Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

I agree, I don't understand why there isn't more outrage and action, even with the issue of waiting to be sure of the facts, the shooting at people trying to escape is reason enough, and the very obvious need of help there. Anywhere else (I.e. not in a war zone) and there would be help flocking there.

To be fair, DEC is responding.

https://www.dec.org.uk/article/ukraine-dec-charities-respond-to-humanitarian-fallout-after-kakhovka-dam-breach

Russian media report that water supply restrictions in Crimea begin today.

They blame drought for this.

twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1666741662633082888?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

facepalm

.........

I've just seen this on Twitter and it feels really apt. https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1666709515809456130?s=20

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️IAEA says work ongoing (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-2/) to ensure Zaporizhzhia cooling pond has maximum amount of water after dam destruction.

⚡️Military: Ukrainian forces (https://kyivindependent.com/military-bakhmut-update-june-7/) go on offensive near Bakhmut, making advances ranging from 200 to 1,100 meters.

⚡️Ministry: 10,000 hectares of arable land expected (https://kyivindependent.com/agriculture-ministry-10-000-hectares-of-land-in/) to be flooded in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️ State Emergency Service: Water level in Kherson has risen (https://kyivindependent.com/state-emergency-service-water-level-in-kherson-up-by-5-meters/) by 5.51 meters. [as of yesterday evening]

30 settlements flooded after Kakhovka dam destruction (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-kakhovka-dam-explosion-floods-30-settlements-10-000-hectares-of-farmland-expected-to-submerge/);

⚡️Ministry: $40 million allocated to restore (https://kyivindependent.com/infrastructure-ministry-40-million-allocated-to-restore-water-pipelines-impacted-by-kahkovka-dam-disaster/) water pipelines impacted by Kahkovka dam disaster.
The Infrastructure Ministry reported on June 7 that it had allocated Hr 1.5 billion ($40 million) for the construction of water pipelines in Kherson Oblast and other parts of southern Ukraine to restore centralized water supply to areas impacted by the Kakhovka dam disaster.

⚡️US State Department: 20,000 people must be resettled (https://kyivindependent.com/us-state-department-20-000-people-need-to-be-resettled-due-to-kakhkovka-dam-explosion/) due to destruction of Kakhovka dam.

⚡️ Minister: 65% of bomb shelters audited (https://kyivindependent.com/only-65-percent-bomb-shelters-audited-suitable-for-use/) in Kyiv technically suitable for use. [but the summary of the rest was that many are in a very poor state]

⚡️ Governor: Lviv airport may (https://kyivindependent.com/governor-lviv-airport-may-reopen-for-humanitarian-purposes/) reopen for humanitarian
purposes.

⚡️ Ukraine's partners provide (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-international-aid/) millions in aid after Kakhovka dam disaster.
Ukraine's international partners have provided $170 million in assistance following the Kakhovka dam disaster, and several EU countries have promised further aid.
Such countries include Austria, Poland, Germany, Latvia, and Finland.

⚡️White House says (https://kyivindependent.com/whitehouserussiablame/) it is still assessing origin of Kakhovka dam destruction, but Russia ultimately to blame.

⚡️ World Bank decreases (https://kyivindependent.com/world-bank-decreased-ukraines-gdp-growth-forecast-for-2023/) Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2023.
In its June report, the World Bank set Ukraine's GDP forecast for the following year at 2%, compared to 3.3% in January.
The forecast reportedly worsened due to Russia's attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure at the end of 2022 and the departure of a significant part of the country's working demographic abroad.

⚡️ Ukraine, OECD sign (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-agrees-with-oecd-on-4-year-partnership/) 4-year reconstruction, reform agreement.
This agreement is aimed at moving Ukraine closer to the OECD's standards and ultimately support Ukraine's accession to the EU.

