ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-31
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual New Year’s Eve address continued to illustrate that Putin is uncertain of his ability to shape the Russian information space and remains focused on justifying the war in Ukraine and its cost to his domestic audience.
Putin delivered his address from the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) as part of his ongoing efforts to portray himself as an effective wartime leader.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu demonized Ukraine and announced that Russian victory is inevitable in his New Year’s Eve speech.
Russian forces are likely depleting their stocks of artillery ammunition and will struggle to support their current pace of operations in Ukraine as a result.
Russian forces launched another round of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure but at a reduced intensity compared to previously massive waves of strikes.
Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukraine and Russia exchanged prisoners but differed in their reporting on the number of exchanged personnel.
Russian forces continued limited counterattacks to regain lost positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 31.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City on December 31.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost connection to its last functioning backup power line on the evening of December 29.
Russian forces continue operations in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and along the southern axis.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated on December 31 that he knew “for a fact” that the Kremlin plans to close its borders for men, declare martial law, and begin another wave of mobilization in “one week or so.”
Russian occupation authorities continue to intensify law enforcement crackdowns in occupied territories in response to Ukrainian partisan activities.
Russian occupation officials continue to create unbearable living conditions for residents of occupied territories.
Russian forces are likely depleting their stocks of artillery ammunition and will struggle to support their current pace of operations in certain sectors of the frontline in Ukraine as a result. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Chief Kyrylo Budanov reported on December 31 that Russian forces in Ukraine are experiencing significant issues with artillery ammunition that will become more pronounced by March of 2023.[8] Budanov stated that Russian forces had previously used 60,000 artillery shells per day (as of some unspecified date) and now only use 19,000 to 20,000 shells.[9] Budanov stated that Russian forces have also removed all remaining artillery ammunition from Belarusian military warehouses to support their operations in Ukraine.
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Kyiv Indep Telegram
⚡️⚡️ 140 Ukrainian prisoners of war freed from Russian captivity (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/140-ukrainian-prisoners-of-war-freed-from-russian-captivity).
Wounded soldiers who defended Mariupol, as well as Zmiiny (Snake) Island, are among those who returned home in the Dec. 31 prisoner exchange. [there are discussions about the exact number, but certainly an exchange took place]
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported on Dec. 31 that the Air Force had shot down 12 of more than 20 cruise missiles fired by Russia. They were launched from the Caspian Sea and ground-based launchers, he added.
⚡️General Staff: Several Russian missiles fall in Russia
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-several-russian-missiles-fall-in-russia-amid-new-years-eve-strike)amid New Year’s Eve strike.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russia had launched about 20 missiles at Ukraine on Dec. 31, but an unspecified number of them fell in Russia instead of reaching their targets.
Air defense shot down 12 missiles, Ukraine’s military reported. [There were rumours of explosions inside Russia but mostly that seems to have been wishful thinking. It's very odd if Russia-launched missiles came down -inside- Russia though]
⚡️Russian strike leaves 1,750 homes without power (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-strike-leaves-1-750-homes-without-power-in-zaporizhzhia-following-new-years-eve-attack) in Zaporizhzhia following New Year's Eve attack.
⚡️Borell: EU to continue standing by Ukraine in 2023 (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/borell-eu-to-continue-standing-by-ukraine-in-2023).
Live: Ukraine Telegram
We have prepared the latest overview of the situation at the frontline. Please read it if you haven't had time.
🔗Link: telegra.ph/Ukraine-is-preparing-to-liberate-Kreminna-Russian-defense-in-the-north-of-Luhansk-region-may-collapse-We-analyze-the-situation-a-12-30
Putin suffers from chronic pain and was being treated for cancer at the time of the invasion Various media outlets have previously reported that Putin suffers from the effects of a fall from a horse in the 2000s. Later, it was reported that he had also suffered injuries during judo and hockey over the past few years. - Danish intelligence [no further quotes or info though]
From today, Croatia officially became a member of the Eurozone and joined the Schengen area. The euro becomes the official currency in the country, and there is no need to pass control to cross the land border.
UNITED 24 Media Telegram
People from 110 countries are helping Ukraine through UNITED24 (t.me/U24_gov_ua).
In Germany, the production of wheeled self-propelled guns RCH-155 for Ukraine has begun, — said Nicholas Drummond, adviser to the KMW manufacturing company
RCH-155 is a development of Kraus-Maffei Wegmann. Like the Panzerhaubitze 2000, the gun mount has a high level of automation of all systems, and the machine's turret is uninhabited.
Drummond did not say when the Armed Forces will be able to get new self-propelled guns into service.[ It does indicate however that Germany does believe that Ukraine will win]
"2022 was a difficult year. We faced many challenges but did not give up. We learned who real friends are — those who did not leave us to face the enemy alone. Likewise, we are infinitely grateful to all foreign partners who helped us with weapons and humanitarian aid. They supported us in word and deed. We believe next year will be a year of victory, and we will celebrate it together.
Thank you, and may 2023 be the best one yet!"
No UK Int update. Very high Russian losses again plus more hardware