Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Albania tells some home truths at the UN:

Albania’s Permanent Representative to the UN absolutely wrecks Russia in front of a full room.

He says the Russian Army clearly destroyed the Kakhovka dam and that there’s no point to listen to the Russians as they are a bunch of liars.

“How many times have they lied”?

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1666514248401289216?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Heartbreaking article:

kyivindependent.com/they-are-destroying-us-people-plea-to-escape-flooded-russian-occupied-areas/

These eyewitness accounts stood out:

She said Russian troops set up checkpoints in the less-flooded areas to "prevent" locals from escaping the disaster area or saving others, and she heard of people drowning.
"They are destroying (us)," she cried.
The water rose in a matter of hours, said Serhiy. Many people are sitting on the upper floors, while some residents are trying to rescue their loved ones.
The victims' attempts to escape by boat or otherwise were thwarted by Russian forces, who wouldn't let anyone leave if they didn't have a Russian passport. Numerous people even reported being fired upon when they tried to escape the flooded areas.

"The orcs abandoned the city," said Yevhen Rischuk, Oleshky's mayor in exile. "People are sitting on the roofs of houses. There are no boats in the city. The curfew is not canceled. Genocide."
Worse, the Russians allegedly destroyed people's means of escape. Serhiy's parents told him the Russians went through the town and rounded up or destroyed all the boats they could find in the weeks before triggering the explosion that caused Ukraine's most lurid catastrophe in decades.
"They stole the boats before all this... all the landings, they carried out all the boats," said Serhiy, paraphrasing what his parents told him. "It's like they were preparing for this to specially create a situation so that no one could escape."
"We thought they were looting. Now I understand that there was a specific command to remove all means of flotation so that people couldn't save themselves."
Oleh said that his aunt told him a similar story.
"They (the boats) were taken away," he said, quoting her. "People whose houses were locked kept their boats. The ones on the pier were smashed, shot up, or taken away."
The occupation authorities themselves have vanished from Oleshky, Serhiy said. But civilians trying to flee were blocked from doing so.
"Yesterday, people tried to escape, so (the Russians) fired assault rifles in the air, and didn't allow anyone to leave," Oleh said.
Only people with Russian passports were being allowed to leave, multiple people confirmed.

If hypothetically a NATO member decided to put boots on the ground in Ukraine (say for instance Poland) but as an individual nation rather than as a NATO member, does that mean that any retaliatory attack by Russia inside of Ukraine would not invoke Article 5? I assume an attack on Polish (for argument sakes) would be a trigger.

*Polish soil - that should be

'The Kakhovka HPP was designed and built to withstand a nuclear strike from the outside. Therefore, any talk that it could somehow collapse by itself is pointless. This is out of the question', says Mykola Kalinin, chief engineer of Ukrhydroproject

twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1666570912827682823?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

So... destroyed from within and perhaps below. And it's been under Russian control a year.

Why the fuck, why the blazing, hell-ridden fuck aren't the leaders doing more? While literally people drown?

I think this was mentioned before and the consensus was that it wouldn't do. But I shall research!

I do have a vague recollection of us discussing it previously (perhaps following the missile falling into Poland and discussion around articles 4 and 5).

There -are- people, knowledgeable ones, who are saying it could have been a maintenance issue. The explosions could apparently feasibly have been ball bearings, so an engineer said.

it's also apparently happened before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayano-Shushenskaya_power_station_accident

(Which does not reduce Russia's responsibility, of course).

Interestingly they discussed this on Ukraine the latest yesterday and were very clear that it may well have been a fuck up but, as you say, that doesn't take away from Russia's responsibility.

But if the following is true, that doesn’t sound like an accident.

"They stole the boats before all this... all the landings, they carried out all the boats," said Serhiy, paraphrasing what his parents told him. "It's like they were preparing for this to specially create a situation so that no one could escape."

