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Ukraine Invasion: Part 40

994 replies

MagicFox · 13/05/2023 15:17

40 threads, still here πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
221
PerkingFaintly · 18/05/2023 19:36

Love that Ukr vid about 'invincible' Kinzhals.

"American-made Patriot missiles found them quite vincible."Grin

Greenshake · 18/05/2023 20:13

Thanks for that video @minsmum, I love watching these.

MMBaranova · 18/05/2023 23:52

NCOs in the Russian army (think it was Chatillon commenting on the quality of the Russian army).

They don't exist in the same way as in Western armies.

The longest serving non-officers in a unit have a role, but it's closer to chief time-server. They pass on the orders.

NCOs: America Has Them, China Wants Them, Russia is Struggling Without Them - Defense One

NCOs: America Has Them, China Wants Them, Russia is Struggling Without Them

Non-commissioned officers, long the β€œbackbone” of the U.S. military, are proving even more crucial on modern battlefields.

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/05/ncos-america-has-them-china-wants-them-russia-struggling-without-them/366586/

Chatillon · 19/05/2023 06:15

Good article. No mention of the UK or France. Two countries which have a long history of engagement in conflicts through which knowledge is gained and passed on by NCOs. In fact there is an argument for prosecuting war to keep knowhow and equipment fresh (R&D).

"U.S. military services, by comparison, entrust leadership to NCOs. Mission command is pushed to the lowest possible rank" This is something that the US does well in its corporate methodologies also. Which is part of the reason the US has both the strongest economy and strongest military. Delegate as far down as possible. Leaders can then go out and lead.

I imagine Ben Wallace is the most frustrated person in Government. When all that knowledge is eroded through spending cuts to the military it won't be retrieved.

Understanding mission command

Mission command, as a recognized methodology, is not new to military doctrine. To fully grasp the concept, leaders must understand its background and legacy.

https://www.army.mil/article/106872/understanding_mission_command

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/05/2023 09:13

My dad was an nco, they are the ones that get things done.

TheABC · 19/05/2023 09:24

UK Defense Ministry: Train derailed near Simferopol, blocking rail to Russian navy base in occupied Crimea.

Possible sabotage led to a train derailing near Simferopol on May 18, blocking the only rail connection to the base of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.

twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1659461829163098112?t=hKl6ZR7ChCSClbluPBAKUw&s=19

Russia's rail links have always been the weak point in this invasion; it's good to see them getting the attention they deserve.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 09:39

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-18-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces have seized the tactical initiative and made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18.
  • Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces have seized the battlefield initiative in the Bakhmut area.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of Bakhmut.
  • Prigozhin and Wagner-affiliated milbloggers are blaming Russian conventional forces for military failures in and around Bakhmut.
  • Prigozhin’s efforts to blame the Russian military for failures around Bakhmut are causing some ultranationalists to accuse him of using the Battle for Bakhmut to satisfy his personal ambitions.
  • Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May.
  • The Kremlin continues to strengthen domestic repression measures likely to encourage self-censorship and prepare Russian society for a prolonged war.
  • NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may discuss the possible provision of Western fighter jets to Ukraine at the June Defense Ministers meeting.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Unknown actors, possibly Ukrainian partisans, attacked a Russian rail line in Crimea.
  • The Russian Supreme Court ruled on May 18 that Russian military personnel who voluntarily surrender on the battlefield will be prosecuted under treason charges. [I wonder if Ukraine will -not- swap them for Ukrainian prisoners then]
  • Russian occupation authorities continue to announce patronage programs with Russian federal subjects to support infrastructure projects in occupied territories.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 09:46

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️G7 leaders to discuss (https://kyivindependent.com/g7-leaders-to-discuss-international-summit-on-ukraine-peace/)international** summit on Ukraine peace.
Group of Seven (G7) leaders will discuss the idea of holding an international summit on Ukraine peace when they meet in Japan this week, Reuters reported, citing an EU official.

⚑️Bloomberg: Zelensky to visit (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg/) G7 summit in person.
President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to Japan this week to join the Group of Seven (G7) leaders in person, people familiar with the planning told Bloomberg.

