Ukraine Invasion: Part 36

[MagicFox]

Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 Thanks as usual to all contributors and lurkers

For anyone who finds Twitter insanity stressful, the Battleground Ukraine podcast is very measured, well informed and generally sensible.

Unsure

According to someone I read somewhere, the US intelligence community has always reckoned that when the USSR/Russia is not making threatening noises about nukes is the time to worry. The reasoning is that if they actually planned to use them, they wouldn't signal it; they would rely at least a little on the element of surprise.

I must say, that makes a lot of sense to me.

Highly recommend today’s Battleground: Ukraine podcast “Escalation Dominance” - fascinating.

Sir Hew Strachan makes the point that he worries less about the war spreading the longer it goes on with doing so. He suggests that the great powers, including Russia, have become good at managing their respective risks.

*without doing so

I can’t help but think Zelensky realistically knows that EU membership is light years away. Ukraine isn’t fit to join the EU in the near or even distant future. This isn’t me hating on Ukraine. It’s just a matter of fact. Zelensky is at the helm of a historically corrupt, now war torn country. I imagine the bill gives him more jurisdiction (in fact, it seems to be total control over the constitutional court- is that ever going to be a good thing?) over who gets what roles. This could smoke out all the rats… and likely replace them with new ones, but ones of his choosing. He could be burning down his own house to smoke them out. At any rate, it’s a weird decision, not a good look, for sure.

I wonder if you're onto something there. It's clear the courts have had some serious problems with corruption - someone was only recently both sanctioned by the US for corruption and then removed by Zelenskyy, and he made a comment that in war you can get things done that you just can't in peacetime.

I wonder if this would be a temporary measure to remove more corrupt people and then repeal it. It really seems unthinkable that Zelenskyy/his successor would allow something to stand that stops their accession to the UK. I don't think myself they are light years away.

Corruption is a problem in every country but perhaps worse in Ukraine, legacy of the Soviet rule. I've been told by a Polish friend that the govts there kept a twenty-year campaign up to reduce corruption in Poland, and that it has been effective. So it can be possible to reduce it.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

. It really seems unthinkable that Zelenskyy/his successor would allow something to stand that stops their accession to the UK.

😀...I think I know what you mean (and second the frequent calls for an edit function in this place).

I don't think myself they are light years away.

Agreed.

ISW Key Takeaways
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-22

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to treat Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpart, further indicating that he is not interested in serious negotiations with Ukraine.

Putin’s rhetoric is a part of an ongoing Russian information operation that denies Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign state.

Putin amplified an existing Russian information operation designed to decrease Western security assistance for Ukraine.

Putin is continuing to absolve himself of responsibility for conducting a protracted war in Ukraine.

Russian Chief of General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, attempted to revive a debunked Russian narrative that the Kremlin invaded Ukraine to preempt a fictitious planned Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Donbas and Crimea.

The Kremlin claimed that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the frontlines in Ukraine for the second time in a week, likely to deflect criticism that Shoigu is not an involved wartime leader.

Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to seek to elevate the importance of the Wagner Group to establish himself as the central figure of Russia’s ultra-nationalist pro-war community.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi held talks with Russian officials on the creation of a security zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Russian forces continued to conduct limited counterattacks along the Kreminna-Svatove line and Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Kreminna area.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.

Russian forces are increasing security measures in Kherson Oblast and Crimea out of fear of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.

A senior Russian official denied claims of a second wave of mobilization amidst ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

Ukrainian partisans continued to target Russian occupation authorities.

+++

Kyiv Indep Telegram

⚡️G7 nations commit (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/g-7-nations-commit-32-billion-in-financial-support-for-ukraine) $32 billion in financial support for Ukraine.
A statement published by the German government revealed that the G7 has mobilized up to $32 billion for helping Ukraine in 2023 and will continue to make further progress.

⚡️Reuters: Wagner Group allegedly purchased (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-wagner-group-allegedly-purchased-north-korean-weapons-for-war-against-ukraine) North Korean weapons for war against Ukraine.
The U.S. intelligence assessment, which will be released publicly on Dec. 22, is that the arms delivered by North Korea will not significantly alter the dynamics of the war. The unnamed official nonetheless expressed concern that North Korea may be planning to provide more military equipment to Wagner in the future.

US imposes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-imposes-sanctions-on-russian-naval-entities-in-response-to-aggression-against-ukrainian-ports) sanctions on Russian naval entities in response to aggression against Ukrainian ports.

