Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

That's what's being said, closed borders are coming. I guess it depends onn how much Putin's been able to tighten his grip and reinforce the domestic-control agencies. But as so many have pointed out, Russians seem unable to really rebel - so many decades, even hundreds of years, of killing the people who really revolt. Not that the UK couldn't do with some serious rebelling where the NHS is concerned :/

I don't think Putin is in danger from ordinary Russians rebelling. I think he's in danger of a coup as the Russian military and security services see their own power undermined by a weakened Russia.

I was listening to Ukraine the latest and they were talking about the fall of the Soviet Union and just how quickly it happened once it started. The sense was that the collapse of Russia could be equally quick to materialise and with little prior warning. Very much the message was be careful what you wish for though.

I agree, I don’t think the collapse of Russia would be desirable for anyone. It would very quickly lead to a situation completely out of control. I am sure I remember reading that the risk of this happening was partly why Western weapons have sometimes trickled into Ukraine rather than flooded.

Reminds me of this quote:

“How did you go bankrupt?”
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”
― Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises.

Lawrence Freedman previously used it in relation to Russia's defeat at Kharkiv in September but could equally apply here - we shall see:

samf.substack.com/p/gradually-then-suddenly

If Russia collapses, I don't think we can do anything to influence it's speed. I doubt there will be a rebellion or a split of the Federation. A coup or Putin's sudden death is more likely.

As it stands, the trickle of weapons has done nothing except drag out the war and waste more lives.

It has allowed the west to take stock and see what the likelihood is of the early fears of nuclear war. It allowed Putin time to realise that the West would -not- roll over this time, and to adjust his mind to that notion. Should mass nuclear war happen, the deaths would be untold greater. The time that Ukraine bought, with all the heartbreaking loss of life, may have increased the long term prospects of this war being brought to an end without mass nuclear weopons.

That time was important but I think it's gone now. Ukraine is starting to develop its own long-range non-nuclear missiles and I think the US should give Ukraine the ATACMs and Europe should give the Leopards.

So it is better to allow cowardly bullies to have their own way at the expense of somebody else than it is to do anything to stop them.

Would Ukraine have been the last country Putin decided was part of Russia so he was entitled to take it by force? I suspect that if invading and subjugating Ukraine had been as easy as he assumed it would be to begin with, he'd have gone on to the next.

Happy new year to you too and everyone else here. I'm still around but I'm now studying full time so don't have much spare time. Plus I've had sodding covid since October and I'm absolutely bloody knackered from coughing.

Nice to hear from you @BringBackCoffeeCreams , sorry to hear about the Covid cough, it's a draining git isn't it. I hope your studying is going well.

You have a point but with regard to the nuclear stuff it's hard to read TBH.

Personally - and I'm not an SME on this 🤔..I don't think many (well maybe outside of the UKs Daily Mail readership) ever really thought for very long that Putin was going to start chucking around nuclear weapons at either a tactical or strategic level as long as the Rodinia remained untouched by NATO controlled ordnance...

From the nuke side the bigger global concern right now might be the possible breakdown of the Russian centralised command and control of nuclear assets...i.e. Wagner PMC or similar, but with nukes

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

Good to hear you checking in, get well soon and good luck with the studies.

BTW we've seem to have a bit of attrition over the months - I know RTB has been around on other threads but the likes of ? @Targuseasting haven't been around for a while.

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime, you misunderstand me. I think Ukraine should have had more equipment and faster. As it stands, we are donating money to fixing their their energy infrastructure because they don't have the coverage they need to stop the drones and missile attacks. If they could stop more attacks, that money could be used elsewhere to support their citizens. It's like bailing water out if a boat without plugging the leaks first.

@TheABC

As it stands, we are donating money to fixing their their energy infrastructure because they don't have the coverage they need to stop the drones and missile attacks. If they could stop more attacks, that money could be used elsewhere to support their citizens. It's like bailing water out if a boat without plugging the leaks first.

I think the reality here is (and I'll stick my my hands up as an SME, albit my knowledge is dated) it is really bloody hard to completely stop the attacks on infrastructure.

We're seeing claims of north of 80% of inbound targets being killed (sometimes 100%). That is really impressive and I think most NATO Air Defence Commanders might give their right testicle 🤔if they could consistently achieve that sort of kill rate in a conflict zone....

Extra kit/more coverage may well up the kill rate (oh dear, I'm sounding like somebody who worked for RAND in the Vietnam era) even more but all air defence systems are leaky, even if you add stuff like Patriot, so money is till going to be needed to fix the Ukraine energy infrastructure TFN.

