Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

@notimagain thanks for the explanation. I did not know it was an old tactic. In WW2, would 'air defence' comprise other fighter pilots?

Who would want to be in the first wave of 'assets' to draw fire from air defence. Sounds suicidal if they are real life pilots rather than unmanned drones. The bravery and skill is unimaginable.

Are barrage balloons used against drones? To protect key infrastructure?

Day 314, January 3rd. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 04 January 2023

Battlefield overview
Ukrainian defenders continue to destroy Russian military warehouses and bases, with at least 5 cases of a large number of Russian soldiers hit in the Kherson region (2), Tokmak (1) and occupied Donetsk region (3), resulting in mass Russian casualties.
Russia continues shelling Ukrainian territory and attacks on critical infrastructure and Ukrainian civilians.

🔥Kherson
Ukraine liberated the island of Bolshoi Potemkovskij (on the Dnipro River) from the Russian presence, putting back the Ukrainian flag. Part of the 2 Russian BTG previously stationed there fled the island, part stayed there forever.

🔥Zaporizhzhya
Russian forces are regrouping and reinforcing their defences, fearing a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhja region.

🔥Bahmut & Soledar
Heavy fighting continues. Ukrainian forces are holding their ground and Russian forces lost some ground near Bahmut. The Bahmut-Soledar direction continues to be the main direction of a Russian attack. Russian advance in Mariinka is exaggerated and Ukraine holds the town.
Russia is continuously shelling Bahmut with artillery and sending waves of Wagner recruits (in some cases potentially sending Russian infantry to attack under heavy drugs). However, international observers point out that Wagner has failed to achieve its objectives and the intensity of their attack is decreasing.

🔥Kreminna & Svatove
Local clashes continue. Russia has concentrated forces to attack Ukrainian positions in this direction, with two Russian generals recently visiting the Russian positions to force their subordinates to stage a large-scale attack (after the previous Russian attempt two weeks ago failed). Ukraine is aware of this and is preparing for the next Russian move (around Lyman and Bilogorivka).

🔥Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities
Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian cities in Zaporizhzhja, Kryvyj Rig, Kharkiv and Kherson region using drones and missiles, attempting to target critical infrastructure and terrorise civilians. In the Kherson region, the artillery shelling on residential areas by Russia continues.

🔥Makeevka
About 400 Russian mobilized (originating from different Russian cities, like Samara and Saratov) died as a result of a Ukrainian strike on a building where they were housed in Makeevka, in the Russia-occupied part of Donetsk region. The large number of KIA is due to Russia housing mobilized in large numbers in one non-reinforced building, together with ammunition and equipment just next to it. The secondary detonations of ammunition after the HIMARS strike levelled the building, resulting in mass casualties for Russia.
This is not an isolated incident, as Russian occupiers were hit in at least 5 different locations on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region, in Tokmak (Zaporizhzhia) and in the occupied Donetsk region (resulting in dozens of casualties in each case).
The last excuse from the Russian official sources and propaganda for the gross negligence on the part of the Russian army command is that the mobilized were using phones that were detected by Ukrainian forces and helped direct the strike. This is an attempt of the Russian regime to avoid blame by scape-goating the dead mobilised.
In reality, the phones of the mobilized are confiscated (thus fewer videos of the conditions of the mobilized recently). The Russian mobilized are shipped to the frontlines and many are housed near the ammunition dumps and equipment. Therefore, Ukrainian defenders will continue strikes on the Russian invaders until they leave Ukraine one way or another. This is the fate of the Russian mobilized – to be sent to Ukraine to die. The Russian populace should remember that.* *

🔥Russian attack on Ukrainian cities on New Year’s Eve
Russia staged a series of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities during the New Year’s Eve celebration to attempt to lower Ukrainian civilians’ morale. The attack on Kyiv came in two waves, the first was targeting Governmental buildings (all missiles were shot down) and hotels in central Kyiv (injuring one Japanese journalist) and the second wave was targeting Ukrainian critical energy infrastructure. Almost all of Shahid drones and missiles were shot down by the Ukrainian air defence.
Russian propaganda is trying to present the strike on the hotel in Kyiv as an attack on “NATO operatives” to sell it to the domestic Russian public.

