Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Ohhhhhhhh!

<sound of penny dropping>

@MissConductUS thats a really interesting thought, you may well be right. Indeed all seemed to point to a red wave which doesn’t seem to have materialised. Fingers crossed.

I don’t understand at this stage what RU hope to get from any negotiations other than a pause in hostilities to regroup rearm and train their useless troops.

I am told that liberating Ukraine forces are expecting to be attacked with phosphorus. It could well be the rumour mill. But the Ukrainian people I know are more worried than relieved.

This wouldn’t surprise me, it would be horrific though.

Yes, I think they were really hoping for that. A least one pundit said that on TV. They openly want to stir more hatred up within the US.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 18:25
I am told that liberating Ukraine forces are expecting to be attacked with phosphorus. It could well be the rumour mill. But the Ukrainian people I know are more worried than relieved

It does not seem as though it is quite wise to feel relieved.

I think relief might be premature.

If they really do withdraw ... Does this mean that HIMARS can reach Crimea?

Not Himars no. But north Crimea would be in range of another weapon I forget the name of according to Twitter.

Interesting

Rob Lee has a thread on range. I'm out so cant post it all.

Key tweet:

Also keep in mind that parts of Crimea will be within GMLRS range once Russia abandons the right bank. A number of railway stations, ammunition depots, and other logistics points will be within HIMARS range as well. 6/

He then goes on to link to a map made by defmon3 on himar range. (have attached) And points to a thread which has sat recon on trench building in Crimea. Whole thread worth reading.

ty RTB

❗️Germany reported on another batch of aid for Ukraine - the website of the German government.

Among the changes, compared to the data as of the previous week, it states:

• 30 Dingo armored vehicles;
• missiles for the Iris-T air defense system previously provided to Ukraine;
• 4 sensors to detect and interfere with drones;
• 5 M1070 Oshkosh tractors and another loader.

⚡️ Reuters: Eastern European countries preparing for new Ukrainian refugee wave in winter.
Eastern European countries are getting ready to reopen reception centers and are restocking food supplies in anticipation of a possible new Ukrainian refugee wave amid Russian attacks on Ukraine's power grid and heating plants, Reuters reported on Nov. 9.

⚡️ Israeli military analyst: 70% of Russia's Black Sea Fleet is incapacitated.
"This does not mean that they are drowned, just incapacitated, meaning they can't carry out any offensive actions," Yigal Levin, a military expert and former officer of the Israel Defense Forces, told Radio NV.

⚡️Zelensky talks with Dutch prime minister on Nov. 9.
President Volodymyr Zelensky and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte discussed the two countries’ cooperation regarding Ukraine's air defense capabilities and the restoration of energy infrastructure, Zelensky wrote on Twitter.

Ukraine war latest: Russia orders withdrawal from Kherson, Ukraine doesn't confirm yet (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-russia-orders-withdrawal-from-kherson-ukraine-doesnt-confirm-yet)
Neither the Ukrainian military nor President Volodymyr Zelensky has commented on Russia's retreats from Kherson.
According to Ukraine's October assessment, there were 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops on Dnipro's right bank.

⚡️Governor: Russian troops use incendiary ammunition to attack Sumy Oblast

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks for the further round up.

⚡️Governor: Russian troops use incendiary ammunition to attack Sumy Oblast

Is incendiary ammunition phosphorus? Would that be civilian or military areas?

There could be Ukrainian military there I suppose but there are a number of reports of Russia using chemical weopons like this outside the very limited rules.

Some muttering this evening of Ukrainian uptick in activity on the Svatove front near Kreminna.

At this stage it seems too early to say something is definitely happening but there is increasing noise. I guess it's another keep your eyes on.

Phosphorous is one type of incendiary ammunition. Petrol-based ones are more commonly used, like napalm. Phosphorous is also used to generate smoke.

Dan Lamothe at Dan lamothe
Gen. Mark Milley speaking now at a gathering of the Economic Club of New York. Expecting a conversation that probably touches on Veterans Day, Ukraine, and how the U.S. military fits into American society

Are Russian forces pulling back from Kherson city?

Milley says there are "initial indicators" that they are doing so.

"This is going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river."

Milley says it remains to be seen if they follow through.

Milley asked: Is the time right to consider diplomacy in Ukraine?

Milley says "there has to be mutual recognition" that a true military win is not achievable.

Draws comparison to World War I, where victory was not achievable after 1914. Millions more killed in next few years.

Perhaps a bit off topic, but the conservative press here is roundly excoriating Trump for having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the midterm elections. This will weaken the far right wing of the party that wants to slow or reduce aid for Ukraine. So it's a very good result here.

Comprehensive thread by Mick Ryan on the Russian withdrawal from the Dniepr and its implications: threadreaderapp.com/thread/1590524003994972160.html

Following the stories over the weekend yesterday the UK Ministry of Defence made this announcement:

www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-provide-1000-more-surface-to-air-missiles-to-ukraine

I think more than a few are asking where did the UK get that many from and it would certainly be interesting to the detail ( as in exactly what is being supplied) but whatever the full story I'm sure it's welcome news.

That is very good news

Interesting piece in the Washington Post about the significance of the apparent Kherson withdrawal, and how such actions show that Putin is a rational actor, not a deranged madman. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/09/putin-kherson-retreat-important-defeat/?fbclid=IwAR0xIKJvMTEaXCYmGAismCWT-vxmN0ON4SZGJUnU0styhmUIWuODvCI1-7U

I have to say it (again) - the Ukrainian sense of humour and use of pop culture/social media is just brilliant