Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

Visiting Russia.

I last went in 2013. At the time I was expecting to be in Russia at some point in the year once and maybe twice. Then the Donbass War and Crimean annexation changed everything and I couldn't go back. I can't see myself visiting until things are 'put right' so that may be never.

Visiting Ukraine

The part of Ukraine I have loved the most has been the Crimean coast in the Yalta area. So that's complicated now.

I had been planning on taking my child to Ukraine this past summer to explore roots and let her see relatives in Dnipro. That obviously didn't happen.

2023: my predictions for the first six months. Here are some short to medium term things I feel might happen in the war. So this is up to the end of June. I'm happy to be wrong on most of them. I have bolded parts of what might be the key 4.

1. Smallish gains will be made on the ground by both sides, which will be hailed as significant, but will not be too important. However, there will be a major Ukrainian advance towards Melitopol and / or Mariupol to compromise the land corridor the Russian forces have.
2. Russia will add another big and probably cruel thing to the mix. The most recent of these has been the targeting of energy infrastructure. I'm not sure what. Perhaps at a global economic level, or perhaps at a population level targeting it's treatment of people within its borders (such as Ukrainians or those opting out of serving the state's aims).
3. There will be talks or at least meetings that are talks about talks. It's easier to have talks about talks without preconditions than 'actual' talks. They probably won't get anywhere, Macron will be overoptimistic, Russia won't negotiate in good faith and what comes out of them might be at an economic/trade level in terms of what is allowed / let function unhindered. More serious conflict ending meetings might take place in the second half of the year.
4. Putin's health decline will accelerate and reach the point where he at least takes a break / vanishes for a while. It is possible that he cedes some power and in the longer term he might go, but I don't see the latter happening in the next six months.
5. International war-weariness will become more evident. More of a gap will open between the two parties in the USA, other issues will come to the fore and need to be addressed, there will be more 'yes we support Ukraine, but...' in European countries. It won't change policy, but will feature more in debate.
6. The ongoing mobilisation into the armed forces of the old, unfit, marginal and disgruntled in Russia will lead to two things: their deaths on droves and an increasing inability of the state media to keep a lid on what they experience and face.
7. Deeper Ukrainian strikes into Russia will continue with some being headline grabbing. This will cause the further pulling back of key equipment and increased paranoia among those far from the front. In response even more Russian strikes will be far from the front (and Kyiv) to stress that no part of Ukraine can consider itself untouched. However, the means to do this will be depleted further.

Bloody hell @MMBaranova that's some good analysis. You should work for NATO!

Interesting about the Ukraine advance towards Mariupol. In my head, Mariupol feels out of reach. I don't know why I feel that way, maybe because it borders Russia. The fatigue worries me and I can see how it makes sense for Russia to bank on it. Disappointed that our human behaviour is so predictable...
Can we ask for a July to December forecast?!

I wonder if the apparent run on Russian bank's and the effect that mobilisation has on the economy in Russia might be significant, no country is rushing to provide them with money. The satellite countries are already becoming braver about saying no to Russia

Tourism is an interesting thing because, while a lot of people will be directly put off going to Russia right now, so many people frequently visit the UAE (also corrupt as hell and a human rights violation hell hole) - including myself. Though not for a few years and I’m wiser to it now. I have no interest in going back. I know people who refused to visit the US under Trump. St Petersburg was a cruise line stop too. The impact must be higher than Russia will ever admit.

Putin spewing is so infuriating. You would just hope at some point in his line of people someone will hit breaking point with him and just shoot him. One can hope.

I am impressed at that analysis, @MMBaranova!

It makes sense but I am also looking for two or three key moments. The first is when Russia can no longer pay the bills - it's Central Bank forecast banked on its gas and oil exports being much higher than is the case in 2023 which means they will be running a deficit. I suspect one of the reasons why so many Russian billionaires have been suffering fatal window falls is because it will allow Putin to expropriate their wealth. If (a big if), the state ends up with bank controls and the conversion of private savings into bonds, we know it's going sideways.

The second key moment is when Russia runs out of vital components for its airlines and/or trains. Train bearings in particular are a sticking point. If you can't transport people/items around the place, you don't have a country. It will isolate the regions and cause fresh havoc with the army.

