergej Prokopkin started online Zoom sessions for young ‘Russia Germans.’ Photo: Marzena Skubatz for The Wall Street Journal

The embassy also said that, upon their return to Germany, Russia Germans become “a bridge between Russia” and Germany.

Germany, like other Western countries, has banned Moscow’s foreign-language TV, but channels such as Russia-1 and Russia-24 remain accessible online or via satellite. Social media is also a popular conduit for Kremlin narratives. Several Telegram channels frequented by Russian speakers in Germany celebrate patriotic holidays, relay propaganda and discuss anti-Western conspiracy theories.

Last year, within hours of Russia’s invasion, the IDRH, a Russlanddeutsche group in the state of Hesse, criticized “the illegal attack of the aggressor Putin” and pledged solidarity with Ukraine. The authors moved quickly to pre-empt attempts by the Kremlin to set the narrative among Russian speakers.

“For years Russia has been conducting a massive influence campaign here,” says Albina Nazarenus-Vetter, IDRH’s managing director.

That influence became apparent in 2016 during what is now known as the Lisa incident. That year, protests by Russian speakers popped up in Berlin and elsewhere to denounce authorities’ inaction after the alleged rape of a Russian-speaking girl by a Middle-Eastern refugee in Berlin. The news, which later turned out to be fake, hadn’t appeared in the mainstream German media but had been relentlessly played up on Russian state media.

“It was the Kremlin using anti-immigrant sentiment to tell the Russlanddeutsche, ‘Look, the Germans don’t care about you but we do,’ ” said Nazarenus-Vetter.

Maria Shestakov, who moved with her family to Germany in the 1990s, said she loves “Russia with all my heart.” At home she speaks Russian with her children and grandchildren to pass on her Russian heritage. But she said the war was “none of my business.”

“We must stop sending arms to Ukraine and sit down at the negotiating table,” Shestakov said. “Why exactly is Germany supplying Leopard tanks and many other weapons and what is the reason for such an active position of America…Not Ukraine is at war with Russia, but the whole world is through Ukraine.”

Protests in Germany in 2016 after the alleged rape of a Russian-speaking girl by a refugee in Berlin, which later turned out to be fake. Protesters carry signs saying ‘life without fear.’ Photo: Marc Eich/Zuma Press

Ira Peter, an author and publicist who has written extensively about the community, said she estimates about a third of Russlanddeutsche hold pro-Kremlin views. But she says this isn’t that different from the German public at large.

“There are those who criticize Putin’s regime harshly,” said Roman Friedrich, a Siberia-born Russia German social worker. “But then there is also those who, if not justifying Russia’s actions, then at least talk about double standards of the West…and are dissatisfied with the demonization of Russia.”

A recent court case exposed some of the fault lines.

In June, Ukrainian national and longtime Germany resident Elena Kolbasnikova was fined 900 euros, equivalent to about $980, by a Cologne court for public comments defending Russia’s actions, which the court said could disturb the peace. Kolbasnikova’s lawyer said she would appeal the verdict.

The case has exacerbated the apprehension some Russian speakers say they feel about speaking out or revealing their heritage. On a recent morning at the Mix Markt in northeast Berlin—a supermarket offering Russian products such as salmon caviar and kvass, a soft drink made of fermented bread—some shoppers said they feared discrimination.

“I’m not a supporter of any wars, but there are always two sides to every conflict and I don’t think people in Germany really understand the Russian side,” said Igor, who would only give his first name. “But best not to talk about such things nowadays.”

Older people are particularly susceptible to Russian propaganda, said Edwin Warkentin, head of the cultural department of Russia Germans at the Museum of Russian-German Cultural History in Detmold.

“The older generations have certain nostalgic feelings about Russia or the post-Soviet space because they spent their youth there,” said Warkentin, who moved to Germany in the 1990s from today’s Kazakhstan.

Dimitry Peters, 35, a Frankfurt-based economist whose family left Murmansk in 1995, said socioeconomic fault lines also account for how some people seem to be more susceptible to the Kremlin’s message.

“Many people who came in the late 80s experienced a loss of status. That created grievances and these are fertile grounds for propaganda.”

Some Russian speakers have taken to the law to push back against pro-Kremlin forces. One activist who declined to be named said he was observing German pro-Russian Telegram channels and translating hate-speech posts, some of which he passed to the police. He said about two thirds of tips he had passed to the authorities had resulted in criminal proceedings.

Some try to push back at a more personal level. Shortly after the invasion last year, Sergej Prokopkin, a 38-year-old legal trainee in Berlin who moved to Germany with his parents over two decades ago, started online Zoom sessions for young Russian-Germans whose families were pro-Putin, which created conflicts in their families.

And others still take the fight to the street. After the start of the war, Rubin, the Frankfurt politician from Belarus, watched as small pro-Russian car parades multiplied across Germany. He was determined to keep such convoys out of his city.

Rubin got together with other Russian speakers and Kyiv supporters and founded a pressure group that lobbied successfully for Frankfurt to ban a pro-Russian car rally in April last year. When the city authorized the pro-Russian protesters to gather on a square instead, Rubin and his allies met there beforehand and plastered the plaza with pro-Ukrainian posters.

“That,” he said, “was our first win.”

The Ukraine War Is Tearing Apart the West’s Largest Russian Diaspora

Moscow’s propaganda targeting Russian speakers has carved a rift through families, pitching people across generations and backgrounds against one another.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-ukraine-war-is-tearing-apart-the-wests-largest-russian-diaspora-283839bd?mod=world_major_1_pos8

minsmum · 10/07/2023 19:06

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1678427484793044996 The Finnish minister for European affairs plays Chervona Kalyna on the cello in memory of the people who have died

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1678427484793044996

Chatillon · 10/07/2023 19:27

L1ttledrummergirl · 10/07/2023 18:05

The situations in WW2 and one facing Ukraine are totally dissimilar, not worth comparing the two tbh.

