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Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

992 replies

MagicFox · 08/07/2023 11:10

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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335
Hillsmakeyoustrong · 28/07/2023 21:35

Thanks @notimagain and @MissConducUS for explaining what they are exactly dealing with. Does anyone know about drones that are controlled via goggles as opposed to laptops? What are the true benefits? The last thing I am is technical but between drone hunting and being on the end of a Russian cyber attack on our health rostering system last year, I feel this war is a weird hybrid of WW1 and the Matrix.

notimagain · 29/07/2023 06:54

MissConductUS · 28/07/2023 19:54

I'm just speculating here but in the case of something like the Ka-52 using the "launching undesignated" option the operator ( who hasn't got to worry about flying) having popped off the missile towards a general area will possibly has to do not much more than watch the screen, spot a target (which may be very obvious in IR) move a cursor to overlay that target and click a mouse.... job done.

This is a bit out of my lane, but my assumption is that target designation can be done while the missile is in flight, then the optical and thermal sensors control the navigation to impact. So you could launch at 15k then designate at 2k when you have a clear view that it's a tank, not a tractor.

Exactly, that's my understanding from what I've seen in a couple of sources.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 29/07/2023 08:59

minsmum · 28/07/2023 10:24

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1684625054775070720 Not sure if this has been seen already. Russian cruise ship forced to leave Georgian port after protests, sent off with Ukrainian national anthem played at them

That's made me cry. Well done Georgia.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 11:30

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-28-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on July 28.
  • Russian naval posturing in the Black Sea likely aims to impose a de facto blockade on Ukrainian ports without committing the Black Sea Fleet to the enforcement of a naval blockade.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassure African partner states that Russia will maintain its economic and security commitments during the second day of the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg.
  • The Kremlin continues to display little interest in an unspecific peace plan focused on eliminating disruptions to international trade proposed by African heads of state.
  • Russian authorities may be increasingly concerned about how the Russian electorate views the war ahead of regional elections in September 2023 and the Russian presidential election in 2024.
  • Politico reported that the first batch of refurbished US Abrams tanks will likely arrive in Ukraine in September.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on July 28 and made advances in certain areas.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 28 and have reportedly advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.
  • The Russian Federation Council approved measures allowing the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to receive heavy military equipment and increasing the upper limit of the conscription age range from 27 years old to 30 years old.
  • Russian authorities continue to deport Ukrainian teenagers to Russia under the guise of summer camp programs.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 11:45

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️African Union calls for restoration https://kyivindependent.com/egyptian-president-wants-russia-to-revive-black-sea-grain-deal/ Black Sea grain deal.

⚡️Bloomberg: Romania to expand capacity https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-romania-expands-capacity-of-ukrainian-grain-transit-route/ for Ukrainian grain transit.

⚡️Lull observed with Russia's military aviation on front line kyivindependent.com/russian-sources-claim-explosion-in-taganrog-rostov-oblast/

⚡️Russian media report (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-sources-claim-explosion-in-taganrog-rostov-oblast/) explosions in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast

⚡️Zelensky: Russian attack hit SBU building, apartment building in Dnipro. https://kyivindependent.com/update-4/

⚡️Energoatom: Russia kidnaps, tortures Zaporizhzhia https://kyivindependent.com/energoatom-russia-kidnapped-tortured-employee/ nuclear plant engineer engineer Serhii Potynh since June, Ukraine's state nuclear energy company Energoatom reported on July 28.

⚡️Media: NATO to open repair center https://kyivindependent.com/media-nato-to-open-repair-center-for-ukrainian-equipment-in-poland/ in Poland for Ukrainian equipment.
NATO plans to set up a logistics and repair center for Ukrainian military equipment near Polish Rzeszow, roughly 100 km from Ukraine's border, the Globe and Mail reported on July 28, citing Polish and Canadian officials.

