Ukraine Invasion: Part 43

[MagicFox]

With thanks as usual to everyone!

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Actually Howpo there is plenty of context required. But as you said, neither of us know him and we will have to agree to differ.

I am a little taken aback but what I’ve seen in the press today regarding Ben Wallace’s comment to Zelenskyy. But I agree there must be more context to it than what we’ve been given. Previously Wallace has been an ally for Ukraine and I’m certainly not writing him off yet.

Does Zelenskyy really come across as ungrateful? What are these doubting politicians expecting in terms of expressions of gratitude?

@Mb76 it was said in the context of keeping weapons flowing and it was rather clumsy, especially when he is normally pretty eloquent. I think it was an ill-judged comment, but nothing more than that.

Thank you for explaining.

Wallace can be an ally for Ukraine and still be an idiot.

Politicians needs to be extremely careful when dishing out criticism (in public) to Zelenskyy, the Russians will jump on any form disunity.

Wallace or even Biden are not under the sort of pressure Zelenskyy is, they are not literally fighting for their own survival.

It must be extremely disheartening for him to know what is required but meet with constant feet dragging from the west.

I would like to see a lot more happening than is, but I do understand the feet dragging. Unfortunately you have to accept that people like Biden and Wallace remain answerable to others.

I think history will judge the "feet dragging" to have been a huge mistake.

As has been said numerous times, Putin understands one thing only and thats strength and aggression, Ukraine cannot win if we continue this approach in arming them i.e give them the stuff they need but not in the numbers they require, UA hasn't an inexhaustible supply of troops, Russia can sustain this war for far longer, i'm not sure either Ukraine let alone the west can or will.

@Howpo re your first line - I don’t disagree, especially in the build up to February 2022.

Howpo · Today 21:26
Wallace can be an ally for Ukraine and still be an idiot.

Politicians needs to be extremely careful when dishing out criticism (in public) to Zelenskyy, the Russians will jump on any form disunity.

Wallace or even Biden are not under the sort of pressure Zelenskyy is, they are not literally fighting for their own survival.

It must be extremely disheartening for him to know what is required but meet with constant feet dragging from the west.

I so agree. Wallace’s remark came across in the general news reports not only as being simply critical, but belittling and sarcastic too.

Ukraine must be desperate and may feel they are being offered ‘jam tomorrow,’ when there may not be a tomorrow.

This video clip though puts Wallace’s remark into context, where it makes more sense. It also shows Rishi Sunak trying to staunch the wound stating that Ukraine has always been very grateful.

www.itv.com/news/2023-07-12/rishi-sunak-dismisses-defence-secs-jibe-that-ukraine-should-show-gratitude

I wonder if the Ukranian President who must be under huge prolonged strain was less than diplomatic when talking about arms supply? I am sure it wouldn't be meant as rudeness but maybe in diplomatic circles the request was a little abrupt so drew a little ill considered frustration from Wallace. A tiny spat that really shouldn't be reported in the bigger context?

Depends on how regularly it's happened. And how far Wallace may have stuck his neck out for Zelenskyy in the past.

Remember Wallace wanted the NATO job and didn't get it. I'm not convinced it was purely because Biden wanted a European and was being 'anti-British' on the basis of nationality alone.

I'm a bit more sympathetic to Wallace. As a soldier and leader, he's being continually told to send the British Army's weapons, equipment, and ammunition to Ukraine. That means those things are no longer available to the British Army, leaving his soldiers worse off if they get into a war.

He understands why it's necessary to support Ukraine. I think that leaving his own military in poorer shape as a result is making him a bit conflicted and grumpy.

There was an interesting piece on Radio 4 last night about cluster weapons. It is worth listening to as there are a range of panel interviewers and witnesses, from a Ukrainian envoy (Beelekov?) to a representative from Save The Children.

Key take outs for me were:

1. It is unrealistic to judge Ukraine from the safety of our own countries when they are fighting for their survival.
2. It is one thing to fight for the survival of your state and your social and political system, but quite a different thing to know you are fighting for your physical survival and to stop the abduction of your children.
3. The Ukrainian population wants cluster bombs now.
4. The purpose and effect of the UN is now questionable given a Permanent Member can still act with impunity over a year after invading another sovereign state.

As NATO meets this week, the US is seeking to calm its critics over sending cluster bombs to Ukraine.

