Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Ill catch up with the UNITED24 and Live: Ukraine reports tomorrow; maybe it's the heat but under the weather today

Ducks, sorry to hear that. Hope you feel better soon.

Yes @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

but who’s values? Where is the Russian Orthodox Church on this? They have a voice, don’t they and I can’t help but feel somehow they support Putin as he sees them as ‘traditional’ Rus

The church is part of the state apparatus. If the state were to collapse the church would keep things ticking over, with icons and bling.

Have a look at Patriarch Kirill's life that goes beyond a brief bio, especially in the later Soviet era, delegate to the WCC etc.

@MMBaranova

thats very interesting- just read the wiki

The Church as an institution under early and high Communism was supressed, trashed, and pretty much obliterated. From Khrushchev there's some easing of things. By Gorbachev there's a functioning organisation that is then more and more closely aligned with Putinism as the years pass.

An interesting question is where do your clergy come from, especially those further up the hierarchy, as re-emergence happens? Is it the underground priests or questionable characters provided / 'magicked' by the regime? Once up and running new clerics come on stream as the decades pass.

It's a lot more complex than this, but suffice it to say that the authenticity of some in the hierarchy has been questioned.

Very much so. ArchPatriarch Kirill supports the war to the point of saying that if a Russian soldier dies in the war, his sins are washed away in blood.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/28/patriarch-kirill-putin-ally-faces-backlash

"“So according to him, the war is not about political aims or influence, but about spiritual, or, as he put it, ‘metaphysical’ aims. Thus, he gives the official Russian point of view a theological underpinning.”
Putin and the patriarch enjoy close ties, with Patriarch Kirill describing Putin’s 2012 election victory as a “miracle of God”.

Ambition In 2007 Kirill stated his goal of establishing a global Eastern Orthodox movement in Greece, Cyprus, Ukraine, Belarus, various Balkan states, Georgia, Armenia, and Moldova.[60] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriarch_Kirill_of_Moscow#Public_controversies

"In response, Kirill criticised the statement [that Bulgaria thanks all ethnicities that helped them in their struggle for freedom fro the Ottomans] and said Bulgarians should only thank Russia, not anyone else, and that there was no place for "false interpretations of history"

There is also a belief in some quarters that he's KGB.

Some Russian Orthodox priests have stood out agianst the war actually. Some are prosecuted. I think, iirc, that in fact Kirill's second or third in command left for this reason.

Frankly Putin wouldn't tolerate any large organisation in Russia that isn't under his control. The judiciary has also been hollowed out into a lapdog sitting panting at his feet waiting for orders, according to what I've read.

Late check in

Checking in, thanks for the new thread @MagicFox

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar sorry to hear you are unwell and hope you feel better soon

This war and all the atrocities are directly blessed by Kirill and Russian Orthodox Church. It’s despicable.

Intermarium 24 AT intermarium24
#BREAKING Turkey appears to have run out of patience. it has just announced that the Turkish Navy will protect ships in the Black Sea from Russian navy/terrorists, even if Russia withdraws from the grain deal.

This isn't confirmed yet and this report appears to have come from Ukrainian sources, so offering a pinch of salt with this report.

It seems to be being suggested that Turkey want to extend the deal for at least another 3 months but Russia is resisting. Apparently Erdogan promised Zelensky when he visited this week that Turkey would defend ships if Russia don't play ball.

Either way, this seems an interesting story to be out there - regardless of whether it is indeed authentic or not, because there clearly is being a big push on this involving Turkish intervention one way or another...

Although Erdogan can seem to be changeable, he is now confirmed in power. There's a default ongoing geopolitical tussle on various levels and over different issues. Azerbaijan - Armenia for instance.

But we should not be surprised at this. Russia has been run along Mafia lines for at least two decades. Many well-informed investment and private equity funds never went there for that reason. Despite the most massive natural resources on the planet.

I have said this before, but more money has been spent by oligarchs on luxury yachts than was reinvested in the Northern Fleet since 1995. Russia will reap what it sows in so many ways. Putin's pigeons will come home to roost, though it will take some time. God only knows what follows next.

This Chat is 43,137 posts long, duly diligent, focused and with some greatly articulated conclusions.

Are there one or two things underpinning all of this, though. Russia wants Ukraine for its land and resources, yes? So, it’s the start of an attempt to pull back all the old soviet states for? Resources, head count ?

I watched the fictitious Norwegian drama ‘Occupied’ when it came out. It documented very well the stealth moves Russia made when Norway ‘banned’ oil once it discovered a viable alternative ( all fictitious btw) It was quite revealing and prescient ( defunded by Norwegian broadcaster. I think).

So, natural resources are a factor but what else?

So, natural resources are a factor but what else?

