Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Just watched a Steve Rozenberg piece for the bbcc on twitter in the article there's an interview with a pro Russian TV presenter.

He says:
"The temporary withdrawal from Kherson to prevent a surrender is not a defeat. Even though a lot of people in the West would like to see this as a defeat, it's not. Because sometimes you need to go back one step to go forward ten."

In terms of digging in, all that may be irrelevant. The war isn't about Ukraine. It's about domestic power in Russia. Putin is no longer seen as a master strategist by the oligarchs, and that's his issue just as much as HIMARS.

Walter Report at walterreport
russians blew up all heat-generating facilities in Kherson.

The city has centralized heating and fully relies on it. Now it’s gone.

During winter temperature in Ukrainian steppe drops down to 30° below zero.

russians want to kill even more Ukrainian civilians by doing this

Yes, you need to go back because you got your arsenal kicked by Ukraine. They dress it up as if it was their decision to retreat. It wasn't, they were forced to do it.

Russian state media is claiming this is to "save lives". How about not starting the war in the first place, huh?

Nexta at nexta_tv
It is being reported that a Ukrainian flag is hanging in the center of Kherson, probably attached by local partisans.

Arse!

Tim White AT TWMCltd
The centre of Kherson sees a Ukraine flag for the first time in months.

Partisans are now roaming freely around the city.

TBF, they got a lot of their arsenal kicked as well.

And quite a lot of their arsenal nicked.

Don't who it was (yesterday morning R4) but from a Russian expert who is in and out of Moscow.
His take on talks was its political suicide for Zelensky to give up land or promised aims..... equally if Putin cannot show he has "won" then there are plenty in the Kremlin more murderous than him...

I found this quite scary.

Good news the yanks are giving further military aid, inc air defence.

Yep. Pre 2014 borders, Ukraine to join NATO (if they choose to), Russia to fuck off back to it's own borders and stay there.

This is a time for Ukraine to hold firm on it's boundaries and to assert it's autonomy. The rest of the world needs to continue to step up and support them in this.

Not as high personnel losses as expected after last night's rumours about Kherson, but it could be that it takes a day or two to count.
One helicopter down.

They need daylight to assess the level of fish in barrel.

Antonovsky bridge destoryed by Russians

The sight of the bridge makes me weirdly think of the old skool Milky way advert!!!

The Red Car and Blue Car song
the red car and the blue car had a race
all that red could do was stuff his face
he eats everything he sees
from trucks to prickly trees
but smart old blue he took the milky way

he's looking for a chocolate treat
fluffy and light
cos he knows it won't spoil his app-e-tite

mm mm MMMM!

oh no! the bridge has gone, poor old red just can't carry on
but smart old blue, he took the milky way

In my defence its been a long week...

Ideally 100% agree but Russia can't accept that and the longer this goes on (and Russia has the means to launch missile strikes from afar for many years & we've seen what they go for) the more civilians are killed and the more of Ukraine is destroyed.

I don't know how it will end.....all wars do... i just hope the US keeps up its support, especially air defence... the rest of NATO can't do it without the Americans.

Warmonitor at warmonitor3
Yesterday there was several reports of Russian soldiers hiding in houses.

The cleaning of Kherson city will be a methodical and gradual process

I sincerely doubt they are interested in fighting to the death.

Osinttechnical at osinttechnical
Russian forces destroyed the Kherson Television Tower before retreating.

Plague of fucking locusts.

Re - independent Donbas, they (a significant proportion of population there) wanted this back in 2014, but since then what used to make the region wealthy and powerful (and very very corrupt) has been destroyed - coal mines flooded, steel plants and other heavy industries looted, all this happened in 2014-15.

To restore Donbas to what it used to be would take decades and mega investments. Russia clearly had never any interest in investing in this region, their goal was to create unrest, cause divisions among Ukrainians and destabilise Ukraine as much as possible before the finally invaded. I feel the way things are, Donbas’s best chances to thrive again would be within Ukraine but they will have to make that choice themselves, when the war is over.

It's vicious and cruel.

But that's come to be expected from the Russian Army.

They just don't seem to understand that it deepens resolve not erodes it because it's a very clear demonstration of why Ukrainians do not want to cede to Russian rule.

RedToothBrush - Today 09:04
Re: The Milky Way ad ‘Blue Car and Red Car’
and the Antonovsky Bridge destroyed by the Russians.

I was tempted to look up the old Milky Way advertisement you mentioned, and it seemed so apt I thought other people might like to see it,
m.youtube.com/watch?v=tsNP7IqB1rY

Mb76· Today 09:35
Re - independent Donbas, they (a significant proportion of population there) wanted this back in 2014, but since then what used to make the region wealthy and powerful (and very very corrupt) has been destroyed - coal mines flooded, steel plants and other heavy industries looted, all this happened in 2014-15

To restore Donbas to what it used to be would take decades and mega investments. Russia clearly had never any interest in investing in this region, their goal was to create unrest, cause divisions among Ukrainians and destabilise Ukraine as much as possible before the finally invaded. I feel the way things are, Donbas’s best chances to thrive again would be within Ukraine but they will have to make that choice themselves, when the war is over.

It is always so interesting to learn about this region from you Mb76. I was wondering if you know to what extent the people living there now are the same pre-2014 inhabitants and their children as before, or have a lot more Russians moved there since 2014?

I think, if I recall what you (?) said earlier in this thread, there were always a lot of Russians in the Donbas even before 2014 as they had migrated there for work where they were well paid and felt superior to the Ukrainians. But maybe I am mistaken. Was this before or post 1991 - or maybe both?

They did vote to be Ukrainian in 1991 though.

Shit. That's a humanitarian crisis, right there, without counting anything else.
The UK has just frozen £billions of RU assets - any chance we can use them to sort this out?

From Trent Telenko:

This is more information confirming what has been shared with me.
Unless the Russians blow the Nova Kakhovka dam, the next 24 hours are going to be filled with images of masses of artillery-mutilated Russian escape columns in and near Kherson.
My G-d have mercy on their souls.

twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1590863054266318852?s=20&t=_dpNoLxmdptqAhkbdVjZSQ

This war is destroying two countries. Ukraine can rebuild. I don't see how Russia can recover from the level of losses it has forced on its male population. Not just the men who went to war but also the number who fled it.

It's also worth reading Noah Smith's Substack piece on Russia's position as a superstate, today. He has written a good summary of just how staggeringly bad the war has gone for them and some of the geopolitical fall-out. One state actor to watch in the future is India.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-world-has-progressed-beyond-the?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

The U.S. stripped Russia of the status of a country with market economy - Reuters. Countries with this status are not subject to a number of US foreign trade restrictions. (Does anyone understand the implications of this?)

It's an international trade status they had to have to join the WTO. It creates the presumption that the goods they export are being sold above the cost of production and not subject to anti-dumping duties. The change will make it easier to add additional import duties on anything they export if the importing country wishes to do so. It's another economic sanction.