Ex-Roscosmos head Rogozin, Donetsk proxy leader injured in possible targeted strike (kyivindependent.com/national/ex-roscosmos-head-dmitrii-rogozin-donetsk-proxy-leader-injured-in-possible-targeted-strike)
Former Russian Deputy Prime Minister and ex-сhair of space agency Roscosmos Dmitrii Rogozin was wounded along with top proxy official Vitalii Khotsenko in an attack on a restaurant outside occupied Donetsk on the evening of Dec. 21.

⚡️US Senate approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-congress-approves-amendment-to-transfer-seized-assets-of-russian-oligarchs-to-ukraine) amendment to transfer seized assets of Russian oligarchs to Ukraine.
"This amendment would allow the Department of Justice through the Secretary of State to transfer proceeds from seized oligarchs' assets or other sanctioned entities to the people of Ukraine," U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said. "It will be a godsend to the long-suffering people of Ukraine. It will be a relief to the American taxpayer… It will be a bad day for oligarchs."

⚡️US Senate approves (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/us-senate-approves-more-than-40-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine) more than $40 billion in aid for Ukraine.
The U.S. Senate on Dec. 22 approved a $1.7 trillion spending bill for 2023, including more than $40 billion in aid for Ukraine.

[there seem to be so many commitments it's sometimes difficult to work out which ones overlap, and we only occasionally hear about the financial aid that actually arrives. Presumably it's getting there slowly! I do wonder if some aid is promised but not delivered, as in other crises, but in this case the commitment to Ukraine is so solid that hopefully it does]

⚡️Associated Press: Russia, China conduct joint naval drills (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-china-conduct-joint-naval-drills).
In Dec. 22, Russian and Chinese naval forces engaged in joint military drills in the East China Sea, the latest in a series of exercises that showcase the deepening defense ties between the two countries, Associated Press reported.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said the Varyag missile cruiser, the Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer, and two corvette warships from Russia’s Pacific Fleet participated in the drills, which began the day before.

⚡️Japan's Rakuten company to donate 500 generators (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/japans-rakuten-company-to-donate-500-generators-to-ukraine) to Ukraine.

⚡️Politico: Pentagon considers training (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-pentagon-considers-training-ukrainian-soldiers-on-patriot-in-us) Ukrainian soldiers on Patriot in US.

⚡️Official: Russia demolishes (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/official-russia-demolishes-half-of-mariupol-theatre) half of Mariupol theatre.

UNITED24 Telegram

The aircraft carrier cruiser "Admiral Kuznetsov", which is under repair, caught fire in the Russian Murmansk
"Admiral Kuznetsov" is the only ship of the Russian Navy, the flagship of the Navy and the Northern Fleet. [sometimes there are mistranslations, it's certainly not the only ship of the Russian Navy!]

The German concern Rheinmetall began deliveries of the first MAN HX 8x8 trucks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on behalf of the German government
A total of 26 such trucks are planned to be delivered.
These vehicles are used to transport platforms and containers with equipment or ammunition. The German concern stressed that the supply of equipment to Ukraine has already begun. [Germany is actually the 2nd biggest known donor of military equipment to Ukraine by recent figures, despite the reluctance over delivering Leopards and Scholz's pitiful attitude]

To liberate the Crimea, it is not necessary to throw tanks at the assault on Perekop. Former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, called for ATACMS missiles to be provided to Ukraine

⚡️Iran threatens Zelensky with 'end of strategic patience' over US congressional statements about drones
“We emphasize once again that the Islamic Republic of Iran has not exported any military equipment from either side for use in the war in Ukraine. We have always respected the territorial integrity of countries, including Ukraine, and Mr. Zelensky should know that Iran's strategic patience with baseless accusations will not be unlimited," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said. [so their relationship with the facts is the same as their relationship with Women's Rights].

Nearly 10,300 new graves discovered in Mariupol – Associated Press
Most of which are located in the cemetery in Stary Krym. The total area on which the graves are located is more than 51,500 square meters. [NEW graves!]

The first group of Ukrainian military has completed training in the Czech Republic as part of the EU mission
Next year, four more groups of military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be trained in the Czech Republic.

Putin spoke today in Russia. Here are the highlights of his speech:
▪️We endured, endured, endured, hoped for some peace agreements, now it turns out that we were ‘led by the nose’;
▪️Everything related to ‘special operation’ is a forced measure;
▪️About the possibility of greater involvement of the United States in the situation in Ukraine: I say — ‘wider and thicker,’ stink for a long time who are involved in this process;
▪️Russia's goal is to protect people in Ukraine;
▪️We are not going to arrange any provocations;
▪️Patriot is an old system and does not work like the S-300: "We can ‘click’ Patriot too”;
▪️Our goal is to end this war, we are striving for this;
▪️The resources of Western countries are on the verge of depletion, mainly Soviet weapons are supplied to Ukraine, we knocked them all out, burned them, this equipment is close to exhaustion.

