Thread 25, Sunak - Peerages, Privileges & the Covid Inquiry

[Notonthestairs]

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4806467-thread-24-sunak-and-the-local-elections-aftermath?page=1

Are there any Tory safe seats left? This used to be the safest one in the country, the majority has decreased with every election. Wokingham was the second safest, Redwood’s majority is now down to 7,000. I honestly don’t think they can bank on winning any seat next time.

Yes you are right - can't be many safe seats now.

Here @TelePolitics predicts that mortgage holders could tip the balance in a third of all Tory seats at next election - 121 out of a total of 352 currently held by the party - including Jeremy Hunt’s Surrey seat…

twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1671432911654903809?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

But no doubt Frost will flog "That's not my Brexit" gibberish.

Apparently our inflations is very similar to Europes, that is nearly 3% points less, I thought Sunak was meant to be good at maths?

I'd guess he and the more foolishly optimistic amongst them are hoping things will have improved a bit by the GE. The Tories will probably try and go to the bitter end, as the full 5 years is usually what happens with governments who aren't confident they'll get a majority next time (eg 2015, 2010, 97, 92 etc). January 2025 might still feel like a long time away. The prospect of this lot for another 19 months certainly fucking does from where I'm sitting anyway...

Giving evidence on the UK's preparedness ahead of Covid?

Today it's Dowden and Hunt's turn

(Oliver Dowden is being asked about his time in the Cabinet Office from 2018 onwards, In that job he had responsibility for resilience, which included emergency planning and response.)

Their five years is up in December next year and winter elections are bad generally but particularly for the Tories because of their voter demographic. My money’s on May next year and I can’t see much improvement happening in that time.

Parliament has to dissolve no later than December 2024, but the election could be 28th January 2025 at the latest. I don't see them taking the season into account, they didn't in 2019 and it evidently didn't stop their vote from getting out. They might prefer just before Christmas to depressing January though!

But the Tory voter profile in 2019 was far from typical. They won by taking seats they won’t have a prayer of retaining next time. They need to maximise their over 65 vote next time and they traditionally don’t turn out so readily when it’s cold, wet and dark. A December election was an aberration, it was the first since 1923.

The Tories did best amongst the over 65s and turnout was, as usual, highest in that group.

The British Election Study doesn't indicate that the oldest voters turned out less in 2019 than in recent elections.

https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/age-and-voting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/

Over 75s turnout was lower in 2019 than it was in 2017, but around the same as it was in 2015 which was held in May. They actually suggest the season as a possible explanation why over 60s as a whole voted less in 2019 than 2017, but that doesn't address why the winter effect would be more pronounced in the younger elderly but not the very oldest. Nor why the oldest voters would turn out at the same levels in May 2015 and December 2019.

I know people did worry at the time, but it's just not a very strong reason. Especially not for a group of people who will mostly know or suspect that the electorate will be serving them their P45s, and will have every incentive to drag their terms out.

Maybe the very eldest are more likely to opt for postal votes? Sorry, couldn’t see if it mentioned that in the article.

Could be, but that would be equally an option for all groups.

In my case a postal vote is actually more difficult as my nearest post box is twice as far from my house than my polling station.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/21/children-raised-under-uk-austerity-shorter-than-european-peers-study

Experts have said a poor national diet and cuts to the NHS are to blame. But they have also pointed out that height is a strong indicator of general living conditions, including illness and infection, stress, poverty and sleep quality.

https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1670906625417248769

This thread is from the other day but it does involve Hunt and the Covid inquiry. Turns out that much like Boris and Cobra meetings, Hunt as health Secretary couldn’t be arsed to turn up to pandemic planning meetings or exercises. Hoping he was questioned about this today.

Hear there were some serious truth bombs at the 1922 Committee in address by @FrankLuntz to Tory MPs.

Said anyone with a 15k or less majority is "at this moment in time" under threat of losing their seat - added: "this is what CCHQ are not telling you."

1/2

twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1671565929212248064?s=46&t=Uw4lJNwxFZFnX0Xs3doHYg

The sounds of CVs being updated. No doubt a few feelers out for Executive Director posts.

Are they too stupid to work out what has been obvious for months to everyone else?

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

Are they too stupid to work out what has been obvious for months to everyone else?

Assume that’s a rhetorical question 😂

Have you showed Clav and Janiie that?

Some of them do seem to have clocked it already. There are a few 5 figure majorities amongst the forty odd who've confirmed they're going.

Clav and Janiie will just say 'oh well, the polls will tighten and remember 2019'.

But in 2019 the polls were nothing at all like this, certainly not in aggregate - they underestimated the Tory vote badly, but not on this scale, and methodology has also advanced.

The polls will no doubt tighten from here on in, but Keir Starmer would have to start doing a full Lord Summerisle in Hyde Park for him to lose.

Strangely the Queen of Links isn't very interested.

Also of note, that was May's prediction, the polls since then have worsened a little for the Tories.

https://twitter.com/jpxan71/status/1671487814058254337

Starmer asks about the honours list and repossessions/mortgages. Probably not quite the day to boast about how well they are doing on tackling inflation. STOP THE BOATS. Now Streeting has asked him to correct the record on the part about NHS waiting lists since claiming he’s bringing them down is untrue.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/slippery-rishi-sunak-accused-misleading-30291464

Friendly media

https://bylinetimes.com/2023/06/21/conservative-party-exempts-selected-media-outlets-from-paying-to-cover-its-conference/

Can't help thinking that obliging journalists to pay for entry might make them a bit more irritated than they are when they get in free.