Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

The new coalition is threatening to stop the law of return being applied to people like your friend. The original argument (apparently) was that if Hitler would kill them (and Hitler's criteria for a Jew was one Jewish grandparent) then Israel will take you. The new coalition partners do not like it, and one of the things they are gunning for is this law of return, to get rid of the grandchild clause. Russians are by far the biggest beneficiary of the grandchild clause - and by and large it does bring in more secular voters, which is part of the reason the coalition doesn't like it.

Well the parties on which Netanyahu depends, not his own Likud constituency.

If the grandchild clause is changed, it would no doubt significantly affect the numbers of Ukranians who could flee to Israel (I can't see it being retrospective, so those already there would be safe). Last I heard Netanyahu was trying to reassure American Jews it was not changing, but he will flip flop in a moment if this coalition puts him under real pressure. Officially, at least at the moment, it is only the grandchild clause they are aiming at, so a child of a Jew would still be eligible, even though under halacha (Jewish religious law), someone is only Jewish if their mother is Jewish (or has converted), and it is irrelevant whether or not their father is. Presumably the ultimate aim would be to restrict it only to Jews under this definition

@MMBaranova Although I have just reread your message and you said your friend was eligible because her maternal grandmother was. That even this coalition won't change, as because her grandmother was, her mother was according to halacha, and that means she is, but it has to go completely down the maternal line.

A quick thanks to @notimagain and @MissConductUS for putting me right on the drone strikes. It's still enraging stuff with such an asymmetrical war.
Not a problem @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime - I would rather be challenged and have a productive conversation! I hope you had a good evening and a great start to the New Year.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Is there any chance the election was influenced by Russia, as seems likely with Trump and with Brexit?

You know, you have got me thinking. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but 14 seats is a lot more than expected for the three parties (even I had in my mind six seats, like last time, I had obviously blocked out they got so many). You are making me wonder. I suppose it is possible that people were improperly influenced to vote for them, I can see the value to Russia in the havoc this brings. From this distance though I certainly have no evidence of it.

There's an unconfirmed report of an attack on Sevastopol, Crimea where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based.

twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1609988197672521729?s=19

If confirmed this is significant due to the long range involved and the significance of the target.

mobile.twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1610008539468103680 oops they've done it again

In the comments it says ammo +troops

Sigh, Mumsnet lost m'post ... in brief, thank you for a very interesting (and dispiriting) summary about the situation in Israel.

It's possible to see a mangy Russian bear under every rug, but regarding the US and the UK Russian manipulation seems very likely. One of Trump's campaign staff has just been convicted of taking Russian bribes (I forget the details but that was the gist) and as for the UK ...

"The Russia Report" published by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament in July 2020 did not specifically address the Brexit campaign, but it concluded that Russian interference in UK politics is commonplace.[4][5] It also found substantial evidence that there had been interference in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.[6][5]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_interference_in_the_2016_Brexit_referendum

At least now people will be more aware of it.

Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted all drones from two consecutive nights of Russian drone strike attacks against Ukraine on December 31 ­– January 2.

Russia’s air and missile campaign against Ukraine is likely not generating the Kremlin’s desired information effects among Russia’s nationalists.

A devastating Ukrainian HIMARS strike on a Russian base in Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on December 31 generated significant criticism of Russian military leadership in the Russian information space.

The Russian MoD is likely attempting to deflect the blame for its poor operational security (OPSEC) onto Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) officials and mobilized personnel.

Russian sources responded lukewarmly to Russian President Vladmir Putin’s staged New Year’s address, while Russian milbloggers lauded Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s appearances on the frontlines over the New Year’s holidays.

Russian forces continued to carry out unsuccessful attempts to improve their tactical positions northwest of Svatove after reportedly conducting a tactical pause.

The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported that Russian forces are continuing to deploy personnel on the Kharkiv-Siversk frontline.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are redeploying along the eastern axis while struggling to maintain their pace of artillery strikes.

Russian forces attempted limited offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and continued efforts to reinforce defensive structures.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to extend financial promises made to Russian soldiers as Ukrainian officials continue to warn of an impending wave of Russian mobilization.

[posting in chunks as Mumsnet seems to be a bit recalcitrant today, loosing posts]

test

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Ukrainian military says it killed 400 Russian soldiers

(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-military-says-it-killed-400-russian-troops-in-occupied-makiivka)in occupied Makiivka.

