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Ukraine Invasion: Part 42

986 replies

MagicFox · 24/06/2023 13:32

Setting this up early given the speed of current events

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145
darkmodeon · 24/06/2023 15:12

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thank you very much for your post of Today 14:35 I was directed here by a helpful poster who I have forgotten the name of. I'm trying to get my head round it all.

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 15:13

AmeliaWarnerBros · 24/06/2023 15:10

For someone not very knowledgeable- what do we think could seriously come of this? Imminently, & longterm? I'm listening to Mario, LBC, watching The Guardian shorts in YouTube, reading here & on Tattle (sorry 😔), & just need clarification. My anxiety likes a clear-ish explanation...

unfortunately this isn’t a situation that lends itself to clarity, it’s a shit show of Putin’s making and it’ll need to just play out.

BippityBobbityBoo · 24/06/2023 15:14

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks so much for the explanation, I’ve just read it out to my family, they should have you on the radio! I realise my question was very naive but hopefully I’ve helped others who are similarly clueless and wondered the same

SunshinyDay1 · 24/06/2023 15:16

Russia army would crushed wagoner I am in no time doubt that any march on Moscow is dine so with background door agreements between Rusland miliary and wagoner to hey Russian someone else as leader.

Mb76 · 24/06/2023 15:17

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 15:07

Wagner 2 hours from Moscow?

You mean a Russian army can actually move along a highway fast after all?

What if they were already there to begin with? It’s just a guess, I wonder if they have some divisions scattered all over the country, just biding their time?

Yikesno · 24/06/2023 15:18

Thank you @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 15:18

Where is the Russian Air Force? Trenches and machine gun posts in Moscow don’t seem particularly robust against Wagner. If Prigozhin rolls into Moscow that’s a big oppsych win.

notimagain · 24/06/2023 15:20

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 15:18

Where is the Russian Air Force? Trenches and machine gun posts in Moscow don’t seem particularly robust against Wagner. If Prigozhin rolls into Moscow that’s a big oppsych win.

Question has been asked a lot elsewhere

One possible answer (of many) might be: If you were in Putin's shoes ATM would you want bombed up aircraft anywhere near Moscow???

MissConductUS · 24/06/2023 15:21

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 15:18

Where is the Russian Air Force? Trenches and machine gun posts in Moscow don’t seem particularly robust against Wagner. If Prigozhin rolls into Moscow that’s a big oppsych win.

I've seen reports that they have been active and have suffered losses from Wagner. They also bombed the oil terminal I mentioned above to keep it from being captured by Wagner.

Mb76 · 24/06/2023 15:23

Chatillon · 24/06/2023 14:48

I disagree.

Putin loves his country. He loves its history, its churches, its architecture and its natural environment. All that encapsulates Russia Putin will not lose. Putin is not a man who is going to unleash nuclear war and erase everything. You are totally wrong on that.

But worrying about an ex-convict, hot dog seller, self-appointed Napoleon in the form of Prighozin is a different matter. That is the worry.

I still wonder, and will do so until someone tells me otherwise, where Peskov is right now.

I disagree with you. “Love” is too strong a world for someone like Putin. He loves being in power of the powerful nation. He doesn’t care about his people or their futures, that much is evident. Huge parts of Russian Federation live in acute poverty. Putin has done nothing to make their lives easier since he came to power.

seeing him lose it all is what I’m hoping for

ismu · 24/06/2023 15:24

.

strawberriesarenot · 24/06/2023 15:24

Thank you.

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 15:26

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 15:18

Where is the Russian Air Force? Trenches and machine gun posts in Moscow don’t seem particularly robust against Wagner. If Prigozhin rolls into Moscow that’s a big oppsych win.

I believe there may be a lack of air force and air force pilots. There wasn't many left. Hence why they were drafting in overweight pilots in their 40s or older who hadn't been active for some years to serve in Ukraine.

Surplus2requirements · 24/06/2023 15:31

I know this is serious and could have ramifications worldwide but I don't really care.
The Russian military machine is attacking itself and I hope it rips itself to pieces

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 15:32

Twitter showing videos allegedly showing huge queues at Rostov station to leave.

Also twitter. Videos allegedly showing Wagner detaining some TikTok warriors.

Of course no way to verify authenticity of these but interesting to see they are circulating - someone is either very good on social media or these events are really happening. Both explanations worthy of note.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 15:32

Chatillon · 24/06/2023 15:11

"What's the world worth without Russia"

And here is the nub. You can read this either way.

Look for the positive.
Turn it around.
Every cloud has a silver lining.

He told us what he is not prepared to do. I can only think US intel already knows this.

I still come back to Peskov. Where is he? We might need him as the next best after Putin.

