Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Highly recommend 'Mariupol, the People's Story' - currently on Iplayer. Absolutely heart breaking.

Wonderful!

I wonder how far the abortion catastrophe was part of that.

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the east (left) bank on November 9.

The battle of Kherson is not inherently over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase— prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely.

Many prominent voices in the Russian milblogger space sided with Surovikin and lauded the decision as a necessary one, indicating that Russian leadership has learned from the information effects of the disastrous Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast in mid-September.

Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on November 9, likely to discuss the sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia and other forms of cooperation

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting along the Svatove-Kremmina highway and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces made territorial gains northeast of Kherson City and continued their successful interdiction campaign.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian federal subjects are struggling to pay mobilized personnel, and the Russian military is struggling to provision them.

Relatives of mobilized personnel continue to protest lack of payment and poor conditions.

Russian occupation deputy head of Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov was killed in a claimed car accident in rear Kherson Oblast the day Russian forces announced their withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast.

Occupation authorities in rear areas are likely increasing law enforcement crackdowns and filtration measures amid fears of Ukrainian counteroffensives after the November 9 withdrawal announcement

(the ISW's admiration for Ukraine comes over clearly now and then =) )

+++

⚡️Official: Russia attacks Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with cluster munitions.
Russian troops hit Dnipropetrovsk Oblast's Kryvyi Rih District with Smerch and Tornado S multiple rocket launchers, Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the Kryvyi Rih military administration, said on Nov. 9.
The Convention on Cluster Munitions prohibited all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster munitions in 2008. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have joined the Convention.

⚡️Dutch soldiers to train Ukrainian military personnel.

The Netherlands plans to send 50-100 instructors to train the Ukrainian military. Dutch personnel will train Ukrainian soldiers in tactical medicine, explosive ordnance disposal, and tactical and technical training in weapons systems. They will also provide training for staff officers of battalions and brigades, according to Ollongren.

⚡️Bloomberg: Putin to skip G-20 summit to avoid potential confrontation with world leaders.
Russia plans to send Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to the summit instead, according to one of Bloomberg’s sources.

⚡️Economy Minister: Recession in Ukraine more dramatic than expected.
Due to the destruction of civilian infrastructure by Russia, Ukraine’s gross domestic product will likely fall by 39% in 2022, compared to the previous forecast of 35%, Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko told Die Zeit.
As a response to the recession, Kyiv is taking steps to downsize the government, she said.
Svyrydenko also said that she is exploring the possibility of privatizing small state-owned companies.

⚡️Ukraine says Russia's negotiation offers are ‘another smokescreen.’

⚡️NBC: Some US and Western officials think neither side can win Ukraine-Russia war

⚡️UK to provide 1,000 additional surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.
Defense Secretary Ben Wallace announced on Nov. 9 that the U.K. will soon complete the delivery of approximately 1,000 additional surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine's Armed Forces.

⚡️Israel says it does not have production capacity to supply air defense to Ukraine.
Outgoing Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz also said "it is impossible to empty (Israel's) supply of air defense systems," the Jerusalem Post reporte

⚡️Wall Street Journal: US refuses to provide Ukraine with advanced drones.
The Biden administration will not provide Ukraine with Gray Eagle MQ-1C drones over concerns the drones could escalate the war by providing Ukraine with weapons that could hit targets in Russia, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials and other people familiar with the matter.

⚡️Top US general says Russian casualties in Ukraine at 100,000.
While speaking at the Economic Club of New York on Nov. 9, Gen. Mark Milley said more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been "killed and wounded" in Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion began on Feb. 24, Reuters reported.

⚡️ UK intelligence: Russia's withdrawal from Kherson to take several days.

⚡️ Ukraine liberates Snihurivka in Mykolaiv Oblast. (several reports of freed villages but I havent got time to look them all up atm)

The level of Russian troop losses, day after day, is staggering. Ukraine said at one point they were losing 1 for every 6 of the Russian soldiers killed and that's also a lot. There has also been heavy fighting reported in some areas which means the Ukrainian losses will have risen. Even so - 550-800 a day is a LOT

I watched this on iplayer last night and I can't really say what I think about the russians

I suppose other than, WTF do they think they are

Barbarians. And I make no apology for the sweeping generalisation.

This was a heartbreaking watch. The sheer horror, destruction and helplessness.

It's been described by the FT as heartbreaking but essential viewing, which feels a perfect way to describe it. It really reiterates that the numbers people read about in the papers were real people with real lives, real families, real hope and dreams and that the Russians have just obliterated all of that. I literally cried from beginning to end.

