Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

--

Agreed thread guidance:

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Yes, lol, i'm colour blind!

United24 Media Telegram

Since the beginning of the counteroffensive in the Melitopol and Berdiansk directions, 169 km² have been liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, — General Staff.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Gerasimov made his first contact since Prigozhin's rebellion.
A video of him was published today by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Ukraine's entry into NATO was supported by: 23/31 countries!
8 left: Albania, UK, Hungary, Greece, Luxembourg, USA, Turkey*, Croatia.
but
U.S. President Joe Biden has said that Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership. The war must end before the Alliance can consider Ukraine's membership.The war must end before the Alliance can consider Ukraine's membership.

After the rebellion, Prigozhin met with Putin in the Kremlin, and the leader of the Wagner PMC is currently in Moscow, the French publication Libération writes https://www.liberation.fr/international/europe/apres-deux-semaines-de-flou-evgueni-prigojine-se-trouve-a-moscou-20230707_LC26ATKX2BHFXMKAKX43X5S5RQ/ citing sources in Western intelligence [is this a reliable publication, @notimagain ?]

NATO countries are strengthening Lithuania's defense for the duration of the Vilnius summit on July 11-12. A thousand troops have been deployed to the country to reinforce the border, Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems, aircraft, Caesar self-propelled howitzers, and more.
As Vilnius is located 32 km from Belarus, Patriot was installed in the city itself.

New military aid to Ukraine is being prepared - French Foreign Minister

Children in the occupied territories are promised money for Russian passports - National Resistance Center
In this way, the enemy hopes to fulfill the plan to passportize the region. The occupiers also resort to abductions and torture of people for their refusal to receive Russian passports. In particular, such cases were recorded in Enerhodar

🇺🇸The United States said (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/07/09/press-gaggle-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-en-route-london-united-kingdom/) it did not participate in the release of Azovstal's commanders and does not know the motivation of Turkish President Recep Erdogan in his decision to release the soldiers to Ukraine.

When the full-scale Russian invasion began, the Ukrainian army was several times smaller than the Russian one. That is why Ukraine was predicted to lose quickly: analysts counted the number of people and weapons, but could not consider fighting spirit, desire to defend own country, command skills. This cannot be translated into the language of mathematics.

"Wagner" cemetery in the Krasnodar
At the end of December, there were 48 graves in the cemetery, on July 8 there were already 824..

"Whoever controls Zmiinyi Island controls the course of world history" - Alexander Dugin, ideologist of the Russian world
Zelensky:

@Howpo
The cluster bombs wont make any difference, just as all the other stuff we ve given hasn't pushed Russia back either, they spent the last months digging in and like in WW1, will prove v difficult to break through, just small changes to the front line.

Don't really have any answers, other than peace talks and ultimately giving land to Russia

What is your basis for saying cluster bombs won't make any difference?

Western aid has made it possible for Ukraine to free Kharkiv and Kherson, so the statement 'as all the other stuff we ve given hasn't pushed Russia back either'' is factually ... very ... incorrect.

Peace talks are up to Ukraine and so far they say No. Specially since peace talks would do nothing but benefit Russia.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Yes there has been small gains but the map of occupied Ukraine is similar to that of 6+ months ago, despite the summer offensive.

We've had talk of several weapons systems and armour that would make the vital difference but they have not, i don't believe the cluster bombs will be any different, for one thing, how many will the USA give them? no other NATO country will supply.

Then they'll be calls for weapon x or y

On benefiting Russia, yes of course & 100% on its up to Ukraine BUT one day this war will end, all wars do so unless UA can push Russia out of Ukraine, then Russia will gain.... Russia pretty much occupied large parts of eastern Ukraine in any case pre feb 22.

As i ve said, Russia can, if it wishes, sustain this war for years to come, the West and Ukraine cannot, especially if we will not do what is required and free up the Black Sea, which only the US Navy can do.

Sanctions just seem to have hardened Russia's resolve and given the large amounts of the world are still trading with them, of limited value.

Ukraines best hope is Russia implodes, whether that would be good for the rest of us, is another matter!

... are you always so negative?

In other news, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/9/us-says-it-killed-isil-leader-osama-al-muhajer-in-drone-strike

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Re Liberation and..is this a reliable publication,?

Yep it's OK as long as you use the usual filters.

It has an interesting history (founded by amongst others, Jean-Paul Sartre in the early '70s) ...was originally very left wing in it's POV, these days regarded as more centre left....always worth bearing in mind when reading

I dip into it occasionally for the sake of balance verses the more right wing Le Figaro...

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Your Infographic table showing Russia's strength does not tally with the cumulative daily losses, unless I am missing something.

The Infographic segregates equipment totals between the three forces, but even so the two sources when compared indicate that Russia has lost the following proportions of equipment:

APV - 8k/20.3k - 40%
Artillery - 4.4k/6.5k - 68%
Tanks - 4k/3.4k - 117%

APV's is a possibility and if there is some high obsolescence at the beginning of the war it is good news. Troops are exposed in many ways without APVs.

Artillery I doubt and 6.5k pieces seems a bit low, though not impossible if 2/3 or more were rusting hulks. Two thousand pieces can still do a lot of damage against a counter attack and may explain the recent focus on getting those numbers down. That is really important news which should not be underestimated, particularly these days where drones act as FOPs in flat landscapes.

Tanks - that's ambitious by any stretch. I realise the same tanks might be getting hit twice, but then that would indicate the daily updates are based on strikes rather than equipment put out of action.

Just an observation, nothing more.

