Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

The doubling down is really depressing

They're not seeing the light any time soon

Twitter especially is full of disgusting slurs and propaganda from official accounts

I always wanted to visit russia but that desire has left me now.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar - Today 14:44
Almost 14,000 Ukrainian children were taken by the invaders to the territory of the Russian Federation, 400 of them have already been adopted by Russian families, says human rights activist and lawyer Yekateryna Rashevska
Unfortunately, it is impossible to identify these children, because in most cases the personal data of young Ukrainians have been changed. [may those fuckers ROT IN HELL]

Yes, indeed. This is horrendous.

Absolutely disgusting

But not surprising. Like hell is this putins war. They're all complicit

Apologies,I'm sure it's been mentioned but how ln earth are the Russians coping with all the supposed sanctions? .

We are all suffering here surely they are struggling far more??
How do rhey keep going??

You have to remember that Russians are far more used to hardship than we in the west are.

Igot

Maybe but even so they will get used to the basics and food etc and heating.

Inflation....all the stuff they are supposed to be suffering ( I don't want them to suffer I know it's Putin etc and they are viciously repressed) it's just how is he still getting away with it and enforced conscription

What exactly do you mean? If you have any specific questions, I can probably answer

The first thing that comes to mind - the sanctions do affect those who work/study/travel abroad. Money transfers, using MasterCard or Visa outside Russia are the issues. Mir card works in some countries, but not everywhere. There are problems for people who live in other countries and rent out their properties, or for those who have clients and need to recieve payments from abroad. Still, most find some ways around.
Don't know what else to mention, this is the most visible thing reg. sanctions, ready to answer the questions

I visited my friends who fled Kherson today who have family in Moscow. Apparently the price of food items have definitely gone up but the shelves aren't bare. China and other Russia friendly countries are supplying them with food, clothes etc. So whilst there might be an absence of certain brands there is not a general supply issue. I am no economist so I don't understand how far reaching the sanctions were meant to be. Were they intended to deplete the oligarchs (the first targets) or were they meant to affect the whole population to stir up domestic dissent? From what I heard today they are not having that impact.

@Ranevskaya Do you know if/how it's affecting food supplies and medical care outside the cities? Is there any effect at all or is it fairly much business as normal?

Day 303, December 23rd. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 24 December 2022

Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: shelling, civilians getting killed
🔥 Vuhledar: battles
🔥 Soledar, Bakhmut: battles. Rumors of 🇺🇦 Ukraine pushing 🇷🇺 back even more from Bakhmut.
🔥 Nyzhnia Duvanka-Kreminna: the same fuss, as before
Overall no significant changes, not much happening operationally, but bloody tactical battles. Many solders dying near Bakhmut, but 🇷🇺 losses are approximately 7 times higher.
🔥 Melitopol explosion:
Several FSB employees killed and local collaborator policemen wounded. There are 4 things that affect morale and mental state during war: 1) unexpected artillery shelling 2) mine risk 3) sudden destruction of your post while you were away 4) explosions in seemingly peaceful cities
🔥 Belarus:
Information published on attacks being prepared from 🇧🇾 Belarus. 🇧🇾 Belarus group is not ready for attacks, but they will be used to create psychological pressure. Likely scaremongering will be combined with air strikes, to disrupt Christmas and New Year celebrations.
There are 11k troops in various training grounds around 🇧🇾 Belarus, not in single united group, they are slowly getting tanks and reinforcements. There are several dozen to hundred of Wagner mercenaries.
It’s possible that 🇷🇺 will create provocations, possibly enter, attack and bounce, probing northern border, creating illusion of larger attack, fixing 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces. In some extreme case, it’s possible that 🇷🇺 would throw all of those forces to get killed, just to keep 🇺🇦 forces busy, instead of being deployed to East. 🇺🇦 Ukraine has created various engineering and defensive solutions. Even attacking force is less – barely 10 BTGs of novice draftees, compared to 17 elite BTGs on 24th of February. There is nothing, that could reach Kyiv again.
🔥 Iran:
🇮🇱 Israel reports that 🇮🇷 Iran is planning to expand supplies to 🇷🇺, as well as work on uranium enrichment. Unlikely 🇮🇱 Israel would start a war, to decrease supplies to 🇷🇺. 🇺🇦 Ukraine getting Patriot air defense, is possibly a result of 🇮🇷 Iran supplying ballistic missiles to 🇷🇺, Patriot’s first use is intercepting ballistic missiles.
🔥 Rogozin:
Various rumors and news, but nothing important to pay attention.
🔥 Artillery and aviation:
Washington Post: 🇺🇸U.S. can manufacture the same amount of 155mm artillery shells, that 🇺🇦 are spending in just two days. If this was true, 🇺🇦 Ukraine would be long out of ammo. 🇺🇦 Ukraine is using more shells than NATO would, but it’s due to NATO main force being aviation.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is also getting JDAM conversion kits, that can convert existing 250kg or 500kg bombs into smart bombs with accuracy 10m. A 500kg bomb leaves crater with 5m depth and 10-15m width. Those bombs should be controllable and launched 20km away from target. There are no targets that would survive such bombs. This would be game-changing, comparable to HIMARS, if 🇺🇦 Ukraine manages to convert enough bombs. Quantity of supplied kits is unknown.
🔥 Putin visits weapons factory:
Aim to show care for needs of solders, and his physical fitness. Rumors of his doppelganger doing visit.
🔥 Psychological assistance program:
🇺🇦 starting program to provide psychological assistance to it’s solders. For PTSD it’s much easier to provide preventive training, than to work with consequences. Preparations are done as part of regular training, proper training decreases PTSD cases by 70%. Government should provide psychological assistance to any solder or policemen, showing how to notice symptoms in themselves and colleagues. Post-war traumas are felt for decades, even generations. For example after WW2, structure of marriage changed in USSR countries, it’s still being felt 70 years later. Traumas can be decreased with proper treatment, but the amount of psychologists needed is going to be huge.
🔥 U.N. Security Council:
🇪🇺 Charles Michel suggests creating mechanism to remove 🇷🇺 from 🇺🇳U.N. Security council. Start of discussion is quite significant and can be compared to 🇺🇦 Ukraine getting Patriot air defense, which it previously was denied.
🔥 U.S. proposal to label russia as aggressor:
Instead of labeling as terrorist, a workaround proposal to label 🇷🇺 as aggressor. Label of terrorist would require 🇺🇸 U.S. to start immediate financial monitoring, sanctions and limit ability for any country to work with 🇷🇺. All 🇺🇸U.S. economic would be focused on limiting 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China deals with 🇷🇺. 🇺🇸 U.S. does not want this confrontation, thus label of aggressor would be used for first time, there are no predefined actions, they can be added slowly.
🔥 Weapons and financial aid:
🇷🇺 ambassador Antonov: 🇺🇸U.S. is waging war against 🇷🇺 , risking direct clash. 🇷🇺 rhetoric is high, because 🇺🇸 U.S. is making decisions on $44 bn assistance, including $24 bn military assistance. There is going to be a series of very pleasant surprises. Likely 🇷🇺 is already informed, thus the rhetoric, as they can’t do anything else.
G7 commits to $32 bn assistance in 2023.
🇷🇺 dreams for pushing 🇺🇦 Ukraine into dead-end, stable front-line, as before 24th February. 1.2 million solders (combined army and other structures), with ability to increase will not allow positional war, even if western assistance ceases. Already approved assistance guarantees victory at minimum.
🔥 Saakashvili:
A letter and toxicology report by David E. Smith MD, & Associates stating that Saakashvili was poisoned link]. Human rights are not internal matter, and have international prerogative. It would be very bad to 🇬🇪 Georgian government for Saakashvili to die in prison, it would cause international response. To avoid unnecessary death, Arestovych personally is prepared to vouch for him.

