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Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

988 replies

MagicFox · 23/10/2022 21:29

Welcome all πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
80
ScrollingLeaves · 06/11/2022 18:58

Mb76 I pray you get back one day and touch that earth and see a flower with sunlight on it, on an irreplaceable spot.

You can’t deport or kill a particular spit on this earth.

Underthesofa · 06/11/2022 19:30

There’s a good thread on twitter by TimothyDSnyder. I don’t know how to link it - please can someone do it for me? It’s how the US should be grateful to the Ukrainians.

Fladdermus · 06/11/2022 20:17

Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 17:34

I would just point out, as a Scot who voted no in the referendum and would vote yes now for independence, opinions do change.

True, but you haven't been invaded and watched your men, women and children be raped and murdered. I can't see anyone who voted to be rid of Russia now deciding that actually, it'd be quite nice to live under Putin's regime.

MissConductUS · 06/11/2022 20:49

Underthesofa · 06/11/2022 19:30

There’s a good thread on twitter by TimothyDSnyder. I don’t know how to link it - please can someone do it for me? It’s how the US should be grateful to the Ukrainians.

Here's the thread

mobile.twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1589260108537610240

Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 21:00

Fladdermus · 06/11/2022 20:17

True, but you haven't been invaded and watched your men, women and children be raped and murdered. I can't see anyone who voted to be rid of Russia now deciding that actually, it'd be quite nice to live under Putin's regime.

Apologies if I’ve been misunderstood, not saying for a second they’d legitimately vote to join Russia, just that a lot can change in 30+ years and so can’t look at a referendum in β€˜91 as definitive in 2022.

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 21:52

DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since mid-May.

I think this comment from today's Takeaway needs picking up on.

Normally friendly fire is units from the same side accidentally shooting each other.

There have been a few incidents suggested and communication systems that don't work or are being 'jammed' by Ukrainians playing rock music we're definitely a thing, particularly in the early stage of the war.

But it would be wrong to catagorise Russian blue on blue casualties as 'friendly' given other information.

We know that there has been deliberate infighting between units or even within units. We also know that's there's been high levels of Russians or press ganged Ukrainians being shot in the back for failure to follow orders. And quite a few fragging incidents.

For up to 60% of Russian casualties to be blue on blue, that's insane. That's can not represent anything but systematic abuse of your own troups, complete failure of internal communications at institutional level AND widespread lack of discipline and control of soliders.

Thats not just a small failing. That's complete breakdown of army functionality.

Underthesofa · 06/11/2022 22:01

MissConductUS

Thank you

blueshoes · 06/11/2022 22:12

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 21:52

DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since mid-May.

I think this comment from today's Takeaway needs picking up on.

Normally friendly fire is units from the same side accidentally shooting each other.

There have been a few incidents suggested and communication systems that don't work or are being 'jammed' by Ukrainians playing rock music we're definitely a thing, particularly in the early stage of the war.

But it would be wrong to catagorise Russian blue on blue casualties as 'friendly' given other information.

We know that there has been deliberate infighting between units or even within units. We also know that's there's been high levels of Russians or press ganged Ukrainians being shot in the back for failure to follow orders. And quite a few fragging incidents.

For up to 60% of Russian casualties to be blue on blue, that's insane. That's can not represent anything but systematic abuse of your own troups, complete failure of internal communications at institutional level AND widespread lack of discipline and control of soliders.

Thats not just a small failing. That's complete breakdown of army functionality.

@RedToothBrush I did pause at the 60% statistic so thanks for clarifying. You cannot get such a high % unless it was deliberate murder. I cannot imagine how little regard for human life a regime can have that sends its men to the front lines only to kill them for not fighting. What utter brutality and waste.

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 22:13

Today there have been Russian rumours of mass casualties in Pavlivka.

We knew there had been a big failed assault here but there's some more details of this apparently now coming out.

300 casualties in one brigade alone. Morale is, unsurprisingly, being reported as being at rock bottom.

This is the second report in a similar vein to one yesterday talking about 600 dead from one group of mobiks in the Svatove area.

Taken together these two reports which are seemingly from Russian sources suggest that those exceptionally high casualty figure the Ukrainians were putting out last week have creditability.

I note that the Ukrainian sourced casualty report on Russian soliders has markedly reduced to under 500 a day yesterday and today.

Otherwise I'm not seeing much else catching my attention this evening. Quieter than it has been.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 22:15

Thanks @RedToothBrush really interesting analysis as ever.

blueshoes · 06/11/2022 22:19

Hear hear.

