Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Some good news:

Granted any missile is a problem but why are choppers with missiles of 15 plus k a particular problem for Ukraine?

Those are the heaviest, longest range helicopter mounted missiles Russia has, and the primary weapon they've been using against Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles.

The 15k range means that the helicopters can fire them while out of range of Ukraine's shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles.

Just saw that Wagnar are recruiting for a potential Poland mission.

ARE THEY INSANE?

Poland is on high alert, has 24000 deployed personnel and 124,000 reserves and they are part of NATO.

It's got to be a psy-ops.
Texas would be easier. The weather is not as lethal.

@TheABC I imagine this is a complete and utter bluster designed to panic, scare and distract.

Texas would not be easier, Fort Hood is the largest army base in the US and most adult civilians are armed. People would queue to shoot the Russians.

MissConductUS, thanks for answering. That is a bummer for the offensive.

Are these missiles too short a range, fast and low for normal air defence? I guess out in the field when on the advance it is difficult to drag around air defence systems? I am making things up now.

Apologies for assuming that everyone knew that Fort Hood, which was very recently renamed, is in central Texas. It’s primarily an armor and mechanized infantry base with roughly 82,000 soldiers stationed there. That’s larger than the British Army.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Cavazos

Thanks, @MissConducUS, I knew about Texas gun reputation, but not Fort Hood. Every day is a learning day....

@blueshoes

Are these missiles too short a range, fast and low for normal air defence?

Yep, hitting a small fast moving, non-ballistic anti-tank missile in the clutter of a battlefield in the time you'd have available to detect and engage is pretty much impossible...(it's partly the OODA loop thing again)

The Navy have the capability to some degree for use against anti-ship missiles usually using gun systems but they're operating in a usually completely different environment with clear lines of sight and long detection ranges, also anti-ship missile are bigger than the Anti-Tank stuff...

From a dynamic POV it's also a simpler job defending if you are the target and the missile is headed directly your way (dynamics/physics). By contrast it's harder to next to impossible for one unit to provide defence for everybody in an area against short range systems (e.g. one mobile SAM unit to defend a whole cohort of armour).

Couple of questions from me please-

1. How long does it take a LMUR missile to reach its destination?
2. Ability of a helicopter to detect a tank at 15km?

Basically how does it work for a helicopter to locate and destroy a randomly moving target from 15km away. Does it lock on and if so how does it 'see' it?

Tanks and artillery are all capable of moving out of location very rapidly. Even towed guns can be hooked up and moved in 90 seconds if there is good reason.

Ouch!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-27-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and made gains in some areas, although Ukrainian forces appear not to have continued significant mechanized assaults south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• A US official expressed caution about assessing that the July 26 uptick in Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast is part of the Ukrainian main effort, tempering July 26 statements to the contrary.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin used the Russia–Africa Economic and Humanitarian Forum in St. Petersburg on July 27 to continue efforts to posture Russia as a more attractive ally to African partner states than the collective West.
• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was also present in St. Petersburg on July 27 and took the opportunity to informally meet with an unknown number of African leaders, suggesting that the Wagner Group intends to remain a significant player in Africa.
• Prigozhin additionally used the backdrop of the Russia-Africa summit to position Wagner as a viable anti-Western partner for post-coup Niger.
• The Kremlin reportedly distributed a manual to Russian state media on framing the anniversary of the Baptism of Rus on July 28, likely as part of continued information operations and propaganda narratives to advance Russian military objectives.
• Russia conducted another strike on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast and rear areas of Ukraine overnight on July 26–27.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on July 27 and did not make any confirmed advances.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 27 and have advanced south of Bakhmut, in the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Russian State Duma approved measures on July 27 aimed at clarifying confusion surrounding the recently updated laws regarding conscripts and reservists.
• Russian authorities are discriminating against Ukrainian refugees in Belgorod Oblast, Russia.

Note: [repeating it] A US official expressed caution about assessing that the July 26 uptick in Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast is part of the Ukrainian main effort, tempering July 26 statements to the contrary.

"Prigozhin additionally used the backdrop of the Russia-Africa summit to position Wagner as a viable anti-Western partner for post-coup Niger." [wonder if/just how far they were involved in that coup]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Putin attempts to bribe African leaders https://kyivindependent.com/putin-promises-african-leaders-russian-grain-to-substitute-grain-deal/ with free grain after pulling out of grain deal.

