Day 260, November 10th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 11 November 2022
🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson:
Snihurivka is controlled by 🇺🇦. A lot of gray zone on map, indicating 🇷🇺 has left first line of defense, their second line is 7-10km away, current positions about 12-15km away from previous contact line. Rumors of 🇺🇦 forces within Chornobaivka.
Real proof of 🇷🇺 retreat is them blowing up bridges. If they intended to remain, bridges would be spared.
Rumors of negotiations and cease-fire during retreat are false. Right now 🇺🇦 is heavily shelling Antonivka bridge, but there is still lack of heavy weapons, not all targets can be hit. It’s not reasonable to waste HIMARS missile on 3 infantrymen. Yesterday two columns and command post were destroyed near Antonivka bridge.
🔥 Pavlivka:
🇷🇺 brought reserves, situation became more complicated. Pavlivka is still in 🇺🇦 control, 🇷🇺 touched south.
🔥 Bakhmut:
no changes near Bakhmut, small 🇷🇺 advances near Opytne and Ivanhrad, intensity near Soledar decreased.
🔥 Bilohorivka, Kriminna, Svatove:
🇷🇺 attempts to advance, no success. 🇺🇦 has fire-control over road from Svatove to Kreminna
🔥 Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv:
periodic shelling across border, including tanks and rocket launchers. Active battles in 850km out of 1300km of total front-line.
🔥 Dnipro as barrier:
Surovikin planning to set up defenses on left [east] bank of Dnipro river. There are no unsurpassable barriers in modern war, but forcing river is heavy operation, and likely 🇺🇦 will choose another unexpected time and place.
At operational level, indirect actions are always better, contrary to frontal assault, as 🇷🇺 are doing. 🇺🇦 doesn’t need to cross two bridges, it has million of other options. The more 🇷🇺 digs in, the better for 🇺🇦. Their entrenchments will still be in artillery range.
🔥 Goodwill gesture:
Putin addressed “Ukrainian partners”, and mentioned goodwill gesture. Previous goodwill gestures from Kyiv, Sumy did not had any impact.
🔥 U.S. position:
🇺🇸 State department encouraging 🇺🇦 to signal for negotations, waiting for 🇷🇺 to back up their regular announcements.
Jake Sullivan: 🇷🇺 withdrawal from some areas does not mean the Ukraine war is concluding.
Biden will not meet any 🇷🇺 representative during G20 meeting.
Most of those announcements are likely result of elections, various groups attempting show reason.
At the same day, new package of weapons is announced.
Nobody should be worried about negotiations – such announcements are usually intended for internal audience of respective country.
🔥 Kherson bridges:
From the amount of 🇺🇦 attacks on retreating 🇷🇺 vehicles on Antonivka bridge and Kahovka dam, the objective appears to not allow 🇷🇺 retreat. Destroyed army is better than retreated army.
🔥 Weapons:
🇺🇸 sending 4 Avenger SAM systems, 100 HMMWV , 400 grenade launchers.
Biden mentioned two types of missiles, 🇺🇦 promised 160 miles range [257km], which would be 3-fold increase to M142 HIMARS range.
Pentagon announcing ammo supplies for M142 HIMARS, 22k 155mm artillery shells, 500 high-precision artillery shells, 10k 120mm mortar rounds, 20m bullets
🇪🇸 Spain sending 4 MIM-23 HAWK air-defense systems, 🇬🇧 U.K. supplying 1000 missiles.
This set hints offensive with close range air defense against 🇷🇺 front-line aviation.
🇳🇱 Netherlands allocated 100m for 🇺🇦 defense.
🔥 Russian mobilized:
There are lots of videos of problems for 🇷🇺 draftees. However the problems are still not in significant quantity, they will accumulate during next 2-3 months ™, before causing avalanche of reactions.
There are at least 100 of deaths per day.
🔥 NATO:
🇺🇦 won’t be accepted until end of war, but it’s de facto already a member, and getting assistance. 🇺🇦 will be one of most powerful members, with significant battle experience, that’s hard to obtain elsewhere.