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thanks for the summary..

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the east (left) bank on November 9.
The battle of Kherson is not inherently over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase— prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely.

Seeing thoughts elsewhere that the topography/general elevation of the ground/water table in the area on the left bank in much of the area south of Kherson is going could make life very interesting this winter for any troops remaining in that area. Parallels being drawn with the WW2 campaign in parts of the Low Countries in the winter of 44/45)

One of my Ukrainian friends said leaving Kherson was as much of a financial discussion. They couldn't afford to station troops there. Good job there are empty apartments for those Russians unfortunate enough to be left behind 🙄

Twitter is flooded with videos of Ukrainian soliders looking happy today.

There's been no where near as much footage of Ukrainian troops in the last 6 weeks.

Here's one of those happy soldiers, although this one is from England fighting with the UAF:

Update from Ukraine 🇺🇦

We've just completed our most successful operation so far. The Ukrainian army is on the move. They're all heroes, it's an honour to be with them...

twitter.com/macergifford/status/1590633632326045696?s=61&t=saEusp5oRptqmXWpWdPHNg

It’s funny I pinned my poppy on yesterday and for the first time felt an overwhelming sense of sadness that it’s happening again. Almost brought me to tears.

I think it helped but was not a massive factor. Prochoice voters were mostly voting for Democrats anyway, and most people ranked inflation and crime as more pressing concerns. It likely did boost turnout, which helps in tight races.

In large, left-leaning states, the supreme court decision didn't change anything. Abortion was legal before, so it remained legal afterward.

Day 259, November 9th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 10 November 2022

🔥 Kherson:
For the first time in 8 months, 🇷🇺 has told truth – holding of Kherson is without perspectives. 🇷🇺 have learned to retreat, so far it’s very orderly, and less than expected for full-scale retreat. In last 4 hours approximately 200 vehicles have crossed Kahovka dam. 🇷🇺 has left first defensive line, and is taking 2nd and 3rd lines, which go along irrigation channels and are good as anti-tank barriers. Bridges are being destroyed, and unexpected pontoon bridges set up for retreats, not allowing 🇺🇦 to target traffic jams near bridges.
Everything is being mined carefully. Unknown, how long 🇷🇺 plans to hold positions and extend retreat, and if they are going to put up fight for Kherson city.
🇺🇦 forces are carefully and methodically advancing, doing advance recon. 🇷🇺 using some artillery, while 🇺🇦 is using everything they have on retreating forces. 🇺🇦 still doesn’t have enough long-range weapons, to block retreat completely, so most of 🇷🇺 forces will be able to retreat. Kherson will be liberated soon, but exact time-frame is unknown.
Reports coming in later, that 🇷🇺 is preparing for city battles, to cause heavy causalities for 🇺🇦

🔥 Kherson impact:
As Shoigu and Surovikin already announced, retreat is due to inability to hold, so it can’t be played as another goodwill gesture. This is 4th retreat by 🇷🇺, they will leave the rest of territories, including Crimea, the same way.
Media is covering this as voluntary retreat, but in fact this is result of hard battles, many lost solders from various 🇺🇦 defensive forces.
There are known at least 3 torture rooms in Kherson, expecting to find many more.
Expecting significant discontent in 🇷🇺 society, as Kherson was the only large district center captured, since beginning of campaign, why should they mobilize and fight.
Battles can still last for months, but this is large strategic fracture. Nobody in 🇷🇺 will believe in their success anymore.

🔥 Pavlivka, Vuhledar, Volnovakha:
🇷🇺 reporting 300 of their own marines killed in first 2 days. Approx 5-8 🇷🇺 battalions entered Pavlivka, while 🇺🇦 didn’t give up their positions. Then some 🇺🇦 landing brigade arrived, kicked them out, and now hunting remaining of them in 🇷🇺 rear.
This is strategic location for 🇷🇺, as Volnovakha some 36km away and contains the only remaining rail line for supplying south (the other one was Crimea bridge).
If 🇷🇺 losses 10km, rail line can be targeted by brigade level field level artillery.
This failure at Pavlivka was last drop in decision to retreat from Kherson.

🔥 Bakhmut, Soledar
🇷🇺 keeps attacking with 8 to 10 waves per day, which doesn’t make sense from military perspective. There are piles of bodies everywhere. Those forces should have been used in Pavlivka. Possibly 🇷🇺 will use remaining Kherson troops near Bakhmut on useless political goals.

