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Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

998 replies

MagicFox · 06/06/2023 13:13

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
Thread gallery
161
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 07:47

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-12-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front on June 12.
  • Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient in western Donetsk Oblast on June 11.
  • Russian milbloggers claimed that poor weather conditions grounded Russian aircraft, impeding Russian defenses against Ukrainian attacks near the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on June 11 that he had received an order from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to subordinate his forces under the Russian military command.
  • The Russian MoD formalization efforts are likely intended to centralize control of Russian irregular personnel and supplies to respond to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as well as restrict Prigozhin's independence.
  • Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues efforts to rhetorically align himself with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and further distancing himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Kreminna.
  • Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and made gains as of June 12.
  • Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces conducted limited counteroffensive operations southwest of Orikhiv.
  • Social media video footage circulated on June 12 reportedly shows Russian barrier troops shooting Russian forces that abandoned their positions somewhere in Ukraine. [clearly the ISW believe it's likely genuine footage then]
  • Russia continues to strengthen the legal regime in occupied areas of Ukraine under martial law.

[It has been commented that the considerable majority of Ukraine's forces are not yet committed to the counteroffensive]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Natsku · 13/06/2023 08:55

Regarding women on the front line, so long as its voluntary for them then I think its ok. I would definitely oppose women being conscripted to the front line (not really keen on them being conscripted at all, any military service should remain voluntary for women because of our differences and vulnerabilities)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 09:38

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces fail to make (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russian-forces-fail-to-advance-in-donetsk-oblast/) advances in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces have unsuccessfully attempted to advance near the Donetsk Oblast village of Blahodatne, which was recently liberated by Ukrainian forces, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported on June 12.

⚡️NATO ministers to meet (https://kyivindependent.com/media-nato-defense-ministers-to-meet-with-major-defense-companies/) defense firms to discuss Ukraine's need for ammo.

⚡️NATO hosts (https://kyivindependent.com/nato-holds/) largest air-deployment exercises in history
Allied air forces participated in the largest military air exercises in NATO's history in Germany on June 12, NATO announced on its website.
The two-week exercise, called Air Defender 23, includes nearly 10,000 personnel and 250 aircraft from 25 countries.

⚡️IAEA head to meet (https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-head-to-meet-with-zelensky/) Zelensky, discuss impact of Kakhovka dam disaster and present an assistance program for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

⚡️Sky News: UK official anticipates 'major' Ukrainian attack (https://kyivindependent.com/sky-news-uk-official-anticipates-major-ukrainian-attack-in-donbas-in-next-few-days/) in Donbas in 'next few days.'
Tobias Ellwood, the head of the U.K. Parliament's defense committee, believes Ukraine would launch a "major attack" against Russian forces in the eastern Donbas region "in the next few days."
Ukraine's military is conducting "probing and shaping operations," and "the main front of the Ukrainian capability still in reserves ready for that singular attack," Ellwood told Sky News on June 12.

⚡️Denmark to supply (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-supply-ukraine-with-ammunition-2-000-artillery-shells/) Ukraine with $36 million worth of ammunition.
Without disclosing many details, the ministers revealed that the package will include 2,000 artillery shells.

⚡️US extend (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to/)s** (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to/) sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to/) against Belarus for another year.

⚡️Border guards: Mines dislodged (https://kyivindependent.com/state-border-guard-service-dislodged-mines-caused-by-kakhovka-dam-flooding-making-way-to-odesa-oblast/) by Kakhovka dam flooding end up in Odesa Oblast.

⚡️ Military intelligence: Russia preparing (https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-preparing-evacuations-in-crimea/) evacuations, sabotage in Crimea amid Kakhovka dam breach.
Russia is preparing evacuations in the occupied city of Armiansk in northern Crimea.

⚡️Ministry: Kakhovka disaster (https://kyivindependent.com/kakhovka-disaster-causes/) causes $4 billion damage to irrigation infrastructure. Unless the water supply is restored, agriculture will be impossible in southern Ukraine "in the near future," the ministry noted.