🔥Ukrainian defenders
The Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, territorial defence, the whole of Ukraine is fighting to defend Ukraine from Russian aggressors. Or, in the words of President Zelensky, – “Ukrainians are fighting for each other”.

🔥Russian mobilization
The Ukrainian Minister of Defence has stated that Russia is preparing the next round of mobilization after the 5th of January 2023. The mobilization in the Russian Federation started 3 weeks after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and hasn’t stopped since then. First, it was a “hidden” mobilization conducted by the Russian army, then the open & “partial” mobilization started in September and hasn’t really stopped. Russia managed to gather almost 300k in the first wave. Of this first wave, the unfortunate 150k were immediately sent to the frontlines without training. Another half was sent to the training centres, receiving the varying quality of training. While Russia has already spent 150k of the first wave, the Russian command has already decided to use the rest of the mobilized to attack Ukraine (either on a suicide attack on the North of Ukraine, or to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region).
The Russian regime will mobilize more people because they realise that the remaining 150k from the first wave will die attacking Ukraine.
Putin’s main objective now is to remain in power to physically survive in Russia. Putin is willing to sacrifice as many Russians as he can to force some kind of ceasefire & negotiations on Ukraine and the West. He will try to sell a ceasefire/negotiations as a “victory” because a defeat will mean the physical removal of Putin from power, and thus, his physical demise will certainly follow.
The new mobilization wave in Russia will lead to another mass exit from Russia. Therefore, the Russian regime will probably attempt to close the borders.

🔥The next couple of months will be decisive
In the next couple of months, Russia will struggle with:

1. managing to recruit another 300k mobilized;
2. finding equipment and logistic capacities to deal with these mobilised;
3. finding officers to manage all the mobilized;
4. deciding on the direction of the attack. Different Russian factions are arguing to use the mobilized to:
5. attack the North of Ukraine, which will be a suicide;
6. or attack Zaporizhzhja and Donbas direction (maybe also Kharkiv) or;
7. the most feasible, attack to occupy the rest of the Donetsk region. Ukraine is not only better prepared now but is also supported by the West (economically and militarily). The West has already prepared to help Ukraine’s economy and is increasing the capacity of its industrial-military complex to aid Ukraine, with military aid probably increasing and including novel armament in the future. While Russia will try to force a long war of attrition or a frozen conflict on Ukraine and the West, the international military experts are questioning the Russian capacity to arm, equip and feed the mobilized. While Ukraine may still see some bloody battles and face some struggles, the Ukrainians will continue to fight for its survival and for the liberation of all Ukrainian territories – this is non-negotiable.

🔥Russia – poverty & death ahead
Russian exports to the EU have dropped due to sanctions. Thus, the Russian economy will have a large budget deficit, leading the Kremlin to cut social support. The potential Russian mobilized should remember that their quality of life will drop in Russia and that Putin is willinGeorgia’sg to send another 400k of Russian as cannon fodder to die in Ukraine.

🔥Saving Saakashvili
The worldwide action to demand medical treatment and fair trial for long-term Putin’s critic, Georgia’s ex-president Mikhail Saakashvili, will start on the 4th of January at noon, at your local Georgian embassy. The current pro-Russian Georgian Government is denying proper medical treatment to Saakashvili who was poisoned while in custody and is dragging him to a trial – this is a violation of the human right of life, dignity and the right to proper medical treatment. #SaveMisha
Next stream is on Thursday, 5th of January.

BBC 2 at 2100 - “Ukraine: The People’s Fight”

Thanks, I've set that to record.

@blueshoes

I did not know it was an old tactic. In WW2, would 'air defence' comprise other fighter pilots?

On a historical note the bomber stream tactic was invented by the RAF as a means of trying to overwhelm German night fighter defences in WW2...back in the day the radars on the fighters weren't to good so there was a lot of reliance on controllers on the ground so if they could be saturated .....

