I haven't posted anything from the WSJ recently, and I thought this was worth sharing. The military term for this strategy is interdiction - disruption of the enemy's ability to supply itself and conduct operations before the start of an operation. There's an obvious focus on petroleum infrastructure. Russia, as a major oil producer, has plenty of petrol for its army, but they have to distribute it around the front, so oil products storage facilities are a high priority target. It's worth remembering that one factor in stopping the attempt to capture Kiev last year was that they ran out of diesel fuel for the tanks and infantry vehicles.
The Offensive Before the Offensive: Ukraine Strikes Behind Russian LinesKyiv aims to destroy ammunition, fuel and other supplies as it seeks to starve Russian forces in the field ahead of broader ground campaign
May 17, 2023 7:43 am ET
To set the stage, Ukraine has stepped up attacks on positions well inside Russian-held territory, part of what strategists call shaping operations, which are aimed at undermining the enemy and probing for gaps to exploit.
Ukraine staged similar attacks last year using U.S.-supplied Himars rocket systems before retaking territory in the Kharkiv region and the city of Kherson. Now it is reaching farther, using drones as well as newly supplied British long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
For Ukraine, which is battling a larger military, the attacks are important to chip away at Russia’s battlefield resources.
Any engagement longer than a few days becomes a logistical contest, say commanders, so destroying stores of ammunition, fuel and spare parts can be more significant than taking out individual tanks or artillery pieces, because the impact can be broader. A tank without fuel or shells is of little use.
“This is the preparatory stage,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko, an analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies. “It is about destabilizing and weakening the capabilities of the enemy before the offensive.”
Recent blasts at Russian infrastructure [annotated map]
May 10
Druzhba pipeline in Sven
BELARUS
May 2
Train derailment in Belye Berega
May 11
Oil depot in Klintsy
May 1
Train derailment in
Unechsky District
Apr. 24 & 27
Oil depot in Rovenki
May 3
Oil storage reservoir in Volna
May 4 & 5
Oil refinery in Ilsky
Apr. 29
Fuel tank in Sevastopol
Black Sea
Moscow has blamed Kyiv for the recent spate of attacks targeting fuel storage and distribution networks on Russian soil and in occupied regions of Ukraine. Ukraine hasn’t claimed responsibility for the strikes.
In the most recent attack, a drone dropped explosives on a fuel depot in Russia’s Bryansk region, which borders Belarus and Ukraine, causing damage.
Days earlier, Russian state media said a fire broke out at the Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region after two days of drone attacks on the facility, which is almost 300 miles from the nearest Ukrainian-held area.
Russia said Ukraine used the Storm Shadow in strikes on the occupied eastern Luhansk region last week. Ukraine didn’t comment on the missile’s use.
“Every time they have to pull depots back further, it limits the amount that can get to the front because it has to go further in trucks,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland.
Recent attacks also include four on Russia’s fuel storage and distribution network on or near the occupied Crimean Peninsula. That fuel is used to power both Russia’s naval fleet at Sevastopol and its forces occupying parts of the southern Ukrainian regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where analysts predict Kyiv may attempt a breakthrough.
Moscow, meanwhile, is seeking to disrupt Ukraine’s preparations for an offensive. Russian officials said this week they had killed Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed arms depots and Western military systems bound for the front line in missile strikes on the city of Ternopil, hundreds of miles behind the front. Ukraine said civilian buildings—not military targets—were hit.
Russian strikes on the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad earlier this month hit railroad infrastructure and fuel and ammunition depots that Kyiv had been storing up for an offensive to retake occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia, said Russian-installed regional official Vladimir Rogov.
Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russia’s fuel storage and distribution network will likely force Moscow to adjust its military refueling operations, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense said. That could include deploying additional protection measures at fuel-storage sites or relying on infrastructure in less threatened regions, it said.
Following an attack on an oil depot in Russia’s Bryansk region, Ukrainian former comedian and TV presenter Serhiy Prytula hinted it had been carried out using drones purchased through a crowdfunding initiative launched by his foundation.
Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of the Ukrainian parliament involved in defense issues, said hitting Russian supplies was critical to battlefield successes last year.
“When we first got Himars we hit their logistics—that is how we got Kherson back,” she said, noting that Russia then had to pull its supplies back more than 50 miles to keep them out of the mobile rocket-launchers’ range.
Extended-range drones and commandos operating in dangerous territories have allowed Ukraine to hit Russian equipment outside the range of Himars rocket systems. Now the addition of European long-range cruise missiles should allow Ukraine to strike even deeper and with greater impunity.
Britain said earlier this month it would give Ukraine an unspecified number of Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which are launched from jet fighters and have a range up to 150 miles and pack a bigger explosive punch than the rockets that Ukraine’s Himars fire.
“This will cause a ‘Himars effect’ on Russian logistics” at distances between 60 and 120 miles from the front line, said Trent Telenko, a former official at the Pentagon’s Defense Contract Management Agency who has studied Russian military logistics.
Ukrainian journalists have identified more than 220 Russian military targets beyond the reach of Kyiv’s Himars but within range of the cruise missiles, Telenko said. Their stockpiles include everything troops need, but especially artillery ammunition.
“All of them are now at risk,” he said.
If Moscow is compelled to withdraw vital supplies more than 120 miles from the front, forces within that band will be inside what Telenko called a “sort of logistical desert” and be forced to rely on extended, vulnerable supply lines.
The Storm Shadow cruise missiles can also threaten Russian air and naval bases in occupied Crimea, potentially thwarting Russian efforts to disrupt Ukraine’s offensive, analysts said. As well as lengthening Kyiv’s reach, the missiles carry a far heavier explosive payload than drones can, allowing them to destroy bunkers and fortified targets.
The stealthy missiles also have advanced guidance and targeting systems that allow them to fly low and be routed around Russian air defenses, increasing their chance of hitting targets.