⚡️Ukrhydroenergo head: Kakhovka dam destruction cut off water supply (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrhydroenergo-head-kakhovka-dams-destruction-cut-of-water-to-supply-for-crimea-for-at-least-a-year/) to Crimea for 'at least a year.'

Kakhovka dam destruction disrupts water, power supply but offers sustainable reset (https://kyivindependent.com/kakhovka-dam-destruction-disrupts-water-power-supply-but-offers-sustainable-reset/)
The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant's destruction is a major blow to the country’s food, water, and energy system.
But it also offers an opportunity for betterment.

Update: 6 killed, over 25 injured (https://kyivindependent.com/update-6-killed-in-russian-missile-attack-on-kryvyi-rih/) in Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih.

⚡️Reuters: G7 to combat (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-g7-to-combat-russias-theft-of-ukrainian-grain/) Russia's theft of Ukrainian grain, Reuters reported on June 12, citing U.K. Minister of State for Food, Farming, and Fisheries Mark Spencer.
The scheme will involve using chemical identification of the grain's origin, the minister explained.

⚡️Zelensky signs law (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-making-may-8-day-of-remembrance-and-victory-over-nazism/) making May 8 Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism.
Previously, Ukraine celebrated victory against Nazi Germany on May 9, like Russia. In 2015, then-president Petro Poroshenko changed the holiday's name to the Day of Victory over Nazism in World War II as opposed to Victory Day used by Moscow.

⚡️Kuleba: Ukraine aims to establish (https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-ukraine-aims-to-establish-defense-industry-alliance-with-west/) defense industry alliance with West.
Ukraine is actively working towards forging a defense industry alliance with Western partners to ensure it continues to get access to the modern military equipment it needs to counter Russian aggression, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on national television on June 12.

⚡️Borrell rejects (https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-rejects-cutting-military-aid-for-ukraine/) cutting military aid for Ukraine.
The European Union's chief diplomat Josep Borrell rejected the idea of cutting weapons supplies for Ukraine in an interview with the Spanish radio station Onda Cero on June 12.

Unexpectedly lower losses yesterday but 1 helicopter and still 20 artillery down.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Positivethought · 13/06/2023 09:48

Thanks for link, a really moving read - the personal stories tell us a lot about Ukrainian resolve.
To quote Oksana Hryhoryeva, gender adviser to Ukraine’s military land forces:
“The belief that the army is no place for women is a relic of Soviet mentality “.

MrTiddlesTheCat · 13/06/2023 09:57

Women not being on the front line was about survival of your people. Once the battle was over you had to replenish all the lost young men through breeding. You'd be less able to do that if you'd lost all the young women too.

Maybe not so relevant in modern warfare where the battle doesn't involve wiping out entirely the other side.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 10:05

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The administration of the US president proposes to include six more permanent members of the UN Security Council, who will not have the right to veto, —The Washington Post citing sources.
According to the publication, this will strengthen the influence of developing countries, in particular, Africa and Latin America.

Russia transferred 90% of its own reserves to the Zaporizhzhia region, and Ukraine — only 25%, — Welt.
The publication notes that although the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are saving forces for the main strike.

The main counteroffensive of Ukraine has not yet begun, we will talk about it when large armored formations go into battle, — former commander of the US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges.
According to Hodges, Ukraine will use 500-750 units of armored vehicles on a narrow section of the front. The composition will include Ukrainian, trophy, and Western cars.
Mike Martin, a researcher at King's College London, also believes that the armed forces have not yet engaged the main force.
In his opinion, the main direction of the attack will fall on Tokmak, control of which opens the way to Melitopol and cuts off Crimea.
Because of the importance of this direction, it is here that Ukraine uses its best equipment, and the Russians put up fierce resistance, Martin believes.

In the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainian soldiers are advancing, the enemy is losing positions on the flanks, — Commander of the Ground Forces Syrskyi

⚡️ Last week, during the counteroffensive, the Armed Forces liberated 7 settlements: Lobkove, Levadne, Novodarivka, Neskuchne, Storozheve, Makarivka, Blahodatne.