The ex-head of the Russian prison in the occupied village of Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, and one of his subordinates have been charged over physical, sexual, and psychological abuse of Ukrainian soldiers held there, Ukraine's Prosecutor General's Office reported on July 28. https://kyivindependent.com/olenivka/ [so one reason at least is fairly clear why they blew the barracks up then]

⚡️Prosecutor General's Office: Explosion at Olenivka https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-generals-office-explosion-at-olenivka-prison-caused-by-thermobaric-weapon/ prison caused by thermobaric munition.

⚡️Zelensky signs law moving Christmas https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law/ in Ukraine to Dec 25. [significant as moving away from the Russian date]

⚡️Zelensky says Qatar joins https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-qatar-joins-ukraines-peace-formula/ Ukraine's Peace Formula

⚡️Disqualified Ukrainian fencer Kharlan reinstated https://kyivindependent.com/disqualified-ukrainian-fencer-kharlan-reinstated-awarded-paris-olympics-place/*, will have Paris Olympics place. *
The International Fencing Federation (FIE) announced on July 28 it was reinstating Ukrainian fencer Olga Kharlan, allowing her to take part in the team competition at the world championships in Italy.

Russian attacks injure https://kyivindependent.com/russian-shelling-injures-4-in-kherson-oblast-over-past-day/ at least 14 civilians over past day.
Russian forces attacked nine Ukrainian regions over the past day, regional officials reported on July 29.

https://kyivindependent.com/this-week-in-ukraine-ep-18-how-putin-cracks-down-on-former-allies/ This Week in Ukraine is dedicated to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s crackdown on his former allies after Wagner’s failed mutiny.

UPROOTED | An investigation into Russia’s abduction of Ukrainian children [I can't bear to watch this]

⚡️Zelensky vetoes bill https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-vetoes/ allocating almost $16 million to Holodomor Museum.

⚡️Orban once again blames West for war https://kyivindependent.com/orban-once-again-blames-west-for-war-calls-for-peace-talks-on-russian-terms/ calls for peace talks on Russian terms.

African Union calls for restoration of Black Sea grain deal

The African Union called for an "urgent" restoration of the Black Sea grain deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain through its Black Sea ports. "The problem of grains and fertilizers concerns everyone," Comoros President Azali Assoumani said in Sain...

https://kyivindependent.com/egyptian-president-wants-russia-to-revive-black-sea-grain-deal

PerkingFaintly · 29/07/2023 11:46

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 28/07/2023 21:35

Thanks @notimagain and @MissConducUS for explaining what they are exactly dealing with. Does anyone know about drones that are controlled via goggles as opposed to laptops? What are the true benefits? The last thing I am is technical but between drone hunting and being on the end of a Russian cyber attack on our health rostering system last year, I feel this war is a weird hybrid of WW1 and the Matrix.

Bloody hell, Hills.

Do you see the cyber attack on your rostering system as being targeted onatyour company, or was it a general attack affecting users of that software and part of normal Russian disruption of Everything?

Because if it was targeted at you, that's fucking desperate of them! Russian state feels so threatened by tiny individual actor adding their mite<asterisk> to the pile that they sick a quasi-state organisation onto them.

Footnote:
<asterisk> From where the Kremlin is sitting, you should count as tiny. From where I'm sitting, your effort is of course huge.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 12:00

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🗨 "The enemy is constantly attacking in the Kupiansk and Lyman sectors using its most professional units. Every day we repel numerous attacks in these areas. Not a single position has been lost," — Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces

⚡️ Rheinmetall will set up a repair center for Leopard tanks in Ukraine by the end of the summer, — CEO Armin Papperger.

⚡️New military aid was delivered to Ukraine from Germany
Among the equipment, in particular, are six Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and their ammunition, RQ-35, and Vector reconnaissance drones, as well as 10 Bandvagn 206 tracked all-terrain vehicles.

🇶🇦 Qatar allocates $100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine

Kazakhstan's primary trading partner has shifted, with China taking the lead position. According to the Kazakh news agency Inbusiness, China's share in Kazakhstan's foreign trade reached 19.2% in early June of this year, surpassing the trade volume with Russia, which stood at 18.8%.