I agree with this, I think it's more akin to wwi and trench warfare.
On 1 July 1916, the British forces suffered 57,470 casualties, including 19,240 fatalities.

This is what Ukraine is trying to avoid, hence the clusterbombs. Trench warfare isn't pretty.

I think if Zelenskyy is assassinated, there would be repercussions from around the world. I don't think it would be a good move from Russia.

I think it is more akin to the Iran / Iraq war from between 1980 and 1988. Two years of war followed by six years of stalemate. Dug in, armies increasing to 200%-300% original size. Equipment supplied from different countries.

Mass call up of non-professional civilians. Trench warfare and very much hand-to-hand. Unknown quantities of dead on both sides, estimates from 400,000 to 1,000,000.

I remember every day for months if not years it was the main news item, particularly 1984 IIRC. Who born before 1970 has not heard of Kharg Island?

From Wikipedia:

The Iranian generals wanted to launch an all-out attack on Baghdad and seize it before the weapon shortages continued to manifest further.

Sound familiar? And -

Instead, that was rejected as being unfeasible and the decision was made to capture one area of Iraq after the other in the hopes that a series of blows delivered foremost by the Revolutionary Guards Corps would force a political solution to the war (including Iraq withdrawing completely from the disputed territories along the border).

The Iranians planned their attack in southern Iraq, near Basra. Called Operation Ramadan, it involved over 180,000 troops from both sides, and was one of the largest land battles since World War II. Iranian strategy dictated that they launch their primary attack on the weakest point of the Iraqi lines; however, the Iraqis were informed of Iran's battle plans and moved all of their forces to the area the Iranians planned to attack. The Iraqis were equipped with tear gas to use against the enemy, which would be the first major use of chemical warfare during the conflict, throwing an entire attacking division into chaos.

And this also sounds familiar -

Faced with their recent defeats in al-Faw and Mehran, Iraq appeared to be losing the war. Iraq's generals, angered by Saddam's interference, threatened a full-scale mutiny against the Ba'ath Party unless they were allowed to conduct operations freely. In one of the few times during his career, Saddam gave in to the demands of his generals.

This too -

While it was not obvious to foreign observers, the Iranian public had become increasingly war-weary and disillusioned with the fighting, and relatively few volunteers joined the fight in 1987–88. Because the Iranian war effort relied on popular mobilization, their military strength actually declined, and Iran was unable to launch any major offensives after Karbala-5. As a result, for the first time since 1982, the momentum of the fighting shifted towards the regular army. Since the regular army was conscription based, it made the war even less popular. Many Iranians began to try to escape the conflict.

Worth a read if anyone has a spare evening. There are similarities across both sides now as there were then. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Iraq_War

Operation Ramadan - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ramadan

RedToothBrush · 10/07/2023 19:55

A counter to the 'ukraine would fall apart if Zelenskyy died' narrative.

Zelenskyy would become a martyr. A symbol. One which might actually cause greater zeal and determination rather than less.

Howpo · 10/07/2023 20:07

@Chatillon Yes thats exactly what i would fear, though with little or no Western support (Trump wins in US) Ukraine would fold.

On Zelenskyy, Ukraine needs leadership, which he provides by the bucketful, however, dead, he would just be a martyr, not a leader, all depends on who is in the wings?

Hope n pray this will never happen.

I think history will judge him as one of the worlds greatest war time leaders of all time, if it hasn't already & Putin as just another Hitler/Stalin/Pol Pot, an evil insane despot.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 20:16

yes, and one of his better qualities is that he doesn't try to run the war - he leaves that to General Zaluzhny.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 20:21

minsmum · 10/07/2023 19:06

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1678427484793044996 The Finnish minister for European affairs plays Chervona Kalyna on the cello in memory of the people who have died

Ow @minsmum

moving.

minsmum · 10/07/2023 20:24

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1678468700972929025 Commander of the Krasnador submarine assassinated

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1678468700972929025

minsmum · 10/07/2023 20:30

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1678453035951955986 remember the put sunflower seeds in your pockets lady. They say she is in Russian custody and being charged

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1678453035951955986

blueshoes · 10/07/2023 20:58

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 10/07/2023 20:21

Ow @minsmum

moving.

We stand by you. Finland supports you. Ukraine will prevail.

Amen 🇺🇦

MissConductUS · 10/07/2023 21:04

It's been reported on Twitter that Turkey will agree to allow Sweden to join NATO.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1678494472827465751

I wonder what the bribe was. F-16s?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1678494472827465751

RedToothBrush · 10/07/2023 21:23

Zelenskyy has tweeted the following:

The security reality here on NATO's eastern flank depends on Ukraine. When we applied to join NATO, we were frank: Ukraine is de facto already in the Alliance. Our weapons are the weapons of the Alliance. Our values are what the Alliance believes in. Our defense is the very element of the formula of Europe that makes it united, free and peaceful.
Vilnius must confirm all this.
We are still working on the wording, that is, on the specific words of such confirmation, but we already understand the fact that Ukraine will be in the Alliance, and we are working to make the algorithm for gaining membership as clear and fast as possible. Our work for this - the work of the entire Ukrainian team - will continue each and every minute of these days.

Ostap Yarysh AT ostapyarysh
Zelensky ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit: We are still working on the wording, but we already understand that Ukraine will be in the Alliance, and we are working to make the algorithm for gaining membership as clear and fast as possible.