Timothy Snyder
...
In defeating Russia’s armed forces and exposing Russia’s weakness, the Ukrainians have both made a larger war in Europe far less likely, and gotten China’s cat’s paw under control. 6/

The Ukrainians have reduced the possibility of Chinese aggression through Russia, and made direct Chinese aggression less likely. They have done all of this just by defending themselves, without making any move against China. 7/
...
It is awkward to say that another country is doing so much for us. It is awkward to say that Ukrainian resistance has done more for the safety of Americans than any U.S. policy since the end of the cold war. But it is true and must be said. 11/

And safety for Europeans too. Especially Europe.

minsmum · 06/11/2022 23:05

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1589365279578284032 COP27, Polish journalists trolling Russians

mids2019 · 06/11/2022 23:19

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report

Hi don't know the sources for this but surely this plays into Russia's hands. Ukraine fatigue must be one of the straws Putin is clinging too and to even have aging this may be the case will only bolster his morale.

I think the war is costly but surely doing nothing ultimately would be costlier?

Ukraine has ruled out negotiations for good reason and I don't think they will be easily pressurised to negotiate if there is a likelihood in a loss of sovreignty. Crimea though now seems a focus for the future and it will be interesting to see if Ukraine does eventually gain control over this region again. Personally I think the war is going to be very ugly before this happenx.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/11/2022 23:27

Laugh out loud good

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1589286233439555584

blueshoes · 06/11/2022 23:34

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/11/2022 23:27

Grin
blueshoes · 06/11/2022 23:37

mids2019 · 06/11/2022 23:19

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report

Hi don't know the sources for this but surely this plays into Russia's hands. Ukraine fatigue must be one of the straws Putin is clinging too and to even have aging this may be the case will only bolster his morale.

I think the war is costly but surely doing nothing ultimately would be costlier?

Ukraine has ruled out negotiations for good reason and I don't think they will be easily pressurised to negotiate if there is a likelihood in a loss of sovreignty. Crimea though now seems a focus for the future and it will be interesting to see if Ukraine does eventually gain control over this region again. Personally I think the war is going to be very ugly before this happenx.

Guardian quoting the Washington Post. Hmm As you say, what is the source. "Officials in Washington" - no shit sherlock.

ScrollingLeaves · 06/11/2022 23:48

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Β· Today 23:27
Laugh out loud good

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1589286233439555584

”Combat mosquitos” is a particularly funny idea πŸ¦ŸπŸ¦ŸπŸ¦ŸπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/11/2022 00:48

Reconnaissance fleas :-))

MagicFox · 07/11/2022 07:23

Segue, but enjoying listening to Fiona Hill on this podcast. Crazily long episode but handy time code stamps in the notes: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/lex-fridman-podcast/id1434243584?i=1000585098171

OP posts:
notimagain · 07/11/2022 07:29

@blueshoes

I did pause at the 60% statistic so thanks for clarifying. You cannot get such a high % unless it was deliberate murder. I cannot imagine how little regard for human life a regime can have that sends its men to the front lines only to kill them for not fighting. What utter brutality and waste.

TBH I'm a bit wary of drawing too many conclusions from that figure, especially as it's up to 60%...yes it might be true in a few incidents but what is going on during average day/during an average engagement?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 07/11/2022 07:39

ISW Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 6:

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed on November 6 that the Wagner Group is creating training and management centers for local β€œpeople’s militias” in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts.[18]

Russian milbloggers amplified reports that the Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade sustained severe losses during the recent offensive push towards Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[19]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna.[20]

Russian opposition sources reported that Ukrainian shelling near Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast may have killed up to 500 Russian mobilized personnel in one day.[21]

Russian forces continued establishing defensive positions on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[22] Ukrainian forces continued their interdiction campaign against Russian logistics in Kherson Oblast.[23]

Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.[24] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces broke through Ukrainian defenses near Bakhmut, made marginal gains south of Avdiivka, and remained impaled near Pavliivka in western Donetsk Oblast.[25]

Ukrainian personnel repaired two external power lines to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on November 5, resuming the supply of electricity to the ZNPP after shelling deenergized the facility on November 3.[26]

Russian occupation officials continued to cite the threat of a Ukrainian strike on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station to justify the continued forced relocation of civilians in Kherson Oblast.[27]

Russian occupation officials continued to forcibly transfer Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia under the guise of β€œvacation” schemes.[28]

Russian forces continued to struggle with domestic resistance to and poor provisioning of ongoing mobilization efforts.[29]

Note: The ISW emphasis that "The United States and its allies should not undermine Ukraine’s continued dedication to recapturing all Russian-occupied territory and halting Russia's genocidal invasion."