The United States see no signs that China is supplying weapons for the war against Ukraine, but Washington is concerned about technology transfers, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

🇩🇪 Against the background of the latest reports about the Leopard 2 destroyed in Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius promised to supply more such tanks.
"We will not be able to replace every failing tank. But we will continue to supply more refurbished Leopard 1A5 tanks from July, and by the end of the year, there will be more than 100," he said.

Ukrainian pilots can start training for flights on F-16 fighters this summer, said Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren in an interview with Reuters.

In Melitopol, a diesel locomotive of the occupiers was destroyed in the locomotive depot, — mayor Ivan Fedorov.

Japan has for the first time passed a law allowing the export of weapons outside the country.
The law also provides for an increase in domestic orders.

Scandinavian countries have announced a boycott of Mondelez due to continued sales of their products in Russia. They produce the famous Oreo cookies, Barny cookies, Milka chocolate, Alpen Gold, and Toblerone.
In Russia, the company owns three plants: the "Bolshevik" plant, the production plant in Pokrov, and the plant in Veliky Novgorod. The company owns the Freia and Marabou chocolate brands in Scandinavian countries.

🇺🇦🇲🇩 Ukraine and Moldova signed an agreement on the construction of a bridge on the Ukrainian-Moldovan border near the settlements of Yampil and Koseut.

Russia and the United States are increasing the number of deployed nuclear warheads against the background of the war in Ukraine
This was reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
About 2 thousand warheads — almost all of them belong to the Russian Federation and America — were in a state of high alert. They were equipped with missiles or placed on strategic air bases.
According to experts, the United States has increased the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,770, and Russia to 1,674.
The USA and the Russian Federation possess almost 90% of the world's nuclear weapons, according to the SIPRI report.

After the water drained from the Kakhovka reservoir, the human remains of people from the Second World War were found at the bottom.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
RedToothBrush · 13/06/2023 10:18

MrTiddlesTheCat · 13/06/2023 09:57

Women not being on the front line was about survival of your people. Once the battle was over you had to replenish all the lost young men through breeding. You'd be less able to do that if you'd lost all the young women too.

Maybe not so relevant in modern warfare where the battle doesn't involve wiping out entirely the other side.

This

In modern times you also need to consider how things like body armour and weaponary are designed for the male body.

In Ukraine there is an issue with men not getting the body armour they should - which makes the argument about that more difficult to stop women. Men are risking their lives with inappropriate equipment too, and they all damn well know it.

This war is being characterised by a huge amount of drone warfare and missiles. Those are front line action but perhaps don't have the same physicality as in the trenches in the traditional sense. So there is perhaps an increasing range of what women can do despite their physicality.

And I also think that in this way there is an element of women being so determined to fight and defend their land, that it's difficult to stop them getting involved. Better to actively engage and use them within the army rather than in more informal roles.

We also should consider how lifestyles have changed. In the 1940s what do women do in Europe on a day to day basis in terms of labour? We live in a less labour intensive world due to technology. Simple things like refrigeration and wider availablity of food which perishes less quickly are factors. Women have fewer children and have them older. It means that more women are more free to participate in the war directly.

In terms of 'rebuilding population' in the long term, there inevitably will be an effective. But equally we live at a time where infant mortality is greatly reduced too - we don't need women to produce as many babies. Ukrainian health care is at this level and will receive support to ensure it maintains a decent level. This is a marked difference to Russia.

Its an interesting question in terms of feminist view. I do think that it is right that it isn't compulsory for women in the same way as men despite this though because unfortunately biology can not be ignored - if women do not have the strength to carry as much this alone matters in certain situations. And yes, babies and who is still doing the majority of caring roles within society.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 10:18

MrTiddlesTheCat · 13/06/2023 09:57

Women not being on the front line was about survival of your people. Once the battle was over you had to replenish all the lost young men through breeding. You'd be less able to do that if you'd lost all the young women too.

Maybe not so relevant in modern warfare where the battle doesn't involve wiping out entirely the other side.

Yes, this, and bringing the children up.

As you say, with tanks etc the need for one-to-one physical combat is presumably heavily reduced. Men would have had a considerable advantage there, not only but not least because they were trained and women weren't. There was also a great deal of sexism involved, I think.

