Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

lol. They need to fit them with minute little blue-and-yellow baskets on their feet for pollen collecting!

ISW Key Takeaways

Iranian sources announced—without Russian confirmation—that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev arrived in Tehran on November 8, likely to discuss the potential sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia. Iran likely announced Patrushev’s arrival to highlight the deepening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran to an international audience, as well as to implicitly highlight that a high-ranking Russian official turned to Iran for help in Ukraine.

Wagner Group forces are continuing to exaggerate their claimed territorial gains in Donbas to further distinguish themselves from proxy and conventional Russian forces.

Ukrainian forces likely made marginal gains northwest of Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces intensified offensive operations toward Kreminna.

Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian authorities attempted to counteract Russian authorities’ continued efforts to strengthen control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

The disproportionate financial burden of Russian force generation efforts continues to fall primarily on Russian regional governments’ budgets, prompting public backlash.

Financial and bureaucratic issues are continuing to hinder Russian efforts to replenish formerly elite units defending critical areas of the front line, potentially threatening the integrity of Russian defenses in occupied parts of Ukraine.

Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast may be trying to force residents out of the western part of the oblast by cutting communications on the west bank of the Dnipro River.

+++

Zelenskyy today:
There’s a decrease in the number of news from the front compared to early autumn. But it does not mean less intense fighting.

The situation’s hard on the entire front. Fierce positional battles continue, it’s especially hard in the Donetsk region. The occupiers are suffering huge losses, but their order is the same – reach the Donetsk region’s administrative border. We’re not giving up a single centimeter of our land. I thank all our heroes holding positions in Donbas.
Kherson – we clearly see the enemy’s plans and act accordingly. Carefully, thoughtfully and in the interests of liberating our entire territory, we’re reinforcing our positions, ruining Russian logistics, consistently ruining the occupiers’ potential to maintain the occupation of the south of our country.
East – we’re gradually returning the Ukrainian flag to all our cities and communities. We’re also actively reinforcing the border.

Glory to everyone who fights for our country!
Glory to our strong people!
Glory to Ukraine!

+++

⚡️ Ukraine's intelligence may have proof Iran supplied drones to Russia after Feb. 24.

⚡️ Zelensky proposes extending martial law in Ukraine for another 90 days.

⚡️ Official: First Russian ships with military gear entered Mariupol port.
Building materials, medicines for military hospitals, and several hundred sets of military uniforms have been brought to the occupied city of Mariupol through its port for the first time, according to Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the Mariupol mayor.

⚡️ Germany to provide 7.6 million euros to help find missing Ukrainians.
Germany will provide 7.6 million euros for the International Commission on Missing Persons to help find Ukrainians who went missing after Feb. 24 due to Russia's war.
The German Embassy in Ukraine said on Nov. 8 that it would also help train Ukrainian forensic experts and investigators.

⚡️ Reuters: Turkey begins to pay for some Russian gas in rubles.

⚡️ Reuters: Turkey begins to pay for some Russian gas in rubles.

Macron: Ukraine-Russia negotiations should resume under Kyiv’s conditions

⚡️PM Shmyhal: Ukraine has enough resources to get through the heating season. (getting them to the right places may be a more tricky question though, perhaps?)

⚡️ABC News: Ukraine asks US for additional defense systems to counter Iranian drones. (as @MissConductUS has discussed)

⚡️Sky News: Russia sent to Iran 140 million euros, Western weapons seized in Ukraine in exchange for kamikaze drones (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/sky-news-russia-sent-to-iran-140-million-euros-in-cash-western-weapons-seized-in-ukraine-in-exchange-for-kamikaze-drones).
A Russian military aircraft covertly delivered 140 million euros in cash and three models of captured U.K. and U.S. weapons to an airport in Tehran on Aug. 20, Sky News reported, citing an unnamed source from security services. In return, Iran provided Russia with over 160 drones, including 100 Shahed-136 ones, according to the source.