Not at all, i just believe the future for Ukraine is bleak, i don't hold your unrealistic optimism.

At the risk of repeating myself, Russia can and will sustain this war for many years to come & what will be left of Ukraine?

Once again, Ukraine has been given many weapons systems that promised to drive the Russians out but didn't.

This war is heading for a WW1 trench style stalemate but with a far great level of destruction due to long range weapons.

The cluster bombs wont make any difference, just as all the other stuff we ve given hasn't pushed Russia back either, they spent the last months digging in and like in WW1, will prove v difficult to break through, just small changes to the front line.

I think we all need to recognise most of the information we might like to know will not be forthcoming for a long time, even after the war ends.

The provision of cluster bombs is something that has manifested itself rather recently and very quickly. This should not be regarded as a knee-jerk or panic to lack of success on the battlefield. It may be, but it is not a given. It could equally be an opportunity has been foreseen to use these tactically on the battlefield. There are so many variables in war that some of the tactical interactions do not become known until they are needed. Necessity is the mother of invention.

Combined with significant armoured equipment losses, I can see how cluster weapons could save Ukrainian soldiers' lives in significant numbers as retaking land progresses.

Once again, Ukraine has been given many weapons systems that promised to drive the Russians out but didn't.

You cannot possibly know this at this point in time.

@Chatillon well spotted, indeed a lot doesn't add up. Regarding artillery I wonder if the original figures were inaccurate as a lot of the older systems were regarded as out of use, but have been rolled into action?

We do not actually know what the Ukrainian figures are based on. Oryx works from visual confirmation, -excluding- certain circumstances such as a hit on a mass-storage area (they sometimes can't tell how much has actually been destroyed so they don't use it) but at this stage we just don't know what the Ukrainian estimates are based on. I'm not clear whether the figures mean 'destroyed' or 'put out of action but still repairable' either.

So we've moved from "Western help achieved nothing" to "There hasn't been much territory regained in the last 6 months? Well, it's something.

I've got no idea what will happen - while I'm 100% behind Ukraine gettings its freedom I simply don't know.

But it would be lovely if you could acknowledge that:-

1. the 3 day takover of Kyiv failed
2. Kharkiv and Kherson have been freed and are (relatively) safe (apart from bombings)
3. Ukraine has rallied and improved massively
4. there are still 6, I think, fresh and rested battallions that are waiting to be unleashed.

I have faith that Zalhuzhny isn't going to waste his troops until he believes he can achieve things. He's not exactly proven incompetent or a fool so far.

Artillery - Russia had 18,000 - 22,000 pieces at the beginning of the war. Take the lower figure, then cut it in two for obsolete kit. That leaves 9,000 pieces of different calibre and type. Probably not too far off, but not 6.5k.

Truth is nobody really knows. Who really knows what the effect would be if the US were to turn its entire navy and fleet air arm into a conflict in the Pacific? We just don't know with the fog of war and data what would really happen.

What we will be learning is how to use and adapt drones for future conflicts. This is a war where drones come into their fore as well as military leadership.

We also now know the British army is woefully too light at 70,000 troops. I am not sure the public generally grasps that concept yet though. Our military know-how and systems, handed down the generations and immensely effective is in real danger of extinction.

We also now know the British army is woefully too light at 70,000 troops. I am not sure the public generally grasps that concept yet though. Our military know-how and systems, handed down the generations and immensely effective is in real danger of extinction.

The decision making here has been crazy. Just crazy.

I do not understand why one of the richest nations in the world has cut its armed forces to the bone and then into the marrow.

The UK collects £800 billion in tax revenue annually. This excludes things like council tax, business rates.

The cost of another aircraft carrier is collected between now and 6am on Wednesday morning. Just one more of the 60 F35s we still need could be paid for in the next 75 minutes.

Our Government over the last 13 years needs to be held accountable for where all the money is going. And the next one.

^100% ... See? we can agree :)

@Howpo

"This war is heading for a WW1 trench style stalemate but with a far great level of destruction due to long range weapons."

++++

At this stage of the Spring/ Summer counter offensive I believe it is simply too early to make that statement.

However if no significant progress has been made by Ukraine by winter then I can where you are coming from.

There is a risk that both Ukraine and Russia are both too strong to be defeated but both too weak to win against each other. This would degenerate into a drawn out WW1 type attritional conflict.

There is a further risk to continued US support if Trump wins the next US election. If Biden or De Santis wins then continued US support is more likely.

In defence spending the challenge is that state / public sector pensions, the NHS and debt interest payments are each year taking a bigger and bigger slice of Government spending.

But I agree with @Howpo and @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar that it is an extremely dangerous strategy to have cut defence spending so low. Also more shocking is that comparatively the UK is one of the few European countries that spends the 2% minimum of GDP on defence that NATO insists on.

Heh, good!

Great to see Biden stood with the King at Windsor. I am pleased to have him here.

Oryx works from visual confirmation,

Oryx has been on of the more credible sources but for info sadly it's supposedly closing down in the near future....

It seems to have been mainly the work of one dedicated individual and they can no longer devote time to the project.

Yeah, October isn't it :(

In other news apparently Putin and Prigozhin met! 25 wagner commanders met with Putin. Its on the BBC.

Last time we had a US president visit Windsor castle I took my daughter (she was 8 at the time) to the small protest outside the castle. That was Trump for clarity

Briefly saw in the daily fail that apparently Putin may want to use Wagner to assassinate Zelenskyy - not a reputable source but I wouldn’t rule anything out at this point.