+++

⚑️General Staff: Russians destroy private boats in occupied Kherson Oblast en masse.

⚑️Ukraine prosecutes 10 cases against Russia’s β€˜ecocide’ in Ukraine.
According to the Prosecutor General's Office, the list of ecocide crimes includes damage caused to a nuclear research facility in the city of Kharkiv in June, attacks on oil depots, as well as the killing of 800,000 chickens by Russian troops in late October at a farm in the city of Svyatohirsk in Donetsk Oblast.

⚑️Kyiv to have emergency blackouts on Nov. 7 due to shortage of electricity.
Serhiy Kovalenko, CEO of energy supplier Yasno, said that the electricity shortages would be 32% more than expected. β€œIt's a lot and it's a force majeure,” he said

⚑️Zelensky: More than 4.5 million people have no access to electricity due to Russian attacks.

⚑️US official: Iran's claim that it didn't supply drones to Russia after Feb. 24 is false.
Robert Malley, the U.S. special envoy for Iran, said that Iran had supplied dozens of combat drones to Russia during this summer

⚑️WSJ: Senior White House official has discussions with top Putin aides.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan in recent months had discussions with top aides to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, including Yuri Ushakov, Putin's foreign-policy adviser and Russian Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev, the WSJ reports quoting U.S. and allied officials. The talks, which were not disclosed publicly, aimed at reducing the risk of a broader war and warning the Kremlin against using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.
[Patrushev is a real hawk]

slightly lower levels of personnel and lower losses again

Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
Igotjelly · 07/11/2022 07:43

MagicFox · 07/11/2022 07:23

Segue, but enjoying listening to Fiona Hill on this podcast. Crazily long episode but handy time code stamps in the notes: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/lex-fridman-podcast/id1434243584?i=1000585098171

Thanks for this, been listening in wee chunks and very informative. Well worth a listen on the section on nuclear weapons. Fiona argues that Russia is essentially already using his nuclear weapons pretty effectively simply in the threat. She also suggests that in the nuclear energy sites he's already using them essentially as a dirty bomb (e.g. stirring up nuclear waste in Chernobyl and bombing Zaporizhzhia).

ScrollingLeaves · 07/11/2022 08:53

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Β· Today 07:39
ISW Key inflections in ongoing military operations on November 6:

Thank you for these key points.

It is extremely worrying about the Russian obliteration of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. On BBC radio this morning someone came on to explain that unless Ukraine gets more air defence, they
will be bombed to oblivion like Syria, and thousands will die of cold this winter.

Also on BBC news, they think about 25,000 people were killed in the fighting in Mariupol, 5,000 - 7,000 of them under rubble.

More than 1,500 new graves have been dug at a mass burial site near the southern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, according to an analysis of new satellite images carried out for the BBC.

The site north-west of the city consists of a large field of graves that Ukrainian officials and witnesses say contains thousands of bodies.
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63536564

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/11/2022 10:54

I'll join you in the Fiona Hill fan girl section Magic Fox!
After the last discussion about her I listened to an interview she gave a full 12 months (almost to the day) before the war began, the interviewer asked her something along the lines of 'On a scale from 1 to 10 where do you put the threat from Putin to The West?' She answered 9 much to the interviewers surprise and incredulity. How right she was!
I'll definitely listen to the podcast you've linked.

notimagain · 07/11/2022 11:01

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 07/11/2022 10:54

I'll join you in the Fiona Hill fan girl section Magic Fox!
After the last discussion about her I listened to an interview she gave a full 12 months (almost to the day) before the war began, the interviewer asked her something along the lines of 'On a scale from 1 to 10 where do you put the threat from Putin to The West?' She answered 9 much to the interviewers surprise and incredulity. How right she was!
I'll definitely listen to the podcast you've linked.

She's (obviously) been highly regarded by many for some time as an objective commentator.

Problem though is has it suited many politicians to play down the increasing threat to the west from Russia/Putin.......(defence costs money)

I saw a comment in another thread yesterday, NHS related, about the "pointless" (British) army and wondered just exactly where some peoples' heads are right now.....some folks still aren't paying attention.