Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Surely you want people who fight because they want to defend their society. Conscripts fighting a war they don't believe in are useless in combat.

😂😂 I like the idea that this is codswallop very much!

It's total conscription in wartime here too but that includes things like contributing to the war effort so production and logistics and food supply and medical care and whatnot, so plenty for women, older people etc. to do without fighting, leaving the fighting part for normal conscripts and reserves.

That's the ideal. That's why people voluntarily enlist, yes.

But in a war situation, it's different. Plenty will volunteer, as plenty did in Ukraine and in WW2 here. But not everyone will, and what do you do then, if your entire country is at stake?

I don't hold to the view 'my country right or wrong' at all. But it's not like people don't benefit from belonging in a society - and when that society is in dire threat of being overrun, I guess it has some degree of claim on you. Much as people might not like to think of their freedoms being abrogated harshly, it's way worse to have your society overrun by eg Russians.

Oh honestly, it really is. Some of what he writes is utterly bizarre.

He's the one started the whole idea off that Putin crapped his pants. Just how the hell would he know, apart from anything else? He claims to know the ins and outs of Putin's ill health better than the man's bacteria.

But then there would also be people who would fight wholeheartedly if they had to, they would just rather not for whatever reason.

I’m quite happy to be told the Kursk stuff is bullshit but I refuse to believe Putin didn’t shit his pants 😂 that’s my favourite bit of news from the war so far!

The Dirty Bomb scenario seems to be something HDBG is rather fond of...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/25/putin-dirty-bomb-war-russian-leader-tactics

I wouldn't like to say whether he's reputable or not but I've just looked at the SVR comment ( @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar -thank's for the tip off) and that was 🙄.......................

They had massive military war games in April to test preparedness and they did just that. The kitchens at the local schools got called up to produce thousands of extra dinners and the emergency radio station were telling all the men where to assemble (although they made that bit clear that is was only a drill for the radio)

He’s pretty well respected having been the commanding officer of the UK’s joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment and of NATO’s Rapid Reaction CBRN force. Agree though now I’ve had a chance to have a better look about the SVR link.

As wars progress, conscription becomes necessary. Usually though, it's a last resort, not a first option. In WWI Britain, the Military Service Act wasn't passed until 1916. It took that long before supplies of willing volunteers were no longer considered sufficient. In WWII conscription was there from the start, but call up could take several years in practice.

There are certainly a lot more willing volunteers in Ukraine, than in Russia.

P.S. Conscription applied to British women in WWII, though in a limited way and they weren't sent to the front line. It was only in 2018 that all restrictions on the deployment of women were lifted in the British Armed Forces.

Should conscription ever occur in the UK again (unlikely, as an island we are very well protected against invasion, and our main forms of defence against direct threats are far too advanced to teach conscripts. Our infantry have never had much of a historical role in protecting our shores directly, their role has been in projecting power overseas.

If conscription for women were compulsory, who will look after the children if assuming the father was already out fighting? Were children whose both parents were away sent to camps if no one else could step in or would there be exemptions?

yes, conscription shouldn't be the first option.

@blueshoes presumably women with children would be exempt, specially if there is no other childcare or called up for things like communications and intelligence work, as @Surplus2requirements said. Plus some women would simply not be suitable for the front lines. I'm not sure some men are either, but in wartime I guess they have to serve anyway.

@Igotjelly I wonder if he's got a mild case of tunnel vision then? having specialized in those things?

Clearly he's highly respected but when it comes to this claim, he didn't do his research. Iirc SVR has pretty well commented on Putin getting fleas at times, or some such.

There are always exemptions for conscriptions. If women were to be conscripted then caring for dependants would need to be one (and arguably should be anyway)

An exemption for women with children would be easy enough to implement. (And could apply to single fathers. Of course, when Ukraine forbade men from leaving the country they made exceptions for men with 3 or more children, or disabled children.) The caring women do for elderly relatives would be harder to ascertain and of course many men do that too, which could leave a bit of a crisis if too many people were conscripted.

Today

MMBaranova, the water level is still so high. It looks like it will take a while to subside if it is still around roof height.