The third key moment will be Ukraine doing something to Crimea. The island is the equivalent of a pair of testicals in a street brawl. If they want to hurt Russia's pride, that's the place to do it.

"• Russia will add another big and probably cruel thing to the mix. The most recent of these has been the targeting of energy infrastructure. I'm not sure what. Perhaps at a global economic level, or perhaps at a population level targeting it's treatment of people within its borders (such as Ukrainians or those opting out of serving the state's aims)."

Great analysis @MMBaranova! This point is one
I'm holding my breath for. When we get to the summer and Russia is really on the keen I think we're at a dangerous point for shock and awe.

I'd add to the mix the Taiwan question alongside potential kick offs between Kosovo and Serbia. I've been doing a lot of research into China and Taiwan and most analysts fall on the side of maintaining the status quo being the most likely option but Rory Stewart on TRIP podcast this morning seems more worried about in in the context of Kosovo-Serbia.

They discussed Kosovo/Serbia on the Global News podcast, I think yesterday. Worth listening to.

Its like arguing whether Fred West was more insane than Peter Sutcliff!!!
Boris J could be described as undemocratic and controlling, Xi is a fuckin mass murderer.. his ability to have CC? plenty of insane leaders have built them, killed millions but we didn't describe them as "controlling"

When and it is when, Xi attacks Taiwan... will doubtless revisit this.

Moving on...

China via N. Korea or directly, can supply Russia with what it needs to prosecute this war for many more years..... India is still trading with Russia too, so plenty of money still pouring in.

Russia itself can manufacture "dumb" munitions all on its own and again with NK, sanctions wont stop Putin.

The weapons Ukraine needs to defend itself aren't being supplied and unless UA has been trained on Patriot months ago, wont be ready to be deployed,
I argued strongly for Patriot in the spring on here... told back then it would take too long to train up and the war will be over by then...... ...
This war will carry on for years, its the modern Russian MO.

Interesting analysis that doesn't sugar coat things

https://ridl.io/the-russo-ukrainian-war-ten-months-in-taking-stock/

@Alexandra2001

The weapons Ukraine needs to defend itself aren't being supplied and unless UA has been trained on Patriot months ago, wont be ready to be deployed,
I argued strongly for Patriot in the spring on here... told back then it would take too long to train up and the war will be over by then...... ...

TBF back then and certainly after about day three of the conflict the S-300 was probably doing just as good as an exportable version of Patriot can at shooting down short range ballistic missiles and denying the Russian Air Force use of most airspace at most altitudes over Ukraine...the problem was finding replacement missiles - those seem to have come from other users.

Also TBF Patriot doesn't grow on trees and the US might not have been keen to remove batteries from other potential conflict areas for reasons e can only guess at, but that's just me speculating.

I'd also really caution that looking ahead it's possible that Patriot won't be the magic solution some think it might be to the major problem of the Iranian built/supplied/designed drones, though it will no doubt be of some help and certainly better than nothing.

well, only having ONE patriot certainly means they aren't going to be a magic bullet against the drones!

I suspect one of the reasons why so many Russian billionaires have been suffering fatal window falls is because it will allow Putin to expropriate their wealth.

There have been quite a few rumours that Putin is gunning for oligarchs now for exactly that reason. Not always in a lethal way, but they're being expected to give up their wealth.

The weapons Ukraine needs to defend itself aren't being supplied

The US alone has supplied over $20 billion in weapons, ammunition and other military supplies, and other countries have supplied billions more. What Ukraine needs to defend itself has changed over the course of the war. Should we have sent Patriots in the beginning rather than antitank weapons? Over the summer, would Patriots have been preferred to HIMARS?

As @notimagain noted, Ukraine's air defenses were sufficient earlier in the war and have been supplemented by man-portable air defense systems and medium-range systems like NASAMS. The pipeline for weapons is only so large, and there are supply constraints and constraints on how much new kit Ukraine can absorb and sustain. The idea that Ukraine should have been given everything in the arsenal initially is unrealistic.

well, only having ONE patriot certainly means they aren't going to be a magic bullet against the drones!

True, but in any event it's not just battery numbers, it's possible capabilities or possible lack thereof....and that's a bit of a ? until demonstrated in theatre.