❗️The Russian ruble fell to an almost eight-month low. Now it is 72 rubles/$.
The fall comes as concerns about the impact of sanctions on Russian oil and gas have increased the currency's losses by more than 15% this month, Reuters writes.

Russian war crimes: The New York Times journalists identified 22 servicemen of the 234th Airborne Assault Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces who killed Ukrainians in Bucha
Journalists of the publication spent several months in Bucha, communicating with local residents, collecting photos and videos of the city during the occupation, radio intercepts of conversations of Russian occupiers, etc.
www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000008299178/ukraine-bucha-russia-massacre-video.html [cant get the link to work myself]

💡In Ukraine, by the summer it is possible to stabilize the energy system and stop power outages if there are no shelling

Spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry Zakharova repeated a threat to Greece about the consequences in the event of the transfer of S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine

❗️White House says Biden is ready to meet with Putin if Russia shows serious willingness to negotiate

Zelensky's team intends to present a peace plan to end the war. They want to present it in February 2023, writes The Wall Street Journal
The publication notes that, according to military analysts, Europe's inability to supply Kyiv with a significant amount of weapons has limited Ukraine's ability to strike back at Russia.

⚡️ The European Union has officially approved a dynamic gas price ceiling of 180 euros per MWh (approximately 1.85 thousand euros per 1 thousand cubic meters), the restrictions will apply from February 15, 2023 —statement of the EU Council

The wounds of the former head of Roskosmos Dmitry Rogozin are more severe than it seemed at first, —collaborator Oleg Tsarev
“Dmitry Rogozin is seriously wounded, his condition is deteriorating. Everything is more difficult," Tsarev said.
Today it became known that doctors in Donetsk and Rostov-on-Don did not dare to perform a surgery on the wounded Rogozin because of its complexity. The ex-head of Roskosmos will be taken to Moscow, where a council of doctors will decide on a further treatment plan for the bearer of the ideas of the “Russian world”. [If he dies, this will be quite significant boost for Ukraine]

Live:Ukraine Telegram

telegra.ph/Russia-has-seized-the-initiative-and-is-actively-advancing-on-Bakhmut-Ukraine-has-to-throw-a-lot-of-forces-on-the-defense-We-ana-12-21

🇩🇰The Government of Denmark has allocated additional more than 42 million dollars for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine

More than 60 world-famous locations temporarily turned off the lights in solidarity with Ukraine. This is done as part of the #LightUpUkraine project, which aims to raise funds through the United24 platform to purchase generators for Ukrainian hospitals including Niagara falls and Sydny Opera House

⚡️⚡️⚡️The US Senate approved the draft budget for 2023 in the amount of $1.7 trillion, which includes the allocation of $44.9 billion to Ukraine.

German Federal Prosecutor's Office arrested an employee of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) on suspicion of treason. He is accused of spying for Russia.
German citizen Karsten L. was detained in Berlin. Searches were conducted in the apartment and at the place of work of the suspect and another person.
The BND employee is suspected of passing information obtained in the course of his professional activities to the Russian special service in 2022. Its content is a state secret.

[heartbreaking photos of tens, hundreds of Ukrainian flags over the graves of the 79th Special Brigade]

🇮🇹 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called on Italians to turn off gas and electricity for an hour a day in solidarity with Ukraine

Washington Post Telegram

Here are the latest battleground updates from Ukraine:

(www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/22/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates-zelensky/)- North Korea has sold, and delivered, infantry rockets and missiles directly to Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, a private army controlled by a close confidant of President Vladimir Putin’s that is playing an increasingly critical role in the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration said Thursday.

• The capital Kyiv is still seeing the worst power supply issues in Ukraine, the head of the local grid operator said overnight.

• Russia launched attacks in 16 settlements in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of southeastern Ukraine, the general staff of the country’s armed forces said in its daily update Thursday. According to its spokesman, Russia also launched six missile and 15 airstrikes over the past day, including on civilian “objects” in the Zaporizhzhia region. The Post is unable to verify the reports.

... and the personnel losses keep mounting ...

Zelenskyy has done a lot of travelling this week but he looks intensely strained and sad. The weight of keeping Ukraine in the headlines is on him; I hope he has people who can support him.

hehe oops. There have been a lot of elbows in the bed the last 3 weeks. Only belong to one small boy, but he does seem to develop as many elbows and knees as a giant spider when he creeps in!