⚡️US intelligence report: China's support increasingly important https://kyivindependent.com/us-intelligence-report-chinas-support-increasingly-important-for-russias-war-effort/**for Russia's war effort.
Chinese support is growing increasingly crucial for Russia's war efforts in Ukraine, according to an unclassified report by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence released on July 27.
Based on the report, titled "Support Provided by the People's Republic of China to Russia," Beijing has increased its exports of dual-use technologies, semiconductors, and other supplies and materials that Russia uses for its war effort.

⚡️Military reports liberation of Staromaiorske https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-july-27/ in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia commits https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-commits-new-attack-helicopters-in-response-to-ukraines-counteroffensive/ new attack helicopters in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive. The U.K. reported that there is evidence Russia is using a small number of new Ka-52M helicopters, which are "heavily modified" versions of the Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters.

⚡️Poland to double https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-double-the-size-of-its-military-in-response-to-security-threat/the size of its military in response to security threat.

Belarus is using Wagner forces to threaten and de-stabilize an already-tense situation but do not present a military threat to Ukraine, Border Guard Service spokesperson Andrii Demchenko said on Ukrainian television on July 28. https://kyivindependent.com/border-guards-wagner/

⚡️Politico: US expects to start delivering Abrams tanks https://kyivindependent.com/politico-4/ to Ukraine in September. A number of Abrams tanks will be initially transported to Germany in August, where they will undergo final refurbishments. Once that process is complete, the first batch of Abrams will be shipped to Ukraine the following month.

⚡️Russia bans civilian access to Arabat Spit https://kyivindependent.com/russia-closes-civilian-access-to-arabat-spit-connecting-crimea-with-kherson-oblast/ connecting Crimea with Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Parliament passes bill on restoring electronic asset declarations https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-approves-restoration-of-e-declaration-in-first-reading/* for officials in first reading.*
Ukraine's Parliament passed in the first reading on July 27 a bill on the restoration of electronic declaration of assets for public officials, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak reported on Telegram.

⚡️Rivne Oblast military enlistment https://kyivindependent.com/rivne-military-enlistment-office-head-detained/ office head detained over physical abuse of subordinate. Law enforcement officers conducted six searches at the offices, places of residence, and vehicles of the suspects. During the search, eight bags of what appeared to be narcotic substances and tools for their use were seized from the head of the district enlistment office, the SBI said.

⚡️Ukraine's energy operator readies for worst-case scenario https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-main-energy-network-ready-to-work-without-restrictions-next-winter/ next winter. "We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which includes repeated missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure," Kudrytskyi said.

Sanctioned Russian oligarchs spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on luxury life in the U.K. thanks to numerous sanction exemptions, the New York Times reported on July 27. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-russian-oligarchs-enjoy/

⚡️Unexploded cluster round kills ⚡️Unexploded cluster round kills (https://kyivindependent.com/unexploded-cluster-round/) farmer, wounds another in Mykolaiv Oblast.farmer, wounds another in Mykolaiv Oblast.

⚡️Ukrainian fencer disqualified https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-fencer-disqualified-after-refusing-to-shake-hands-with-russian-opponent/after refusing to shake hands with Russian opponent.

Lviv Oblast Governor Maksym Kozytskyi announced on July 27 that he had asked law enforcement to investigate the disappearance of close to a million dollars in volunteer-donated military supplies for Ukrainian soldiers. https://kyivindependent.com/lviv-oblast-governor-orders-investigation-after/

Officials accused https://kyivindependent.com/officials-accused-of-using-war-as-pretext-for-hiding-ill-gotten-wealth/of using war as pretext for hiding ill-gotten wealth.
As Ukrainian soldiers are defending their homeland on the front line, officials in the rear are accused of using the war as a pretext for hiding their wealth. [now the bill has been passed; see above]

https://kyivindependent.com/maud-joseph-female-entrepreneurs-ingenuity-resilience-continue-to-shine-despite-war/
“In my opinion, these women have four things in common: they dream boldly, discover their niche in the market, push through in spite of difficult circumstances, and, of course, love their businesses and their country,” writes Maud Joseph, a Director of the Franco-Ukrainian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in her recent op-ed.

On July 27, Ukraine’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, dismissed Oleksandr Tkachenko from the post of minister of culture and information policy in a vote of 321 to 2. https://kyivindependent.com/who-was-ukraines-controversial-culture-minister-and-why-was-he-dismissed/

Lower numbers but still 30 artillery destroyed.

With regard to your last comments 90 seconds is generally a horribly long period of time in missile warfare........ I'll get back to that...

Wiki gives a good precis of the two main modes for LMUR, I'll C&P a couple of bits then paraphrase:

It has an optical/thermal imaging seeker. It can be used in two different modes. In the first one, the target is marked by the operator before launch, and the carrier helicopter can turn away directly after the missile launch

AKA "fire and forget" in the missile trade.

