Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

There were significant numbers of below-10 children imprisoned, tortured and killed in Syria. I don't think there's any doubt that this could well have happened. In the early days of the Ukraine war there were reported (by reputable sources) of cruelty and killings of very small children. It isn't something they shy away from.

Utterly horrific. I'd hope it wasn't true but sadly I think it most likely is

Unfortunately children, and other innocents, are often those most cruelly treated. It’s vile but not unusual in war. It really brings out the animal in some 😭

After that, maybe we need to lighten the mood a bit =- so here is a joke from Zelensky (seems to have been recorded in October)

www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-cracks-joke-about-jewish-guys-from-odesa-on-letterman/

lol

Ukrainian humour is the BEST

Day 293, December 13, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 14 December 2022

🔥 Frontline Update
No significant changes on the frontline. RU focuses its efforts on the Maryinka-Bakhmut and Kreminna-Svatove directions. RU units of recruited inmates and the mobilized regularly attack UA positions. Change of tactics from RU army: attacks by small mobile groups of infantry; small units are easier to manage and motivate. Battalion attacks are long gone.
A solution that is impossible in developed countries is the sanitary cleansing of the Russian Federation from its prisoners. By amassing the frontlines with tens of thousands of inmates, RU gains time to prepare its professional reserves. By January-February, Russia’s restored units will likely attempt to seize the initiative on the fronts.
Related to this is the media hysteria about the “imminent” attack from Belarus, which began checks of combat readiness and whose special forces advanced toward the border. However, only 12 armored personnel carriers were spotted. This is just a diversion tactic, according to Arestovych, to tie up UA forces in the North and not transfer them to the East and South.

🔥 Weapons
Pentagon found no cases of misuse of Western weapons supplied to UA. The issue is mostly raised out of the confrontation between Republicans and Democrats. Despite multiple accusations that the supplied weapons have been illegally sold, there’s been no proof. UA is open to inspection and takes military equipment accounting seriously.
According to CNN, the US may transfer the Patriot air defense system to UA in the coming weeks. UA military will be trained on their use at a base in Germany. Arestovych views this measure as inevitable; the question is the delivery time. Patriots will significantly strengthen UA air defense and reduce the effectiveness of Russian attacks and massive raids. But UA also awaits the decision on the supply of offensive weapons to begin liberating its territory.

🔥 Zaporizhye NPP
Zaporizhye NPP: an agreement is possible on the withdrawal of heavy weapons by the Russian army before the end of the year. The question is whether it will be previously imposed penalties or a postponement of future sanctions that is discussed with Moscow.

🔥 Hungary
According to Arestovych, Hungary’s blocking the introduction of the 9th package of anti-Russian sanctions is deeply immoral against the background of the genocide of Ukrainians and may result in the country’s withdrawal from the EU and NATO. The position of Hungary’s leadership is clear; they tried to torpedo aid to Ukraine, which ensures the survival of UA civilian population; Hungary blackmails EU to obtain preferences and plays complementary for Moscow, designated by NATO as its main threat. Hungary’s collaborative politics go against the EU and NATO efforts.

🔥 Confiscation of Assets
The UK is considering a mechanism to use frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine. UA’s victory and weakening of the Kremlin will allow the UK to regain its position as a superpower. They are now debating, discussing, and probing public opinion; this will take time, but when they reach a consensus and begin confiscating assets, other states will follow their lead.
The process of alienating and seizing UA properties owned by the Russian State Duma deputies will also happen in Ukraine in due time.

🔥 Putin’s address canceled
Putin might not address the federal assembly or appear at the annual press conference. Arestovych expects no annual speeches by Putin in December: the dictator-terrorist has nothing to present to RU population at this point nor to offer any bright prospects and promises of RU’s retaliatory measures. Putin cannot report any encouraging figures; they all show downward trends. RU is waiting for any diplomatic and military achievements before Putin addresses the assembly and the public.
Another reason for not making public addresses is his deteriorating physical state. Arestovych explained his comment from an interview with Dmitri Gordon during a stroll at a cemetery: it was not a forecast but an assumption that Putin might die in April 2023. They discussed the end of the war. Arestovych expects the active fighting to fade by mid-summer unless a “black swan” event (Putin’s death) takes place earlier, say in April. In that case, the war will end much sooner.