🤺 The International Fencing Federation has decided to cancel the mandatory handshake

🇺🇳 Ukrainian Parliament calls on UNESCO to revoke Russia's membership.
296 MPs voted in favor. They also request an urgent mission to assess damages from Russian attacks on World Heritage sites in Lviv and Odesa, seeking UNESCO's assistance in safeguarding Ukraine's cultural heritage from Russian aggression.

Ukrainian troops will soon enter Crimea, — the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Kyrylo Budanov, in an interview. According to Kyrylo Budanov, there is currently no quantitative increase in the Russian occupation forces.

The mayor of the Norwegian city of Sokndal, Jonas Andersen Sayed, made an 11-day bicycle tour from Sokndal to the village of Zaliztsi in the Ternopil region, collecting 150,000 Norwegian kroner (approx. $15000) for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Fires continue to rage in Greece
In the last 24 hours, firefighters fought 51 new forest fires. Fires are extinguished with the help of airplanes and helicopters.

Analyst Michael Cruikshank noted that the front line is visible even from space.

Starlink and the Russians...

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 12:09

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇬🇧🇲🇱 British Ministry of Defense officials accidentally sent (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mod-officials-emailed-state-secrets-to-putin-ally-by-mistake-m37q5blxk) emails with classified information to the West African country of Mali, a Russian ally where the Wagner PMC operates.
This kind of problem is almost systematic. The Financial Times previously reported (https://www.ft.com/content/ab62af67-ed2a-42d0-87eb-c762ac163cf0) that over 10 years, millions of emails related to the US military were mistakenly sent to Mali.

✈️ The Air Force is skeptical about the possibility of resuming civil aviation flights in Ukraine during martial law.
"Missiles are flying from everywhere and of different types, the enemy is powerful and has technological weapons. Of course, we would like to see aviation start working, but the airspace over Ukraine is currently blocked, and I think it will not be opened soon," said Ihnat

Putin ignored the Turkish president's request to hold talks on the resumption of the grain deal.
The Wall Street Journal, citing (https://www.wsj.com/articles/great-power-rivalry-looms-over-ukraine-grain-deal-3d2e0eb1) diplomats and analysts, writes that Turkey is trying to resolve the issue through channels of communication with the Kremlin, and Putin has not spoken to Erdogan on the subject. The newspaper's sources say that Erdogan "angered" the Russian authorities when he decided to return the commanders of the Azovstal defenders to Ukraine and allowed Sweden to join NATO.

More than a hundred mercenaries of the Wagner PMC went to the Suwalki corridor, which unites the territory of the Baltic states with Poland and separates the Kaliningrad region of Russia and Belarus. This is the only land connection between the Baltic states and other allies.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called it a step toward "a further hybrid attack on the territory of Poland."

❗️An explosion occurs on the territory of an oil refinery in Samara, Russian media reports.
According to the preliminary version, an explosive device was planted.

The 55-nation African Union called on (https://www.politico.eu/article/african-union-calls-to-reinstate-the-ukrainian-grain-deal/) Russia to immediately resume the UN-brokered grain deal. The head of the bloc, Azali Assoumani, said he would raise the issue at a meeting with Putin in St. Petersburg.

🇰🇵 The Ukrainian Defense Forces are using North Korean BM-21 Grad missiles against the Russian occupiers, the Financial Times reports. (www.ft.com/content/96e1f526-ae3d-4cff-bc37-8f9dd7d5975f)
Artillerymen told the newspaper that these shells are very unreliable, so they do not like to use them. But sometimes there is no choice.
Judging by the markings, the journalist writes, most 122 mm shells were produced in 1980-1990.

📊78% of Ukrainians believe (https://www.oporaua.org/news/viyna/24826-bilshist-ukrayintsiv-ne-gotovi-iti-na-kompromisi-z-vorogom) all Russian citizens are responsible for Russia's military aggression against Ukraine - poll by the International Center for Ukrainian Victory (ICUV)

Ukrainians want Putin to be their president - Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
BringBackCoffeeCreams · 29/07/2023 12:13

Energoatom: Russia kidnaps, tortures Zaporizhzhia https://kyivindependent.com/energoatom-russia-kidnapped-tortured-employee/ nuclear plant engineer engineer Serhii Potynh since June, Ukraine's state nuclear energy company Energoatom reported on July 28..