Sat here weeping and shaking whilst I look at this tweet...how can anyone be so cruel???

"Zelensky is basically an ungrateful international welfare queen."
-Donald Trump Jr

Dear me, the orange coward does seem a little triggered by the arrival of a real man, doesn't he?

Or was that the junior orange? (Tangerine?) I lose track of people in series of junior's and III's.

that's Tangerine. He's a chip off the old block

Has anyone picked up on the reports of Putin using the term ‘war’ for the first time publicly. Feels like a small thing but then you think about how carefully constructed the narrative of the ‘special military operation’ has been and you realise the potential significance.

That was Trump junior. He and Zelensky are both 44 years old. Trump junior's most significant accomplishment was spending a drunken year as a ski bum, then getting a job in his dad's real estate company, so I suspect he can't help comparing himself to Zelensky and feeling like he came out on the short end. He's one of the former guy's many failures.

The WSJ ran a very long article yesterday about how the attempt to grow the Ru army revealed deep flaws. In short, before the war, they were trying to transition to a smaller, more professional force and reduced the infrastructure to train and equip new soldiers. They're not finding it easy to ramp things up. Also, before the war they couldn't meet their recruitment goals. There are knock-on economic effects. Conscription caused hundreds of thousands of military-aged men to flee the country. Conscripting hundreds of thousands more will cause labor shortages in the productive economy, including the parts that directly support the military. In short, the expansion goals are unrealistic for many reasons.

Sorry I've been AWOL for the last few days. Covid has visited chez Conduct, and I'm feeling a bit rough.

I hope all those chez Conduct feel better soon. Look after yourself!

Take care @MissConductUS, please - hope you and yours feel better soon.

Get well soon @MissConductUS.

Has anyone seen the comments from Peskov saying that Russia has made significant progress in ‘demilitarising’ Ukraine? It makes me think, (as this is so obviously BS), that I wouldn’t be surprised if one day Russia just announce they are done and pull out.

I hope so too.

There are contradictory rumours. Rumours of withdrawal around Melitopol, I think it was, but still intense attacks on Bakhmut. Prigozhin's off his rocker in most ways, but he and Surovikin don't seem the sort to withdraw easily and all the rest of the rhetoric from the Kremlin is of conquest.

If Peskov is laying the groundwork, it fits with the skeptics that the Kremlin started to allow on the TV.

So ... covering all bases.

HaAretz reporting on the Ukraine visitors to Israel - hope the link works, I don't have a subscription anymore:
www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2022-12-20/ty-article/.premium/downplaying-far-right-ties-ukrainian-war-hero-goes-on-israeli-publicity-binge/00000185-306c-dcac-a185-b8efb39e0000

Unlike the other links I have posted, which are to English only newspapers in Israel, HaAretz is primarily a Hebrew newspaper with an English edition. It certainly sees itself as the quality newspaper in Israel, and is notably seen as left wing and secular. I can also tell you from personal experience that its Hebrew is really hard (very sophisticated)- the tabloids are much easier for somebody whose first language is not Hebrew.

Sorry I've been AWOL for the last few days. Covid has visited chez Conduct, and I'm feeling a bit rough.

Get well soon and get some rest, MissConduct.

Hagrod · Today 10:12
Sat here weeping and shaking whilst I look at this tweet...how can anyone be so cruel???

^"Zelensky is basically an ungrateful international welfare queen."
-Donald Trump Jr^

The word ‘Queen’ seems particularly awful. Is he trying to imply something akin to the idea that Zelensky is some sort of weak and effeminate but puffed up diva? What outrageous language.

Calling anyone including women on ‘welfare welfare queens’ is nasty anyway.

How low can he sink? What an embarrassment.

If he knew anything about what so many Americans and Europeans felt and knew about Russia during the Cold War and the reasons for fearing Russia which are clearly being re-illustrated right now, he would see that we who are not living and fighting in Ukraine owe those people a huge debt - not least for showing us as humans what resistance and bravery look like.

I read about that guy @Naem Seems pretty remarkable.

I read a fairly in depth analysis of Azov and it seems the Nazi stuff was left behind years ago. Russia's playing on it to demonise Ukrainains of course.