If I had my say in an ideal world for drone defence currently I'd be thinking along the line of giving Ukraine an Airborne Early Warning capability (E-2 Hawkeye, maybe, if the radar is good enough in certain areas, E-3 Sentry isn't going to happen - politics) plus lots of stuff for close in air defence around key areas e.g. IRIS-T, Flakpanzer Gepard.....

A real nice to have to fill holes in the lines as SAM batteries fire out and to engage at longer range might be some more modern air to air missiles for the existing fighter fleet.

But that's in my world, in the real world.................

Putin, Lavrov, Peskov etc just keep doubling down, it makes me feel despondent that the West will lose interest in Ukraine before the Kremlin does, report from today:

Explosions rock Ukrainian cities as Russia launches 'more than 100 missiles' in waves

https://apple.news/Au51WQmyuTDuVxytzNMTlng

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28

ISW Key Takeaways

The Russian offensive against Bakhmut is likely culminating.

Russian forces appear to be preparing for a decisive effort in Luhansk Oblast and appear less likely to conduct a new offensive in Zaporizhia Oblast in the winter of 2023.

The Kremlin continues to demonstrate that Russia has no genuine intention of engaging in negotiations with Ukraine by insisting that Ukraine accept Russia’s illegal annexations of Ukrainian land.

The Kremlin continues to present the US transfer of Patriot air defense systems as an escalation in US-Russia relations, but ISW forecasts with high confidence that Russia will not deliberately seek to escalate to a major conflict with NATO as a result.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations toward Kreminna, where Russian forces continued counterattacks to regain lost positions.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued defensive and rotational operations in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

The Kremlin has approved additional funds for the development of defensive fortifications and is attempting to staff fortification efforts in Russian border areas and occupied Ukraine.

ISW forecasts with high confidence that Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion. Russia is barely holding off the Ukrainian military at a fearful cost to itself and Russian forces in Ukraine could not survive a serious conflict with NATO at this time. The risks of deliberate Russian escalation to a major conflict with NATO in the foreseeable future are thus extremely low.

+++

very interesting article on partisan activity in Kherson kyivindependent.com/national/a-glance-into-khersons-underground-resistance-during-russian-occupation

+++

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Former Ukrainian lawmaker detained (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/former-ukrainian-lawmaker-detained-in-france) in France.
At the request of Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation, French law enforcement reportedly detained former Ukrainian lawmaker and businessman Kostiantyn Zhevago at the French ski resort Courchevel.

⚡️ SBU: Ukrainian sentenced (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sbu-ukrainian-sentenced-to-11-years-in-prison-for-leaking-information-to-russian-troops) to 11 years in prison for leaking information to Russian troops.

⚡️Kremlin spokesman: Peace possible only if Ukraine agrees (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/kremlin-spokesman-peace-possible-only-if-ukraine-agrees-to-russias-annexation-of-its-regions) to Russia's annexation of its regions. [so much for 'negotiation' then]

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Russian soldiers involved in Bucha massacre identified (kyivindependent.com/investigations/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-russian-soldiers-involved-in-bucha-massacre-identified)

⚡️ Zelensky, BlackRock CEO discuss (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-black-rock-ceo-discuss-reconstruction-of-ukraine) reconstruction of Ukraine.
In a video conference with BlackRock investment company CEO Larry Fink, President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed the reconstruction of Ukraine, reported the President’s Office.

⚡️ UK to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-sea-king-helicopters) Ukraine with Sea King helicopters.
The U.K. will supply Ukraine with Sea King helicopters as part of its continued support for Kyiv amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry announced on Dec. 28.

⚡️ Air Force: Ukraine’s military has downed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-ukraines-military-has-downed-nearly-900-russian-missiles-drones-since-september) nearly 900 Russian missiles, drones since September.

⚡️ Reznikov: France to continue supplying (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reznikov-france-to-continue-supplying-ukraine-with-weapons-ammunition) Ukraine with weapons, ammunition.

⚡️ Ukraine, other countries urge (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-other-countries-urge-iran-to-take-responsibility-for-downing-of-flight-ps-752) Iran to take responsibility for downing of flight PS752.