Those incredibly brave workers. DH says there's no reason the imported russian workers wouldn't be able to restart the plant, it's a russian designed reactor. The reason can't, he believes, is that the Ukrainian workers have taken steps that only they know to ensure it stays shut down. So now they're being tortured for that information, and for 2 months they've held out because they know full well the consequences. Absolute heroes.

Energoatom: Russia kidnaps, tortures Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant engineer

Russia illegally holds Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant engineer Serhii Potynh since June and subjects him to torture, Ukraine's state nuclear energy company Energoatom reported on July 28.

https://kyivindependent.com/energoatom-russia-kidnapped-tortured-employee

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 12:16

Those incredibly brave workers. DH says there's no reason the imported russian workers wouldn't be able to restart the plant, it's a russian designed reactor. The reason can't, he believes, is that the Ukrainian workers have taken steps that only they know to ensure it stays shut down. So now they're being tortured for that information, and for 2 months they've held out because they know full well the consequences. Absolute heroes.

So that's why.

My God those men are heros, yes.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 12:22

That's had me in tears - kept isolated, their families threatened and deported (from previous info); some of them have died from beatings.

And they're still holding out. My God.

Gothambutnotahamster · 29/07/2023 12:24

Such bravery. Slava Ukraini.

blueshoes · 29/07/2023 12:48

PerkingFaintly · 29/07/2023 11:46

Bloody hell, Hills.

Do you see the cyber attack on your rostering system as being targeted onatyour company, or was it a general attack affecting users of that software and part of normal Russian disruption of Everything?

Because if it was targeted at you, that's fucking desperate of them! Russian state feels so threatened by tiny individual actor adding their mite<asterisk> to the pile that they sick a quasi-state organisation onto them.

Footnote:
<asterisk> From where the Kremlin is sitting, you should count as tiny. From where I'm sitting, your effort is of course huge.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong I hope it was not a targeted attack. Do you know for sure it was Russian in origin? I know you have been facilitating humanitarian drops to Ukraine.

You were saying about hybrid of WWI and matrix ...

Not sure about the pros and cons of those controlled by VR goggles v. laptops (too techie for me!) but I found examples of both being used by Ukraine. In the last link/photo, you will see the drone operators looking at some kind of tablet, maybe using the cheaper commercial drones such as Chinese-made DJI Mavic 3 for reconnaissance. In the second video and first 2 photos, the drone operators are wearing VR headsets – these could be attack drones manufactured by Ukrainian companies. Those VR headsets are wired up to quite a lot of electonic gizmos, so maybe not as portable in the field. These is also one operator looking at his smartphone but that could be anything, lol.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-drone-spotters-on-front-lines-wage-new-kind-of-war-11659870805

Ukraine’s Drone Spotters on Front Lines Wage New Kind of War
Commercially available drones selling for as little as $3,000 are revolutionizing combat.

Much more widespread on the front lines are off-the-shelf commercial drones, such as Chinese-made DJI quadrocopters, operated by teams attached to individual battalions and companies of troops. With a retail price of around $3,000 for a DJI Mavic 3 and upward of $10,000 for the bigger DJI Matrice series, these drones can make all the difference on the battlefield, according to soldiers.

“They get bought by friends, by relatives, by volunteers—and then become the eyes of the front line units,” said Alex, a Ukrainian drone operator who fought in the battle for Lysychansk in the Donbas area in June. “The situation can change in 10 minutes, and you need to see what the enemy is doing right away.” The powerful Russian jamming and electronic-warfare capabilities in the Donbas area, he added, disabled the GPS navigation systems used by most other drones—but didn’t disrupt the flights of quadrocopters such as DJI Mavic 3 that can be flown manually.

WSJ just published this video from Ukrainian units on the frontlines, to break down how their FPV drone teams execute these attacks on Russia’s military.