🔥 RU planned offensive
The Russian military-political command is trying to seize the initiative at the front. Arestovych expects them to begin in mid-December and attempt to gain territory by February, to present something to the population on the anniversary of the war. This offensive will be drawn-out, similar to what they did in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and are doing in Bakhmut as they lack resources for a quick offensive. The plans are there but may not be realized. UA is not going to wait and watch.

🔥 Partners’ Support
UA informs its partners of these developments, which will lead to more aid. G7 shows unwavering support to UA and states that Putin will be personally held accountable for the war.

No stream on Wednesday, December 14

Politico now reporting that Poland have blocked the 18 billion euro package over concerns related to minimum corporate taxes within the same package. Some speculation that it also relates to Poland's PM recently calling for the EU to release 35 billion euros in recovery fund cash (which they intend to give to the Polish courts).

Expected to be discussed at today's EU summit. Frankly I'm quite disappointed in the Polish.

Russian troops desperate to take Bakhmut, it looks like they've been told to prevail at all costs to often the Russian people 'a win':

SitRep - 14/12 - Bakhmut is in danger

An overview of the daily events in the war between Russia and Ukraine. It seems that Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops have been rotated, but that has apparently failed to stop the Russian attack.

I keep losing posts when I try to add a link so I'll post link separately.

twitter.com/noelreports/status/1603164360976777218?s=46&t=VwUl1n53KjvCeYdfhLAbMw

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 09:18
Russian troops desperate to take Bakhmut, it looks like they've been told to prevail at all costs to often the Russian people 'a win':

SitRep - 14/12 - Bakhmut is in danger

An overview of the daily events in the war between Russia and Ukraine. It seems that Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Bakhmut. Ukrainian troops have been rotated, but that has apparently failed to stop the Russian attack.

I keep losing posts when I try to add a link so I'll post link separately.

Thank you. That is worrying. It may be like Mariupol, just obliterated.

ScrollingLeaves it is obliterated, photographs show it like a post apocalyptic landscape but Wagner forces are concentrated there and their moronic leader is desperate to demonstrate that they can regain ground. Of course they're pushing enlisted prisoners and conscripts into battle first in wave after wave of attack so human life doesn't seem to have much value.

Here's a lovely possibly over optimistic article from Con Coughlin Defence Editor of The Telegraph:

Putin’s sudden capitulation is a real prospect

With military defeat finally sinking in, the Russian president’s appetite for battle has begun to wane

It is a sure sign that all is not well at the court of King Vlad when the Russian despot has to cancel his annual press conferencee_, which he has long regarded as one of the highlights of the Kremlin’s calendar.
Usually, Vladimir Putin’s festive get-together with the world’s media provides him with the perfect opportunity to showcase his achievements. With all the questions carefully vetted in advance to ensure he is not caught off guard, the marathon sessions, which have been known to run for four-and-a-half hours, allow him free rein to deliver a masterclass in disinformation.
In one of his more memorable performances in 2020, when he was questioned about claims that Russia’s security forces were behind the attempted murder of dissident Alexei Navalnyy_, Putin breezily replied that if the Russians had really wanted him dead, then they would have “finished” the job. He was equally dismissive of suggestions that Russian hackers had interfered in the American electoral process, claiming the accusations had been made up by Moscow’s opponents “to hurt US-Russia relations”.
It is a great pity, after the episodes Putin has experienced in Ukraine, that this year’s event has been unexpectedly cancelled. It would have been fascinating to hear the Russian leader’s take on how his “special military operation” – his term for invading Ukraine – is progressing, or how the newly annexed territories of eastern Ukraine are enjoying life under Russian rule. Those areas, that is, that have not already been recaptured by the Ukrainianss_.