Russia wants their empire back...and also, as far as I can work out from knowledgeable posters on this thread, and the likes of Timothy Snyder, there's a (?Muscovy) mindset that simply regards Ukraine as being part of a greater Russia, not an independent state.

@RedToothBrush that's interesting especially coming on the tail of Turkey allowing the Azov commanders to return with Zelenski

@LeonardCohensRaincoat

"So, natural resources are a factor but what else?"

++++

You have understand that Russia has always had a paranoia about both the West and the fear of being attacked , with some actual attacks such as Napoleon, Ottoman slave raids and Hitler to back this up.

In addition Russian leaders from the Tsars to Stalin to more recently Putin have actively fed this paranoia and victim culture to stay in power. Nothing brings the populace together like an external enemy. And we can see the same tactic used in North Korea and previously in Cuba.

Russia fears being encircled by the West and also fears successful countries on its border that would lead to Russians then questioning how their own country is run.

Russia has always seen Ukraine as in their sphere of influence as well as providing a useful buffer country in the event of an attack (much like the old Warsaw Pact did). The fact that Ukrainians want their country's future and identity to be more than just their neighbours defence buffer doesn't matter to Russia.

Ukraine from its initial independence was split in its allegiances to Russia or the West. Ironically the invasion has settled this split and united Ukrainians and as a permanent shift moved Ukraine much closer to the West.

Sorry meant to add this link:

theconversation.com/amp/deep-rooted-russian-fear-of-the-west-has-fuelled-putins-invasion-of-ukraine-178351

I think there's a aggressor / victim mentality too and a certain cruelty. In the wars near the Black Sea, the deliberate cruelty was extreme. What happened to the Circassians is stomach turning.

Just after the war started I was reading Anthony Beevor Russia 1917-1921, what was happening then to the general population and prisoners is eerily similar to how the Russians are conducting themselves now. Reports say that Beevor has PTSD from the research he did

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-9-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 9.
• The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Ukrainian forces are attempting to soften Russian defenses before liberating territory, accepting a slower pace of advance.
• US President Joe Biden stated that Ukraine cannot join NATO until Russia’s war in Ukraine is over.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed Turkey’s decision to allow the release of five Ukrainian commanders involved in the defense of the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on July 9.
• The Russian ultranationalist community continued to blame the Kremlin for trusting Turkey to uphold the deal and to keep Azovstal defenders in Turkey.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service’s (FSB) Service for the Protection of the Constitutional Order (UZKS) is deliberately censoring him.
• Central African Republic (CAR) Presidental Spokesperson Albert Yaloke Mokpem stated on July 8 that Wagner Group personnel leaving CAR are conducting rotations and are not withdrawing.
• Unknown persons leaked an image of what appears to be the Wagner Group’s founding charter on July 9, possibly to present the Wagner Group as a professional organization.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to not rapidly dispose of the Wagner Group and prosecute rebellion participants is placing himself and his subordinates in an awkward position.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Svatove and south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and Russian forces advanced as of July 9.
• Ukrainian forces continued to advance in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia oblasts administrative border area, and continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces reportedly continued to reestablish previously flooded positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly accepting Wagner Group mercenaries for contract service with the Russian MoD in Molkino, Krasnodar Krai. [!!!]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️WSJ: Poland secretly sent about a dozen Mi-24 helicopters https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-poland-sent-a-dozen-mi-24-helicopters-to-ukraine/ to Ukraine.

A group of Western allies, including the U.S., the U.K., France, and Germany are engaged in "frantic, last-minute" negotiations over a security assurance declaration for Ukraine ahead of the Vilnius NATO summit, Politico reported. https://kyivindependent.com/politico-western-allies-hold-frantic-last-minute-talks-on-ukraine-ahead-of-nato-summit/

Investigation: EU inability to ramp up production behind acute ammunition shortages in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-eu-inability-to-ramp-up-production-behind-acute-ammunition-shortages-in-ukraine/

⚡️Erdogan wants to extend grain deal https://kyivindependent.com/erdogan-wants-to-extend-grain-deal-for-another-month/ for another 3 months. The Black Sea Grain Initiative is due to expire on July 18.

⚡️Official: Ukrainian troops advance https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-troops-advance-south-of-bakhmut/ south of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian forces have continued their counteroffensive and advanced in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff reported on July 9. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukrainian-forces-advance-in-two-directions-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine liberates https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-liberates-14-square-kilometers-over-past-week/14 square kilometers over past week.

⚡️Russian proxy claims cruise missile shot down https://kyivindependent.com/russian-proxies-claim-cruise-missile-shot-down-in-occupied-crimea/ in occupied Crimea.