A Russian military base in occupied Makiivka, Donetsk Oblast, was hit on New Year’s night, killing 400 soldiers and injuring at least 300, the Strategic Communications Department of Ukraine's military wrote on Telegram.

The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Ukraine's strike.
[there are presumably many more wounded]

⚡️Expert: 50-70 people die (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/expert-50-70-people-die-from-covid-19-in-ukraine-weekly) from COVID-19 in Ukraine weekly.
90% of these people are over 60 years old. He called the current situation with coronavirus in Ukraine “threatening.”
[presumably it's also hitting the front lines, both Ukr and Russians]

⚡️ Police: 25 torture chambers discovered (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/police-25-torture-chambers-discovered-in-liberated-areas-of-kharkiv-oblast) in liberated areas of Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️Ukroboronprom executives charged (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukroboronprom-executives-charged-for-supplying-low-quality-equipment-to-army) for supplying low-quality equipment to army.

Ukraine’s Economic Security Bureau reported on Jan. 2 that it had charged six executives of Ukroboronprom, the country’s main defense company, with embezzlement and abuse of power.

⚡️Ukraine-EU summit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-eu-summit-to-take-place-in-kyiv-on-feb-3) to take place in Kyiv on Feb. 3.

The Ukrainian President's Office reported on Jan. 2 that the next Ukraine-EU summit would be held on Feb. 3 in Kyiv.

The statement followed President Volodymyr Zelensky's first diplomatic phone call in 2023 with European Commission Head Ursula von der Leyen.

⚡️Zelensky: Russia plans (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-russia-plans-long-term-drone-attack-against-ukraine) long-term drone attack against Ukraine.

⚡️Minister: Russia's war has caused (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/minister-russias-war-has-caused-damage-worth-35-billion-to-environment) damage worth $35 billion to environment.

Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said on Jan. 2 that Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine had caused damage worth $35.3 billion to the country's environment.

The minister added that millions of hectares of nature preserves are under threat.

⚡️German reporter injured (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-reporter-injured-while-covering-the-war-in-ukraine) while covering war in Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Ukrainian troops liberate (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/media-ukrainian-troops-liberate-island-near-dnipro-rivers-delta) island near Dnipro River's delta.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces have liberated Velyky Potyomkinsky Island near the Dnipro River's delta in Kherson Oblast, online newspaper Ukrainska Pravda reported on Jan. 2, citing sources in the Ukrainian military.

⚡️Explosions reported in occupied Sevastopol (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/explosions-reported-in-occupied-sevastopol).

Occupation authorities reported that air defense had been activated in the city of Sevastopol, Crimea late on Jan. 2. Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Moscow-installed administrator of the Black Sea port, reported in his Telegram channel that two drones were shot down over the sea.

⚡️Chief commander: Ukraine has liberated (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/chief-commander-ukraine-has-liberated-40-of-territories-occupied-by-russia-since-feb-24) 40% of territories occupied by Russia since Feb. 24.

Leaving it there, several problems posting today.

from twitter:

ꑭ Natalïa ꑭ
@NatalieSmal
·
56m
The AFU have fire control over the highway between #Kreminna and #Svatove, the AFU physically enter it - Haidai

According to him, the occupiers can no longer drive through this road just like that. SOF groups are working to destroy enemy equipment on the R-66.

and

NOËL 🇪🇺 🇺🇦
@NOELreports
·
1h
Prigozhin tells why they can't take Bakhmut. "We storm every house for several days or even weeks, and there are 500+ of them. We don't have the equipment and even hundreds of shells won't make us move faster."

Agreed, and I have heard that both about the UK and the US. Not (at least so far) heard that about Israel, although a fair bit of the evidence against Netanyahu in the corruption trial was about manipulation of public opinion in terms of what people were exposed to and told of the sort that is described in your link as sourced from Russia. I haven't been following the trial that closely, but so far I haven't heard any allegations that there was Russian interference, and the assumption seemed to be that Netanyahu is capable of his own manipulations. He certainly says different things to different audiences (and will tell people what they want to hear and then go back on any commitment that stands in his way of power) and I believe that different social messages were sent to different groups. What went on with the three parties and their advertising I don't know, although a lot of people were just frustrated and Ben Gvir in particular is that scary combination of an idealogue and a populist (last time Netanyahu was willing to work with Ra'am, ie an Arab party, but Ben Gvir wasn't, so Netanyahu was scuppered as he didn't have the numbers to leave either out, and Bennett and Lapid then managed to pull together an extraordinary eight party coalition spanning left and right and including Ra'am, that managed to govern for a year before it fell apart - mostly due to pressure from the right and Netanyahu). Likely in Russia's interest to interfere, but could they actually do more than was already being done? Dunno.

