Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

very useful roundup, thanks

@DesdamonasHandkerchief Ref:

"Russian missile terror and:

The weather will also make launches from ships and planes more difficult.

???any idea what the thinking was behind that claim?

(I guess it might be true to a minor degree but wouldn't expect it's going to have a really major effect)

The guy who does the round up is:

Oleksii Mykolaiovych Arestovych or Oleksiy Arestovych is a Georgian-born Ukrainian intelligence officer, Lieutenant colonel, blogger, actor, political and military columnist. Arestovych is an organizer of psychological seminars and trainings and a charity fund for psychological support to the military.

I copy and paste because I think he seems to have some battlefield intel.
But I presume he's biased in Ukraine's favour. Maybe missile launching not his specialist subject! I don't see how normal winter weather would effect launching either.

Well we know that cloud cover makes it harder for satellite reconnaissance and harder for drone strikes and attacks from planes.

That would most likely favour attacks within visual range, especially from higher ground. So HIMARS attacks over Svatove still possible but longer range attacks more difficult if you are trying to hit something in particular.

Of course if you decided you wanted to just through missiles about for the fun of it and didn't care what you hit that would still be doable.

This guy is also involved in the round up, they do a daily video (I think) which is then translated:

Mark Feygin is a Russian opposition politician, lawyer and human rights activist.

True to some degree but radar and other options for imaging/targeting are available and certainly fixed structures will have been well and truly mapped, so loss of "visual" weather won't preclude attacks on utilities installations.

As for more mobile stuff, e.g. on the battle field If troops on the ground can come up with grid ref or a lat long for something of interest then it can be hit very precisely using GPS/satnav equipped ordnance.

I don't deny poor weather may introduce some complications (for example can the launch aircraft get airborne off a runway covered with snow) but it's not as limiting as it was even a decade or two ago.

Can't edit so to add:

The one thing poor visual weather might do is slow down the Russian's battle damage assessment (BDA) - do they care? and high winds/icing conditions could well be problematic for the Iranian Drones.....

But the more advanced stuff?? I guess we will find out.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 13:09
An article by Anne Applebaum:

Fear of Nuclear War Has Warped the West’s Ukraine Strategy

'Our self-imposed limitations may well have encouraged Putin to believe that American support for Ukraine is limited and will soon end. Our insistence that Ukraine not harm Russia or Russians in its own defense might explain why he keeps fighting. Perhaps our nuclear anxiety actually encourages him to carry out nonnuclear mass atrocities; he does so because he believes he will not face any consequences, because we will not escalate.'

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/11/russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-fear-us-policy/672020/

Thank you, she is an interesting analyst to follow.

Interesting but..

Russian nuclear threats are now habitually echoed and amplified by proxies as disparate as the British politician Jeremy Corbyn...

If JC is considered a proxy for amplifying these threats then maybe the author needs to look at those running the Daily Mail/Mail on Sunday.

The Republican leadership has offered reassurances that aid to Ukraine will continue after the election.

Republicans try to allay concerns about U.S. aid to Ukraine ahead of Election Day - Republicans, including would-be-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, are emphasizing the U.S.’s support for Ukraine as Trump-backed candidates have questioned aid money.

The results won't be known with certainty until the end of the week. There are millions of vote by post ballots to be counted.

Another thread from Chris O about the conditions of the Ru army.

twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1590040841883889666

You have to click on the last one to get the thread to continue, it's sort of a thread with an appendix. He's saying that even the special units are treated the same as the others - very poor conditions, very poor equipment, very poor command, high losses, not allowed to retreat.

Ukraine has formally requested the C-RAM systems I posted about recently:

twitter.com/Tendar/status/1590025760412438528

Here's the news article referenced in the tweet.

Ukraine asks US for new capabilities in fighting Iranian drones

These will likely have to go by ship. I think the vehicle they mount on is too big for airlifting.

Is there an organisation/charity sending stuff out to the Ukrainians in the way of warm clothing or other items? I cant remember the charity sending stuff out when there were civilians fleeing to Poland etc.

Forget that, I should have googled, but I dont mean big charities like UNICEF or similar

Some noise on Twitter about UAF being on the move again.

Also, if you want to see some frontline updates, and have a bit of laugh, I recommend following Defmon on Twitter. He's really funny.

That is good. I desperately hope Ukraine get them to counter the Iranian rockets and make up for running out of Russian-made S-300.

If Ukraine make an open formal request like this, it is likely that there have already been behind-the-scenes discussions with the US to provide? Otherwise, it would be awkward and potentially send the wrong message for US to turn them down?

*If Ukraine make an open formal request like this, it is likely that there have already been behind-the-scenes discussions with the US to provide? Otherwise, it would be awkward and potentially send the wrong message for US to turn them down?

Yes, it certainly would have been discussed and agreed on before a public request. In a situation like this, you never want to ask a question you don't already know the answer to.

Because C-RAM is short-range and purely defensive, it's not controversial. The 20mm ammunition is also cheap and in abundant supply. It's a really good fit for the drone and missile threat for high-value targets.

Thanks for explaining, MissConductUS. That is reassuring.

Sorry for the bold failure on the quote.

Fun C-RAM fact - the gun's radar tracks both the target and the projectiles. This allows the fire control system to make real-time corrections in the aim to compensate for factors like wind, temperature and any changes in the trajectory of the target. A typical fire mission expends 200-300 rounds.

Day 258, November 8th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast.
Posted on 08 November 2022

🔥Battlefield overview
Russia increased the shelling of the Chernigiv and Sumy regions from Russian territory. Unsuccessful Russian counterattacks in Svatove, Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinka and Pavlovka (near Vuhledar). Ukrainian artillery continues harassing Russian troops in the Kherson region.