I am not an SME on air defense, but I would point out that the Russians haven't been very effective in this area either. They don't seem to have much if any, success intercepting ballistic targets like HIMARS rounds or the Soviet-era jet-powered drones that the Ukrainians are using to attack targets within Russia like Engles airbase.

What they do have a knack for is shooting down their own aircraft.

Downed Russian jets ‘almost all’ taken out by Kremlin's own air defence - Communication breakdown among Moscow's forces in Ukraine led to a number of 'friendly fire' incidents, claim bloggers

Russian jets shot from the sky were “almost all” downed by Moscow’s own air defence systems, pro-Kremlin military bloggers have claimed.

A failure by Moscow’s forces in Ukraine to interact with other branches of the military led to a number of “friendly fire” incidents that brought down Su-30M, Su-34 and Su-35S fighter aircraft, as well as Ka-52 helicopters.

It was said that the Russian air force’s main enemy had become its own air defence systems.

The claims were made by authoritative pro-Russian military bloggers via their channels on the Telegram messaging app.

Rybar, a widely read but unofficial Russian propaganda account, reported: “Insufficient levels of interaction with other branches and types of troops, along with an inoperative identification system, has more than once led to ‘friendly fire’ to the point that almost all Su-34, Su-35S and Su-30M aircraft lost since spring, as well as part of the Ka-52 helicopters, are ‘on account’ of Russian air defence.”

FighterBomber, another authoritative Russian channel, added: “I’m also not happy with the fact that our valiant air defence is the worst and most dangerous enemy for all of our aviation. The fact that almost all of our planes were shot down by it is completely nonsense.”

The claims could not be immediately verified.

However, Oryx, a website that visually tracks losses on both sides, has documented the loss of 63 Russian aircraft and 63 helicopters.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces, Moscow has lost 268 helicopters and 283 warplanes since the beginning of the war earlier this year.

Last week, Ukraine’s Air Force shared images of a Russian Ka-52 helicopter allegedly shot down by friendly fire.

Russian propagandists said that the aircraft was downed in early December by a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile system.

The images appeared to show the alligator attack helicopter, with a tail number 43, downed in a field in the Zaporizhzhia region.

“[Russian] air defence is like that,” said the Centre for Strategic Communications of the armed forces of Ukraine.

“In the meantime, we invite the entire [Russian] crew of anti-aircraft gunners [responsible for the incident] to a gala dinner in their honour.”

Ukraine’s armed forces have issued a number of statements since Feb 24 claiming that Russia had shot down its own aircraft in friendly fire incidents.

A recent report by academics at the Royal United Services Institute found that friendly fire has been one of the biggest problems undermining Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

Through a perceived lack of communication, Russian artillery was said to have targeted its own troops, while air defences engaged with friendly aircraft.

“Fratricide has been a widespread problem for the Russian forces during their invasion of Ukraine,” the report said.

It blamed the rigidity of Moscow’s top-down command structure for Russia’s repeated failings on the battlefield.

What they do have a knack for is shooting down their own aircraft.

Um, true, but at the risk of being unhelpful that's not exactly unique .. I know there's still, twenty years down the road, some bad feeling in some quarters in the RAF about the US Patriot shootdown of a RAF Tornado crew in ?2003 and there was shortly thereafter the loss of a USN F-18 to a "friendly" patriot battery. No blame from me but s**t happens in a hot conflict zone.

Air defence is a complicated game, can sometimes be very fast moving, sometimes hostiles get missed (previous post re Ukraine) and OTOH just sometimes despite all the tech friendlies get screwed over by their own side...

It's decades back but I still very vividly recall been "lit up" by a friendly fire control radar in an part of the world where there were still tensions and remember thinking.."😳....f* me, I hope they remember and stick to the rules of engagement"

Happy New Year all, I do hope this is the year of victory and return

And I hope that cough fucks off soon @BringBackCoffeeCreams

I think in terms of attrition on the thread I’m mindful that this whole thing is one big mind fuck and that people’s capacity both physically and mentally to give it thought waxes and wanes. I’m sure people will return and others will drift away as it goes on.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · Yesterday 22:56
Happy new year to you too and everyone else here. I'm still around but I'm now studying full time so don't have much spare time. Plus I've had sodding covid since October and I'm absolutely bloody knackered from coughing.

I hope you finally feel better soon.

To all
Happy new year.

To Ukraine
May this year see Russia leave Ukraine and the end to this evil invasion.

My apologies; I did indeed misunderstand. It was late in the evening for me, though that isn't a particularly good excuse!