In previous centuries there may have been enormous amounts of brutality against women / children. In the death-pits recovered in the middle ages, women were far more likely than men to suffer parry-fractures of the forearms which implies a lot of domestic violence, and they got less medical treatment. https://the-past.com/feature/spitalfields-cemetery-and-the-famine-of-1258/

Humans can still be very savage but I'm so glad we live now!

London's volcanic winter: Spitalfields cemetery and the famine of 1258 | The Past

Mass graves were needed all too often in the Medieval world, but establishing the specific tragedy behind any given set is difficult. Now Don Walker believe ...

https://the-past.com/feature/spitalfields-cemetery-and-the-famine-of-1258

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 11:00

Live: Ukraine Telegram

❗️Russian military correspondents report that the Russian Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, Major General Sergei Goryachev, was killed in the Zaporizhzhya sector as a result of Ukrainian rocket fire.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are successful in their offensive in the Berdiansk sector, advancing from 500 meters to 1 kilometer over the past day, said General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovalev.
He added that the area of the territory taken under control was up to 3 km².
The United States has provided Ukraine with $39.5 billion in military assistance since the beginning of Russia's military aggression against Ukraine in 2014.
This amount is 27% of Ukraine's GDP in 2022.

🇱🇻 Latvian Foreign Minister and President-elect Edgars Rinkēvičs said that the main obstacle to Ukraine's accession to NATO is not Hungary, Ukraine itself, or Russia's unspoken "veto," but an internal debate within the Alliance.
"The reason is that NATO members do not have a clear understanding of what to do when a belligerent [I think a translation issue: a country at war] state joins the Alliance and what this means in the context of Article 5. Let me be clear: this is the main issue. And this is the question that many member states cannot answer," he said.

🇵🇱 Poland's willingness to help refugees from Ukraine is decreasing
Respondents indicate that the change in their attitude is due to the "demanding attitude" of refugees, according to a survey conducted by the Research Laboratory of the University of Warsaw and the Academy of Economics and Humanities.
In just five months, the group of those who believe that Poland should help Ukraine during the war has decreased from 62% to 42%. Even fewer Poles - currently 35% - have a strongly positive attitude towards the assistance provided by Poland; in January, there were 47% of such people.
A quarter of Poles say "no" to additional aid to Ukraine. In addition, the percentage of those who strongly support assistance to refugees in Poland has fallen from 49% to 28%.

In New Zealand, an employee of the national broadcaster RNZ added (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/12/radio-new-zealand-employee-placed-on-leave-amid-investigation-into-pro-russia-editing-of-ukraine-reports?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1686534631) pro-Russian talking points to journalistic materials about Ukraine. He was sent on vacation and the incident was investigated.

In Dubai, the Burj Khalifa skyscraper was painted in the color of the Russian flag in honor of Russia's Day

Radio New Zealand employee placed on leave amid investigation into pro-Russia editing of Ukraine reports

National broadcaster says thousands of articles will be reviewed after pro-Kremlin phrasing added to at least 16 Ukraine war reports

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/12/radio-new-zealand-employee-placed-on-leave-amid-investigation-into-pro-russia-editing-of-ukraine-reports?CMP=twt_gu#Echobox=1686534631)

Igotjelly · 13/06/2023 15:19

Hamish De Bretten Gordon has retweeted a suggestion that Putin designated the Kursk nuclear power plant as the site of a nuclear disaster. It suggests he has given orders to prepare for the implementation of an operation of provocation.

Fladdermus · 13/06/2023 16:31

Igotjelly · 13/06/2023 15:19

Hamish De Bretten Gordon has retweeted a suggestion that Putin designated the Kursk nuclear power plant as the site of a nuclear disaster. It suggests he has given orders to prepare for the implementation of an operation of provocation.

I've proper cried over that. I've never watched something to be fake news so much, but I fear it's true. How much more horror can one man unleash?

Igotjelly · 13/06/2023 16:39

Hopefully fake news but I generally think Hamish DBG knows his stuff.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 16:59

Could you link his twitter handle please?