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bomber_stream#:~:text=The%20bomber%20stream%20was%20a,Line%20during%20World%20War%20II.

In the modern environment fighters are able to operate more autonomously but even so the stream tactic may have value (there's also a whole set of other problems such as trying to deconflict SAMs and the friendly fighters, plus the low, slow Iranian drones make for a tricky target from a fighter, as at least one Ukrainian pilot has found out, so I'm not sure how much of a role the Ukrainian fighter force is playing in combating those things.)

@strawberriesarenot

Are barrage balloons used against drones? To protect key infrastructure?

I've seen some discussion of the pros and cons of using barrage/cable balloons but not seen any evidence that they have been deployed.

There was discussion previously about how the Ukrainians cope with Ru human wave attacks made by large numbers of mobiks. Here's a report from a Ukrainian soldier on just that question.

twitter.com/grahworin/status/1610333385838182403?s=20

I knew things were dire in the Ru army, but I didn't know they were this bad.

Dedovshchina: How Russia Creates Soldiers who think nothing of Committing War Crimes.

One note on the warm weather in most of Europe, including Ukraine. The ground not freezing is a disadvantage for Ukraine in that it inhibits attacks on the Russians by tanks and other armored vehicles, but there are some distinct upsides. It's easier for Ukrainian civilians to manage the power cuts and lack of heating, and natural gas prices are down for everyone in Europe due to lower than expected demand. It's almost as if the weather is on Ukraine's side. 😃

there's also a whole set of other problems such as trying to deconflict SAMs and the friendly fighters,

There are claims that a LOT of Russian air losses have been due to friendly fire, and at least one early Ukrainian air loss was confirmed ff.

We brushed up against this issue the other night and I think my response was less than helpful and wasn't one of my best...Fundamentally throughout the history of warfare there have been "blue on blue" and there always will be.

In the case of the air war everything can happen very quickly and indecision can be fatal...something unknown can appear on a screen and potentially be within the envelope to (perhaps) deliver it's (perhaps) anti-radar ordnance within a few seconds.

Whilst you hope there are really rigid checks/rules in place such as "do not fire at anything in this box of airspace" or "do not fire at anything sending out this code on their identifying transmitter (aka IFF/transponder)" it only needs the SAM operators to be slightly nervous and/or for the transponder on an aircraft to not be working properly and so not sending codes and the SAM people might decide to fire just in case.

It takes very very rigid discipline to simply reduce the number of "blue on blues" to low numbers, I'm not sure you'll ever eradicate it compeletly.

@notimagain thanks for the link to the bomber stream tactic. That was fascinating.

Plenty of Russian bots out tonight on that other Ukraine thread. Good to see so many people robustly challenging them too.

"House without a speaker as McCarthy fails to secure majority in six rounds of voting – as it happened"

www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2023/jan/04/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-republicans-trump-live-updates

Not saying that this is a sign of support for Ukraine but worth keeping an eye on in terms of the temperature of US support as we go forward?

I’m finding this fascinating. Just when you think American politics can’t be any more fucked.

Does anyone know what happens if they continue to be unable to reach the required number of votes, they surely can’t keep on voting indefinitely. I understand this is the first time in over 100 years of this happening so largely untested.

Not saying that this is a sign of support for Ukraine but worth keeping an eye on in terms of the temperature of US support as we go forward?

I don't think there's any connection to levels of support for Ukraine. The problem is that the Republicans were elected with such a slim majority that it allows a handful of them to hold up the process to get what they want in other areas.

Does anyone know what happens if they continue to be unable to reach the required number of votes, they surely can’t keep on voting indefinitely. I understand this is the first time in over 100 years of this happening so largely untested.

There's an old saying that what can't continue won't continue. I imagine the holdouts will be threatened with loss of committee membership (and thus power) if they don't go along. Or another candidate will be put forward. Now that we have decided government Congress wasn't going to accomplish much anyway.

Thanks @MissConductUS

It took two months in 1855/1856. There were 133 votes during that time; twenty candidates were involved.

