ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
ISW assesses that the Kremlin has been setting conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA)βa renewed offensive from Belarus possibly aimed at Kyivβsince at least October 2022. The Kremlin may be conducting an information operation or may actually be preparing for this MDCOA, which ISW continues to assess to be unlikely but possible.
Prominent Russian pro-war milbloggers are amplifying the possibility of the MDCOA over the winter-spring period.
The Russian military continues to trip indicators for the MCDOA, reinforcing an information operation designed to establish the plausibility of the MDCOA or preparations to execute it.
The Russian military has more clearly been setting conditions for an offensive in northwestern Luhansk Oblast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly preparing to present a peace plan in February 2023, which could be timed to exploit a failed Russian winter offensive.
Russian President Vladimir Putinβs renewed public appearances likely indicate that he has become more concerned about his popularity and image in Russia.
Russian forces conducted at least two reconnaissance-in-force operations in northern and northeastern Ukraine on December 22-23.
Ukrainian forces likely made tactical gains east and south of Bakhmut City over the past 72 hours.
Russian forces are continuing to establish defensive positions in left-bank Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts and are conducting defensive operations in southern Ukraine.
The Kremlin is intensifying its censorship efforts to silence concerns over an expansion of the Russian Armed Forces and a second mobilization wave.
Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian officials in occupied territories.
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Kyiv Indep Telegram
β‘οΈEuropean Commission expects Ukraine to follow Venice Commission recommendations (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/suspilne-european-commission-expects-ukraine-to-take-into-account-venice-commission-recommendations-on-constitutional-court-bill) on Constitutional Court bill.
β‘οΈEstonia to send Ukraine new military aid
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/estonia-to-send-ukraine-new-military-aid-package)package.
The Estonian government has decided to provide Ukraine with an additional military aid package, according to the country's Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
"The package mostly concerns personal equipment because this is what the Ukrainians specifically asked us for," said Pevkur.
β‘οΈStoltenberg: Putin doesnβt want peace (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/stoltenberg-putin-doesnt-want-peace-but-pause-for-regrouping), but pause for regrouping.
β‘οΈNetherlands to provide (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/netherlands-to-provide-ukraine-with-2-5-billion-euros-in-aid-in-2023) Ukraine with 2.5 billion euros in aid in 2023.
βAs long as Russia continues its war against Ukraine, the Netherlands will provide assistance to Ukraine,β said Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte. [good. We're pissartists about Roumania and the Schengen vote, and total pissartists about energy bills, but at least there's a lot of support for Ukraine!]
β‘οΈEuropean Commission sends (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/european-commission-sends-66-million-euros-for-ukrainian-schools-restoration) 66 million euros for Ukrainian schoolsβ restoration.
Ukraine expects 34 million euros more. Russiaβs all-out war has destroyed or damaged more than 2,800 educational institutions in Ukraine, according to Education Minister Serhii Shkarlet
Belarus Weekly: Russia transfers more military equipment to Belarus, deploys closer to Ukrainian border (kyivindependent.com/regional/belarus-weekly-russia-transfers-more-military-equipment-to-belarus-deploys-closer-to-ukrainian-border)
β‘οΈMayor: Additional emergency hubs set up (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/mayor-additional-emergency-hubs-set-up-in-kyiv-amid-power-outages) in Kyiv amid power outages.
β‘οΈProsecutors uncover (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/prosecutors-uncover-54-russian-torture-chambers-investigate-over-5-000-cases-of-alleged-torture) 54 Russian torture chambers, investigate over 5,000 cases of alleged torture.
β‘οΈUkraine will open (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukraine-will-open-embassies-in-10-african-countries) embassies in 10 African countries.
β‘οΈGovernor: Electricity deficit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-electricity-deficit-in-kyiv-oblast-still-at-50) in Kyiv Oblast still at 50%.
β‘οΈPutin tells (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/putin-tells-russian-defense-industry-to-ramp-up-production-for-war-in-ukraine) Russian defense industry to ramp up production for war in Ukraine.
"It's also important to perfect and significantly improve the technical characteristics of weapons and equipment for our fighters based on the combat experience we have gained," Putin said at a meeting of defense industry leaders in the Russian city of Tula on Dec. 23.
β‘οΈGeneral Staff: Russia moves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-moves-more-personnel-equipment-to-front-line-in-ukraine) more personnel, equipment to front line in Ukraine.
β‘οΈMoscow Times: Kremlin censors (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/moscow-times-kremlin-censors-talk-of-mobilization-in-russian-state-controlled-media) talk of mobilization in Russian state-controlled media.
Russian state-controlled media outlets have reportedly been prohibited from publishing any information about the mobilization in the country, even if the statements originate from Russiaβs parliament, the Moscow Times reported, citing unnamed officials.
β‘οΈIAEA continues work on preventing nuclear accident (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-russian-forces-shell-sumy-oblast-with-artillery) at Ukraineβs Zaporizhzhia power plant.
Diplomatic talks continue to establish a nuclear safety and security protection zone around Ukraineβs Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with the aim to agree and implement the much-needed measure soon, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi said in a Dec. 23 statement.
At least 8 killed (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/governor-at-least-5-killed-35-injured-in-russian-attack-on-central-kherson), 35 injured in Russian attack on central Kherson.