⚑️Ukraine's military reports (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-reports-breakthrough-on-bakhmut-outskirts/) breakthrough in Bakhmut outskirts.
Ukraine's Third Assault Brigade reported making a breakthrough in the western outskirts of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on May 18.
As a result of the breakthrough, the brigade has gained a foothold "for a further counteroffensive," reads the report. The advance covered an area of 2,000 by 700 meters, the military wrote.

⚑️Official: Ukrainian defenders control southwestern Bakhmut, advance (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-defenders-control-southwestern-bakhmut-advance-in-citys-outskirts/) in city's outskirts.

⚑️Norway will supply Ukraine with up to eight multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and three Arthur artillery location radars, Norwegian Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram said on May 18. (https://kyivindependent.com/norway-to-send-ukraine-rocket-launchers-artillery-location-radars/)
From this summer on, Norway will also double the number of its instructors training Ukrainian soldiers under Operation Interflex, Gram added.

⚑️Pentagon confirms (https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-confirms-damage-to-patriot-system-in-ukraine-says-its-already-repaired/) damage to Patriot system in Ukraine, says it's already repaired.
According to the U.S. Defense Department, a Patriot air defense system damaged in a Russian attack on Ukraine has already been repaired and is "fully back online and operational."

⚑️Politico: Russia's war in Ukraine may become (https://kyivindependent.com/politico-us-officials-discussing-possible-frozen-conflict-in-ukraine/) 'frozen' conflict.
U.S. officials are discussing an action plan in case Russia's war in Ukraine turns into a "frozen" conflict, Politico reported on May 18, citing people familiar with the talks.

⚑️Ex-Supreme Court Head detained (https://kyivindependent.com/ex-supreme-court-head-detained-for-60-days/) for 60 days.
Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court has ordered a 60-day detention of now former Supreme Court Head Vsevolod Kniaziev, Suspilne news outlet reported on May 18.

Ukraine strikes back (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-back-around-bakhmut-as-wagner-reaches-last-streets-in-the-city/) around Bakhmut as Wagner reaches last streets in the city
The Battle of Bakhmut, by now likely the bloodiest single military engagement of the 21st century, looks to have finally entered its twilight.
As costly as the defense has been, with Ukraine reportedly suffering high casualties, the initially controversial choice of the Ukrainian command to hold the city for as long as possible seems to have paid off.
Here, the obvious-seeming difference between a counterattack and counteroffensive must be stressed.

⚑️Reuters: Pentagon discovers $3 billion (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-pentagon-discovers-3-billion-accounting-error-in-valuing-ukraine-weapons-aid/) accounting error in valuing Ukraine weapons aid.
The Pentagon has acknowledged a significant accounting error that overestimated the value of ammunition, missiles, and other equipment provided to Ukraine by approximately $3 billion. This miscalculation may potentially result in increased weapon shipments to Kyiv to strengthen its defense against Russian forces.

⚑️Air Force: Ukraine downs (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-downs/) 3 cruise missiles, 16 drones overnight.

Slightly more troops, a haul of hardware and 21 cruise missiles!

Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 09:53

Kyiv Independent Telegram more

⚑️UK unveils new sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-unveils-new-sanctions-against-russia/) against Russia.
The United Kingdom unveiled a fresh package of sanctions against Russia on May 19, targeting its energy, metal, transport, and military technology industries.

⚑️Ombudsman: Ukrainian 14-year-old girl released from Russian captivity (https://kyivindependent.com/ombudsman-ukrainian-14-year-old-girl-released-from-russian-captivity/).

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 10:00

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Kyiv and Moscow agreed to receive representatives of Pope Francis to discuss the truce, β€” Vatican information portal Il Sismografo with reference to sources. The head of the Conference of Italian Bishops, Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, may go to Kyiv. Archbishop Claudio Gugerotti, prefect of the decastery for the affairs of the Eastern Churches, may visit to Moscow.