Old reports:

Day 304, December 24th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 25 December 2022

🔥 Battlefield overview
🔥Kherson
Russian troops hit the centre of Kherson city with artillery, leaving at least 10 dead and about 60 wounded, many in serious condition. The first strike on the city centre was followed by another one on the residential area in a couple of hours. While the shelling of Kherson started one week after the Russian troops were expelled from Kherson, this is the biggest strike on the city – a pervert Christmas eve “gift” from the Russian Federation that claims that the people of Kherson as “Russian citizens”. The Ukrainian army will make Russian troops pay for their crimes against Ukrainian civilians.
🔥Belarus
Lukashenko is going to visit Moscow. The main objective is to synchronise with the Russian operations, giving logistical support, training and equipment to the Russian troops. For now, there are no indications of the Belarusian army joining the war. Another reason is the PsyOps creating panic and forcing Ukraine to keep troops in Northern Ukraine to prevent a potential attack from Belarus. Putin also wants to show dominance in the relationship with Lukashenko, as it was questioned when Putin went to Minsk to meet Lukashenko.
🔥The American support for Ukraine
The PM of Hungary claims that Ukraine can only fight while the US is providing support to Ukraine. While Hungary didn’t clarify what they meant by this, there are couple of remarks that need to be made:
-The US, as well as EU and G7, considers support and victory of Ukraine a global security issue, not only in Europe but also worldwide. Leaving Ukraine will lead to a loss of international status and put in question the American relationship with its allies in Asia & the Pacific region and Europe while enhancing the influence of China and other autocratic regimes. Thus, domestically, abandoning Ukraine would be political suicide for any US president
-It’s a question of values (which can be hard to understand for Orban, but nevertheless) – freedom, the value of human life & democracy are still key values of the Western civilization
-Ukraine will continue fighting for its survival and protect its civilians from Russian fascist invaders (responsible for massacres in Bucha, Mariupol, torture chambers, rapes and kidnappings). Even if, in an unlikely scenario, everyone abandons Ukraine, Ukrainians will fight and will get rid of Russian invaders.
-The US has already stipulated a $43B budget, $27B of which is for military help, for Ukraine in 2023. G7 is preparing another aid package. Thus, the West is going to support Ukraine next year.
Meanwhile, Obran is already being sanctioned (with EU funding to Hungary being cut) by the EU for his anti-democratic laws and for sabotaging war efforts and supporting Russian aggression.
🔥Rogozin & backstabbing in Russia
After Rogozin was wounded while invading Ukraine, he remains bitter about his comrades betraying him and transferring the info on his location to the Ukrainian side. Betrayal and murder are common occurrences amongst Russian ranks as the Russians frequently resort to murder to solve routine disputes and power struggles amongst elites.
🔥Wagner using cannon fodder
The cases of prisoners recruited by Wagner being sent into battles without body armour and helmets are increasing. This is an indicator of severe problems with equipment and gear in the Russian army, raising doubts about the future mobilization potential of Russia.
🔥Russian preparing another missile attack on Ukraine
Russia is preparing another missile attack on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and residential areas – 2 ships and 2 submarines carrying Kalibs missiles are preparing for launches in the Black Sea. Russia is having problems with the dwindling supply of Kinzal missiles, resorting to older and less precise X-series missiles.
Moreover, explosions in Kursk and Engels left Russia with 4 fewer strategic missile carrier-ariplanes, which is the main reason for the reduction of the number of missiles in the last couple of attacks on Ukraine (from 100 to 60-70).
Even if Russia stages a mass attack with 150missiles Ukraine will recover, while the Russian stock of missiles is depleting.
🔥Iranian drones & ballistic missiles
Russia is trying to buy ballistic missiles from Iran, with Western allies putting diplomatic pressure on Iran to stop helping Russia in its attack of the Ukrainian civilian population. Iran has already supplied about 1700 Shahid drones to Russia, 500 of which were already used to attack Ukraine.
🔥Wagner seeking media attention
Wagner is trying to seek media attention, domestically and internationally, to increase its policial weight in the Kremlin’s regime, resorting to lies and public executions with a sledgehammer.
🔥Department of Operation planning of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Arestovych is expressing gratitude and notes the essential role of the Department of Operation Planning of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as they are key for the success of military operations.
🔥Saving Saakashvili
Saakashvili’s health status is deteriorating while the current Georgian pro-Russian government keeps prosecuting him in his hospital bed. There is a worldwide action that is being prepared to pressure the Georgian authorities to stop the mistreatment of Saakashvili who is being poisoned while in custody.
The plan of action will be discussed during Monday’s stream and if you want to help to save this man, who fought Putin, there is something that you can do. Stay tuned.
🔥Seasonal greetings from Feygin & Arestovych
Arestovych and Feygin are wishing Merry Christmas to all Christians and non-Christians, reminding them that this is a celebration of the whole of humanity – saving humanity through teaching them love, caring, responsibility and compassion.