How Ukrainian DIY Drones Are Taking Out Russian Tanks | WSJ

Since the Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces began, there’s been a dramatic increase in Ukraine’s use of FPV, or first person view drones to execute kamikaze-style attacks on Russian tanks, troop positions and other large-scale weapons. The aim is to operate cheaply and to make the military less dependent on Western weapons

Kamikaze drones must get very close to a target (1-2 miles to 7 miles) and remain undetectable. To execute an attack, FPV drone pilots work in teams to identify targets and get into position to strike. The teams comprise a driver to get to the location and 2 drone pilots, one for the attack (or Kamikaze) drone and one for the reconnaissance drone. Failure rate is high. Russian firepower can knock these drones out of the sky if detected. One way they evade detection is by using low quality cameras on FPVs. The signals these cameras transmit are less likely to be scrambled by Russian electronic warfare systems. The attack drone operator wears a virtual reality style headset to control the drone. About 100 Ukrainian companies manufacture FPVs. Most of these parts come from China which are becoming difficult to source. Now Russia is catching up in the use of drones.

blueshoes · 29/07/2023 12:56

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 29/07/2023 12:22

That's had me in tears - kept isolated, their families threatened and deported (from previous info); some of them have died from beatings.

And they're still holding out. My God.

My heart is broken (again). Between Zap NPP workers and Mariupol defenders, it is unfathomable how strong the Ukraine spirit and courage is.

And I wonder where the UN IAEA Rafael Grossi is in all this.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 29/07/2023 13:02

@PerkingFaintly and @blueshoes no not personal, as franchise owners we are a tiny cog in the wheel. The parent company that owns our rostering system also owns the 111 system and I imagine they were the principal target. They went deep with 111. Left us totally blind on 22,000 visits per month to vulnerable people in their homes and it never recovered, we had to change our system, it was horrendous operationally and financially speaking for months. It was definitely a russian attack but we were not told very much. Whether it was Ukraine related, I imagine so, but i dont know. Hackers from Russia, China and I'm sure other countries have attacked our healthcare systems previously.

I cannot begin to imagine what those brave hostages have gone through. Its so desperately sad, the suffering, and their bravery and patriotism precious.

@blueshoes ill read your drone info in more detail later thankyou 😊

MissConductUS · 29/07/2023 22:08

I thought this was a pretty fair assessment of the ground war. There's no paywall, so I'll post the link:

What Ukraine must do to win in its southern push – and what Russia has in reserve

Oddly enough, it says almost nothing about Russian reserves, other than the fact that don't have enough of them to make regular troop rotations.

Here are a few thoughts I'll add. Russia is making a lot of effort to fight the Ukrainians in front of their first defensive lines. While this might serve a political purpose in limiting Ukrainian progress, it's a mistake militarily. You're sacrificing troops and materiel to do something your defensive fortifications should do for you.

Another thing that I've heard is that in many locations, Russia's secondary and tertiary defensive positions are unmanned. They're useless if they really don't have them under observation and fire control. That could allow the Ukrainians to shift to maneuver warfare after breaking through the first defensive lines. And, as the article points out, there are gaps between the lines created by terrain features that can be exploited.

Understandably, there's not a lot of information coming out in real time about what's happening, but I think August will be a turning point in Ukraine's favor.

What Ukraine must do to win in its southern push -- and what Russia has in reserve | CNN

The Ukrainian military is doubling down on efforts to break through thick Russian defenses in its counteroffensive in the south, which has struggled to gain momentum since being launched at the beginning of June.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/29/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-south-push-intl/index.html

MissConductUS · 30/07/2023 00:24

If anyone was wondering what cluster munitions do to vehicles, this is a good example. I'm surprised the fuel tank didn't explode. It must be diesel, not gasoline.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1685223219446329345?t=LJ1upNrPurQLYagPFXOYmA&s=19

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1685223219446329345?s=19&t=LJ1upNrPurQLYagPFXOYmA

blueshoes · 30/07/2023 00:29

Hills, the cyberattack sounds horrendous. Ransomware apparently. It is callous and heartless to target the vulnerable in order to extort money. Totally the modus operandi of Russian f--king criminals. I hope you managed to recover your data eventually. Must have been a traumatising time for you and your service users.

