ISW Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces steadily advanced in Kherson Oblast on November 10 as Russian forces conduct a withdrawal to the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River.
The Russian withdrawal will take some time to complete, and fighting will continue throughout Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian troops advance and come up against pre-prepared Russian defensive lines, especially around Kherson City.
ISW does not assess the fighting in Ukraine will halt or enter a stalemate due to winter weather, despite faulty Western assumptions.
Ukraine holds the initiative and is in the process of securing a major victory in Kherson. A ceasefire would provide the Kremlin with the pause it desperately needs to reconstitute Russian forces.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is increasingly wrestling with St. Petersburg officials over expanding Wagner Group recruitment in the city.
Ukrainian Air Force Command spokesperson Yuriy Ignat stated that Russian force will likely slow the pace of their campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk.
Russian forces began constructing second line fortifications in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
Russian citizens continue to oppose Russiaβs war in Ukraine through protest, social media dissent, and desertions from the military.
Russian mobilization efforts are channeling personnel to the Wagner group.
Russian occupation officials are continuing efforts to erode Ukrainian national identity while mobilizing residents in Russian-occupied territories.
Note: ISW expanded comments:
Russian forces so far appear to be withdrawing in relatively good order, and Ukrainian forces are making expected gains without routing Russian forces, as they did in the Kharkiv counteroffensive.
It seems from the Twittersphere that they may, unusually, have been wrong about this!
The major Ukrainian victory underway in Kherson Oblast will not be Ukraineβs last.
An outright statement.
+++
Things have been moving very fast but from the Kyiv Independent & Ukraine: Live yesterday:
π£οΈDefense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov believes that Russia will need at least a week to withdraw its troops from Kherson. He added that the occupants keep about 40 thousand servicemen in Kherson region, including in Kherson.
π£οΈThe United States does not put pressure on Ukraine in negotiations on the conflict, - White House adviser Jake Sullivan.
πPentagon: US is assembling a new "Ramstein" on military aid to Ukraine.
The seventh meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine with the participation of more than 50 countries will take place next Wednesday.
In addition, he stated that "there will be no hesitation, no flag raising, no flinching in the support of the United States
β‘οΈ Zelensky: If Russia blows up Kakhovka dam, it will be war declaration to whole world.
β‘οΈ Erdogan calls Russia's retreat from Kherson 'positive decision.'
Erdogan said he would continue to maintain telephone diplomacy with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. Turkey's "mediation work continues uninterruptedly," Erdogan said, adding that he can't predict when the war will be over.
β‘οΈ Zaluzhnyi: Ukraine liberates 41 settlements in Kherson Oblast since Oct. 1.
β‘οΈ UK freezes $20.5 billion worth of Russian assets.
β‘οΈ Lukashenko's regime bans 'Long live Belarus!' salute, calls it Nazi.
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lukashenkos-regime-bans-long-live-belarus-salute-calls-it-nazi)Belarusian authorities have recognized the country's patriotic motto "Long live Belarus!" as a Nazi symbol.
β‘οΈ Financial Times: Russia's retreat from Kherson gives Ukraine firepower control over roads from Crimea.
β‘οΈAmnesty International accuses Russia of committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine. "Russia's actions of forced displacement and deportation are reprehensible and constitute a war crime," Amnesty International Secretary General Agnes Callamard said on Nov. 10. [my my my, they just realised?]
β‘οΈAnnual inflation in Ukraine reaches 26.6% in October.
β‘οΈNorway plans to allocate nearly $ 144 million to support Ukraine.
β‘οΈGeneral Staff: Russian forces strengthening their positions on Dnipro's east bank.
β‘οΈMedia: Russian troops reportedly blow up TV center, destroy infrastructure in Kherson.
The Russian forces also reportedly blew up a regional energy facility, a local publication Most reported on Nov. 10.
According to the report, there are problems with mobile service in the city, it only works near the Antonivsky bridge.
β‘οΈSpain to hand over two additional Hawk air defense systems to Ukraine.
Spain to dispatch two more Hawk surface-to-air missile launchers in addition to the four it has already sent to Ukraine, Spanish Defence Minister Margarita Robles said on Nov. 10.
β‘οΈUS announces new $400 million security aid package to Ukraine, air defense included.
U.S. Department of Defense announced the authorization of security assistance valued at up to $400 million "to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs."
The new package will include air defense contributions, such as missiles for Hawk air defense systems and four Avenger air defense systems. Additional ammunition for HIMARS' are also included in the package.
β‘οΈMinister: Poland hands over 1,570 Starlink systems to Ukraine.
β‘οΈBloomberg: Russia is covertly checking its bomb shelters.
Russian state workers are quietly checking basements and other shelters not used since Soviet times, people familiar with the efforts told Bloomberg.
Inspections and cleanups of civil-defense facilities, which were typically built in the basements of hospitals, apartment buildings, schools and government offices in the Soviet era, are taking place in cities across the country, sources told the journalists
β‘οΈSBU has uncovered 700 collaborators since Feb. 24.
β‘οΈUkraine's military targets 2 concentrations of Russian firepower on southern front line.
β‘οΈWSJ: South Korea to sell Ukraine-bound munitions to US.
The U.S. will purchase artillery shells from South Korea that are destined for Ukrainian Armed Forces, U.S. officials familiar with the deal told the Wall Street Journal.
South Korea will sell 100,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition that will be delivered to Ukraine, "enough to supply Ukraineβs artillery units for at least several weeks of intensive combat."
π· Temporarily Occupied Crimea, Russians started digging new trenches near Chongar checkpoint
πͺπΈSpanish military will train Ukrainian snipers - Spanish media Vozpopuli.
This will take place at the military base in Toledo under a program that provides for the Spanish military to train Ukrainian snipers.
US has evidence that Russia is preparing to test nuclear-tipped torpedo - CNN
π£οΈZelensky: Russian losses in the war are 10 times higher than Ukrainian ones.
πΊπΈThe U.S. stripped Russia of the status of a country with market economy - Reuters.
Countries with this status are not subject to a number of US foreign trade restrictions.
(Does anyone understand the implications of this?)
No info yet on Ru losses. Today's is going to be especially interesting, though perhaps it will take a day or two for the losses to be counted.
π€Fans of Banksy, the British street art star, are debating whether the artist could have painted graffiti in Ukraine on the ruins of a house in Borodyanka.
The debate erupted after photographer Ed Ram, who works in Ukraine for foreign publications, posted a photo from the Kyiv region on his Instagram.