While no explanation has been forthcoming from the Kremlin as to why the press conference was cancelled, the general suspicion is that, given the numerous humiliating setbacks the Russians have suffered during their ten-month assault on Ukraine, Putin dare not risk making any public appearances, not even at a carefully choreographed event like his annual media show.
For, despite the vetting, Putin would still be expected to address a number of difficult issues, whether it is offering his condolences to the families of Russia’s estimated 100,000 combat casualties, or explaining why key strategic cities like Kherson are no longer under Russian control.
The Kremlin knows that not even its sophisticated propaganda outlets can conceal the fact that 2022 has been an unmitigated disaster for Putin and the Russian military, to the extent that the Russian people are now well aware of the defeats they have suffered, with the latest opinion polls showing that only one in four Russians now support this new “great patriotic war”.
Having run out of men and equipment (Putin earlier this week admitted the Russians were even struggling to provide clothing for front-line troopss_), the Russians have had to resort to using Iranian-made drones to target Ukraine’s infrastructure, which is about the only tactic left for the Kremlin to employ in its continued assault. The rest of the military cupboard is bare.
The effectiveness of the drone attacks, though, is becoming less potent by the day as the Ukrainians become more adept at intercepting them before they hit their targets. And the Ukrainians’ ability to defend themselves will soon be greatly enhanced with President Biden authorising the deployment of Patriot missile defence systemss_.
It isn’t just on the battlefield that Putin finds himself on the defensive. Whatever narratives his supporters across the world may conjure up, Western sanctions are having a debilitating impact on the Russian economy, while the Kremlin’s hopes that its finances would be buoyed by high oil prices have failed to materialise. Indeed, global oil prices have slumped as the industrialised nations face an economic downturn.
With Putin rapidly running out of options, there are suggestions that the Russian leader may be interested in negotiating an end to the hostilities.
A number of Western leaders, including Biden and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, have been pushing for a negotiated settlementt_. Some have suggested they could even be pressuring the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to open peace talks with Moscow. Turkey has certainly been lobbying Moscow and Kyiv to enter negotiations.
From Putin’s perspective, a new round of negotiations over the disputed Ukrainian territory would help ease some of his immediate troubles, which explains why he recently stated he is “open” to the idea.
But while any initiative that leads to ending the bloodshed is to be welcomed, it is vital that Western leaders do not fall into a trap of Putin’s making. Prior to invading Ukraine, Russia was involved in peace talks with Kyiv as part of the Minsk agreement, but little was achieved because of Moscow’s refusal to give up any of the territory it illegally occupied in Crimea and eastern Ukraine in 2014. Russia’s position remains the same today.
Moreover, any future peace settlement must address the numerous war crimes Putin’s forces have committed since the invasion. Talks aimed at ending the conflict might seem a good idea, but not if they mean letting the despot off the hook.

OMG 😂😂😂 Kadyrov thinks he's an action hero!

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1603336191058870272?s=46&t=-2dubxeAz9ALV4is9nXZiA

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 11:05
OMG 😂😂😂 Kadyrov thinks he's an action hero!

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1603336191058870272?s=46&t=-2dubxeAz9ALV4is9nXZiA

My tummy hurts from laughing.

A bit of truth finds it's way onto propaganda TV:

Russian rapper Ptaha says on Russian TV that people have no idea why Russia is at war with Ukraine.

He adds that Wagner's mercenaries are fighting because they earn money that way (their salaries really are large).

twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1603350854723059712?s=46&t=-2dubxeAz9ALV4is9nXZiA

He is such a colossal bell end. A total parody of so many things.

ISW Key Takeaways

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly postponed his annual address to the Russian Federal Assembly, indicating that the Kremlin is not confident that it can continue to shape the Russian information space.

Ukrainian officials are forecasting that Russian forces may attempt to launch a large-scale offensive at the beginning of 2023.

Ukrainian air defenses shot down all drones that Russian forces launched in attacks on December 14.

Ukrainian sources reported that 64 POWs returned to Ukrainian-held territory.

The Kremlin will likely intensify information operations aimed at presenting the Ukrainian government as oppressing religious liberties and freedom of the press.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and Russian forces conducted counterattacks in the Svatove and Kreminna areas.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.