Day 306, December 26, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin discussion broadcast
Posted on 27 December 2022

⚡️ Engels Air Field
An accident at the Engels airfield in Russia: pilots killed, 10 aircraft flew to other air bases. A massive missile attack on Ukraine was scheduled for December 26, did not occur after the flight control center was damaged and the entire duty shift was destroyed (according to rumours).
⚡️ Bryansk
According to the FSB, a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group of 4 people was destroyed in the Bryansk region of Russia. No information from Ukrainian officials that confirms or denies it.
⚡️ Frontline Update
Ongoing fighting in the area of Vuhledar and Zaporizhye region. Russia continues to strengthen its defensive positions in Tokmak-Melitopol direction. Ukraine had successful hits on military bases on the Dnieper’s left bank (Kherson region).
The fiercest fighting goes on between Maryinka and Soledar. Russian sources report that Ukrainians have had some success in Bakhmut but no official confirmation from UA General Staff.

⚡️ Kreminna: despite rumored Ukrainian advances, there are no visible signs, although Russian sources claim the front line moved closer to Kreminna.
⚡️ Informal CIS summit
Leaders of CIS states were invited by Putin to come to St. Petersburg for what they called the Informal CIS summit. Leaders of the former Soviet states have frequently gathered in the last months.
Putin has tried to involve Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in a gas union, to control Azerbaijan-Armenia relations. The unprecedented foreign policy activity of the isolated Putin within the CIS countries is an attempt to manage the resources still available to him.
In light of the canceled address to the federal assembly and other public speaking events, Putin demonstrates to the Russian population that he can still make decisions and create partnerships in the international arena. Dec 30 marks the 100th anniversary of the USSR; this summit may also have a symbolic value for Putin.
⚡️ Sanctions
RF Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated there are “significant achievements” in the negotiations about Russian fertilizer exports. Arestovych believes the prospects for easing EU sanctions on Russian fertilizers are vague.
Today, Ukraine began to consider imposing new personal sanctions on 1,400 RF citizens. The list includes predominantly intelligence officers and the banking sector. Ukrainian sanction lists become the basis for international sanctions.
Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Yermak announced the imposition of significant sanctions on Rosatom, which has about $200 billion worth of international contracts. Sanctions are needed to stop Rosatom from financing Russian aggression.
⚡️ RF’s place in the UN
Ukraine at the UN level will file a legal claim on the incompetence of the presence of the Russian Federation as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. RF “inherited” the seat which belonged to the USSR, and this must be disputed.
RF, a permanent member of the Security Council, violated the transition procedure and systematically violates the UN Charter: crimes against humanity, war crimes, propaganda of aggression, massive killings of civilians, etc. Supporters of the Ukrainian initiative include other members of the UN Security Council.
⚡️ Weapons
American “Patriot” air defense systems will appear on the battlefield in Ukraine sooner than RU propaganda thinks is possible.
⚡️ Engels military airfield
After the recent attack at the Engels airfield, 10 aircraft were transferred to an air base in the Far East: 7 TU-95 strategic bombers and 3 TU-160. Approximately 8-10 aircraft out of 18-20 remain at Engels but the mission control center is destroyed which endangers future missions.