⚡️New York Times: US tries to stop Iran (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/new-york-times-us-tries-to-stop-iran-from-providing-drones-for-russia) from providing drones for Russia.

⚡️Ukrainian military: Russia deploys additional ships (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukrainian-military-russia-deploys-additional-ships-to-black-sea) to Black Sea.

⚡️Podolyak: Russia launches over 120 missiles (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/podolyak-russia-has-launched-over-120-missiles-against-ukraine) against Ukraine on 29th
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, said that over 120 missiles were launched by Russia against Ukraine on Dec. 29 "to destroy critical infrastructure and kill civilians en masse."
Editor's Note: This article initially said that 120 Russian missiles were launched at Ukraine on Dec. 29, citing Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the President's Office. The article was updated after Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the chief commander of Ukraine's Armed Forces, published different numbers. According to Zaluzhnyi, 69 Russian missiles were launched on Dec. 29.

⚡️Air Force Command: Russia attacks Ukraine with cruise missiles (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/air-force-command-russia-attacks-ukraine-with-cruise-missiles-from-different-directions) from different directions.

⚡️Mayor: 90% of Lviv without power (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-90-of-lviv-without-power).
Following Russia’s ongoing mass missile attack against Ukraine, Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovy reported at around 10 a.m. local time that 90% of the city is without electricity.
The mayor said that the water supply might be interrupted as well.

⚡️Mayor: 16 Russian missiles shot down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-16-russian-missiles-shot-down-over-kyiv) over Kyiv.

⚡️Mayor: 40% of Kyiv residents left without electricity (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-40-of-kyiv-residents-left-without-electricity-following-russias-morning-attack) following Russia's morning attack.
Despite the attack, Kyiv’s capacity to supply heat and water wasn’t affected, according to mayor Vitali Klitschko.

⚡️Commander: Ukraine shoots down (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/commander-ukraine-shoots-down-54-out-of-69-missiles-fired-by-russia) 54 out of 69 missiles fired by Russia on Dec. 29.

⚡️Belarus state media report (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/belarus-state-media-report-ukrainian-missile-falling-on-belarusian-territory-amid-russian-mass-strike-against-ukraine) Ukrainian missile falling on Belarusian territory amid Russian mass strike against Ukraine.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Microsoft has returned to the Russians the ability to download the Windows operating system
The operating system download page is again available for users with a Russian IP address without using a VPN.

1000 Crimean Tatars are fleeing the criminal Russian mobilization to Turkey – the representative office of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Germany will lead the NATO High Readiness Group
The group is part of the alliance's rapid reaction force. According to them, it is 11.5 thousand people.
"On January 1, Germany will assume command of a high-alert NATO military unit, readying thousands of its troops for deployment over several days," the alliance's press service said.
The official representative of the North Atlantic Alliance, Oana Lungescu, stressed that this step by NATO means the intention "to protect every centimeter of the territory of the alliance." [I hope they're a bit more quick to analyze threats and respond more rapidly than Scholz then]

Ukraine will receive 240 school buses as part of solidarity action from the European Commission

The United States will additionally order automated fire control systems for 18 new HIMARS MLRS, which will be transferred to Ukraine
The systems make it possible to gather together information from intelligence, infantry, artillery, aviation, etc., which gives a general idea of
the operational picture of battles and fire support. [it says 'ordered' so presumably this won't be a quick delivery]

Almost 14,000 Ukrainian children were taken by the invaders to the territory of the Russian Federation, 400 of them have already been adopted by Russian families, says human rights activist and lawyer Yekateryna Rashevska
Unfortunately, it is impossible to identify these children, because in most cases the personal data of young Ukrainians have been changed. [may those fuckers ROT IN HELL]

🤪 Investigators from The Insider sent Russian Tik Tokers a fake request for ads purporting to be from the Kremlin
For just a few thousand rubles, bloggers began to say that bathing Putin in deer blood was completely normal, and even Lenin and Stalin did it.
Another completed order was a post stating that Zelenskyy is “actually a Jew,” and his real name is Bayraktar.

