Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Fair enough..and thanks for the reminder about the water.

Personal opinion ( since I have no real skin in the game) this is probably a once in multi generational opportunity to attrit (as our American friends would say) the Russian armed forces to the point where they will no longer present a threat to any of their neighbours for the imaginable future.......I'm not inclined to give Putin any moral anything...

I would have thought President Zelensky would find it very tough to "sell" anything that even hints at a concession to the Ukrainian population - be interested to hear the views of anyone with connections in that area.

Here's a Maxar image of the damage to the dam at Nova Kakhovka that is currently circulating among images showing the Russians have been blowing bridges.

Three sections of the top of the structure, carrying the road crossing, have been blown and there is probably further damage below. The turbulence suggests to me that there is some extra water getting through here that wouldn't ordinarily do so, but it is not serious enough to compromise the whole system. if it was then Crimean irrigation would be affected.

Thanks @MMBaranova - I knew I'd read something about it in these threads. That's why I asked my ignorant question - I knew someone would answer

I presume that's why breaching the Nova Kakhovka Dam (which remains my big fear ) is a double edged sword for Russia. It might take out some Ukrainian troops but it would fuck Crimea

Cross-posted @MMBaranova

This image shows the dam area looking from the north bank to the south bank, back in happier times.

The dam causes a massive lake to form all the way up to Zaporizhzhya. The drop from upstream to downstream isn't massive. The dam structure includes the HEP system and there is (was) a roadway across it. On the far bank you can see the linear lock system that allows navigation on the Dnipro and towards the top left the exit point of water towards Crimea and the S Kherson irrigation system.

The Russians have stopped the dam being used as a roadway as they have retreated to the south bank. So long as the water is held back and they hold the south bank Crimean irrigation can continue.

Image referred to...

Here's the lake that makes a road crossing impossible between Nova Kakhovka and Zaporizhzhya.

For me it sounds like some desperate Kremlin ploy so that they can keep Crimea.

Use a conspiracy theorist to start a rumour, then use bots to spread it everywhere so that gullible people believe it.

That doesn't make it a truth, no matter how many times people post it, or how many tabloids fail to fact check.

Acceptable terms are Russia getting the fuck back to it's pre 2014 borders and never invading another country again. No appeasement, just holding the boundaries of acceptability.

Fortunately the people who post on these threads have been intelligent enough for it not to be an issue.

mobile.twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1591180694583222285 Iran has suspended arms sales to the Russian federation

Why does Ukraine have to give Russia a win win? Sorry Russia you lose. Don’t be afraid of Russia. What are they going to do. Say bad words on tv. They are weak. Now is the time for Ukraine to take what is theirs and win. Not sure why there is so much tiptoeing around and concessions. This is a war. Russia has zero respect for negotiations or treaties. It s a rogue state intent on genocide.

If true this is good news, and significantZ

Hancock. My view on acceptable terms is that the scum get the fuck out of Ukraine, offer up their war criminals for trial and respect 2014 borders.

If they do that, the Ukrainians will stop humiliating them further.

That would be acceptable for me anyway

Prefer confirmation from more than one source on that one.

This view looks upstream, again from happier times. The roadway is to the front of the structure and skirts the building on the right (is that where the electricity generation happens? - I have no idea). At the back of the structure is a parallel rail line.

Water headed to Crimea is in that top right area.

What happens when the Ukrainian forces reach the north bank (if they haven't already) and the Russians are presumably dug in on the south we wait to see. There are reports that there are evacuations of civilians from Nova Kakhovka by the Russians.

Do a deal now with Russia? But, but... the 1994 Budapest Memorandum signed by Ukraine, Russia, UK and USA. It is often talked about and sometimes misrepresented.

Select a language and scroll down to read all the points 1 to 6. We've been here before. Russian deals are worthless deals. Quitting all occupied territories within 24 hours plus Putin on a plane to The Hague might be credible. At a pinch.

UN Docs link

totally agree @MMBaranova

Just how can anyone think that Russia would honour any deal? Do we think this current situation this week changes anything about their ability to honour a promise?

@Muminabun I didn’t say Ukraine had to give Russia a win. What I meant was that there will need to be a least the perception in Russian of some kind of success.

I completely get the point that Russia in all fairness should get the hell out of Ukraine completely to pre 2014 borders. However how many men and women have to die before this will happen? Another 10,20,50,100k. What number is acceptable to people to ensure a complete failure by Russia. Civilians, Ukranians and Russian conscripts are all losing their lives here. Over the winter lines will mainly become static and countless lives will be lost via shelling where no side is gaining anything during the winter.

I think regardless Putin would not be in charge of Russia in 5 years time whether to do with his health or some sort of coup so I think any future aggression even if it were to happen would not be at the hand of Putin.

Me too. I think it's more likely that Iran can't produce the drones and missiles on the schedule Russia wants, not a political decision to step back from Russia. Iran also has to consider it's own defense needs.

Either way, if Russia can't get a steady supply of drones, this is a good thing.

Russian site has a stock image from inside the HEP plant at Nova Kakhovka. It says it is still working (probable) and that the Ukrainians are shelling it (oh come on).

A Novorossiya site

I also got sucked into an Orthodox post suggesting that losing the unnecessary lands was a sacrifice worth making to keep the necessary ones. '...after the battle for Kherson and Berislav, after moving to the left bank of the Dnieper, it should become easier for us. We must get rid of the superfluous. From desires and passions, from the abundance of property acquired by over-reaching. We were fortunate. We thank God for everything.'

I'm putting this alongside the list of successes reported today by the Russian authorities which include 'the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in certain areas amounted to no more than ten kilometres'.

And finally, the pro-Russian Rybar mappers have this wonderful graphic inset in their main map for the day.'

@Hancox432 what matters is if Russia is aggressive, and the evidence is that indeed it is. Whether Putin is in charge or someoe else doesnt really matter.

There could be even more aggressive leaders than Putin eg patrushev or Prigozhin or some of the others whose star is rising.

The people who know russia best, the East Europeans who lived under occupation, say that the best way to handle Russia to minimise long term problems is to forcefully defeat them thoroughly and then contain them.

Since they know Russia best and since Russia very clearly holds no value to its agreements, they are the ones we should listen to.

...the list of successes reported today by the Russian authorities which include 'the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in certain areas amounted to no more than ten kilometres

Ooooh the Russian soldiers must be very proud

Less sarcastically - it seems that the Russians are making gains elsewhere, very slowly. A town fell to them, though its late and I can't remember the name

Why?

Because otherwise the whole thing could collapse inwards and we will have a totally out of control situation.

I recall seeing an interview with a former Russian politician who now lives in the west, fairly early in the war. He was amused by the idea of Putin needing an off-ramp from the west. His view was that Putin was perfectly capable of coming up with his own off-ramp when and if he needed one.

I'm not convinced that the winter will greatly slow down the Ukrainian military. Logistics might slow them down a bit. I think that once the ground freezes, they'll be on the move again. Their challenge will be that the targets will be harder. Kharkiv and Kherson were relatively easy pickings.