According to the statement of the Russian Defense Ministry about the incident at the Engels military airfield, “Air defense systems shot down a Ukrainian drone at low altitude while approaching a military airfield in Engels. As a result of the fall of its wreckage, three servicemen were killed. Aircraft equipment was not damaged.”
Three gross lies in their statement: low altitude, personnel killed by wreckage, and no damage. The Russian air defense again demonstrated incapacity to protect its strategic airfield. The irony is that this happened on the eve of the Day of Air Defense of Russia.
⚡️ Peace Formula Summit
Ukraine’s diplomatic initiative in establishing a new International Security System: at the initiative of the President of Ukraine and at the end of February, it is planned to hold the Peace Formula Summit at the UN, with G7 support.
The Peace Formula will allow the world to end the war on the terms of Ukraine and increase the degree of global security. It is based on the 10 points of Zelensky’s address to G20. Zelensky discussed this issue with Biden during his visit to Washington, and Biden supported the idea of this global summit.
Putin’s aggression destroyed the old system of global security, so it is time to create a new system. Ukraine takes the initiative in this endeavor or as Arestovych puts it, “Ukraine begins its diplomatic offensive.”
The summit will be held possibly without the RF as this “offensive” is part of the initiative to expel RF from the Security Council.
⚡️ Saving Saakashvili
There was no reaction from the Georgian authorities. Feygin and Arestovych call everyone to participate in the Global Day of Mikheil Saakashvili Support #SaveMisha on January 4, 2023.
Feygin and Arestovych urge subscribers to go to the embassies and consulates of Georgia in capital cities around the world between 12 noon and 2PM with demands to provide Saakashvili with access to adequate medical care in the West and to ensure the trial is just. Help stop the demonstrative destruction of Saakashvili in prison. This is not an issue of internal Georgian politics, but an issue of human rights.

Most up to date info:

Day 307, December 27th. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 28 December 2022

🔥Battlefield overview
Russia continues shelling Ukrainian critical infrastructure and residential areas in Kherson & Kharkiv. Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS respond by destroying Russian military targets (ammunition & military bases). Heavy fighting continues along the frontline from Vuhledar to Kreminna.

🔥Bahmut & Soledar
Heavy fighting continues. Russian forces lost some ground near Bahmut and are regrouping. High-intensity, bloody battles continue non-stop near Soledar. The situation is difficult but stable. Russian sources are concentrating their efforts between Bahmut and Soledar.

🔥Kreminna & Svatove
Tactical battles continue between Ukrainian & Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are approaching Kreminna, but the reports of the city being liberated were exaggerated.

🔥Kherson
Russia shelled a maternity ward in Kherson. Luckily, no one was hurt as staff, mothers and babies were in a bomb shelter during the attack.

🔥Putin’s Rings of Power
When meeting with heads of state at the informal meeting of the Moscow-dominated so-called Commonwealth of Independent States, Putin offered the invited leaders golden rings.
After the Russian Army failed to occupy Ukraine, attempts to convince China to help Kremlin, blackmail the world with nuclear weapons, begging Iran for drones & ballistic missiles, Russia finally resorted to some serious business – magic rings for “mortal men”…

🔥More air-defence weapons for Ukraine
The US is going to supply two more NASAMS systems to Ukraine. Moreover, the Italian PM stated that Italy is also discussing to provide more air-defence systems to help Ukraine protect itself.