Bellingcat are suggesting caution and pointing to incompetence on the Russian's part and the decrepitude of ancient Soviet installations. But wouldn't have happened if this is the case without the invasion. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1665897509179236355.html

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2023

Key Takeaways

• The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian officials continued to accuse Russian forces of destroying the KHPP dam out of fear that Ukrainian forces would land on the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
• The New York Times (NYT) reported that engineering and munitions experts believe that a deliberate explosion was the likely cause of KHPP dam’s collapse on June 6.
• Russian forces and occupation authorities are responding to the flooding in Kherson Oblast with a great degree of disorganization and thereby exacerbating harm to the civilian population of occupied areas.
• Select Wagner Group-affiliated Russian senior military officers continue to posture as effective commanders to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin by capitalizing on high-profile military events.
• The pro-Teplinsky interview is likely part of an information operation aimed at undermining the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Wagner-affiliated commanders’ reactive public relations campaigns may not be sufficient to deflect from battlefield realities.
• Russian and Ukrainian officials each accused the other state of damaging an ammonia pipeline that runs through Kharkiv Oblast and causing an ammonia leak.
• Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Kreminna.
• Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction as of June 7.
• Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
• Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on June 7.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly engaged in skirmishes in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian authorities continue to restrict international travel for those eligible for military service.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to establish patronage programs between Russian regions and occupied territories in order to integrate occupied territories into Russia.

Extra info from today's assessment:

Near-infrared (NIR) imagery captured at 0400 am ET on June 7 indicates that the flooding is heavily disrupting Russian prepared defensive positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River

Flooding will likely worsen and further change the geography in Kherson Oblast over the next 72 hours.

The flooding has destroyed many Russian first line field fortifications that the Russian military intended to use to defend against Ukrainian attacks. Rapid flooding has likely forced Russian personnel and military equipment in Russian main concentration points in Oleshky and Hola Prystan to withdraw.

The amount of Russian heavy equipment lost in the first 24 hours of flooding is also unclear. [of course that's true for Ukraine too]

NYT reported that the dam was first breached in its middle, close to the KHPP on the Russian-held east (left) riverbank, and that more of the dam collapsed throughout the day, a pattern that one expert characterized as inconsistent with the dam failing due to prior damage. [from earlier in the war]

Nato will hold an emergency meeting on Thursday, secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said, citing the “outrageous destruction” of the frontline dam.
The meeting will include Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, who said the meeting was called at his request, adding that Stoltenberg had promised “Nato mechanisms will be used to provide humanitarian assistance.”

Is that a ‘normal’ procedure ie to use nato for humanitarian relief?

I'm not disagreeing, but would like to point out that before they retreated from Kherson they did the same to the boats there.

Ah okay thanks for info Ducks so not impossible that this might be coincidence. Possible but perhaps not necessarily probable.

Hi @savory :)

thanks for the link - wonder how good the maintenance was when it was under Ukraine's control?

But good or not, a guy I follow says that

The rotor/shaft/turbines have a lot of gear oil, and at the turbine end the oil seals are in the water. Oil and seals need inspection and replacement. Oil is pumped, cooled and filtered. Same deal with wind turbines catching fire.

So the maintenance really does need to be done; a year is too long.

I wonder how much the AF of ukraine lost in this flooding

More from the ISW

Wasn’t that the case in Kosovo?

UNITED24 Media Telegram

In a comment to Reuters, Secretary of the NSDC Danilov noted that Ukraine has not yet launched the planned counteroffensive, and its start will be obvious to everyone when it happens.

The schedule for the start of the Ukrainian offensive has been approved, — President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Bild.

🇪🇺 EU ambassadors on Wednesday failed to reach a political agreement on the introduction of the 11th package of sanctions against Russia and will continue negotiations next week, — Politico

In the occupied Hola Prystan in the Kherson region, the Russians are driving out the inhabitants of two-story houses and equipping firing positions on their roofs, — the General Staff

Germany handed Ukraine eight Bandvagn BV206 all-terrain vehicles, two MAN HX81 tractors, 16 patrol cars, 14 Vector drones, three drone detection systems and 2,000 ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns.

Serbia will strengthen its partnership with the US Armed Forces.
From June 16 to June 30, Serbia will conduct the Platinum Wolf 23 military exercises in the republic's south, jointly with the United States and ten other partner countries. On February 27, 2022, after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Belgrade announced a moratorium on participation in international maneuvers. [this is a considerable pivot away from their previous heavily pro-Russia stance]

❗️The Swiss Senate adopted an amendment to the law allowing the re-export of weapons to Ukraine.
The upper house of the parliament confirmed this position on Wednesday by 22 votes.
But a few days ago, the lower house of the country's parliament voted against such an amendment, and now it will have to consider this issue again.

Zelenskyy, discussed the ecological and humanitarian consequences of destroying the Kakhovska HPP by telephone with Macron.