⚡️Pentagon confirms (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/pentagon-confirms-2-nasams-air-defense-systems-delivery-to-ukraine) 2 NASAMS air defense systems delivery to Ukraine. (two seems so small for the whole country :/ )

⚡️Bloomberg: Russia, US to discuss renewal of nuclear arms control talks. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-russia-us-to-discuss-renewal-of-nuclear-arms-control-talks)
Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet in the coming weeks to discuss the resumption of inspections of nuclear weapons facilities under the New Strategic Arms Reductions Treaty (New START), Bloomberg reported, citing the U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price.
The treaty has been put on hold since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

⚡️ US to provide additional $25 million in winter assistance for Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine's military destroys 2 Russian ammunition depots in southern Ukraine.

⚡️ Governor: Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast "afraid" to store ammo in warehouses.
Residents of occupied Alchevsk have been spotting a lot of Russian trucks with ammunition, according to Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai.
Russian forces are "afraid" to store it in warehouses due to Ukraine's attacks, Haidai said.
"At night, (Russians) load the ammo from those trucks into smaller vehicles and deliver it to the front line," he said.

well over 700 dead again. Putin is going to have to start thinking of ways to repress unrest within Russia at some point, maybe. There are already stirrings of it.

Can't remember if this has been posted before but it's witty, a thank you from Ukraine to France

twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580090899228418048?s=20&t=2NNyKEYRPnxbjs9ebzO9mQ

It's too soon to call either the house or the senate. Republicans have underperformed expectations. I think they likely will take the house. Trump-backed candidates have done poorly and lost some key races, which will diminish his political influence in the future, thank god.

They are so good at this

Contrast with the russian multipolar/collective west/hegemony/neo nazi word salad they they come up with

Ukraine is skilled at using cultural references from the countries they are directing their video messages to. Some of the British cultural references, esp from WW2, I am not even familiar with, not being originally from the UK. I wonder how they got so good at it. It is nuanced, witty and not crude.

@notimagain thanks for explaining the difference between C-RAM and S-300 missile systems.

Trump-backed candidates have done poorly and lost some key races, which will diminish his political influence in the future, thank god.

You think this will have a long term effect? He said something about running in 2024 which was frankly chilling

.... UNCONFIRMED

Dmitri
@wartranslated
·
1m
Russian Romanov:

"09.11.2022
Kherson, Russia.

[Kherson is] surrendered. It will be announced in the evening."

Surely not. And if they have surely it’s a trap. This actually makes my blood run a little cold.

I don’t think an army with commanders of the calibre of the Ukrainian ones would be easily led into a trap.
Hope it’s true but will only believe it when we see evidence.

I want so badly to agree with you. On the flip side I don't think the Russians are in any way organised and well-trained enough to lay any sort of useful trap. Fingers crossed.

well over 700 dead again.

780 today. Was 710 yesterday.

I'm viewing anything over 500 as particularly high.

There also seem to be increasing numbers of Russian soliders surrendering over the last year. This is significant in its own right as they will be contacting family to let them know their status.

The rate of attrition on Russian mobilised men isn't just dead and wounded its also POWs.

Svatove in particular is having a lot of reports of men sent to the front, being abandoned by commanders, without communication with other units (which is increasing friendly fire incidents) and the net result is a breakdown in discipline and Russians are just finding places to try and hide for as long as possible, rather than actively participating in fighting.

This could be propaganda, but I think the combination of the high death rate and the same stories coming from both Ukrainian and Russian sources suggests its a real thing.

Thats also more POWs to potentially exchange, though if I was a Russian POW I'm not sure I'd want exchanging any time soon...

Re: Kherson, there's been rumours for a while that the Russians would surrender on 9th / 10th. That also ties in with reports that forced deportations on the other side of the bank (particularly near the dam upriver) being having to be completed by 9th/10th.

So it's not totally unexpected. But it also doesn't answer the question of what happens next.