I think there's a lot of great analysis of the military/weapon specifics at the moment that dominates the thread and more general posters probably don't have much to contribute to those discussions in terms of expertise so I think it's just natural fall off. Before I get shot down I'm not saying anything against that analysis because it's fab and much appreciated!

No ISW Update today, hope they're enjoying their New Year, they do a lot of good work

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️ DTEK: Russia's NYE attack damages (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/dtek-russias-nye-attack-damages-thermal-power-plant) thermal power plant.
During its mass attack against Ukraine on Dec. 31, Russia damaged a thermal power plant in Ukraine, Ukraine's biggest private energy company DTEK reported.

⚡️ UK stops importing (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-stops-importing-russian-lng-on-jan-1) Russian LNG on Jan. 1.
The U.K. stopped all imports of Russian liquified natural gas on Jan. 1, said the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said.

⚡️ General Staff: Russian army shells Kherson Oblast to force Ukrainians to flee (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russian-army-shells-kherson-oblast-to-force-ukrainians-to-flee) the region. [lets hope they really do run out of artilolery shells soon and can't get any more. Perhaps this was Surovikin's plan all along: Withdraw, bomb it to hell, retake it]

⚡️ Ukraine intelligence chief: Russia has missiles left (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-intelligence-chief-russia-has-missiles-left-for-2-massive-attacks) for 2 mass attacks.
Kyrylo Budanov also backed an earlier statement by Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov that starting Jan. 5, Russia will introduce a ban for Russian men under the age of 55 to leave the country, as it continues to mobilize men to replenish the army ranks amid battlefield losses.

⚡️ Ukraine retrieved (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-retrieved-almost-1-600-po-ws-from-russian-captivity-in-2022) almost 1,600 POWs from Russian captivity in 2022.
Among them were 1,464 service people and 132 civilians from Russian captivity. However, about 3,400 Ukrainian soldiers are still in Russian captivity.

⚡️Military intelligence: Russia modifies shelling tactics
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/military-intelligence-russia-modifies-shelling-tactics-against-ukraine)against Ukraine.
Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, said on Jan.1 that Russia began to change shelling tactics by combining attacks with Iranian-made combat drones and anti-defense S-300 surface-to-air missiles.
The Russian army is short of Kalibr and anti-aircraft missiles, he added.

⚡️Updated: 20 aerieal targets shot over Kyiv.
Kyiv City Military Administration reported that air defense had downed 20 aerial targets overnight on Jan. 2. The administration didn't specify how many of the downed targets were drones.

⚡️Ukraine's air defense downed (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ukraines-air-defense-downed-all-39-russian-drones-overnight-on-jan-2) all 39 Russian drones.
Russian forces launched a massive strike against Ukraine using Iranian-made Shahed-131/136 kamikaze drones overnight on Jan. 2. The air defense destroyed all 39 drones. Over the same reporting period, two Orlan-10 drones were downed as well as an X-59 guided missile. [there is some dispute of this]

Live:Ukraine

In Kherson region, a 13-year-old boy came under Russian fire twice - in the evening of December 31, he was returning home with his sister when the Russians attacked the village of Nadnipryanske. The boy was taken to the hospital in serious condition.
And in the first minutes of January 1, the occupants shelled Kherson Regional Children's Clinical Hospital, where the child was in intensive care. The windows in the boy's ward were smashed. Now he was evacuated to Mykolaiv.

The production of wheeled SAU Boxer RCH-155 for Ukraine has begun in Germany, - Nicholas Drummond, advisor to the manufacturer KMW.
The production of such installations is called revolutionary. The turret is installed from the Pzh2000, and the chassis - from the Boxer APC. Due to this design, the vehicle has high mobility and combat power.

In Brazil, a man was detained who tried to get to the inauguration of the new President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva with an explosive device and a knife.

NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov warns that Russia can become a "colony" of one of the neighboring countries, and this situation can be very dangerous.
When asked whether he meant China, the NSDC Secretary replied: "I mean the processes that are taking place. We need to pay attention to them very carefully."

🇯🇵Japanese Prime Minister to invite Ukrainian President to G7 Summit
In order for Volodymyr Zelensky to be able to take part in the summit online, the head of the Japanese government is making adjustments to the schedule and format of the event.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

As if from artillery: Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners on New Year's Eve barely managed to reload NASAMS air defense systems
"Our servicemen barely had time to reload NASAMS. It was as if they were firing from artillery. Perhaps no one has such experience in using this air defense system: during the battle, reload the complex and destroy air targets. This suggests that we simply do not have enough of them. We have missiles, but more air defense systems are needed."