🌾 "Grain Initiative": almost 100 ships were blocked in line due to artificial barriers of the Russian Federation
All ships are "stuck" in the Bosphorus because the Russians conduct only six out of 10 scheduled inspections every day, the Ministry of Infrastructure said. [how very Russian. agree to something and then stymie it]

The volume of Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries has reached its lowest levels in over 20 years, — Bloomberg
Thus, Russian gas exports “to key foreign markets” decreased by 46% compared to 2021.

The war in Ukraine has faced a dead end
According to the head of military intelligence Budanov, this was due to the fact that neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve significant success on the battlefield.

📍Engels, Russia. Today there were explosions again, air defense went off. [a third Ukrainian attack?]

⚡️ The leader of the German opposition demands that Scholz agree on the supply of tanks to Ukraine, – RTL

Live: Ukraine Telegram

📊54% of Ukrainians believe that the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate should be completely banned. Another 24% support a softer approach - the establishment of state control over the activities of the church. 12% of respondents believe that nothing should be done - these are the results of a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

SBU serves suspicion notice to Poltava mayor
Oleksandr Mamai is suspected of unauthorized dissemination of information on the movement of weapons and ammunition, relocation or deployment of Ukrainian military units.

General designer of new launch vehicles "Angara" Vladimir Nesterov died in Russia.
The main products he developed were launch vehicles of the Proton family. As well as the development of carriers "Angara".
A few days ago, the developer of the Kalibr missile died.
Mysterious deaths in Russia continue. [this is the first report I've seen of these particular deaths. Hell of a crop of death atm though]

⚡️The main news for December 28:
▪️ Delivery of French air defense systems to Ukraine will continue
▪️ Zelensky presented the commander of the HIMARS battery with an award from US President Biden
▪️ Russia evacuates its occupation command from Kreminna in Luhansk region
▪️ Law enforcement officers detained Ukrainian oligarch Konstantin Zhevago in France
▪️ Dismantling of the monument to Catherine II began in Odesa
▪️ Russian military desert en masse in the occupied territories

🇬🇧UK to allocate £2.3 billion to support Ukraine in 2023, - UK Defence Secretary.

Looking at the losses, something big happened. More hardware lost, 1 helicopter and nearly 800 personnel.

@notimagain I prefer your world (even if it does have a French tinge (gently teasing at least it'd provide good wine!)

Ukraine seems to want several hundred more tanks including Leopards and ATACMS. I wish wish those would be supplied. The war is at stalemate. Unless today's figures indicate something is happening

Interesting predictions @MMBaranova they seem right, especially Putin's health, I'm sure that'll be getting much worse in the near future.

RE visiting Russia, I visited a few times when I first moved to Finland and I've always wanted to go back (especially on the trains) and I still want to, one day in the future when hopefully the regime is dead and gone and a new Russia has emerged.

Ukraine is now on the list to travel too as well.

Reg. visiting Russia. Interesting to read this, because for some reason I come across more and more stories from people visiting Russia for the first time this year or even moving with their families to Russia (from the US, Germany, Australia, UK etc.) I wonder if it is just some algorithm in YouTube/Facebook etc that keeps suggesting those stories, or if something unusual is really going on but it started this year for sure.

hehehe that can be pretty well guarenteed by algorithms. Though without doubt Russia will emphasise it to the best of their abilities.

All the information from reasonably reliable sources is that people are leaving, both foreigners and Russians who are draft-dodging.

Besides, given Russia's incarceration of Brittney Griner for a tiny amount of weed (iirc) ..... I really don't think any foreigner who has the slightest bit of foresight would want to move to Russia. Far far too easy targets for hostage-taking.

I do agree that statistics will certainly show more people leaving - I personally know several people who had to move. A friend from the UK with a Russian wife had to go back to London because his company closed the office in Moscow. Some Russians left as well, including two people I personally know and a teacher from my daughter's school. However, there are also cases when people move in the opposite direction, for different reasons. Again, some are mixed Russian/UK, Russian/German etc families, some because their quality of life went down in Europe (energy prices etc) some for other reasons. And obviously many more Ukrainians in Russia, I know at least four new kids from there in my children's school.

Yes, and some Ukrainians probably moved there willingly. But a lot more were coerced into going, from all accounts.

The flow -into- Russia of foreigners is miniscule compared to the flow outwards from the information available. People just don't want to be there.