>Russians are by far the biggest beneficiary of the grandchild clause - and by and large it does bring in more secular voters, which is part of the reason the coalition doesn't like it.

Yes, the generally very secular Russian speakers and the religious parties seem to have little in common beyond a commitment to Israel.

>Prigozhin tells why they can't take Bakhmut. "We storm every house for several days or even weeks, and there are 500+ of them. We don't have the equipment and even hundreds of shells won't make us move faster."

He seemed to be very candid. I'm never sure what to make of Wagner (and I dip in and out of Wagner feeds every now and then). Image posted is from feed today from a video where Prigozhin addressed the wounded.

I think there are two types of Wagnerites (with a zone in-between). The older hands are men who are mercenaries with military training. They like the pay and being outside of regular military structures. There has been an espirit de corps and they have often been deployed overseas where they do not feel as great attachment to any side as they might when fighting in Ukraine. They have fought at reduced risk and have been well armed for the situations they have faced in say Syria or Africa. The newer hands are the dregs including those released from prison. They don't want to die either, but might be those sent into riskier situations more often.

Prigozhin cites lack of equipment. How well can this be sourced, especially when regular forces make demands on supplies?

Scanning back, none of the Wagner troops in images posted over the past week look anything other than white european. They are all male. Most look serious and stoical. Only one was smiling.

Largest Wagner associated feed on VK:

vk.com/spbwagnerspb

Wagner Telegram feed:

t.me/wagnernew

They often have identical posts.

There are also a number of Wagner fan groups.

Image: from Twitter. An exception to my white european comment.

Anybody listen to the Ukraine the Latest podcast yesterday? Just wondering what you thought about Francis Dearnley's predictions particularly re his thinking on Crimea?

He also lays out pathways to a "world war scenario" without really developing it further, drawing parallels with the 1900s. I've always been confused, from the beginning, about what conventional world war looks like in a nuclear age. Aren't nuclear weapons meant to veto this very thing because of the possibility of escalation to strategic nw? I get that the escalation ladder is never 'chosen' but rather unintended but I still struggle to work out how the stays get bypassed in a nuclear age. Hope that makes sense, it no doubt reveals my total ignorance!

I listened to it @MagicFox and to be honest didn’t think it was his clearest analysis. He’s generally quite good but it felt a bit muddled. I think the point he was making is that Crimea is likely a genuine red line for Putin/Russia, and could illicit a different response to his previous ‘red lines’.

His point about World War was around if China backed Russia in the event of a nuclear attack on Ukraine and its calculations regarding Taiwan. The point being that they could potentially open a front in Taiwan with the hope that both that and Ukraine would remain localised proxy wars but considering the risks associated with unintended escalation.

Thanks Jelly, you've summarised it well. I get what he's saying about worst case scenarios but they weren't fully thought through - not in a way that made me understand it anyway!

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a series of instructions for Russian agencies and high-level officials likely aimed at appeasing widespread criticisms of the provisioning and payment of benefits to Russian military personnel and propagandizing the war.

Putin confirmed that Russia is using a variety of social schemes to justify the transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Systemic failures in Russia’s force generation efforts continue to plague Russian personnel capabilities to the detriment of Russian operational capacity in Ukraine.

Degraded Russian military personnel capabilities will likely further exacerbate Russian milblogger criticism of Russian force generation efforts and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin attempted to justify the Wagner Group’s lack of progress in Bakhmut, partially supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian forces in Bakhmut are culminating.

Russian forces continued limited counterattacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line as Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military logistics in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and may be reinforcing their grouping in western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly established positions on the Velikiy Potemkinsky Island in the Dnipro River delta as of January 2.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that promises additional benefits to Russian forces personnel and Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) who defend the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Prigozhin is likely setting information conditions to blame Wagner Group's failure to take Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense or the Russian industrial base. [so he's holding to the grand Russian trait of blaming anyone but themselves]

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine has shot down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-ukraine-has-shot-down-nearly-500-russian-drones-since-september) nearly 500 drones launched by Russia since September.