🔥BBC’s prediction for War in Ukraine in 2023
BBC has mentioned 5 different scenarios of development of the war in Ukraine in 2023, which range from the fast liberation of Ukrainian territories & capitulation of Russia, to the slow defeat of Russia, to a more prolonged conflict with Russia eventually losing and withdrawing from Ukraine.
Ukraine is preparing for every possible scenario (inc. additional mobilization in Russia, etc.) and is being aided by the collective West. Meanwhile, Russian mobilization and arming capabilities are under question.

🔥Orban parroting Kremlin’s narrative
Obran keeps parroting Kremlin’s talking point, claiming that “Ukraine can only fight while the US is providing support to Ukraine”.
While Orban spreads the quintessential Kremlin narrative, appeasing Putin, many Hungarians are pro-West and pro-Ukraine. The Obran’s support for Putin will be noted by the EU and NATO.

🔥Arrest & confiscation of Russian oligarch
The property of Russian oligarchs that support the Russian invasion of Ukraine and try to smuggle Ukrainian goods into Russia is being arrested. The confiscation procedure is also starting in some cases, but the process is slow due to the investigation and legal proceedings in Ukraine to ensure that the property is indeed belonging to the Russian oligarchs.

🔥Ban on Russian oil & Putin’s self-imposed export embargo
Putin has forbidden to export of oil to states that are “unfriendly” to Russia and that support the price cap measures. This will further damage the Russian economy and oil industry, as many of the extraction sites will be closed permanently.
Putin’s decision to compromise 2/3 of the Russian budget (that depends on Russian oil sales) may create discontent among the elites and will make difficult the financing of the Army, and domestic security forces to beat the protests into submission and the Russian propaganda machine to keep the populace obedient.

🔥Europe and the US are waking up
While Europe has a limited amount of available military equipment, the American and European military-industrial complex is ramping up the production of new military equipment and the contracts for military aid to Ukraine for 2023 are being agreed. On Wednesday, the Minister of Defence of France is going to visit Kyiv, probably to discuss further military aid.

🔥No “business” as usual with Russia
Germany’s Foreign Minister Baerbock stated that “There is no way back” to the business as usual with Russia. While Europe would like for Russia to be a peaceful, liberal, democratic state, the reality of the situation is different and Europe needs to respond to Russian aggression. This marks a significant shift and improvement in EU security and strategic development policies.

🔥New global security architecture
While Europe is revitalising its military-industrial complex and strengthening its Armies to prevent attacks from Russia, the US is working closely with its allies in the Pacific region.
Indeed, countries like Japan, Australia and Taiwan are strengthening their cooperation with the US, India & amongst themselves to respond to threats from China, N. Korea and Russia. We are to see more fundamental changes in the security arrangements in this region in 2023.
$44B for Ukraine from the US and $33B from the G7 (inc. $18B from EU), which secures the Ukrainian economy (the 1% growth is predicted by international agencies) and allows to focus on the liberation of territories and global security alliance. Many of these new global security architectures will be discussed during the Peace Forum in February, which would mark 1 year of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

🔥Armenia trying to escape the Russian captivity
Armenian PM Pashinyan is criticizing the Russian failure to provide security guarantees to Armenia. At the same time, the discontent is growing in Armenia due to Russia also sacrificing Armenian interests while trying to force Armenia into a position of “union-state” (making it into a quasi-soviet style republic without any sovereign right).
Armenian people and government are rethinking the decades of dependence on and appeasing of Russia, the warmongering politics of the corrupt Karabakh clan that appeases the Kremlin at the expense of the economical and territorial safety of Armenia.

🔥Saving Saakashvili
Polish EU parliament MP stated that Georgia won’t be accepted in the EU if Mikhail Saakashvili dies in the custody of the current Georgian Government. The European community does not tolerate violation of the human right and the Georgian Gov. allowing the poisoning of Saakashvili, forcing him to participate in a trial while sick and denying appropriate medical treatment. #SaveMisha

Apologies for the huge dump of info but I thought I'd post all the daily broadcasts that I'd missed over Christmas.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief glad to have you back. Dump away. Interesting to read some of the older broadcasts as the predictions did come true.