⚡️Melitopol mayor Fedorov says Russians are mining https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-mine-critical-infrastructure-in-zaporizhzhia/ critical infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, incl a water main that supplies the town with drinking water. He said electrical grids were also mined, leaving the town's power and water supplies vulnerable

⚡️Austrian energy company OMV to continue importing Russian gas https://kyivindependent.com/austrian-energy-company-omv-to-continue-import-russian-gas/

⚡️Russia shells https://kyivindependent.com/russia-shells-kherson-oblast-injures-director-of-local-hospital/ Kherson Oblast, injures head of local hospital.

⚡️Ukrainian Elina Svitolina defeats Belarusian for spot in Wimbledon quarterfinals. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-tenissist/

Russian attacks have killed over 170 civilians and destroyed more than 400 residential buildings in Kyiv since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Kyiv Mayor Vitalii Klitschko said in a televised interview on July 9. https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-more-than-170-civilians-killed-in-kyiv-by-russian-attacks/

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said that Russia should attack Ukrainian nuclear power plants and nuclear facilities in Eastern Europe if an alleged Ukrainian attack on a Russian nuclear plant is confirmed. https://kyivindependent.com/medvedev-threatens-eastern-european-countries-with-strikes-on-nuclear-facilities-and-three-ukrainian-nuclear-power-plants/ [wonder how many bottles of vodka he'd downed]

Very quiet day yesterday

I think the origin aims of the war are long gone now for Russia, its about pride, win at all costs and whatever the devastation/loss of life, worryingly, the population seem to back Putin on this too.

I have always feared what we have now, a stalemate, Russia able to produce an endless supply of "dumb" weapons and a limited supply of smart ones, aided by India and China among others, ironic really as the West seeks to improve relations with both inc FTA's.

On calls for the west to up production of artillery etc, fine apart from we don't even have the factories/people available to do this! and the extra we produce, the Russians can produce many times more.

The cluster bombs wont make any difference, just as all the other stuff we ve given hasn't pushed Russia back either, they spent the last months digging in and like in WW1, will prove v difficult to break through, just small changes to the front line.

Don't really have any answers, other than peace talks and ultimately giving land to Russia...which wouldn't be my choice... i'd open up the Red Sea by force and stop Russia using it as a means to attack Ukraine but that doesn't appear to be an option... for now.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

"Ukraine has given guarantees to the United States that it will not use cluster munitions received from allies on Russian territory," the White House reiterated.

The German authorities are generally against using cluster munitions, but in the case of Ukraine it is about protecting one's own territory, said Steffen Hebestreit, a spokesman for the federal government.
"In this case, we are dealing with a special situation: Ukraine uses its ammunition to protect its own civilian population. We are talking about the actions of its own government to liberate its own territory," the spokesman said.
He also urged not to forget that "Russia has already massively used cluster munitions in the war of aggression against Ukraine."

The budget committee of the German parliament approved the purchase of additional ammunition for the Panzerhaubitze 2000, the Leopard 2 battle tank, and the Puma infantry fighting vehicle, which will be sent to support the Bundeswehr's own needs and support Ukraine.

The occupiers hit Orikhiv with air bombs during the delivery of humanitarian aid, — Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration
According to the head of the Regional Military Administration Malashko, 4 people died due to the strike. Another 11 residents were hospitalized.

Zelenskyy does not believe in the possibility of the Russian Federation using nuclear weapons, — ABS News.
At the same time, the president, referring to intelligence data, warned that Russia could replace the nuclear power plant to set off an explosion that would help stop the advance of the Armed Forces on the battlefield.
"Are there explosives on the site? Yes. Can the IAEA see the explosives now? No. Are there enough unbiased people there to make any conclusions about how mined the site is? No."

The L119 howitzer unit of the 80th air assault brigade is providing fire support for the units that are advancing on the outskirsts of Klischiivka, the last village on the way to Bakhmut.

Ukraine and Türkiye signed a memorandum on the development of UAV production in Ukraine [Bayraktar]

Ukraine produced more projectiles in June than in the whole of last year, — Kamyshin in an interview with Bloomberg
Bloomberg notes that now Ukrainian ammunition production is picking up pace, albeit from a low base. Ukrainian anti-tank complexes "Stugna-P" also began to be produced faster. The next priority is to increase the production of tanks and armored vehicles, but according to Kamyshin, this may happen in 3-6 months

Patron the dog came under fire during demining in the Balaklia district, the Balaklia City Military Administration reported.
The rescuers moved the dog to the shelter in time.

The women's volleyball team of Ukraine won the Golden Euroleague

The head of the Spanish Ministry of Defense visited the field hospital that will be handed over to Ukraine

The cluster artillery projectiles that the USA will send to Ukraine have a flight range of ~29 km.
If fired from a distance of 7-10 km from the current front line, Ukraine can reach 100% of the 1st line of Russian trench fortifications and 78% of the 2nd line of trench fortifications.

Black Sea? @Howpo