⚡️ Authorities report finding another Russian torture chamber (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/authorities-report-finding-another-russian-torture-chamber-in-southern-ukraine) in southern Ukraine.
In it, Russians had allegedly suffocated the victims with plastic bags, beat them, and used electroshocks, trying to elicit details about local members of the resistance movement.

⚡️ Ukraine intelligence: Russia may be preparing (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-intelligence-russia-may-be-preparing-new-offensive-from-north-east) new offensive from north, east.
"Such actions of the enemy are expected, and our troops are ready for it," said a representative of Ukraine's military intelligence.

⚡️ Top lawyer wanted (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nabu-puts-top-lawyer-on-wanted-list-accused-of-fraud-with-state-seized-property) on suspicion of organizing fraudulent scheme to sell property seized by state.
Investigators obtained evidence that he had organized sales of seized property managed by the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA) to handpicked companies at low prices. [there seems to be a theme recently of rooting out corruption]

⚡️ Ukrainian customs officials allegedly helped Black Sea grain exporters evade $186 million in taxes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/odesa-customs-service-officials-suspected-of-embezzling-186-million-from-grain-exports) in 2022.
Ukrainian law enforcement is investigating the scheme that allegedly allowed companies to conceal their profits as they were exporting Ukrainian grain amid war.

⚡️ Ukrainian government suspends (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-suspends-auctions-on-transparent-procurement-platform-pro-zorro-citing-blackouts) transparent public procurement auctions, citing blackouts.
The government said that participants don't have equal access to the auctions because of unpredictable power outages caused by Russia's attacks.

⚡️Shmyhal: Ukraine must transition (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/shmyhal-ukraine-must-transition-to-strong-contract-army-after-end-of-russias-war) to "strong contract army" after end of Russia’s war.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal also emphasized the importance of providing every Ukrainian with the skills and knowledge necessary to defend the country in the event of an attack.

Zaluzhnyi, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Milley discuss (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zaluzhnyi-milley-discuss-ukraines-military-needs-in-first-phone-call-in-2023) Ukraine’s military needs in first phone call of 2023.

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv expects Russia to lose up to 70,000 troops in the next 4-5 months (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-kyiv-expects-russia-to-lose-up-to-70-000-troops-in-the-next-4-5-months)
The Russians “understand that they are going to lose” on the battlefield, but they are not planning to end the war, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andrii Cherniak said. [if this is true, why are they continuing? Inability to lose face? Some other gain that they hope to make?]

⚡️Russia says 89 troops (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-says-89-troops-killed-in-ukrainian-attack-on-makiivka) killed in Ukrainian attack on Makiivka. The regiment's deputy commander, Lieutenant Colonel Bachurin, was among the killed.

⚡️ Explosions reported (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/explosions-reported-in-black-sea-port-of-sevastopol) in Black Sea port of Sevastopol.

⚡️ Intelligence: Russia deploys (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/intelligence-russia-deploys-new-military-units-to-northern-part-of-crimea) new military units to northern part of Crimea.

Russia is deploying new military units to the northern part of occupied Crimea, reported Andrii Cherniak, a representative of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate.

Live: Ukraine Telegram highlights

Today, about half a million Ukrainian schoolchildren study abroad, the Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine Serhiy Shkarlet said.

Ukrainian satellite PolyITAN-HP-30, created to the 30th anniversary of Independence of Ukraine, was launched into Earth orbit in the USA

🇨🇭The United States and other Western countries are putting pressure on Switzerland over frozen Russian assets that could be used to rebuild Ukraine after the Russian invasion.

🪖Ukraine has created a network of troop management that the US has been working on for decades - WSJ.
Ukraine's success in creating a virtual command and control system on the fly offers valuable lessons for the West.

🇩🇪🇵🇱Berlin has officially rejected Warsaw's demand to pay 1.3 trillion euros in reparations for the damage caused to Poland by the Nazi occupation during World War II, the Polish Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday, January 3.

More than 60,000 dead pigs: in the Kharkiv region, an agricultural farm is preparing lawsuits against the Russians.

Ukrainian intelligence records intensification of resistance movement in Russia.
On the night of January 4, unknown guerrillas stopped the movement of trains and military echelons on a section of the Trans-Siberian Railway near Krasnoyarsk.
In four days this year, this is the sixth case of blocking the railway, which leads to disruptions in the schedules of military echelons. In 2022, there were about 40 such cases, railway transformers and locomotives were also destroyed. The General Directorate of Intelligence noted that a significant intensification of rail guerrillas in Russia occurred after the announcement of partial mobilization.