MissConductUS, thanks for the link to the CNN article and your optimism. Sounds like a slow hard slog for Ukraine.

“Their helicopters are flying here in pairs and shelling our positions, Su-25 assault aircraft are working, dropping bombs on our guys’ heads. Many units have been brought here to try not only to stop our movement, but also to recapture lost positions in certain areas.”

I wish Ukraine could have air cover whilst they try to cross those mined areas.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/07/2023 09:58

Three UAVs hit Moscow today, with some impressive footage of one explosion in apparently a rather trendy area. A Govt building was also hit and papers were floating all down the street. No injuries.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/07/2023 10:00

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Segments of the Russian pro-war ultranationalist information space appear to be coalescing around a Kremlin narrative effort to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failure, increasingly overstating Ukrainian losses and writing less about Russia's losses and challenges than they had been.
  • Select Russian milbloggers may be shaping their depiction of the wider Ukrainian counteroffensive for fear of Kremlin punishment following the arrest of prominent pro-war critic Igor Girkin.
  • The Kremlin’s ability to establish a more cohesive narrative about the war within the Russian information space remains uncertain, and subsequent Russian failures or significant Ukrainian successes could disrupt the Kremlin’s progress in this effort.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and advanced in some areas on July 29.
  • Ukrainian forces likely targeted Russian military and logistics assets in occupied Crimea on July 28 and 29.
  • Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on the evening of July 28.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line and the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and made claimed advances along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and advanced around Bakhmut.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and south of Orikhiv and advanced along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and south of Orikhiv but did not make confirmed or claimed advances.
  • A Ukrainian report indicates that Russian occupation authorities continue crypto-mobilization efforts in occupied Ukraine to replenish losses from combat casualties.
  • Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to Russia under the guise of rest and rehabilitation programs.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/07/2023 10:07

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Ukraine’s counteroffensive lurches forward: Key moment looms as more forces committed https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-lurches-forward-key-moment-looms-as-more-forces-committed/
Almost eight weeks into the long-awaited operation that began on June 5 with limited gains and a fair share of disappointment, the counteroffensive has entered a new phase, as new brigades have been seen committed to the fight.
The next week’s fighting poses to be crucial for the counteroffensive.

⚡️Ukrainian military confirms https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-confirms-striking-chonhar-bridge-connecting-kherson-oblast-and-occupied-crimea/**striking bridge between Kherson Oblast and Crimea.
The Ukrainian military confirmed that it had struck the Chonhar Bridge, connecting Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast and the occupied Crimean peninsula early on July 29.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Russian forces aim to maintain https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-russian-forces-aim-to-maintain-control-over-land-corridor-into-occupied-crimea/ control over land corridor into occupied Crimea.

⚡️IAEA: Reactor 5 at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant switched https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-3/ to cold shutdown.
Reactor unit 5 at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was successfully switched to cold shutdown status to conduct maintenance only possible in that state, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Mariano Grossi said on July 29.
The IAEA reported that unit 5's transfer into cold shutdown status – a mode in which it no longer produces electricity – was conducted on the morning of July 28, three days after unit 4 was brought to hot shutdown.

⚡️WSJ: Saudi Arabia to host https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-saudi-arabia-to-host-ukraine-peace-talks-on-aug-5-6/ Ukraine peace talks, without Russia, in August.

⚡️Polish PM: Wagner mercenaries in Belarus 'may try https://kyivindependent.com/polish-pm-wagner-mercenaries/infiltrating Poland.'

⚡️International fencing to change https://kyivindependent.com/international-fencing-federation-to-change-rules-after-disqualifying-ukrainian-fencer-for-refusing-handshake-with-russian/ rules after disqualifying Ukrainian fencer for refusing handshake with Russian.