Cluster munitions are banned by many countries – including the UK and most EU members. They are more indiscriminate and can leave unexploded bomblets scattered over a wide area, posing a lethal threat to civilians years after a conflict has ended. The US, which is not a signatory to the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions, argues that supplying these weapons is justified in the defence of Ukraine, that civilian areas would be avoided and that records would be kept to facilitate a clean-up operation after the war.

While some see this as a clear concession of the moral high ground, others disagree. As one US congressman put it, “the only way it erodes the moral high ground is if either you're an idiot, or you're rooting for Russia in this conflict."

What should be the ethical rules of conduct in warfare, when the goal of opposing armies is to perpetrate, and sometimes maximise, death and destruction? For some, the tragedy of war is the suspension of ethical norms. And yet, certain fundamental principles, such as proportionality of violence and discrimination between enemy combatants and non-combatants, have existed for centuries to prevent the ends being justified by any means necessary in battle. But what if the enemy has no regard for these rules? How should they be interpreted outside a philosophy seminar and in the chaos of war?

While the character of war is changing, the fundamental moral issues have not. When, in warfare, is it acceptable to violate ethical principles in the hope of achieving a greater good?

Producer: Dan Tierney.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001npdp

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-12-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Group of Seven (G7) Coalition and NATO signed agreements to offer Ukraine long-term security commitments during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12.
• Ukraine secured additional bilateral security and defense agreements during the second day of the NATO summit on July 12.
• The Russian information space continues to exhibit a generally muted response to the NATO summit. The muted Russian response belies the reality that the summit demonstrated the degree to which the 2022 Russian invasion has set back the goals for which the Kremlin claims it launched the war.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 12 and reportedly made gains in some areas.
• Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed drone strikes across Ukraine on July 12.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that the Wagner Group has almost completely handed weapons and military equipment over to the MoD.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin claimed that certain members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle may push Putin to end the war in order to depose him.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued skirmishes in the Kreminna area, where Russian forces reportedly made limited gains.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations along the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.
• Ukrainian forces continued limited mechanized assault operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian officials continue to grapple with the issue of securing Russia’s international borders.
• Russian occupation authorities are using the promise of medical treatment to coerce residents of occupied territories to receive Russian passports and relocate to Russian territory.

Extra:

• *The aim of preventing NATO expansion and, indeed, rolling back earlier rounds of NATO expansion and pushing NATO back from Russia’s borders was one of the Kremlin’s stated demands before the invasion. [which goal has spectacularly failed, as impressively as the Titanic's maiden voyage]

The failure rate of the US cluster weapons is quite low isn't it? therefore don't really see the issue with using them, they kill and destroy, just as all the other weapons used in this conflict do.

IF they will shorten the conflict and ensure Russia's defeat, then use them, i guess the issue will be whether UA gets the means to deploy in enough numbers?

Surely all the minefields laid by both sides is a far bigger issue for civilians post conflict?

Kyiv Independent Telegram

The Group of Seven (G7) officially announced plans for long-term security commitments to help Ukraine defend itself against current and future Russian aggression in a statement issued on July 12.
According to the statement, each of the G7 members will focus on long-term bilateral cooperation to help Ukraine build up a military force capable of defending the country and deterring future Russian aggression.
G7 also pledged to support Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction efforts, provide technical and financial support to address urgent needs arising from the war and help implement reforms. https://kyivindependent.com/g7-reveals-plans-to-deter-future-russian-aggression-against-ukraine/

Zelensky said that after Group of Seven leaders agreed to long-term security commitments for Ukraine at the NATO summit in Vilnius, all doubts surrounding Ukraine's ascension to NATO have been put to rest. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukraine-will-join-nato/

Locals near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant brace for potential disaster: 'It would be the end of us' https://kyivindependent.com/locals-near-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-brace-for-potential-disaster-it-would-be-the-end-of-us/
The International Atomic Energy Agency did not find evidence of explosives, but was denied full access to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

⚡️Russian Defense Ministry: Wagner hands over https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-wagner-hands-over-2-000-military-equipment-pieces-to-defense-ministry/**2,000 military equipment pieces.
This includes hundreds of heavy weapons, such as T-90, T-80, and T72B3 tanks, Grad and Uragan multiple-launch rocket systems, and Pantsir anti-aircraft systems, the defense ministry wrote.