❗️British Defense Minister Ben Wallace confirmed that Ukraine has started using Storm Shadow long-range missiles, which London handed over to Kyiv.

πŸ“· The German camera manufacturer Leica, despite the announcement of withdrawal from the Russian market, supplies night vision scopes and binoculars with a laser rangefinder to the Russian Federation, which can be used to adjust artillery fire, β€” The Insider [fucking hell]

NATO develops secret war plan about Russia for the first time since Cold War, β€” Reuters
The plan should be approved at the Alliance's July summit in Vilnius. The documents will specify how NATO should respond to an attack by the Russian Federation
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Alliance did not have a comprehensive defense plan in case of an attack by the Russian army.
"We must be prepared for the fact that a conflict can happen at any moment," said Admiral and Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Rob Bauer.
During the Cold War, Germany was considered a key area of hostilities, but now the potential conflict is shifting east.
In addition, the number of member countries of the Alliance changed from 16 to 31, and with the accession of Finland, NATO's border with Russia doubled to 2,500 km.
In addition, if during the existence of the USSR, the Alliance was preparing for a large-scale nuclear war, now NATO is counting on a different type of military action.

Italy will train Armed Forces soldiers based on schools and military facilities, β€” ANSA agency.
Official Rome stated that in addition to providing training platforms, Italy is ready to send its instructors to Belgium, Poland, and Germany to provide training programs for Ukrainian fighters on the territory of these countries.

First Lady Olena Zelenska in South Korea appeared in a vyshyvanka dress

Ukrainian soldiers are returning from training in Poland. The instructors this time were representatives of Canada, the UK, Latvia, and Poland. We really appreciate this support!

The US can train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 in four months, β€” Yahoo News citing an internal US Air Force document
The document contains a detailed assessment of two Ukrainian pilots who passed a check-up at an air base in Arizona at the end of February.
According to the assessment, the Ukrainian pilots could perform several "relatively technical" maneuvers in simulated conditions." [does that include -fighting- with them though?]

πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ The UK announced new sanctions against Russia. The sanctions list included, in particular:

▫️ Organizations related to the Russian "Rosatom", in particular, UMATEX and TRINITI;

▫️Oleg Romanenko, 13 members of the board of directors of Gazprom-Neft, and five members of the board of directors of Transneft were appointed by the Russian "director" of the Zaporizhzhia NPP;

▫️billionaire Igor Altushkin and his "Russian Copper Company", as well as eight companies related to the production of metals;

▫️The State Grain Corporation and its director Nikita Busela, involved in the theft of Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products;

▫️20 leaders of the defense sector and companies that support Russia's military activities, in particular, directors of the Kalashnikov Concern;

▫️Five financial institutions, in particular, "Dom.RF", which acts on behalf of the Russian government, and the Metallurgical Investment Bank, which supports Russian industrial exports.

Russia initiated the meeting of the UN Security Council meeting to complain about how Ukraine shoots down Russian missiles, Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya said.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 10:08

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🌾The "grain deal" does not provide for the satisfaction of any needs of the Russian Federation, and the issues of the ammonia pipeline and the lifting of sanctions against Russian banks initiated by Russia are being discussed separately, said Ukrainian Ambassador to Türkiye Vasyl Bodnar.

Up to 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers secretly trained in Sweden - The Times, SVT
The Ukrainian brigade that trained in Sweden is equipped with Leopard 2 tanks, CV-90 combat vehicles and Archer artillery systems, "making it one of the most powerful units in the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
"This month, it returned to Ukraine to be ready for battle," writes the British newspaper

❗️This month, the Russians attacked Kyiv from the air for the tenth time. On the night of May 19, the occupiers launched Shahed drones - all of them were shot down by air defense. The attack took place in several waves with short intervals between them, writes Serhiy Popko, head of the Kyiv City Military Administration.