Yesterday's losses then today's losses.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/07/2023 10:17

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Musk refused the request of the Armed Forces to include Starlink in the zone of occupied Crimea, — The New York Times
Elon Musk has repeatedly restricted access to Starlink during military operations.
"At some point, he refused the Ukrainian military to turn on Starlink in Crimea, which affected the strategy of conducting hostilities," the material says.
[However, there was one report that the US Govt has bought 400-500 Starlinks for Ukraine and has ensured that they cannot be turned off. This hasn't been confirmed]

The Armed Forces of Ukraine successfully struck the Chongar bridge, — Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. [The Russians deny it was successful]

This night something happened in Moscow.
The offices of the Russian ministries are located in the damaged building in Moscow: the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Digital Affairs, as well as the Federal Agency for Nationalities, Rosacreditation and Rosstandart.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation writes that allegedly the drones "did not achieve their goal."
Meanwhile, photos of the documents of the Ministry of Digital Affairs of Russia, which were swept away by the explosive wave, appeared in the media.

Money is the key reason Russia blocked Ukrainian ports in 2022 and killed the Grain Initiative last week. Russia seeks to eliminate competition and profit from high food costs.

The American CNN channel devoted a report to the Ukrainian Magura V5 marine drone.
The publication notes that these drones seriously limited the movement of the Russian fleet, and the Russian defense against them (mainly shooting at spotted drones) is not effective.

As a result of a Russian missile hitting the building of a vocational and technical education institution in Sumy, two people were killed, 20 were injured

🤡 Putin wants to get a record 80% of support in the elections
Sources in Putin's administration write that they plan to ensure such a result by various methods: mobilization of real supporters of the president, administrative and corporate mobilization, and electronic voting.

Only about 10% of the candidates make it into the Special Operations Forces. However, those who succeed become the elite of the Ukrainian army, capable of carrying out the most challenging tasks. They are the ones who undertake the most intricate assignments, including reconnaissance, sabotage behind enemy lines, ambushes, enemy logistics destruction, precision operations, resistance movement activities, successful information and psychological operations, and much more that the public will not learn about anytime soon. So, how did the youngest branch of Ukraine’s military become so powerful in just seven years.
Watch full video:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/07/2023 10:38

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Pentagon to buy Starlink terminals for Ukraine that Musk won't be able to turn off - NYT
As noted, this was done in order to provide Ukraine with terminals and services to perform tasks without fear of interruption of communication.
The publication recalls (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/28/business/starlink.html) that Musk disconnected access to some Starlink terminals in Ukraine [aha, confirmed now]

Russian blogger Ross Marsov says Russians have lost around 20 artillery guns, which equals to one artillery battalion, just in "Vremevsky ledge" (Staromlynivka axis) in the past two months.

In Mariupol, Ukrainian partisans neutralized three military trucks, damaged the building housing the occupiers' military engineering unit, and disrupted the production of dragon's teeth.

UNESCO mission arrives in Odesa - Odesa City Council
It is known that the commission will stay in the city for 4 days and assess the damage caused to cultural and religious sites by the occupiers' missile attacks on July 19-23
Greece also plans to participate in the restoration of architectural monuments, including the Papudova House and the Rodokanaki House.

🇩🇪 For the first time, the German Interior Ministry provided https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article246631894/Ukraine-Dutzende-Extremisten-aus-Deutschland-kaempfen-im-Kriegsgebiet.html data on the number of its citizens who traveled to Ukraine to the war zone.
In total, it is 61 people. 39 German citizens are suspected of having left the country with the intention of taking part in the war. Of these, 27 are fighting on the side of Russia and 12 on the side of Ukraine. Most of them are people with "extremist views". They are both right-wing and left-wing.

Ukraine: Dutzende Extremisten aus Deutschland kämpfen im Kriegsgebiet - WELT

Sicherheitsbehörden registrieren Dutzende Personen, die aus Deutschland ins ukrainische Kriegsgebiet fahren. Einige von ihnen schließen sich Streitkräften an. Ein CDU-Spitzenpolitiker fordert: Wer für Russland kämpfe, müsse strafrechtlich verfolgt werd...