Thanks for all the responses on women conscription. Makes sense to have an exemption for caring duties. If I did not have dcs to look after, I think I can see myself in a room operating drones or handling logistics spreadsheets or reviewing reconnaisance data. I have a huge appetite for dry data. I could be making all this up as in effect will be pretty useless anywhere in a war scenario.

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1668595938888241155 speech from one of the command of the 47th brigade saying all the information coming out is from the Russians.

Haven't listened yet but Hamish has just been interviewed for todays Battleground Ukraine podcast: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/battleground-ukraine/id1617276298?i=1000616914649

"Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon joins Saul and Patrick for this week's big interview. Hamish brings a wealth of knowledge and experience from his time as commanding officer of the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment and from his active service during the first Gulf War. Among other things Hamish discusses his concern over what the Russians may do with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant following their destruction of the Kakhovka Dam..."

I listened this morning. He makes the point that he’s in no doubt the dam was blown up intentionally by the Russians and should be added to the long list of war crimes. He compares it to his time in Syria when the Russians and the Assad regime weren’t getting anywhere militarily so they used chemical weapons basically just to scare the civilian population into capitulation (which largely worked).

He argues that Putin’s nuclear threats, as they relate to actual weapons, have failed and cites Finland joining NATO as an example. His view is that the most likely nuclear weapon is the weaponisation of a power station however at the moment the weather means that the radiation would travel East so obviously not where Putin would want.

Thanks for summarising!

Sounds like good practice. Its kinda weird here, some reserves getting called to practice a lot and some never get called at all - my bloke has never been called for refresher training and apparently if he hasn't been called by now, he never will. I expect his medic skills are very rusty now!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-13-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three directions and made further limited territorial gains on June 13.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with 18 prominent Russian milbloggers and war correspondents to discuss the progress of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on June 13.
• Putin discussed the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and signaled that he believes Russia can outlast Western military support for Ukraine.
• Putin indicated that he is unwilling to announce a second wave of mobilization or declare martial law, despite maintaining his maximalist objectives in Ukraine.
• Putin aimed to assuage widespread discontent in the Russian information space about limited cross-border raids by pro-Ukraine forces into Belgorod Oblast, drone strikes across Russia, and border security in general.
• Putin discussed the importance of formalizing volunteer formations, supporting the Russian MoD’s measures to centralize its control over operations in Ukraine.
• Putin is likely continuing to publicly engage with, and platform select pro-Kremlin milbloggers to further leverage the community to expand his support among Russian ultranationalists.
• Russian sources claimed that a Ukrainian missile strike killed Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) Major General Sergei Goryachev in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on June 13.
• Russian authorities continue to express increasing concern over information related to Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian forces continued ground attacks on the Kreminna frontline but did not conduct offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Ukrainian forces continued to advance on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks, while Russian forces launched counterattacks in the vicinity of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and are transferring additional forces from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast to reinforce the direction.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that the Russian military has recruited 150,000 contract servicemembers as well as over 6,000 volunteers since January 2023.
• Russian occupation officials in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast are reportedly continuing evacuation efforts, although are likely continuing to deny services to some residents in flooded areas.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Defense Ministry records $8 billion in damages caused by Russian attacks on Ukrainian military facilities (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-records-8-billion-in-damage-to/) in 2022.
The amount of damage caused by Russian attacks on Ukrainian military facilities in 2022 is estimated at Hr 298 billion ($8 billion), the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Military Media Center reported on June 13. [one of the rare indications of Russian success, if you know how to guess at what's been lost. I don't]

⚡️US announces new military aid (https://kyivindependent.com/us-announces-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-2/) for Ukraine including Bradley, Stryker vehicles worth $325 million for Ukraine, which includes armored vehicles, missile launchers, and munitions.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry announces $115 million air defense package (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-announces-new-air-defense-package-for-ukraine/) for Ukraine.

Ukraine makes gains 1 week into counteroffensive but decisive battle yet to begin (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-makes-gains-1-week-into-counteroffensive-but-decisive-battle-yet-to-begin/)

⚡️Russian forces have mined a large number of hydraulic structures in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, Major Vladyslav Dudar, a representative of the Defense Ministry, reported on June 13. (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-russian-forces-mining-hydraulic-structures/).