🔥 Svatove:
🇷🇺 attempting small counterattacks on 2 directions, 🇺🇦 doing counter-attacks in against them, gaining small advances.

🔥 Kreminna, Bilohorivka:
No ground lost at Bilohorivka, despite uninterrupted attacks. Interesting position captured near Kreminna.

🔥 Stremousov:
Traitor and collaborationist K. Stremousov died in car crash. As a warning to any collaborationist – the more you speak publicly, the more chances that the same might happen to you. 🇷🇺 government doesn’t reward collaborationists. Retreat is good moment for revenge. There is wide press coverage, possibly to overwhelm media. Stremousov was awarded medal of bravery by Putin.

🔥 Crimea:
Reports of fortifications being built in north Crimea, but they won’t help.

🔥 Negotiations:
🇷🇺 officials started calling for negotiations today, at that moment decision to leave Kherson was already known.
Any news of 🇺🇦 negotiation will not be taken well, 91-96% of 🇺🇦 population wants complete expel of 🇷🇺 forces, no negotiations.
🇷🇺 will attempt to present leaving Kherson as negotiated, as loosing it in battles (which are possibly still about to happen) is even worse for morale.

🔥 Kadyrov:
Kadyrov agreed to decision of retreat, this shows interesting difference of attacking Lapin, but praising Surovikin on similar decisions. He got temporary boost of freedom to attack Lapin, but he still remains subordinate of Putin.

🔥 Losses:
🇷🇺 Surovikin reports that 🇺🇦 has lost 12k solders during October, from August to October in Kherson district 🇺🇦 has lost 9.5k solders (killed and wounded). Arestovych believes, this is opposite, 🇷🇺 presenting their own losses numbers as 🇺🇦. According to 🇺🇦 data, 🇷🇺 has lost 9.5k solders in Kherson district, ratio 1 to 7-8 killed/wounded.

Ukrainian forces are closing in on Kherson from the North West towards Chornobaivka today as well as from North Eastern Kherson Region.

Geolocated verified images this afternoon put Ukrainian forces 9km to Chornobaivka Airport and 14km to Kherson itself.

There are many many Ukrainian flags on twitter video today.

Video today, What was he thinking 🤔 😂

That looks like he has been stitched up by someone and he's oblivious

The Washington Post had a good editorial this morning about the withdrawal from Kherson and what it says about Putin's state of mind. Here's a link without the paywall.

archive.ph/kDRGA

I wonder how soon they'll turn off the water supply to Crimea. I think that there will be some shelling of the city by the Russians once they consolidate their position on the left bank of the river, but the UAF have to tools to deal with that.

Looking at some of the maps of the Russian retreat, is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant now back under Ukrainian control?

Talk seems that Ukraine may reach Chornobaivka today.

Certainly a few people hinting its on the cards.

We shall see.

The level of Russian troop losses, day after day, is staggering. Ukraine said at one point they were losing 1 for every 6 of the Russian soldiers killed and that's also a lot. There has also been heavy fighting reported in some areas which means the Ukrainian losses will have risen. Even so - 550-800 a day is a LOT

I wouldn't be surprised if that ratio has changed a lot.
The Ukrainians are battle hardened, organised and motivated whereas the Russian troops now consist of men that are untrained, unskilled, and don't want to be there.

The Ukrainians also have much better weapons and equipment. I think that will be making a big difference in those numbers.

Russian forces claim they have taken Pavlivka and are trying to take Bakhmut. They're desperate to offset the bad news of the Kherson withdrawal:

War monitor update and thread linked below:

There is a difficult situation in Bakhmut and Pavlivka area the battles are fierce.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1590708696438697984?s=61&t=saEusp5oRptqmXWpWdPHNg

That is the town of Zaporizhzhia, the nuclear power plant is further south below the river

Map

Thanks for clarifying Saisong, that's a shame.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 14:56
Russian forces claim they have taken Pavlivka and are trying to take Bakhmut. They're desperate to offset the bad news of the Kherson withdrawal:

War monitor update and thread linked below:

There is a difficult situation in Bakhmut and Pavlivka area the battles are fierce.

twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/1590708696438697984?s=61&t=saEusp5oRptqmXWpWdPHNg

How worrying. Where was that Ukrainian soldier who last week made a video to say he thought they were surrounded, it was likely the end for them, and that we should all cherish every moment? Was it near this area?

Yes I watched the video he was near bahmut