  1. Ukrainian β€˜Mriya’ flying over the β€˜Donbas Arena’ in Donetsk. Both ruined now.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 40
notimagain · 19/05/2023 10:11

The US can train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16 in four months, β€” Yahoo News citing an internal US Air Force document
The document contains a detailed assessment of two Ukrainian pilots who passed a check-up at an air base in Arizona at the end of February.
According to the assessment, the Ukrainian pilots could perform several "relatively technical" maneuvers in simulated conditions." [does that include -fighting- with them though?]

Four months to convert MiG- to F-16 sounds reasonable (it's a similar length of time as it takes to convert experienced pilots from NATO fighter to another NATO fighter of similar generation), and yes that would include the ability to "fight" at some level..

FWIW if you are dealing with experienced pilots the training in pure aircraft handling (take-off, landings, instrument flying etc etc) on their new type should only take a matter of days/a week or two, maximum.. that would leave plenty of time in a four month course for tactical and weapons training.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 19/05/2023 11:38

Latest from Lawrence Freedman:

samf.substack.com/p/can-ukraines-air-defence-systems?publication_id=631422&isFreemail=false

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/05/2023 12:20

Reuters: Pentagon discovers $3 billion (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-pentagon-discovers-3-billion-accounting-error-in-valuing-ukraine-weapons-aid/)Β accounting error in valuing Ukraine weapons aid.
The Pentagon has acknowledged a significant accounting error that overestimated the value of ammunition, missiles, and other equipment provided to Ukraine by approximately $3 billion. This miscalculation may potentially result in increased weapon shipments to Kyiv to strengthen its defense against Russian forces.

That's an unfortunate error. I'm sure the pentagon will fulfil it's promise and more shipments will be made.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 12:30

That's really quite a large error to make!

MissConductUS · 19/05/2023 13:20

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 12:30

That's really quite a large error to make!

I'm guessing someone found a misplaced $3B gift voucher from Raytheon. 😁

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/05/2023 13:33

Either that or they forgot to add the bulk buyer discount... Wink

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 19/05/2023 13:55

L1ttledrummergirl · 19/05/2023 09:13

My dad was an nco, they are the ones that get things done.

"Sergeant, that hill offends me. Make it go away." is a well-known urban legend, but there is truth in the sentiment.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 14:05

Says something about the officer giving that order tho :D

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 19/05/2023 14:36

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 14:05

Says something about the officer giving that order tho :D

Trusts his sergeant and has the sense to know who does the actual work? Sounds a good officer to me.

notimagain · 19/05/2023 17:11

Not sure if a link to this report has been posted here yet:

https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

The bad news is the Russian's aren't completely dumb, they do learn from experience and evolve tactics etc.....eventually..

https://static.rusi.org/403-SR-Russian-Tactics-web-final.pdf

notimagain · 19/05/2023 17:14

In case that report is TL; DR (it's RUSI soit gets a bit heavy) I'll offer up a C&P of the first paragraph of the conclusion to that report:

"
The tendency in much of the international discourse surrounding the Russian military has been to write it off as tactically inept, technically deficient and morally broken. These criticisms have more than a grain of truth to them. Nevertheless, they tend to extrapolate from the performance of certain Russian units to the whole force. Alongside their deficiencies, Russian forces have demonstrated that much of their equipment is effective, highly lethal and adaptable to a range of threats. While there are serious deficiencies in Russian capabilities, these are most pronounced in conducting offensive operations. Conversely, many of Russia’s combat support arms have not only demonstrated reasonable proficiency but have also shown that they are able to adapt to emerging threats"

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 18:15

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 19/05/2023 14:36

Trusts his sergeant and has the sense to know who does the actual work? Sounds a good officer to me.

Sounds like a bloody idiotic officer to me, if he wants an entire hill removed!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/05/2023 18:18

@notimagain other very experienced observers have said the same about the Russians :/

Thomas Theiner has just made a good point about speed of Ukraine learning:

Thomas C. Theiner
AT noclador
Β·
2h

In just three months we went from:

β€’ "Patriots are too complicated for Ukrainians to operate" to

β€’ "Ukrainians are the first in history to shoot down an air-launched ballistic missile" to

β€’ "Ukrainians defeated the most complex missile attack in human history."

https://twitter.com/noclador