⚡️Defense Ministry: Ukraine advances https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ukraine-advances-south-of-bakhmut/**south of Bakhmut.

⚡️Canada allocates https://kyivindependent.com/canada-allocates/ $410 million to Ukraine, 'transatlantic security'.

⚡️Norway to transfer 2 NASAMS https://kyivindependent.com/norway-donates-additional-nasams/ launchers to Ukraine.

⚡️Zelensky: ATACMS discussed https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-biden-discussed-atacms-in-vilnius-but-no-decision-yet/* but no decision yet.*

⚡️Spain to join G7 security commitments to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-join-g7-security-commitments-to-ukraine/

⚡️Erdogan: Return of Azovstal defenders now "a positive https://kyivindependent.com/erdogan-azovstal-prisoner-transfer-a-positive-in-relations-with-russia/ in relations with Russia.

General Sergey Surovikin is "resting" and "so far unavailable," head of the security committee at the Russian State Duma Andrey Kartapolov told a correspondent from SHOT news channel on July 12. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-mp-general-surovikin-resting-unavailable/

⚡️Update: Russian strike against Zaporizhzhia https://kyivindependent.com/media-russian-strike-against-zaporizhzhia-injures-18/**injures 18, including 6 children.

A court in the Serbian city of Niš rejected the request to extradite fugitive Andrii Naumov, the former head of the internal security department of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to his home country, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) reported on July 12.

⚡️Lavrov calls https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-transfer-of-f-16s-to-ukraine-seen-as-western-nuclear-threat/transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine 'nuclear threat'.

Average personnel losses, hardware up again - 23 artillery and 4 MLRS.

@howpo ^Surely all the minefields laid by both sides is a far
bigger issue for civilians post conflict?^

yeah. Russia's been laying millions of land mines. 30% of Ukraine is now mined, incl cluster mines and others. Ukraine knows roughly where their own mines are of course and can clean them up (and they are, where the land has been
de-occupied). The Russian mines will be a far greater problem though.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/russian-landmines-ukraine-psychological-warfare

Near the Dnipro a lot of mines were washed away in the floods after the dam was destroyed and no one knows where they landed. They will be a danger for decades, probably. Plus the Russians deliberately booby trap houses, facilities and WARNING DISTRESSING also soft toys.

It gets worse than that too according to two reports of separate incidents.

I think there's not a lot of situations in which cluster munitions are right, but this is definitely one of them

UNITED24 Media Telegram

❗️Zelenskyy discussed with European Council President Charles Michel the possibility of launching negotiations on Ukraine's EU membership by the end of this year

Security Guarantees for Ukraine
- assistance to Ukraine in the protection and prevention of new aggression;
- supply of weapons, provision of military defense, training, and cooperation in the field of intelligence and cyber security;
- promoting the stability of the economy and energy, providing technical and financial assistance;
- immediate consultations in the event of a new aggression to provide Ukraine with everything necessary for defense as soon as possible.
- facilitating the bringing of the Russian Federation to responsibility and steps of an economic and legal nature aimed at punishing Russia and increasing its spending on war.
- further support for the democratic development of Ukraine.
Before the NATO summit in 2024, Ukraine must win and sign security guarantees. They will operate until the moment of joining NATO.

The UN Secretary-General offers Russia to continue the "grain deal" in exchange for the return of Rossilgospbank to the SWIFT international payment system. This was one of the Kremlin's main demands regarding the agreement, which it "sees no reason to continue."
The Financial Times wrote that the European Union could connect a subsidiary of Rossilgospbank to SWIFT, so that the Russian Federation can continue the agreement and carry out transactions with grain and fertilizers simultaneously. The idea of creating a "daughter" was voiced by Moscow during negotiations with the participation of UN representatives.

Ukraine returned the bodies of 19 POWs who died in Russian captivity. Four more bodies are expected to be returned soon

❗️Erdoğan stated that he did not deceive anyone in his story with the Azov command because he did not negotiate with anyone.

Zelenskyy assured that Ukraine is very grateful to Britain and its people for all of their support.
"I think we have always been very grateful to the United Kingdom, always grateful to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of Defense, Mr. Wallace..." the president said.