β‘οΈNYT: Ukraineβs intelligence chief says Russia has received (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/nyt-ukraines-intelligence-chief-says-russia-receives-1-700-kamikaze-drones-from-iran) 1,700 kamikaze drones from Iran.
β‘οΈCourt sentences (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/court-sentences-4-russian-soldiers-to-11-years-jail-for-torturing-ukrainian-veterans) 4 Russian soldiers to 11 years' jail for torturing Ukrainian veterans.
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Live: Ukraine Telegram
πΊπΈπ¬π§ The United States and the United Kingdom have officially accused North Korea of supplying ammunition and "infantry missiles" to mercenaries of the Russian "Wagner PMC". The media wrote the day before that the first delivery was last month.
π°π΅ Official Pyongyang denies the accusations.
βΌοΈUEFA organizes an international tournament in Russia
UEFA and the Russian Football Union have agreed to hold an international tournament among U-16 teams in Volgograd
These competitions are included in the program of UEFA development tournaments for boys and girls under the age of 16
There is no easing of sanctions for adult football yet
Putin's announcement to expand the Russian army by around 30% to 1.5 million shows intentions to prepare for long-term strategic challenges - British intelligence
βοΈThe Security Service of Ukraine put on the international wanted list a Russian woman who urged her husband-occupier to rape Ukrainian women.
German railway carrier Deutsche Bahn has handed over 63 generators to JSC "Ukrzaliznytsia" and is preparing another 325. [the intention to send these was mentioned a few days ago]
Zelensky announced the main tasks for diplomats for the next year
πΊ Start of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU
πΊ Preparing for the planned NATO summit and ensuring concrete results of this summit for Ukraine
πΊ Work on updated defense and security needs
Ambassador of Ukraine in TΓΌrkiye Vasyl Bondar told about the conditions of stay of the released commanders of the units from Mariupol. According to him, they are limited only in movement and communication with the outside world.
Bondar stressed that the dismissed commanders are provided with medicines, food and sports equipment. Their condition has improved. But they are restricted in movement and communication.
According to the Ambassador, this is due to security issues and is necessary for further exchanges.
π±π»Latvia this year prevented more than 3000 attempts to circumvent EU sanctions against Russia and Belarus, - Customs Department of the State Revenue Service of Latvia.
π¨π³Chinese Ambassador to the European Union Fu Kong said that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has put China "in a very difficult situation". He stressed that the Chinese authorities do not want to "choose between friends" - Ukraine and Russia
UNITED24 Media
Iran intends to increase the supply of advanced weapons to Russia, as well as expand the uranium enrichment project, β Israeli intelligence director Mossad David Barnea
βWe warn of Iranβs further intentions, which the Iranian authorities are trying to keep secret, to deepen and increase the supply of modern weapons to Russia, expand the uranium enrichment project and intensify attacks on Israel-friendly Muslim countries in the region,β Barnea said.
β‘οΈThe European Commission freezes the payment of 22 billion euros to Hungary from European funds until a number of conditions are met
The main reason is the policy of Budapest, which runs counter to EU norms. Among them: the independence of the judiciary, academic freedoms, LGBT rights and the asylum system for refugees.
Earlier, European structures have already frozen β¬6 billion for Hungarians due to the lack of independence of the judiciary and the lack of fight against corruption.
βοΈIt is necessary to develop a mechanism for "suspension" of Russia's membership in the UN Security Council, β the head of the European Council, Charles Michel, in an interview with RTVi
A deputy from St. Petersburg asked the prosecutor's office to open a criminal case against Putin after he called the "special operation" a "war" [if that's true, he's got the life expectancy of a fly]
Canada threatened North Korea over the supply of weapons to PMC Wagner
President Joe Biden signs the $858 billion 2023 defense budget, β White House
Ukraine should receive long-range missiles to hit targets on the territory of the Russian Federation, β ex-commander of NATO forces in Europe Philip Breedlove
Finland has allocated 5 million euros to the program to restore the Ukrainian energy system and implement a green transition to cleaner energy sources, the Finnish government said in a statement
The funds will be used to reconstruct critical infrastructure facilities, housing and medical care.
The Bulgarian Defense Ministry has launched an operation to deliver weapons to Ukraine β Chief of Defense Staff Admiral Emil Eftimov...The list of weapons provided is classified.
The European Union is working on a legal basis for the confiscation of Russian assets frozen under sanctions and their direction for the restoration of Ukraine, β the head of the European Council, Charles Michel
Over the past day, exchange prices for gas in Europe fell by 11% β for the first time since June 13, they fell below $900 per thousand cubic meters.
β οΈ Russia has launched 540 of 1700 Iranian Shahed drones in Ukraine
Occupants in the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia threaten with local executions and are waiting for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming days
They told the inhabitants of Pology and nearby settlements:
βCivilians are prohibited from leaving their homes on the 25th. Those who leave will be punished up to and including execution.β
Between themselves, the Russians call December 25 the day of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the front line from Vasylivka to Vyhledar. But it is possible that they are simply trying to intimidate local residents because well-aimed attacks on enemy bases have become more frequent in this area.
Putin has a sinister spring war strategy in Ukraine: Ukraine cannot win the war on the defensive β retired US Army General Barry McCaffrey
He added that Ukraine needs to be provided with a tool that will allow the country to break out of this situation, such as long-range surface-to-surface missiles and M1 tanks.
Ukraine is in a situation where it has put the Russian army under check, not checkmate.