The main thing from the new interview of the DIU representative Vadym Skibitskyi.
▪️Russians will look for new approaches to shelling the territory of Ukraine. If they do not have enough missiles for a mass raid, they will combine high-precision missiles, X-22, S-300, and kamikaze drones.
▪️ Russians launch a large number of drones to break through our air defense. If you launch a small number - 5-10 - there will be no effect.
▪️ According to regulations, the strategic missile reserve of the Russian Federation should be 30% of the total stock of missiles. They have already passed this reserve from all types of missiles: from Iskanders, from Kalibr, from X-101, from X-555.
▪️ According to our estimates, the Russians can now produce about 30 units of X-101 per month. If we talk about Kalibr, we count 15-20 units per month.
▪️To date, they have used approximately 660 Shahed drones. The contract provides for 1750.

UNITED24 Media

Ukraine became the main importer of German weapons in 2022
Last year, the German government approved arms exports worth about 8.35 billion euros, and a quarter of this amount – almost 2.25 billion euros – went to Ukraine, writes Bild.

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/03/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Russia is preparing a prolonged air campaign using Iranian-made drones, President Volodymyr Zelensky said, adding that more than 80 of the drones have been shot down in Ukraine since the start of the new year.

• Pro-Russian forces have probably increased the pace of infantry assaults against Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut, the eastern Ukrainian city at the center of the heaviest fighting in recent weeks, the British Defense Ministry said Tuesday.
• In 2022, more than 20,000 Ukrainian troops participated in training that took place in partner countries, according to figures released by Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the most senior uniformed official in the Ukrainian military.
• Zelensky’s office said he had urged the E.U. to provide 3 billion euros, or $3.2 billion, to Ukraine this month.

Europe prepares to take in more Ukrainians, with less support, in 2023
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/03/ukraine-refugees-eastern-europe-2023/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)...Now for volunteer hosts .. the financial burden of helping Ukrainian refugees has grown, and the broader future of assistance is increasingly unclear.
In Poland and across Europe, energy and housing costs have soared, while some governments are poised to reduce funding as the war grinds forward. It has left humanitarian groups and volunteers grappling with the difficult question of how to sustain aid to Ukrainian refugees in the year ahead, with new hardships as winter sets in again.

Here is the latest from Ukraine:
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/03/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Russia’s Defense Ministry said 63 service members were killed in the strike in Donetsk shortly after midnight on New Year’s Day.

• Moscow’s acknowledgment of the attack has “generated criticism towards the Russian military command,” the Institute for the Study of War think tank reported.
• Satellite images shared by Planet, a company that has provided hundreds of images of Russian military activities in Ukraine, appear to show the building that was targeted in the Makiivka strike intact on Dec. 20, 2022, and destroyed as of Tuesday.
• The relatively warm and sunny winter weather in Ukraine has led to reduced daytime demand on the country’s beleaguered electricity grid, the national energy company said Tuesday.
• Ukraine’s General Prosecutor’s Office said at least 452 children have been killed and 876 injured during the war.

• On Wednesday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will hold a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin told Turkish news agency NTV. Afterward, Erdogan will speak with President Zelensky, Kalin said.
• The U.S. has had direct conversations with Russian officials about Paul Whelan, State Department spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday. He was responding to a question about efforts to free Whelan since the release of WNBA player Brittney Griner.

There have been reports that Ukr as well as Ru losses have been high around Bakhmut.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

The main thing from the new interview of the DIU representative Vadym Skibitskyi....
Russians launch a large number of drones to break through our air defense. If you launch a small number - 5-10 - there will be no effect.

FWIW it's been assumed by many that that's what is going on since it is simply an extension of the sort of tactics used by bomber forces in WW2 and it's known would have been used by some of the strategic manned bomber forces at the height of the Cold War.

Send dozens plus of assets into the air defence system over narrow front and on a compact time scale.

Firstly you might overload the defences with multiple targets, and secondly even if you don't completely overload the detection capabilities whilst the first few assets (drones/missiles/aircraft) get clobbered by SAMs the missile batteries within range of the stream rapidly "fire out".

That means that until a reload can be organised the remainder of the stream can fly through the gap that's left unprotected relatively unhindered.