Noel at noelreports
This night, Russian forces reportedly left the following settlements in Kherson oblast: Kachkarivka, Mylove, Novokairy, Borozenske, Sukhanove, Chervonyi Yar, Pyatikhatky, Kuchers'ke and Sadok.

Waiting for more info.

These settlements are before the dam, with some quite some distance from the river anyway.

That suggests at least some fall back elsewhere too. Perhaps to draw Ukrainian troops into Kherson, but that would liberate other areas in the process in order to facilitate that.

I'm seeing A LOT about the surrender of Kherson on Twitter, does seem to be too good to be true, also this:

Other sources saying Kirill was in a car crash but survived.

Update on Stremousov:

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
‼️The administration of the annexed part of the Kherson region confirmed the death of Kirill Stremousov.

Gauleiter's death is also confirmed by the Kremlin state media.

We will not miss him.

A 'surrender' is suspicious. Why call it a 'surrender'? It is a 'good will gesture' surely. Something's up.

Also seeing reports of a significant battle at Snihurivka in Kherson yesterday.

Some sources are saying the Russians are engaged in heavy fighting there still whilst other are saying they've been defeated.

Russian sources are certainly saying they've lost communication with troops stationed there.

This from a reputable Western journalist within the last hour:

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Russian source Rybar reports that Ukrainian forces are engaged in heavy fighting at Snihurivka, the anchor of Russia's defences north of Kherson. Russian troops have reportedly been pushed back and have detonated bridges in preparation for further retreats.

A soldier currently on the front tells me Russians have left their positions all across his area: "nobody is visible, seems it's gonna be the victory of the battle in this area"

Russian propagandist Sasha Kots: "On Kherson: I have no good news. There's not much of that in general these days. We await the official announcements."

Twitter chatter is that this town was important for Russia to hold, to keep a foothold in Kherson region, so the loss of it means its unsurprising that there might be a fall back in other parts of Northern Kherson.

So i think something is definitely happening which looks like positive news for the Ukrainian army.

I think its more that we are now waiting to see the extent of what's happened and what the Russian response might be.

There were rumours late last night that the Ukrainians HAD launched another offensive and would be 'on the move again soon', so this is again consistent with that.

Dmitri at wartranslate
Russian volunteer in Kherson, "13th":

"Snihurivka is fcked, don't believe the motherfckers from Moscow sofas ."

In the replies underneath:

My mother got a call from relatives in Snihurivka. It's liberated, UA flag above the stadium. Yesterday convoy of RU was destroyed, then many RU fled, but also those who could not flee raised white flag and waited for UAF.

And

Local Telegram channel in Snihurivka with a photo of the Ukrainian flag raised on a telecommunications tower. Russian forces seem to be leaving the key town.

The big push to liberate Kherson was always going to start with Snihurivka, watch this space.

I think these will turn out to be legit and will be verified by geolocation pretty soon.

The chatter between Russian and Ukrainian sources seems to be following a consistent pattern and saying very similar which suggests this is the case on the ground.

Snihurivka is by the blue arrow on the left in the map above. If the Ukrainians have made a significant advance there, the settlements to the east of it (which have reportedly been abandoned this afternoon) would be exposed and at risk of encirclement.

As I say, it's all pretty consistent with the various bit of information coming in.

What do we think Russia's response will be if the Kherson surrender proves true?

@RedToothBrush appreciate your updates from the Kherson frontlines to help clear the fog. I cannot imagine how many reports and tweets you had to sift through to cut through the noise.

Fingers crossed for Ukraine.

Hopefully denial. Nothing to see here.

In fact in the last 10 mins:

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Photo posted just now on Telegram reportedly showing the Ukrainian flag over Snihurivka

^Possible geolocation here twitter.com/noredhat1^

Starting to firm up already I'd say.

I suspect unfortunately if anything continued bombardment of civilians and infrastructure.

Surprising few tbh.

I just am good at knowing how to find stuff quickly and I'm keeping an eye on general status of day to day situ reporting.

I should be doing other shit which is more my issue!