On Dec 24:
🔥Russian preparing another missile attack on Ukraine
Russia is preparing another missile attack on Ukrainian critical infrastructure and residential areas – 2 ships and 2 submarines carrying Kalibs missiles are preparing for launches in the Black Sea. Russia is having problems with the dwindling supply of Kinzal missiles, resorting to older and less precise X-series missiles.

On Dec 29:

The Times: Russia launched more than 120 missiles and drones against targets in Ukraine this morning ... Explosions and air-raid sirens were heard in Kyiv and several other cities [Lviv to Kharkiv] during the latest bombardment, which caused widespread power cuts. The Ukrainian air force said Russia was following an overnight assault by “kamikaze” drones with attacks from airborne and sea-based cruise missiles. It later said that Russian TU-95 strategic bombers had fired cruise missiles from Volgodonsk in the Rostov region, and the northern region of the Caspian Sea. Russian warships in the Black Sea had also fired Kalibr cruise missiles, while at least 11 Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones had been destroyed by anti-aircraft defences.

That said, you cannot go far wrong to predict a massive missile attack from Russia on Ukraine civilian infrastructure every few days. It is too depressing.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong Sanctions against Russia are very far reaching and ever growing. It is not just against certain designated persons (e.g. oligarchs, their companies, business associates and family involving asset freezes, travel bans) but also sectoral sanctions against Russian banks (like VTB, Gazprombank) and Russian state institutions, exclusion from SWIFT and EU oil price caps.

The UK bans the import of LNG, gold and vodka (!) from Russia and the export of vulnerable goods deemed critical for Russia’s manufacturing sector. The UK recently banned new investment into Russia and the provision of funds or economic resources directly or indirectly to Russian-connected persons or entities. All pretty draconian measures.

That said, there are countries that do not impose such sanctions such as India, China or ME so Russia could theoretically still trade with them although for now, China does not seem to want to be seen to be actively evading US sanctions to avoid being added to the lists.

The jury is out as to how effective sanctions are. They can be evaded as Iran has been teaching Russia how to. The conventional wisdom is to use economic sanctions as a middle ground between war-war and jaw-jaw (diplomacy). It does make things more difficult for Russia and their ability to finance the war but I don't think it necessarily filters down to the average Russian in Moscow that much. The shops still have things to sell, I believe.

PS Sorry to hear that the russian cyber attack has affected your business. I know how much you have been financially supporting local humanitarian efforts in Ukraine, so it must be frustrating to not be able to contribute as much. I really hope things look up for your business and customers soon. I will step up.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar , there has been a short period back in March, some issues with imported medicine supplies and also people were stocking western-produced medicine just in case. Also logistical chains got disrupted and the currencies exchange rate briefly spiked. Since then everything got back to normal, both in big cities and small towns and villages. I travelled a lot in summer with my family (about 1500 km), stayed in very small towns - life as usual. Domestic tourism has significantly grown, so small historic or resort towns actually got richer.
In terms of food Russia is self-sufficient and exports a lot.
There are many videos on Youtube, from different towns, no empty shelves.
Many people including myself are actually surprised about how little being 'the most sanctioned country on earth' has affected the lives so far. My electricity bill (75 sq m flat) is about 14 euro a month, natural gas (gas stove only, unlimited use) - 1 euro a month. Inflation, unlike the UK is something people are used to - you can look at the 25 years inflation stats for Russia, it is a part of life here.
So the most serious issues are the problems with money transfers across the borders and probably also spare parts for western made cars and home appliances. Chinese car dealerships are quickly starting to replace European ones.