"The hospital needs slippers, left ones"
Author: Anna Gin via Facebook.
"Remember the six-word story attributed to Hemingway — "For sale: baby shoes, never worn." A beautiful literary legend...
And today I received a list from the hospital — consumables: detergent, toilet paper. There, between the diapers and garbage bags, there is a strange item "Left slippers 1:4". I am texting to say everything is clear, I will bring everything, but I did not get it at all about the slippers.
And they answer me: "Most of the military are right-handed, so they are right-footed on landmines." They explain so calmly, so mundanely. And I'm sitting in front of the laptop and I can't utter a single word anymore. Modern small prose.

Kyiv, consequences of debris falling.
Two people were injured.

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin claimed that certain members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle may push Putin to end the war in order to depose him.

I hope Girkin is right about this, although I'm sure the 'inner circle' will still be keen to hold on to the Ukrainian land grab they have made.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russia has already built a replacement for the sunken cruiser Moskva.
A new missile carrier, the Cyclone, has joined the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It became the first warship built at the Kerch Shipyard in 25 years. The Cyclone is armed with Kalibr missiles, which it intends to use to bombard Ukraine.

"Ukraine will use US-transferred cluster munitions only outside cities, Defense Minister Reznikov said on the sidelines of a NATO summit" - Politico
In addition, Ukraine will inform partners about each use of such ammunition.

Russian hackers have attacked https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-hackers-lured-embassy-workers-ukraine-with-an-ad-cheap-bmw-2023-07-12/ at 22 foreign embassies working in Kyiv through an ad for a cheap BMW.
In June, the hackers intercepted a Polish diplomat's message about the sale of a car, which he sent by e-mail to various embassies. They duplicated the ad, disguised malware in a BMW photo album, and sent their own ad to the embassies. This gave them access to the diplomats' devices.
Hackers from the Cozy Bear group may be behind the attack, as the US authorities have linked them to Russian intelligence services.

🇺🇦Zelensky insists that, contrary to the text of NATO's decision, the Alliance will not put forward political requirements for inviting Ukraine to join NATO.

Peskov said that the Kremlin considers the provision of security guarantees for Ukraine from the G7 countries as an encroachment on Russia's security.

British Defense Secretary Wallace urged Ukraine to express more gratitude to its partners for their military support instead of constantly demanding the unlocking of new types of weapons.

Zelensky assured that Ukraine is very grateful to Britain and its people for their support.
"It seems to me that we have always been very grateful to the United Kingdom, always grateful to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of Defense, Mr. Wallace...

We summarize the preliminary results of military aid to Ukraine announced at the NATO summit in Vilnius. Here's who will be giving Ukraine what:

🇬🇧 Britain - thousands of rounds of ammunition for Challenger 2 tanks, more than 70 CVRT combat vehicles, including FV103 Spartan, FV107 Scimitar, FV106 Samson tracked vehicles; repair of equipment and creation of a rehabilitation center.

🇩🇪 Germany - two Patriot systems, 40 Marder infantry vehicles, 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks, five Bergepanzer 2 repair vehicles and 20 thousand pieces of artillery ammunition.

🇫🇷 France - SCALP long-range missiles (analogous to Storm Shadow), according to media reports - 50 units.

🇳🇴 Norway - two NASAMS air defense systems, namely two additional fire control centers, two launchers and spare parts, as well as one thousand Black Hornet reconnaissance drones.
🇦🇺 Australia - 30 Bushmaster armored vehicles.

🇨🇦 Canada - armored vehicles, but it is not yet known what kind.
🇯🇵 Japan - a drone detection system.
**
✈️ A coalition of 11 countries has also been formed to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters. Training will begin in late summer.

"Putin, The Hague is waiting for you", - the inscription on the building of the city council in Vilnius 🇱🇹

The International Atomic Energy Agency did not find evidence of explosives, but was denied full access to the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

I'm not sure what use an inspection is if the Russians can deny access to the parts of the plant it doesn't want the IAEA to see 🙄

Yes. Apparently the majority of piano music written for one-handed playing is written for the left hand.

It emerged as a genre after WWI.

During attacks, officers would hold their right hand out with their handgun (rifles were for other ranks).

well yes!

Every time I hear that the IAEA 'found nothing' I think "well yes but you didn't see all the important areas!"