Erdogan had a telephone conversation with Zelenskyy.
Erdoğan proposed to create a commission with the participation of "experts from the opposing sides, the UN and the international community for a detailed investigation of the explosion at the Kakhovska NPP dam"

Zelenskyy is shocked by the reaction of the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross to the destruction of the dam
According to him, the largest international organizations either did not respond to requests for help or responded with a refusal "in a diplomatic manner."

❗️Lithuania will send aid to Ukraine in connection with the destruction of Kakhovska HPP, — Ministry of Internal Affairs of Lithuania.
Germany, Czech Republic and Austria have also transferred aid, which is already on its way to Ukraine.

Latvia will provide Ukraine with €200,000 to overcome the consequences of Russia's undermining of the Kakhovska HPP, — Shmyhal said

The EU is already channeling aid through its civil protection mechanism thanks to initial offers from Germany, Austria, and Lithuania.
Germany will provide 5,000 water filters and 56 generators, and Austria — 20 water tanks and ten mud pumps, which are currently on their way to Ukraine.
In addition, Lithuania and Germany will also provide shelter equipment, including tents, beds, and blankets.

As a result of the flood, three people are already known to have died, Oleshky Mayor Yevhen Ryschuk said in an interview with Suspilne
"The city is 90% flooded, and the water level on some streets reaches three meters," Ryschuk said.

Over the past 24 hours, the Kakhovsky reservoir in the Nikopol district has become shallow by almost 1 m, the water level continues to fall, reports "Ukrhydroenergo".
The head of Kherson Regional Military Administration, Prokudin, reported that as of the morning of June 8, the average level of flooding is 5.61 meters.
600 square kilometers of the Kherson region were underwater, 32% — on the right bank and 68% — on the left. Evacuation is in progress.
He added that people in the Kherson region are tired, but now they have everything they need, and many residents do not want to leave the region.
The mayor of Mykolaiv Sienkovych reported that as of 8:00 a.m., the water in Mykolaiv's water area had risen to 97 cm.

Zelenskyy arrived in the Kherson region, where he held a meeting on liquidation of the consequences of the explosion of the Kakhovska HPP dam

🇪🇸 The Netherlands and Ukraine are pressuring Spain to join the "coalition of patriots" and provide Kyiv with an anti-missile defense battery to defend against Russian attacks, — El Pais. [The Spanish Patriot is currently in Turkiye] but Erdoğan is said to be opposed to withdrawing the Patriot before the contract expires at the end of this year.

Russian forces destroyed John Deere sprayers but claimed they were Leopard tanks

❗️According to our estimates, it was Russia that blew up the Kakhovska HPP, — Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel Eli Cohen.

⚡️The elite of the Russian Federation is dissatisfied with Putin's chances of winning the war against Ukraine, — Bloomberg

👨‍🎓 A record number of Ukrainian higher education institutions — 32 — were included in the annual Times Higher Education Impact Rankings ranking of the world's most sustainable universities.

Now "a few" UN and WHO off-road vehicles are still in one of Kyiv's parking lots, fully ready for off-road trips.
"A few" white, clean SUVs.
No vandalism, just expressing a position.

Although in this instance I would imagine it’ll be more about facilitating aid and assistance getting to impacted areas.

Live Ukraine Telegram

Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anušauskas said that the Ukrainian counteroffensive will begin regardless of the fact that Russia blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as the timing has already been confirmed

Kherson. The level of water is so high that the rescuers have trouble navigating through electrical power lines. [footage shown]

Water levels in Kherson are still rising, but the rate of rise has decreased, the Interior Ministry reported.
The most difficult situation is in the Korabelny district, where more than 1,800 houses are currently flooded. Rescuers evacuated over 1900 people, including 103 children.

❗️Occupied Oleshky in Kherson region is 90% flooded, according to Mayor Yevhen Ryshchuk.

Big explosion reported in temporarily occupied Luhansk

A protest is taking place near the UN office in Kyiv, with participants chanting "Shame" and "Get Russia out of the UN". They also threw down Russian-language books at the entrance to the UN Office.
The action is peaceful, there have been no clashes so far, and law enforcement officers are present at the scene

Putting aside responsibility for the dam, why the hell is the response to the humanitarian crisis so lukewarm? There are soldiers shooting at unarmed civilians, trying to escape the floods! Why are our politicians silent on this issue? The relief organizations? Every hour counts - why are we not mobilizing to help them?

If we ever needed boots on the ground for a peacekeeping operation, this is it.

The peacekeepers will get shot at. Can't have that.

it's been pointed out that the agricultural transport routes will have been flood- damaged, further than the damage already inflicted on them.