Well frankly that just sounds exhausting!

Biden already reckons the whole pathetic mess is embarrassing, and that was when it was only in its second day.

Interesting article on the law of armed conflict from the MoD website:

oh doh, sorry.

medium.com/voices-of-the-armed-forces/explained-inside-the-uk-led-training-programme-for-ukrainian-recruits-277d630e4073

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

The Russian milblogger information space continues to seize on official responses to the Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka to criticize endemic issues in the Russian military apparatus and its unwillingness to address systemic failures.

The continued construction of Russian units using solely mobilized recruits will not generate combat power commensurate with the number of mobilized personnel deployed.

The Russian MoD has again shifted the rhetoric and format of its daily situational reports (SITREPs) likely to flood the information space with insignificant claimed successes and distract from its significant military failures.

Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated that Ukrainian forces intend to launch a major counteroffensive throughout Ukraine in the spring of 2023.

Russian forces are increasingly reliant upon Iranian-made drones to strike Ukrainian critical infrastructure, and Russia will likely seek further bilateral cooperation with Iran in order to secure a greater number of high-precision weapons systems for use in Ukraine.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian strikes reportedly damaged Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut amid continued indicators that the broader offensive may be culminating.

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian forces continued to rebuild force capability and conduct defensive operations in Kherson Oblast on January 4.

Select Russian private armament manufacturers are continuing to criticize the Russian military campaign.

Russian occupation authorities continued to take measures to resolve administrative issues associated with consolidating Russian control of occupied territories on January 4.

Pushilin’s indication that certain Russian units are relying on newly mobilized and poorly trained recruits for leadership roles, as opposed to drawing from the combat-hardened officer cadre, adds further nuance to the poor performance of and high losses within units comprised of mobilized recruits

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Ukrenergo: Emergency blackouts introduced (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrenergo-emergency-blackouts-introduced-as-power-consumption-rises) as power consumption rises.

⚡️Deposit Guarantee Fund files (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/deposit-guarantee-fund-files-lawsuit-against-ukrainian-billionaire-kostiantyn-zhevago-for-1-2-billion) $1.2 billion lawsuit against billionaire Zhevago.
Ukraine’s Deposit Guarantee Fund said on Jan. 4 that it had filed a Hr 46 billion ($1.2 billion) lawsuit against Kostiantyn Zhevago, the former owner of Finance & Credit Bank, seeking compensation for losses sustained by the bank and its creditors. [he's a very shady Ukrainian oligarch]

⚡️Intelligence chief: Ukraine planning (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-chief-ukraine-planning-major-counter-offensive-in-spring) major counter-offensive in spring.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, said in an interview with ABC News that Ukraine is planning a major offensive in spring.
He expects the fighting to be the “hottest” in March.

⚡️Court convicts (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/court-convicts-russian-spies-who-collected-data-on-himars-energy-facilities) Russian spies who collected data on HIMARS, energy facilities.
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced on Jan. 4 that four Russian agents who collected data on HIMARS (High-Mobility Rocket Artillery Systems) and energy facilities in Donetsk Oblast had been convicted by a court. [I do wonder if actually some HIMARS have been destroyed]

⚡️Zelensky: France vowed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/france-vows-to-send-light-tanks-armored-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine) to send light tanks, armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
This is the first time that a Western country has agreed to give tanks to Ukraine — a supply that Kyiv has been asking for for months.

⚡️General Staff: 80 Russian soldiers killed, injured by Ukrainian strike (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-80-russian-soldiers-killed-injured-by-ukrainian-strike-on-russian-occupied-tokmak) on Russian-occupied Tokmak.

⚡️Romanian president asks Zelensky to revise (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/romanian-president-asks-zelensky-to-revise-bill-necessary-for-eu-accession) bill necessary for EU accession.
Romania has argued that the ethnic minorities bill fails to sufficiently ensure the use of Romanian as a language of education in Ukraine.