⚡️Ukraine wants to produce (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-produce-nato-standard-155-mm-shells/)NATO-standard** 155 mm shells.
Ukraine's state-owned military enterprise Ukroboronprom is attempting to begin production of the 155 mm artillery shells, the company's spokesperson Natalia Sad said.

⚡️Lawyers: New head of top Ukrainian judicial body Roman Ihnatov may have Russian citizenship (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-62/).
Ihnatov was an investigator in Russia in 1995-1996.
Under Russian law, investigators and all other state officials must have Russian citizenship. Meanwhile, Ukrainian law explicitly bans people with foreign citizenship from holding state jobs.

Huge hardware losses again and 730 troops.
Ragnar Gudmundsson
HIGHLIGHTS FOR JUN 8:
■ June's losses in monetary terms already surpass April
■ Today's troop losses well above 7-day average
■ Most landbased equipment losses since Sep 8
■ Double-digit vehicle, artillery, tank, APV & drone losses
■ Special equipment losses reach 500

Article 6 of the North Atlantic Treaty, second bullet point is possibly relevant...

*Article 6: For the purpose of Article 5, an armed attack on one or more of the Parties is deemed to include an armed attack:

• on the territory of any of the Parties in Europe or North America, on the Algerian Departments of France 2, on the territory of Turkey or on the Islands under the jurisdiction of any of the Parties in the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer;
• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

As for the UN and UN peacekeeping..that needs a mandate, that means votes....and unfortunately quite a few countries (or their leaders) are not going to rock the boat with Russia/are happy to play along with Russia's side of this story..

Thanks, I had a bit of a question around but in bold below.

• on the forces, vessels, or aircraft of any of the Parties, when in or over these territories or any other area in Europe in which occupation forces of any of the Parties were stationed on the date when the Treaty entered into force or the Mediterranean Sea or the North Atlantic area north of the Tropic of Cancer.

Meanwhile, the Russians are busily destroying other dams and creating floods in other parts of occupied Ukrainian territory

twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1666696188660269056?s=12

@Igotjelly that Twitter quote absolutely nailed it.

Agree @TheABC people are drowning and desperate while leaders are staying silent and handwringing, makes me ashamed. Compare and contrast with Turkey earthquake. This is a humanitarian crisis and needs a stronger response.

I know why they don't trust Amnesty but why not the Red Cross and Unicef? (Never heard of the other two)

Not sure if this has been shared already, the Norwegian report is attached to the tweet.

https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/1666758666442227713?s=20

For everyone who still spreads "doubts" whether it was an explosion in Kakhovka. Norwegian seismic monitoring group Norsar confirmed an explosion at the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine.

Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday, June 6th, at 2:54 local time. The timing and location coincide with media reports of the collapse of the Kakhovka Dam. The signals indicate that an explosion is involved.

As far as I understand, they don't go where it's dangerous, which is where the most aid is needed. There are also very high overheads so a good deal of donations aren't used for the aid that's needed.

About not going where it's dangerous, they have an understandable duty of safety to their staff so it's difficult. The high overheads are not okay. There are also rumours of corruption, but tbh that happens everywhere.

Someone I follow on Twitter has also pointed out that by coming in and taking over some way back from danger, some of the big organisations actually put local small businesses out of work too, grocers etc.

It ends up that it's the people on the ground, the Ukrainians, who actually do the useful work. They aren't hamstrung by rules and they can be more sensitive to the local community and need.

Thanks for the explanation.

I see the UN have agreed to put boots on the ground to assist with evacuations, if Russia will let them in.

They have? Thank God ..... I hope it comes off

........Waits for Russians to start attaching conditions....

@Igotjelly have you got the source for that please? (bit busy atm to look)

It’s on the Sky News live blog, screenshot below.

ty

In all fairness it took more than a week to get any aid into war torn areas of Syria after the quake.

My guess is Russia will agree to aid and then use every delaying tactic in the book to prevent them doing everything

I’m envisaging something like the green corridors at the start of the war.

The ones that 'somebody' kept shelling?