Helicopter crew designate target (tell the seeker where to look), pop the ordnance off and then run for cover. There are lots of optical/IR (thermal imaging) seekers around now that can recognise and discriminate between shapes and guide accordingly. FWIW there's some really scary optical/IR stuff on the newer Sidewinder air to air missiles that don't just recognise aircraft shapes, they can recognise which bit of the shape to hit for best results. I have no doubt same can be applied to anti-armour.

Back to wiki:

In the second mode, the missile is launched without it being locked onto the target. It first flies in its direction, using inertial guidance with satellite navigation providing corrections. The image from the seeker is transmitted back to the helicopter via a datalink pod called the AS-BPLA (Аппаратура связи с беспилотным летательным аппаратом or communication equipment with an unmanned aerial vehicle). The operator can select the target and change it while the missile is flying towards its area.

In other words the helicopter crew launch the ordnance into an area of interest (e.g. grid square, road junction,) possibly designated by a Forward Air Controller who is on the ground embedded with the infantry...then the helicopter crewman watches the seeker image that is transmitted back to the helicopter and then designates a specific target whilst the missile is in flight.

If wiki is correct the missile maximum speed is 230 m/s...I'm not sure if that is at the end launch process( the boost) and then it tails off, or if it is a sustained speed...if it is sustained then it's obviously a shade over 60 seconds from launch to 15 km...

Given anybody trying to avoid one of these things needs to detect the launch and then do whatever is needed to evade 60 seconds is not a lot of time.

As for your second question..Some helicopters, including the Ka-52, have optical/ IR sensors and also radar that can be used to detect tanks at long range....and in any event even if that doesn't work with guidance option 2 described above the helicopter don't have to do the detecting, it can be done by somebody else in the vicinity.

HTH

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LMUR

https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1684625054775070720 Not sure if this has been seen already. Russian cruise ship forced to leave Georgian port after protests, sent off with Ukrainian national anthem played at them

UNITED24 Media Telegram

In Pyongyang, Kim Jong-un showed Russian Defense Minister Shoigu ballistic missiles banned by a UN resolution similar to the US RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper drones and other advanced North Korean weapons. During his speech at the reception, Shoigu called North Korea's army "the strongest in the world."

Speaking at the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Putin promised to supply 25,000 to 50,000 tons of grain for free and with free delivery to six African countries:
▫️ Burkina Faso;
▫️ Zimbabwe;
▫️ Mali;
▫️ Somalia;
▫️ Central African Republic;
▫️ Eritrea.

Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa rejects free grain from Russia, — Reuters
"We are very grateful. But now we don't have a shortage of grain," Mnangagwa said. According to him, the country is fully supplied with food, and there are no problems with supply.

The Czech-made Multiple Rocket Launch System “Vampire” is the younger, but bigger and more talented brother of the BM-21 Grad. In the skillful hands of Ukrainian artillerymen, the Vampire becomes almost a high-precision weapon.

Explosions rang out near the Zaporizhzhia NPP and were recorded by IAEA experts, — Oleh Korikov, head of the Governmental Energy Regulatory Commission

The BRICS Development Bank has abandoned new projects in Russia due to Western sanctions, — Reuters citing the head of the bank, Dilma Rousseff.
The $100 billion New Development Bank (NDB), headquartered in Shanghai, was established by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa in 2014 to finance projects in BRICS and developing countries.
Sanctions against Moscow in response to a large-scale invasion of Ukraine made the bank toxic in the eyes of investors since 20% of the authorized capital belongs to the Russian Federation.

Real inflation in Russia is five times higher than the figure officially announced by the authorities, reports The Moscow Times citing the estimates of the Romir research holding.
Analysts believe that at the end of June, the annual inflation of goods in the FMCG category, including household goods, from hygiene products to food, was 17%. At the same time, if official statistics are to be believed, the consumer price index in the Russian Federation increased by only 3.25%.
Unlike Rosstat, which calculates inflation based on a virtual basket of 500 goods and services, Romir examines prices based on 15 million actual purchases by residents of Russian cities. Since the beginning of January 2023, inflation in Russia calculated in this way amounted to 16% — while "Rosstat" announced an indicator of 2.7%.
In general, since the beginning of the full-scale war of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, according to the calculations of "Romir" experts, inflation in Russia has reached 47%. [not sure how reliable this is, mind you]

Russia will invite Ukrainian athletes to the World Friendship Games and will ensure the safety of their stay, — Minister of Sports of the Russian Federation Matitsyn.
"In September 2024, the World Friendship Games will be held in Russia, they will be held in Moscow and Yekaterinburg. We plan to hold these games every four years," said Matitsyn. [ahahahahaha]

According to experts from the Chatham House think tank, allies of Ukraine should abandon the notion that negotiations alone can bring an end to the ongoing war. In their report titled "How to Stop Russia's War Against Ukraine," they stress that negotiations will not yield the desired results as long as Russia's objective remains the destruction of Ukraine.