Day 301, December 21st. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 22 December 2022

🔥 Patriot air defense:
One battery of Patriot system means covering one strategically important location and changing situation there. To have radical changes everywhere, 🇺🇦 Ukraine would need at least 3, preferably 4 batteries of Patriot. Each battery can cost up to $1 billion.
Patriot is good at intercepting ballistic missiles, like Iskander and 🇮🇷 Iranian ballistic missiles, which are hard to intercept by other air defense systems.
Possibly threat of 🇮🇷 Iran ballistic missiles is one of reasons for providing Patriot system. Expecting that this won’t be the only battery, if it works well, at least another battery could be provided.
Patriot’s range is usually 80km, up to 150km for best modifications, which likely won’t be provided. It can be well integrated in information exchange systems. Targets can be passed to NASAMS or IRIS-T, increasing total effectiveness. For example Kyiv which has already good air defense, could get just 2 launchers out of 6 in battery, other districts getting the rest. So, in a way, it’s more than just standalone air-defense battery, but it’s not completely game-changing.

🔥 ATACMS:
Arestovych is skeptical, if 🇺🇸U.S. has decided, if they want fast defeat of 🇷🇺, and ATACMS won’t be provided before that. It’s not that 🇺🇸U.S. is cruel and wants deaths of 🇺🇦 Ukrainians, but they don’t have plans for post-Putin 🇷🇺, or world after collapse of 🇷🇺. 🇺🇸 U.S. will never let situation develop unpredictably.
Fast collapse of 🇷🇺 could lead to world much worse for everyone, including 🇺🇦 Ukraine. For example Prigozhin could get to power, 20 of Kadyrov-like warlords getting nuclear weapons uncontrollably.
However previously impossible things are happening. Patriots were out of the question before, now they are being supplied. As Churchill said “Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else”. The same will happen with ATACMS, 🇺🇦 Ukraine will at some point get M1A1 Abrams, F16, F/A-18 Hornet and so on, but of course we wish for much sooner.

🔥 Other weapons:
Some serious nomenclature, previously unavailable:
 100k 125mm tank shells – it’s a lot, and 🇺🇦 Ukraine is using tanks as counter-battery and field artillery, using a lot of ammo.
 45k 152mm artillery shells, 20k 122mm artillery shells, 50k 122mm rockets for BM21 Grad
Most of that ammunition is for old soviet equipment, Arestovych has no idea where 🇺🇸U.S. got it.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is still using a lot of soviet weapons, and if those sources don’t dry up, situation in front will significantly change for the better.
500 guided artillery shells, which will guarantee 450 precise hits
37 Cougar armored vehicles, 120 HMMWVs – a brigade of wheeled vehicles.

🔥 U.S. politics and Zelensky’s visit:
🇺🇸U.S. dilemma is in significant opposition between Republicans and Democrats, and year 2023 is going to have pre-election taste. Republicans have 4 main blocks, Democrats have 3 directions including ultra-left (about 25%, which is significant issue for Democrats).
🇺🇸 U.S. internal politics are bordering hidden civil war. Some Republicans are convinced that BLM, ultra-left are much worse than Putin. In almost religious belief they think that Putin is conservative, but they want to destroy world, and better to have Putin.
🇺🇦 Zelensky has the task to convince Americans, that we are defenders of western values, but Putin is just a criminal, pretending to have some orthodox concepts. This should be heard in Zelensky’s speech.
No further details of Zelensky travels can be provided, but likely he would visit some other countries.
Zelensky has proposal for world security summit, new model of future security for all nations, based on 10 points presented at G20 summit in Bali.
Nobody in the world has vision of future, and Zelensky is presenting exactly that. 🇺🇦 Ukraine is preparing for end of war, which is still far, but needs to be strategically planned.

🔥 Russia plans:
🇷🇺 is planning what to do with their new 200k solders. During last 3 months, 🇷🇺 has lost 60k at Bakhmut and Soledar, not capturing anything. Even if they capture Bakhmut, there are 5 more large cities just in Donetsk district.
Putin is rushing between 🇷🇺 General staff, Ministry of Defense, 🇧🇾 Belarus, trying to understand level of preparedness, participation of possible ally, weapons supplies and manufacturing, what to trust, whom to trust, etc. In the end deciding where to attack, and with what forces, which is very hard decision. On 24th of February they had illusion of superiority, now there is no illusion. 200k solders is not a lot. If thrown at some directions, they can cause significant issues and losses for 🇺🇦 Ukraine, perhaps even loss of territory (like 2km near Bakhmut during 3 months). Even if promising regain of initiative, in perspective of Zelensky’s meeting with Biden, that plan can be thrown out. Putin can’t stop attacking, as that means end to his political figure, but existing attacks don’t succeed. So 🇷🇺 is planning some sort of pretending to attack, to be feel more comfortable in fire pit.