Russian forces continued defensive operations south of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Kremlin officials admitted to receiving complaints about mobilization despite mobilization’s "de facto end."

Ukrainian partisans continue to aid Ukrainian forces in identifying valuable Russian targets.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ Zelensky commends air defense after it takes down all 13 drones that attack Kyiv on the morning of Dec. 14.

⚡️⚡️Another prisoner swap takes place: 64 Ukrainian soldiers liberated (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/64-ukrainian-prisoners-of-war-return-from-russian-captivity) from Russian captivity.

Suedi Murekezi, a U.S. citizen, was also liberated in the swap. He was detained by Russian forces in Kherson in June, while helping civilians there as a volunteer.

⚡️Ombudsman: Children's torture chamber found (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ombudsman-childrens-torture-chamber-found-in-liberated-kherson) in liberated Kherson.

Ukrainian authorities discovered a room that Russians used to detain and torture children during the occupation of Kherson, Dmytro Lubinets, the Human Rights Commissioner of the Verkhovna Rada, said on Dec. 14. (www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/12/14/7380716/)

⚡️Ombudsman: 20% of Ukraine’s pre-war population (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ombudsman-20-of-ukraines-pre-war-population-left-country-since-feb-24) left country since Feb. 24.

European Parliament approves 18 billion euro aid package to Ukraine after deal with Hungary (kyivindependent.com/national/european-parliament-approves-18-billion-euros-aid-to-ukraine-after-deal-with-hungary)
The European Parliament finally approved an 18 billion euro macro-financial aid package to Ukraine on Dec. 14, after striking a deal with Hungary to drop its veto.

BUT

⚡️ Politico: Poland blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-poland-blocks-eu-package-deal-including-18-billion-euros-aid-for-ukraine) EU package deal, including 18 billion euros aid for Ukraine.
Poland has refused to back an EU package deal that would release 18 billion euros in aid for Ukraine, Politico reported, citing four unnamed EU diplomats.

⚡️Zelensky talks with Guterres, urges UN to send experts to Ukraine’s energy facilities.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-talks-with-guterres-urges-un-to-send-experts-to-ukraines-energy-facilities) on Dec. 14 that he had “urged” UN Secretary-General António Guterres to send experts to energy facilities in Ukraine “as soon as possible” amid Russia’s missile blitz targeting energy infrastructure.

⚡️WSJ: China’s leader Xi deepening economic ties (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/wsj-chinas-leader-xi-deepening-economic-ties-with-putins-russia-despite-public-distance) with Putin’s Russia despite public distance.

China's President Xi Jinping has instructed his government to deepen economic ties with Russia despite his months-long public distance from the Kremlin amid its humiliating battlefield defeats in Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 14, citing policy advisers to Beijing.

⚡️Anti-Corruption Court seizes all property (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/anti-corruption-court-seizes-all-property-from-ousted-ex-president-yanukovych) from ousted ex-President Yanukovych.

The High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) said on Dec. 14 that it had seized all assets from former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, nearly nine years after Euromaidan Revolution ousted him in 2014.

⚡️Politico: EU and NATO almost ready to issue long-delayed joint pledge (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-eu-and-nato-almost-ready-to-issue-long-delayed-joint-pledge-to-back-ukraine) to back Ukraine.

Nine months into the full-scale invasion, the EU and NATO are expected to soon formally issue a joint statement for Russia to stop its war and leave Ukraine, and to pledge full support to Kyiv.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-repels-russian-attacks-near-6-settlements-in-donetsk-oblast) Russian attacks near 6 settlements in Donetsk Oblast.

Over the past day, Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian attacks near Verkhniokamianske, Yakovlivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Vesele and Mariinka in Donetsk Oblast,
[Bakhmut holds!]

⚡️ Washington Post: US plans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/washington-post-us-plans-to-send-ukraine-smart-bomb-kits) to send Ukraine smart-bomb kits.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is considering providing Ukraine with advanced electronic equipment that turns unguided aerial munitions into “smart bombs” capable of hitting Russian military positions “with a high degree of accuracy,” WP reported, citing senior U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest from Ukraine:
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/15/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- The United States plans to send Ukraine advanced “smart bomb” equipment that would allow it to target Russian military positions with better accuracy, senior U.S. officials said.