Fladdermus · 13/06/2023 17:06

Fladdermus · 13/06/2023 16:31

I've proper cried over that. I've never watched something to be fake news so much, but I fear it's true. How much more horror can one man unleash?

That should have been 'I've never wanted something to be fake news so much'. Fat fingers, autocorrect and posting while not wearing my glasses are conspiring to make me look illiterate.

MagicFox · 13/06/2023 17:09

He's @HAMISHDBG

OP posts:
Famzonhol · 13/06/2023 17:21

Natsku · 13/06/2023 08:55

Regarding women on the front line, so long as its voluntary for them then I think its ok. I would definitely oppose women being conscripted to the front line (not really keen on them being conscripted at all, any military service should remain voluntary for women because of our differences and vulnerabilities)

No one should be conscripted.

Igotjelly · 13/06/2023 17:45

Apologies won’t let me link on my phone. Screenshot of his page below.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
RedToothBrush · 13/06/2023 17:56

Cholera and E.coli bacteria have been discovered in Kherson. Rotavirus, salmonella and astrovirus have also been detected on the beaches of Odesa.

The danger isn't restricted to drinking water either unfortunately due to the floods.

It doesn't look like there has been an outbreak yet, but clearly a concern.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 18:17

MagicFox · 13/06/2023 17:09

He's @HAMISHDBG

ty

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 18:18

Famzonhol · 13/06/2023 17:21

No one should be conscripted.

Disagree. If you're going to live in a society and enjoy the benefits of it, if you are faced with a threat to your very existence then conscription is necessary.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 18:33

Oh god, he's got that thing from the SVR channel.

The SVR is written by a fantastist who pretends to be a fly on Putin's lapel and reports everything seen. It's absolute codswallop and I'm very surprised a reputable person would give it even a moment's time. Very.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 13/06/2023 18:37

for example, he claims to know everything about conversations Putin has

The President of Russia tried to convey to the President of Turkey that freezing the conflict in Ukraine at its current positions is the best thing that can be done today. Erdogan explained to Putin that the current leadership of Ukraine does not accept these "realities" and will not agree to this, under any circumstances. Putin told his colleague that he does not consider Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to be an independent figure and he is not interested in the positions of the Ukrainian side, he believes that it is necessary to negotiate with the US leadership and asks the Turkish President to be an intermediary in conveying the views of the Russian President to the American leadership.

By evening, the president again had an examination by the attending physicians and consultations via video link with doctors involved in the treatment of Putin from another state. They discussed the results of the survey, which the President passed last weekend. There is nothing encouraging for Putin in the survey results. His health is deteriorating, the disease is progressing, until some of the best specialists in the world in this field cannot do anything, the treatment does not give proper results. They do not hide information about his real condition from the president, of course, trying to reassure, but this does not help much. Doctors warned Putin's inner circle that there was no need to wait for his health to improve, and that there was a forecast for deterioration.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing control of the system. A striking example of this is the state of affairs at the front. Yesterday morning, after reports to Putin on the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the president, during a meeting with representatives of the leadership of the power and military blocs, played out a real detective story: "Who did this?" First, the incident was reported to the President five hours later, without daring to wake him up.

On Sunday, the president was voiced the offer of the Russian Volunteer Corps to the governor of the Belgorod region to exchange prisoners for a few minutes of conversation and asked Putin what to do in such a situation, the president said: “Fuck you asking me about this? Go fuck yourself with your prisoners and the governor who allowed such a fucked up ". Due to the deterioration of health, on weekends, duty doctors were called to the president three times. On Sunday, Putin spent most of his time lying in bed, getting up only to receive a report via video link and twice to eat and go to the bathroom.

really?

Natsku · 13/06/2023 18:44

Famzonhol · 13/06/2023 17:21

No one should be conscripted.

When the very existence of a country is at stake then conscription is appropriate (though I'm also not opposed to peacetime conscription either as exists in my country, so they're already trained in case war comes)

Fladdermus · 13/06/2023 18:52

In the event of war in Sweden we have total conscription for everyone between the ages of 16 and 70. Although I'm assuming they don't do armoured rollators so I won't be anywhere near the frontline.