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article246631894/Ukraine-Dutzende-Extremisten-aus-Deutschland-kaempfen-im-Kriegsgebiet.html

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/07/2023 10:49

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-30-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • The lack of Russian milblogger reaction to a [apparently successful, but not 100% confirmed] Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar bridge represents a notable inflection in Russian reporting on the war in Ukraine and may suggest that the Kremlin has directed Russian milbloggers to refrain from covering certain topics.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin disingenuously framed the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive as inhibiting prospects for negotiations.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and made claimed advances in some areas.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kremina and Avdiivka-Donetsk City lines and did not make any confirmed gains in these areas.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations southwest and northwest of Bakhmut and made claimed gains in this direction.
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast and western Zaporizhia Oblast and made claimed marginal advances.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian forces counterattacked and regained lost positions in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts.
  • Russian sources claimed that Russian officials plan to regulate civilian volunteers who take supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian partisans reportedly sabotaged Russian military equipment in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast on July 29.

[so desperate for men, but so profligate with their lives]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/07/2023 11:00

Kyiv Independent Telegram

Ukraine’s counteroffensive lurches forward: Key moment looms as more forces committed https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-lurches-forward-key-moment-looms-as-more-forces-committed/
While the world media were pondering on whether or not the counteroffensive had already failed in its objectives, Ukraine’s Armed Forces had changed their tactics to a more systematic, attrition-focused approach.
Now, with evidence that the Ukrainian command has committed or is in the process of committing what could be the majority of its reserve units to the battle, the next week’s fighting poses to be crucial for the counteroffensive. [see map below]

⚡️ Zelensky: It's natural, fair that war is returning https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-its-natural-fair-that-war-is-returning-to-russian-territory/ to Russian territory.

⚡️Ukraine to discuss https://kyivindependent.com/office-of-president/ security guarantees with U.S. next week
Negotiations between Ukraine and the United States for a bilateral security guarantee agreement are set to begin as early as next week, head of the Office of the President Andrii Yermak reported on Telegram.

⚡️Zelensky warns https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-zelensky-warns-of-renewed/* of renewed Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid.*
Russia is likely to recommence attacks on Ukraine's energy system during the upcoming autumn and winter months, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 30.

⚡️Wagner Group claims it's halting https://kyivindependent.com/wagner-group-claims-it-halts-recruitment/ recruitment 'indefinitely'.
The Wagner Group claimed on July 30 that it had "indefinitely" suspended recruitment of new members as it possesses sufficiently "large personnel reserves."
The Wagner Group did not mention whether this decision extends to recruiting new members in Belarus where a significant number of the contractors are based at the moment.

⚡️Czechia freezes assets https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-freezes-assets-of-russian-oligarch-close-to-putin/ of Russian oligarch with ties to Putin.
The Czech government has blocked the bank accounts and frozen the assets of sanctioned Russian oligarch Vladimir Yevtushenkov, Radio Prague reported on July 30, citing Czech Television.

⚡️Update: 2 killed, 31 injured https://kyivindependent.com/update-20-injured-in-russian-missile-strike-against-kryvyi-rih/ in Russian missile strike against Kryvyi Rih.

⚡️US and Australia call https://kyivindependent.com/u-s/ on Chinese authorities to influence Russia

⚡️ Pope Francis urges https://kyivindependent.com/pope-francis-calls-on-russia-to-restore-the-black-sea-grain-deal/ Russia to restore Black Sea grain deal.

⚡️ Culture Ministry: Work begins https://kyivindependent.com/culture-ministry-work-begins-to-replace-soviet-symbols-on-motherland-monument/ to replace Soviet symbols on Motherland Monument.
Work to dismantle the Soviet emblem on Kyiv's Motherland Monument has started, the Culture Ministry reported on July 30.
The monument will instead be fitted with a Ukrainian trident.

⚡️Russian ex-president threatens https://kyivindependent.com/medvedev-threatens-nuclear-retaliation-should-ukraine-win-war/nuclear strike if Ukraine liberates occupied territories. [yawn]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
Ukraine Invasion: Part 43
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