You think he might become a figurehead pulled by Prigozhin?

Well, it would certainly be more palatable for the rest of the world than dealing with Priz.

@AmeliaWarnerBros as @Igotjelly says no one really knows at this point.

I am not a trained observer, this are just my thoughts

If Prigozhin gets in power he'll have to work with the administration of government, as everyone does. At the moment Wagner is lean, very mean and keen. When they start actually governing, that leanness will soften and their keenness will slow. You can't get computer technicians to work at keeping the network going at the point of a gun for more than a few hours; you can't force doctors and nurses to work for long the same way; taxi drivers are still going to take an hour to get from A to B in the rush hour. Forms take time to be processed and that slows things up.

So if he gets in power, he'll have to learn how to rule once he's destroyed his enemy factions. He will have to rely on the existing civil service and on Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of the Bank of Russia for economic matters. That will slow him up a bit.

Civil society within Russia is going to become less safe in the medium term either way. All those veterans with PTSD are going to be volatile at best and violent at worst. The children of such men are going to be brutalized and will become brutal in their turn, unless great efforts are made to curb this which just isn't going to happen. If Priz is in charge, Wagner soldiers might be able to swagger around and make it worse, faster, but I'm not sure it'll be that much worse in the long term.

It seems possible and even likely that Russia moves its society onto a permanently more militaristic footing.

Priz will have to honour some of Russia's contracts, specially with China - the Govt signed a contract recently where China can gain access to Russia's rare earths more easily. If he doesn't honour them, it will become a rogue state that no one at all wants to do business with.

They will, as a country, retain their seat on the UN but they're going to be pretty untrusted for a long time to come.

In the end time will pass and Russia will be more militaristic, but it will also stabilize and then slowly links will probably be built up again - merchants and tradespeople will always try to make money. The oligarchs are unlikely to go away and they want wider contact with the world.

The West has been Warned In No Uncertain Terms that they need to build up their militaries again. This doesn't necessarily mean war as such, it means simply that war is less likely to happen because Russia is opportunistic and will prey on anyone it considers weak. Some of the -istans might have to worry much more than the West.

In the end, there is a small chance a wider and worse war will break out but for the short term I think it's much more likely that Russia's going to be concerned with itself more than anything else. Looking further than the short term, the cost will be huge to Russia in terms of civilization and people killed but in the medium to long term things will settle.

Regarding longer term stability I think that's going to be a problem because of food shortages. Combined with the ecological changes coming, it's not a good scenario. A more militaristic Russia is probably not going to want to work on managing the changing world climate with others constructively.

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 15:33

Samuel Armani at samarmani2
BREAKING: Lipetsk Governor Igor Artamonov says that the Wagner Group has entered Lipetsk region

Thats 450km from Moscow.

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 15:35

Also suggests attempts to slow the advance to Moscow haven't been successful yet.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 15:38

They don't have anyone to slow them! That's why I think they'll probably get there unless serious negotiations break out.

DrBlackbird · 24/06/2023 15:38

Okay thanks @MissConductUS and yes @notimagain Putin will not want to lose any aircraft particularly on the outskirts of Moscow. All these events seem surreal.

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 15:38

Reports are that they literally digging up the M4 in Lipetsk region to slow down the advance.

Nothing says you are in control like a desperate digger being your defensive option of choice.

notimagain · 24/06/2023 15:40

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 15:26

I believe there may be a lack of air force and air force pilots. There wasn't many left. Hence why they were drafting in overweight pilots in their 40s or older who hadn't been active for some years to serve in Ukraine.

My previous reply to @DrBlackbird was probably a bit flippant TBH...

The more considered reply would be a big problem may be the current disposition of Russian Specialist Ground Attack Fighters - they will be mostly off " down south", deployed for ops against the Ukrainian Forces....how quickly can they do an about face?....Historically the units around Moscow were very much part of the Air Defence system (PVO Strany/V-PVO in legacy speak)...

Secondly Wagner seem to be moving so quickly, lines so ill defined, that it's going to be very hard for the Russian Air Force to perform Close Air Support or similar on behalf of their own ground forces without getting Forward Air Controllers or whatever the Russians use these days in place between ground and air to coordinate attacks.

If Wagner stops advancing quickly then it's possible it's more likely we might see Russian Air Force involvement..assuming they are still loyal to the powers in Moscow...

GCalltheway · 24/06/2023 15:43

Can anyone confirm Putin has been flown out of Moscow?

WhathaveIdoneagain · 24/06/2023 15:43

Someone asked earlier what Hungary's Orbán might think about the events. No comment from the Hungarian government so far. Orbán himself was at the funeral of his mentor today.

Thank you for keeping us all informed. 💐