⚡️General Staff: Russia launches 29 airstrikes (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-june-13-update/) in past 24 hours.

⚡️Zelensky meets with IAEA head (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-with-iaea-head/) in Kyiv. Zelensky commended Grossi's decision to visit the plant in person and inspect the situation on the ground.

⚡️Biden, NATO chief meet (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-5/) in Washington ahead of NATO summit.
NATO's 31 member states will meet in Vilnius to discuss a number of issues, including potential security guarantees for Ukraine, Sweden's entrance into the alliance, and Stoltenberg's possible successor.

⚡️Officials: Pollutants found in waters near Kherson (https://kyivindependent.com/officials-pollutants-found-in-waters-near-kherson-following-kakhovka-dam-disaster/) following Kakhovka dam disaster.
Laboratory analysis has confirmed the presence of E. coli and cholera in the waters near the city of Kherson following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam, but not in high concentrations.

⚡️Pistorius: Germany to prepare over 100 Leopard 1 tanks (https://kyivindependent.com/pistorius-germany-to-prepare-over-100-leopard-1-tanks-for-ukraine-this-year/) for Ukraine this year.

⚡️WSJ: US to provide depleted-uranium (https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-us-to-provide-depleted-uranium-shells/) tank shells for Ukraine.
The U.S. is set to provide depleted-uranium tank shells after weeks of discussion, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote on June 13, citing U.S. officials.

12 people killed, 25 injured in Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih
(https://kyivindependent.com/11-people-killed-25-injured-in-russian-missile-attack-on-kryvyi-rih/)

⚡️Three killed (https://kyivindependent.com/three-killed-at-least-10-injured-in-russias-overnight-missile-strike-on-odesa/), at least 13 injured in Russia's overnight missile strike on Odesa

⚡️Latvia allocates another $460,000 of aid (https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-allocated-another-eu430-thousand-aid-for-kakhovka/) to Ukraine after Kakhovka dam disaster.

⚡️US: No confirmation (https://kyivindependent.com/us-no-confirmation-on-vehicles-destroyed-in-ukriane/) on vehicles destroyed in Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The Pentagon said on June 14 that it has currently no confirmation about the alleged loss of 16 U.S-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles in Ukraine's counteroffensive.

⚡️Zelensky: Missiles used in Kryvyi Rih attack had foreign-made (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-missile-used-on/)components.
The Russian missile used in the attack on Kryvyi Rih that killed 11 and injured 39 people on June 13 contained over 50 components produced in foreign countries, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

⚡️Anti-corruption agencies launch investigation (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-launch-corruption-case-involving/) involving Ukrainian Railways.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) informed on June 13 of a corruption case concerning the state-owned railway monopoly Ukrzaliznytsia.
Four people are suspected of fraud during the company's gas purchases worth Hr 206 million ($5.6 million).

⚡️France says it uncovered (https://kyivindependent.com/afp-france-says-it-uncovered-major-russian-disinformation-campaign/) major Russian disinformation campaign.
France uncovered a major Russian disinformation campaign aimed against Ukraine, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported, citing French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna on June 13.
The disinformation activities involved presenting false news items hostile towards Ukraine as news content authored by the prominent French media.

⚡️NYT: US lawmakers call for South Africa to lose summit (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-us-lawmakers/) due to Russia ties.
In a letter obtained by the New York Times on June 13, a group of U.S. lawmakers called to move a U.S.-Africa summit from South Africa to a different host over Russia ties.

⚡️EU: 14 member states have provided aid to Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-14-member-states-have-provided-aid-to-ukraine-following-kakhovka-dams-destruction/)following Kakhovka dam's destruction. The aid comprises 76 boats, over 300 water pumps, and over 160,000 shelter items.

⚡️Digital Transformation Ministry calls for anti-drone defense innovations (https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-announces-hackathon-to-combat-russian-drones/), promises $1 million contract to winner.

⚡️Media: Greenpeace names conditions for Kakhovka disaster lawsuit (https://kyivindependent.com/media-greenpeace-names-conditions-for-kakhovka-disaster-lawsuit-against-russia/)against Russia.

Rather higher personnel losses but less hardware yesterday.