Sanctions did have a huge psychological effect though and Russian state media has been exploiting that to the maximum.
The kind of 'yes they have always been hating us, so Putin was right about NATO enlargement all along' or 'what right to they have to impose sanctions, they have always been racist /with a colonial mindset, thinking of themselves as of self-appointed world policemen' or 'who has ever imposed sanctions on them for invading Iraq or Afghanistan?' etc etc
So propaganda wise sanctions are being used all the time

WRT ways Russia may escalate in 2023, I think we might see deniable attacks on Western infrastructure, especially things like the cutting of undersea internet cables. This would cause huge disruption and would be difficult to defend against:

www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/04/5-ways-the-russian-navy-could-target-undersea-internet-cables/

www.wired.co.uk/article/submarine-internet-cables-egypt

Thank you for your answer

Domestic tourism has significantly grown, so small historic or resort towns actually got richer. The UK could do with some of that!

It is interesting to hear what it's like in smaller towns outside the cities. We hear a lot of propaganda of course and it's very good to hear a more objective stance.

This is a difficult, delicate question but do you have any sense about the new Ukrainian children in school, if they are there willingly or have been coerced? It's clear if you talk to Ukrainians that there is a lot of support for Russia in some areas, and logically quite a few would have gone to Russia. It's also clear from talking to our friends that some people and children are forcibly deported and adopted.

Unconfirmed:

Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧
@ColbyBadhwar
·
Dec 29
General Mykola Malomuzh, former Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (05-10) told Ukrainian outlet AT EspresoTV hat he believes that Ukraine has established production of 1000km range missiles and UAVs with a range of 1200km. Obviously very significant if true.

FWIW the old Soviet era Tu-141 reconnaissance drones that the Ukrainians are rumoured to have rejigged for attack purposes have (according to open sources) a range of very approximately 1000km in their original role.

Ukraine now having UAV's with a range of 1200 km is fairly credible.

The German magazine Der Spiegel recently published an interview with the head of the Lavada Center, the only independent polling agency in Russia, about Russian attitudes regarding the war, how they've changed, how they differ by age group, and the impact of sanctions. It's behind a paywall and in German, but a helpful Redditor has posted a full translation in the comments.

"Russians have little sympathy for Ukrainians". Lev Gudkov uses his independent polling institute to investigate what makes Russians tick. Here he talks about the lack of morals in his homeland, the victim mentality and the fear of nuclear war.

I don't think that the sanctions were primarily targeted at ordinary Russians. I think they were designed to hit the oligarchs, reduce government access to hard currency and cut off western investment. All of which would slow economic growth and reduce the amount of money Putin has to spend on the war.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar There a lot of propaganda, that's true. I am trying not to gloss anything over,and be objective, but I realize I don't see the full picture, even though I have access to different sources in different languages.

As for tourism - wealthy Russians just go to places like Maldives etc instead of Europe. Russian resorts are there, but in terms of service or infrastructure not many can compete with Switzerland, for instance. So some top resorts like Sochi/Krasnaya polyana are crowded, some other trying to catch up. Less tourists in Moscow and Saint-Petersburg for sure. Russia is huge, there is everything like scenery, historical places, local cultures (180 nationalities), local food, ski resorts or volcanoes, but the european level of service in places like Dagestan, Altai, Karelia is not always available for picky clients.

As for the children - I realize it is a sensitive issue and very personal. I know a very pro-Ukrainian woman from Kherson. She was looking for ways to go to Europe all summer, there have been volunteers ready to help, many possibilities, support offered etc. But she somehow ended up in Moscow with her son this autumn. You can have any views, but when it comes to the wellbeing of your child, who is already under enormous stress, decisions may be surprising. I personally understand her - with all the hospitality in other countries, here the boy can go to school, mix with classmates, communicate in his native language. The systems are similar, the mother can quickly find a job without learning a new language etc etc. Millions of people also have relatives who can help. So while it seems strange, when I try to think what I would do in such a situation, I understand this woman very well. With those who, unlike her, support Russia it is even easier to understand. I don't have any reliable sources in terms of the bad things you mentioned, so cannot comment on that.