I am proud that Italy defends international law by supporting Kyiv, — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during a meeting with US President Joe Biden at the White House.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Attorney General Kostin confirmed that the United States intends to submit data on Russian war crimes to the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

🌾 European Commission does not have funding to cover additional transportation costs for transit of agricultural products from Ukraine after Russia withdraws from Black Sea grain deal and starts shelling ports - Reuters

Ukrainians are the best soldiers in the world because they are re-recruited Russians - Russian propaganda in yet another unsuccessful attempt to explain Russian military failures.

Moscow Mayor Sobyanin said that a drone attacked the Russian capital at night. According to him, there was no damage or injuries, and the drone was shot down by air defense.

An oil depot is on fire in the temporarily occupied Shakhtarsk, Donetsk region. The city's occupation administration claims a missile attack.
"Donbas Realities" geolocated the location of the hit to the oil depot in occupied Shakhtarsk, which is located 60 kilometers from the front line. The occupation authorities claimed a "missile strike".

Russian prosecutors propose to sentence Dmitry Skurikhin, a businessman from the Leningrad region who painted the facade of his store with the names of Ukrainian cities, to 2.5 years in prison [I have unlimited respect and admiration for Russians who openly protest the war. They are going up against their own countrymen, the propaganda, the Russian system and losing their freedom - and we know enough of what Russian prisons are like to know that he will have a very, very tough time]

I watch this channel every day. Today he has a detailed account of the battle to liberate Urozhaine, mentioned by @DesdamonasHandkerchief last night

This was good until the unannounced advertisement at the end for an investment product.

@notimagain thank you for the explanation on LMUR.

I do wonder the success rate of this weapon. On the thermal mode I can see the benefit of that against tanks. I still wonder how accurate it will be against a moving target. Is it ‘painted on’ so can’t miss for example. On the second mode, 900 kilometres an hour requires some quick brain to hand coordination.

I recall some of those videos on You Tube from 2004 taken from drones, helicopters in the skies above Iraq. Mines being laid by terrorists turned out to be farmers planting potatoes, arms’ smugglers were farmers laying irrigation pipes and a marauding gang of armed fighters was nothing more than a goat herder and 30 goats. All blown away because reconnaissance and identification was far from perfect.

The south and east of Ukraine is a patchwork of arable fields with occasional shelter belts of trees. There isn’t much else. Very hard to hide tanks and not a great place to be sitting on a tractor of which there will be very many. I hope sons and daughters of farmers get exemptions from joining up. They will be in the thick of it, with mines and cluster weapons also.

I still wonder how accurate it will be against a moving target. Is it ‘painted on’ so can’t miss for example.

If seekers are anything like the modern air to air ones (which can cope with a lot of movement) they'll simply "recognise" tank, or whatever was designated, and steer at it, even if it is moving. Probably the best the target can do is mask itself PDQ (e.g. behind a building)..but to do that it has to know it's being engaged.

On the second mode, 900 kilometres an hour requires some quick brain to hand coordination.

Depends on the missile flight profile and the quality of displays but by way of comparison the pilots of ground attack fighters using old style tactics (pre-MANPADs) would have been expected to sort out targeting for unguided rocket attacks against armour (e.g. Harrier using SNEB) at that sort of speed whilst in a dive....takes training but it can be done.

I'm just speculating here but in the case of something like the Ka-52 using the "launching undesignated" option the operator ( who hasn't got to worry about flying) having popped off the missile towards a general area will possibly has to do not much more than watch the screen, spot a target (which may be very obvious in IR) move a cursor to overlay that target and click a mouse.... job done.

I'm just speculating here but in the case of something like the Ka-52 using the "launching undesignated" option the operator ( who hasn't got to worry about flying) having popped off the missile towards a general area will possibly has to do not much more than watch the screen, spot a target (which may be very obvious in IR) move a cursor to overlay that target and click a mouse.... job done.

This is a bit out of my lane, but my assumption is that target designation can be done while the missile is in flight, then the optical and thermal sensors control the navigation to impact. So you could launch at 15k then designate at 2k when you have a clear view that it's a tank, not a tractor.

Thank you both. Fascinating. The fog of war is still persistent.

Same here. Thank you @notimagain and @MissConducUS for the informative discussion on missile targeting.