Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Strictly speaking, it's not a lie. The Russians have a very good idea of where the dead men and destroyed equipment are, so not really lost are they?

I know it's the DM but interesting peace about supposed surrender terms offered to Putin. Which would involve him give all annexed areas apart from Crimea which would remain a demilitarised zone with Crimea not being discussed again until 2029.

Im so worried about the news that Russia have destroyed the heating plant that heats Kherson buildings. How are the people going to cope when winter hits, no heating and power and water. I wish the Russaons could get a a taste of their own medicine.

I saw this however I understand the Russian expert they’re referencing is a recognised conspiracy theorist unfortunately.

They will. I think that while Ukraine is in very serious financial trouble, a lot of humanitarian aid will be flowing Kherson's way soon.

More worried about Mariupol tbh. And the little villages that the Russians have ruined.

Lots of other tabloids jumping on the story now. Would be interested to hear others thoughts on if it would be considered acceptable terms. There are many caveats like Ukraine not joining NATO for 7 years and a 60 mile line on the borders of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia that wouldn't allow any heavy weaponry in it. Would also include a caveat that Russians won't be charged with Crimes regarding the conflict which could be the breaking point for Ukraine.

Ukraine not being allowed to join NATO for 7 years would give Russia plenty of time to rebuild its forces, learn its lessons and have another go at invading Ukraine, knowing that NATO can't/won't get directly involved

Sorry I did forget to mention the caveat the Ukraine would have security garuntees from the UK, US and the EU about any further invasion

I think with security guarantees it’s an interesting concept. I don’t however think at this moment Ukraine would settle for signing over Crimea, and frankly why should they?

I don't believe it.

Russia has some highly skilled troops left but relatively few. Ukraine is absolutely adamant about getting its territories back.

The one thing that no conspiracy theorists cover (as far as I'm aware) is exactly how Russia would handle the fallout from having to retreat back to its borders due to a possible agreement.

There is talk now of overthrowing Putin. More losses will be unmanageable.

( the poor, poor man must be eating gall now. How he overstepped himself).

I said earlier on this thread that Crimea will be a Kremlin redline and I really believe that. I don’t think that Ukraine should have to hand it over, and we have already had the referendum debate but I am struggling to see a win:win situation here. Putin’s life pretty much depends on the retention of Crimea at this stage.

As someone said upthread, at the rate it's going, Ukraine will be able to cut off water and transport links to Crimea, at which point, it's moot if Russia owns it or not.

Him who has the power to destroy something, controls it.

It won’t be moot if they decide for whatever reason it’s one humiliation too far.

And I desperately hope I am wrong.

Ukrainian supermarket chain АТБ is already delivering food Kherson apparently.

I'm sure someone more knowledgeable will be able to explain to me but if Ukraine, having re-taken Kherson, is now able to cut off power and water to Crimea, surely they could have done so at any time between 2014 and February 2022?

Or did they choose not to as that would have antagonised Russia?

the caveat the Ukraine would have security garuntees from the UK, US and the EU about any further invasion

To have any effect and to avoid a repeat of February's events the guarantees would have to be a promise of direct intervention by NATO forces if Russian forces cross the border into Ukraine...and that would pretty much make Ukraine a NATO member.

If the guaranteed support is any less than that then we risk being right back where we are now in a few years time (prettybird's point).

Crimea is a sizeable landmass, bigger than Wales...I know road/rail routes into/out of could well be compromised by the loss of Kherson but could Ukraine actually cut off power and water?

Presumably they like everyone else will have believed the publicity about the Russian army and wouldn’t have wanted to tangle with it.

Oh I agree it essentially makes Ukraine a defacto member but just means NATO troops or weapons can't be on Ukranian soil unless such and attack took place.

I really this is a delicate balance hear between Russia losing in western eyes but will claim some sort of morale victory in Russia. Ukraine regaining it's land back including land that they were not in complete control of between 2014 and Feb 22 with the Donbass. With Russia's military being seriously weakened. Part of me thinks if there is going to be some negotiated settlement than this is going to be the sort of scenario we are looking at.

Just interesting this coming out now along with a complete withdrawal from Kherson and alot of chatter about negotiations.

Or did they choose not to as that would have antagonised Russia?

Probably: Ukraine & Ukraine's army was in a different state in 2014 and everyone thought Russia had the world's third leading military. Right now, the Russian army is demoralised, untrained or dead with half its usable tanks gone. It could use nuclear weapons but the western response would definitive.

From what I have heard (caveats; not an expert, happy to be wrong), Crimea is served by water from Ukraine (which is why the Kherson dam is a big deal), a trainline (which I don't think Ukraine controls...yet) and a pair of natural land bridges, plus the Russian route.

There have been hints that Xi JInping has made it clear that nuclear threats have to stop.

It isn't certain about that but the nuclear rhetoric from Russia has toned down, even at this point of a massive loss for them.

>I'm sure someone more knowledgeable will be able to explain to me but if Ukraine, having re-taken Kherson, is now able to cut off power and water to Crimea, surely they could have done so at any time between 2014 and February 2022?

I refer you to my thread on the Crimea Irrigation canal etc. whenever I posted it. Ukraine cut off water to Crimea after the annexation by Russia by blocking it in S Kherson Oblast.

The Russian invasion this year let Russia speedily remove the blockage and better irrigate Crimea. Let me search...

This might link you:

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4653311-ukraine-invasion-part-33?reply=120896235&utm_source=thread&utm_medium=share

Presumably Russia realised the vulnerability of Crimea being cut off and so built Kerch Bridge. Kherson was the first city the Russians took intact without bombing it to oblivion. They must have prioritised Kherson.

Banksies in Ukraine.