⚡️Intelligence: Partisans stop (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-partisans-stop-movement-of-military-convoys-on-russian-railroad) movement of military convoys on Russian railroad.
Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate reported that partisans had stopped the movement of civilian trains and military convoys on the Trans-Siberian Railway in Russia’s Krasnoyarsk region overnight on Jan. 4.

⚡️Official: U.S. to announce (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-u-s-to-announce-new-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-soon) new military aid package for Ukraine ‘soon.’
According to U.S. National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby, the new help could include additional HIMARS.

⚡️Reuters: Biden confirms (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-biden-confirms-us-considers-sending-bradley-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine) US considers sending Bradley fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

⚡️Norway donates 10,000 artillery shells to Ukraine.
The Norwegian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Jan. 4 that donated artillery shells can be used in the M109 howitzers that Norway has donated in the past.

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine hits (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-hits-multiple-russian-personnel-concentration-areas-on-jan-4) multiple Russian personnel concentration areas on Jan. 4.

⚡️CNN: Parts made by 13 US companies found (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/cnn-parts-made-by-13-us-companies-found-in-iranian-drone-downed-in-ukraine) in Iranian drone downed in Ukraine.
Ukrainian intelligence has found 40 components produced by 13 U.S. companies in one of Russia's Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones downed in Ukraine in the fall, CNN reported, citing a Ukrainian intelligence assessment.
The remaining 12 drone parts were made by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.

⚡️Ministry: Ukraine’s GDP fell (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ministry-ukraines-gdp-fell-by-30-4-in-2022) by 30.4% in 2022.
“This is objectively the worst result since independence (in 1991) but better than most experts predicted at the beginning of (Russia’s) full-scale invasion, when estimates ranged from 40-50% and more,” the ministry said.

⚡️Erdogan urges (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/erdogan-urges-putin-for-unilateral-ceasefire-vision-for-a-fair-solution-in-ukraine-war) Putin to implement unilateral ceasefire, 'vision for a fair solution' in Ukraine war.
"President Erdogan said calls for peace and negotiations should be supported by a unilateral ceasefire and a vision for a fair solution," the conversation readout said.

⚡️Ukraine finalizes transfer (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-finalizes-transfer-of-parts-of-kyiv-pechersk-lavra-to-state-ownership) of parts of Kyiv Pechersk Lavra to state ownership.
The Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate has faced backlash in recent months due to its ties to Russia and the discovery of Russian passports, anti-Ukrainian propaganda, and stolen icons during nationwide raids on its religious sites. Searches have also taken place at the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra.

(short roundup today, sorry)

high personnel losses, 1 plane and 1 helicopter and a bit mroe hardware lost.

Zelensky: France vowed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/france-vows-to-send-light-tanks-armored-fighting-vehicles-to-ukraine) to send light tanks, armored fighting vehicles to Ukraine.
This is the first time that a Western country has agreed to give tanks to Ukraine — a supply that Kyiv has been asking for for months.

Pendant alert - some will say they aren't technically tanks 🤐..... they're certainly not a Main Battle Tanks (MBT) such as Leopard.

On an armour/protection basis they are not something you'd want to be in going head to head with one of the more modern Russian tanks but it's good piece of kit with significant fire power and I'm sure they''ll be put to good use:

AMX-10C - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMX-10_RC

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut amid continued indicators that the broader offensive may be culminating.

For those unfamiliar with the term, culmination is a bit of military jargon for a state when a force has lost the ability to conduct offensive operations. This might be due to many factors, like casualties, lack of ammunition or fuel, etc. It's also a state in which the force is highly vulnerable to attack. You never want to be culminating.

Thanks for explaining. I was under the (wrong) impression that culminating meant reaching peak offensive. Hopefully it is downhill for Russia in Bakhmut soon.

Putin orders a Christmas ceasefire. I hope the Ukrainians tell him to shove it up his arse.

www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-will-cease-fire-ukraine-orthodox-christmas-kremlin-2023-01-05/

Obviously it will be deemed Ukraines fault if they dont recognise it.Pity 25th and 26th December didnt have a ceasefire