Baykar completes testing of the new strike UAV AKINCI, which will soon appear in Ukraine
This is a Turkish unmanned strike aircraft system that hits targets with any Turkish and NATO-made ammunition. From ROKETSAN MAM-L/MAM-T high-precision small-sized laser-guided missiles to the ROKETSAN ÇAKIR cruise missile. Plus a set of air-to-ground and air-to-air guided munitions.

More than 20,000 Ukrainian military personnel have been trained abroad, said Oleksiy Gromov, deputy head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukrainian defenders train in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, the USA, and other countries.
“During 2022, the brigade headquarters, battalion-level units, company, artillery battery and air defense battery were trained. Specialists are being trained to use foreign weapons and military equipment," Gromov said in an interview with Ukrinform.
The professional training of "narrow" specialists continues — sappers, combat medics, advanced aviation and artillery shooters, divers, reconnaissance officers, non-commissioned officers.
Ukrainian gunners have also successfully completed a training course in Germany.

The first photos of the use of the 120-mm rifled mortar MO-120-RT in Ukraine. They can hit targets at a distance of up to 13 km with missiles.

The war will not end soon, and the West must be ready for long-term support for Ukraine
This was stated by NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg in an interview with the BBC.
“We must be prepared for a long journey, because, as you have noticed, Russia does not intend to give up its main goal of establishing control over Ukraine,” he said.

The war in Ukraine will last all of 2023, and rolling blackouts may begin in the EU, predicts (www.ft.com/content/9784cc74-1193-4e1b-bf61-8ecaf19f569e) the Financial Times
The main thing:
▪️The war in Ukraine will last the whole year. Neither side will agree to freeze the conflict. At the same time, Zelenskyy is waiting for the supply of weapons, and Putin is “trying to regroup”;
▪️Until April, there could be rolling blackouts in Europe if the weather is cold. It will be difficult to replenish underground gas storage facilities in the spring;
▪️Biden will again go to the US presidential election, and Trump will be charged;
▪️In 2023, China will not attack Taiwan, but it may happen later

We are now finding fragments of missiles made at the end of 2022. This means that they were produced and immediately provided to the troops for strikes, – Skibitsky

The publics of the so-called Russian military correspondents confirm the pinpoint strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the temporarily occupied Makiivka on the building of vocational school No. 19 on New Year's Eve from the HIMARS MLRS [Rumours are that between 200 - 600 mobilized were killed]

Czech Republic ends cooperation with Russia in the field of nuclear research, — Czech Radio

Russian special services in Germany became more active, — Deutsche Presse-Agentur
“The interest of Russian intelligence here in Germany has not only not disappeared, but is growing as new consequences of the war come,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Washington Post Telegram

Here is the latest from Ukraine:
(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/02/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)- Ukrainian forces shot down 45 drones on Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his first nightly address of the new year. He said “drones, missiles, anything else will not help” Russia win the war.

• Several waves of drones targeted infrastructure facilities in the Kyiv region on Sunday evening and into Monday, said Oleksiy Kuleba, the regional governor.

• At least four civilians were killed and dozens injured during attacks throughout Ukraine on New Year’s Eve, officials said.

• Sweden, which took the reins of the E.U. Council presidency on Sunday, has pledged to support Ukraine through its six-month term.

The personnel losses are mounting up so fast.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64142650

I’ve read since thread 1 and only posted once as I’m usually on catch up. Thanks to all the contributors, I can discuss knowledgeably when conversations arise which surprises many!

The link above is to a Ukrainian strike on Makiivka in Donetsk region with up to 400 dead and 300 wounded at two minutes into the New Year May be connected to the very high numbers yesterday which wasn’t explained by any reports at the time.

Another one here for appreciating the weapons analysis. Where else can anyone find a measured and rounded analysis from a collection of expertise, so thank you on behalf of lurkers even if we cannot contribute.

I am also very thankful to ReleaseTheDucks and Desdamona for the daily takeaways and broadcasts. They are the scaffold and wallpaper of my day.

Also the varied contributions from the historical and geopolitical angle. You sure read widely! All the lovely and sometimes sad perspectives from local posters from or with relatives in Ukraine, Russia and of course US, EU, Israel.

I guess the battlefield has been relatively static over winter and news on yet more waves of missile attacks on Kjiv and other cities on Christmas and New Years don't make the headlines depressingly.

Hoping this thread can culminate in 2023 in victory on Ukraine terms.