• Ukraine repelled a swarm of attack drones targeting central Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, shooting down more than a dozen of the Iranian-made aircraft on Wednesday.

• If the United States were to send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, they would be legitimate targets for Russia’s military, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

• Raids on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in nine regions on Wednesday led to the discovery of Russian passports and propaganda material, according to Ukraine’s security service.

• Russia’s withdrawal from parts of the Kherson region has freed up combat power that Moscow has redeployed to various areas in the Donbas region, according to the Institute for the Study of War think tank.

(busy day, ill try to catch up the other telegram roundups later or tomorrow)

Personnel losses are still high while equipment losses not so big. Maybe Bakhmut attacks, or hypothermia losses?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Today 13:08
ISW Key Takeaways

Politico: Poland blocks (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-poland-blocks-eu-package-deal-including-18-billion-euros-aid-for-ukraine) EU package deal, including 18 billion euros aid for Ukraine.
Poland has refused to back an EU package deal that would release 18 billion euros in aid for Ukraine, Politico reported, citing four unnamed EU diplomats.

Isn’t that surprising? Poland has always been such an ally. Does anyone know why?

From Release’s key takeaways.

If the United States were to send Patriot missile systems to Ukraine, they would be legitimate targets for Russia’s military, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters

By, ^they would be legitimate targets for Russia’s military’, do they mean America?

If they just mean the Patriot missile systems in Ukraine, what’s the difference seeing as everywhere in Ukraine has already been treated as a legitimate target for Russia’s military?

I was surprised by this too. Everything sent to Ukraine is a target. Upon reflection, I think the message was that these scarce, costly systems would be destroyed by Russia. They're certainly welcome to try, but I don't think that will be able to successfully target and destroy them.

Here's an article about how the Russians could threaten the Patriot batteries deployed in Ukraine.

Patriot Missile Batteries In Ukraine Would Be Top Targets For Russia - In Ukraine, the Patriot air defense system would face threats unlike any it’s faced before, but they would still be a very tough target.

I don't think the Russians would risk fighter aircraft to attack them, as they would be easy targets for the Patriots.

I haven't seen this anywhere else and would have expected it to hit the news bigstyle. I hope it's a mistake.

Im curious as to what's causing the higher numbers of Russian deaths again.

It does seem that Bakhmut is being lost though. The Russian troops have entered the outskirts.

Aircraft - no, not an attractive prospect

OTOH it might be interesting in seeing how Patriot vs. Iskander(s) match up might get a lot of people paying attention.

MissConductUS · Today 16:38
Here's an article about how the Russians could threaten the Patriot batteries deployed in Ukraine.

Patriot Missile Batteries In Ukraine Would Be Top Targets For Russia - In Ukraine, the Patriot air defense system would face threats unlike any it’s faced before, but they would still be a very tough target.

I don't think the Russians would risk fighter aircraft to attack them, as they would be easy targets for the Patriots.

Thank you for answering my question earlier MissConduct. This definitely makes it clear that the targets would be the Patriot missiles in Ukraine.

I think I heard the Poland thing on the World Service this morning while I was not quite awake yet, and I got the impression it was being done because Poland wanted something from the EU for themselves and was doing a quick bit of blackmail to get it. I mean sorry, hoping for a quid pro quo.

But actually it looks as if what they opposed was not the aid package itself but an associated thing they had already opposed and which had been put into the same package deal:

tsn.ua/en/ato/poland-blocked-billions-of-financial-support-for-ukraine-from-the-eu-2223745.html
and
www.politico.eu/article/poland-holds-up-ukraine-aid-and-hungary-plans-over-tax-concerns/

Reuters says they have now decided to let it go ahead:

www.reuters.com/markets/europe/poland-drops-veto-global-min-corp-tax-clears-way-ukraine-funding-package-2022-12-15/