🔥Svatove-Kreminna
Russia tried & failed to secure the main road connecting Svatove to Kreminna. The Ukrainian Army maintains its positions & fire control over the P66 road.

🔥Kherson
Despite some media reports of Russia withdrawing from Kherson, Russians are preparing to defend the occupied territory as the loss of Kherson will be a major strategic and political defeat for the Kremlin both domestically & internationally. Ukraine continues to hit Russian troops in the Kherson region with artillery & HIMARS several times a day inflicting heavy losses and disrupting Russian logistics.

🔥Russian mobilization
Russian mobilization allowed them to replenish some units and, at a moment when Ukraine was accumulating resources to resume a counteroffensive. Thus, Russia attempted to attack Bakhmut, Mariinka and Svatove but failed, with Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicting heavy damage on the Russian troops, especially the mobilised ones that tend to die or run from their positions. Thus, Russia will need to mobilize more troops in a couple of months and will face even bigger supply problems, lacking proper training, equipment & weapons for the mobilized.

🔥Buying time with bodies
The Russian mobilization, use of Iranian Drones and soon-to-arrive Iranian missiles cannot change the course of this war – Russia cannot capture any major cities as sending the mobilized Russians to die at the frontline has only delayed the inevitable Russian defeat.

🔥G20 summit
President Zelensky will probably attend the G20 summit via videoconference. With Putin not going to the G20 in person a face-to-face meeting won’t be possible. The media narrative on the West pressuring Ukraine into negotiations with Russia by threatening to cease the military aid is almost for sure a Russian PsyOps.
The Ukrainian conditions for the start of negotiations are clear & were once more restated by President Zelensky: withdrawal of all Russian troops from all Ukrainian territories (1991 borders); reparations; release of POWs & kidnapped Ukrainians; and prosecution of Russian war criminals.

🔥US Midterm elections
The GOP is set to gain a majority in the US Congress, yet the isolationists & trumpists (the latter praising Putin as a “conservative” icon) in the GOP do not represent the whole GOP.
The majority of US citizens support Ukraine & the increase of military aid to Ukraine. Moreover, GOP represents the military lobby & war hawks that would also be in favour of continuing military aid to Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s hopes for the GOP to stop supporting Ukraine may soon turn out to be another strategic error – after some short discussion & public committees, the Republicans may take a much tougher stance and send even more weapons to please their domestic electorate & the military lobby.

🔥Negotiating on Russian conditions leads only to an escalation by Russia
In response to the Russian aggression in Ukraine, European countries increased their military spending & are reviving their military industry. This will also drive the US cooperation on rearming Ukraine & forging new security arrangements, leading to the increase of supply of additional & new types of armament to Ukraine.
Despite the Russian PsyOps on “the West pressuring Ukraine into negotiations” the Western allies made their position clear – only Ukraine will dictate the conditions for the negotiations and the West will support Ukraine for as long as it’s needed to achieve Ukrainian victory.

🔥Schism within the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine
While some individuals representing the Russian Orthodox Church (Moscow’s patriarchate) in Ukraine were detained by SBU on charges of collaborating with the Russian invading forces, others have publicly condemned the Russian invasion from the beginning. The Church undergoes internal division due to one part siding with the moral principles and another with the Russian aggressor.
Ukraine does not prosecute people for their beliefs but only for their criminal actions (collaborating and aiding the Russian invaders & war criminals).

🔥 The grain deal & international food safety
President Zelensky set up a task force to guarantee delivery & increase the food items variety to be exported to the countries in need of food aid.
2022 marks 90 years of the Holodomor in Ukraine, when 4M Ukrainians died of man-made genocide by hunger in the USSR. Thus, the Ukrainian state & society will do everything in their power to prevent famine in other countries and are working hard to guarantee food security in developing countries of Africa & the Middle East.

🔥Sanctions
New Zealand introduced more personal sanctions against Russian nationals working at or linked to the Kremlin and the invasion of Ukraine.

🔥The Pope and POW exchange
Allegedly, the Pope is personally involved in POW exchange negotiations with the Kremlin which may explain some of his previous appeasing comments & a neutral position in the war in Ukraine.

🔥Evolution of the Kremlin’s rhetoric
3 days after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the spokesperson for Kremlin, Rudenko, declared that “Russia is willing to negotiate only after the de-militarization & “de-nazification” of Ukraine”. After 8 and a half months of the war the same individual states that the official Russian position is that the “Kremlin doesn’t have any preliminary conditions to start negotiations”. Russia is already begging for negotiations through diplomatic channels, and, in a couple of months, we may see Kremlin’s public pleading.

@blueshoes

Re C-RAM and

I desperately hope Ukraine get them to counter the Iranian rockets and make up for running out of Russian-made S-300.

As @MissConductUS has said C-RAM is very much a short range system (C-RAM stands for Counter - Rockets, Artillery ,Mortar), good for engaging those sort of targets out to a range of a mile or two, so potentially great in the context of countering the Iranian built drones, especially if the C-RAM is parked up near a target.

They don't help that much, if at all, in making up any shortage in S-300 rounds, which is a much much longer range system with a range of as 100 kilometers plus plus, so capable of engaging airborne targets in a much bigger chunk of airspace. The two systems are complementary, one doesn't replace the other.

Thank you for the update @DesdamonasHandkerchief - lots of promising news and reasons to be hopeful

Watching the US election results with interest, seems much closer than anticipated. @MissConductUS and any other US posters any initial thoughts?

I can never contribute anything clever although I enjoy all the insights

I can share tweets though

The Ministry of Defence are SO shady

Patriotic bees here

twitter.com/defenceu/status/1590056307863785477?s=46&t=M6GpzbFxSxPMeu_iySgVVw

Reports on Twitter, citing Bloomberg, that Hungary have blocked the EU's latest aid package for Ukraine.