Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Couple of thoughts - where I am they have now decided to up the H4U payments to £600, which seems far more reasonable. I had a guest for 2 months and got my first payment of 350 several weeks after she had left!

On the Crimea issue, I think that is going to be a major sticking point, and one that needs a major and comprehensive discussion. Perhaps a proper and externally organised referendum? Or as other have suggested, some hardcore security guarantees?

I always think an ‘open and fair’ referendum sounds like a good idea but look at the shit show that was the Brexit referendum. Throw in some external threats and years of propaganda and you have a recipe for disaster.

On the other hand, I imagine there would be an external and independent body overseeing it, like the UN?

Igotjelly · Today 09:53

^Hancox432 · Today 09:42
Interesting part in the Washington post. suggesting the US are asking Ukraine to show openness for negotiation. They claim they are not trying to force them to the table but worry with complete refusal to negotiate that support for Ukraine will wain with Nations not knowing how long they will have to support them for.^

^www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-^negotiations/

Personally I don’t think Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s red lines are unreasonable. However I do think there is a risk of public support waiting, especially as life becomes harder with the cost of living/fuel crisis looming. And if public support wanes I think it’s likely physical, financial etc. support will wane too.

It seems very annoying that Putin could well be proved right with his ‘Just wait till winter’ stance.

I know!

Apologies I've scrolled back and can't find who originally posted this video of the 5 Ukrainian troops staging a last, and seemingly hopeless, stand against the Russian forces who encircled them - the 'cherish every day you have' video.
There are reports from Visegrad 24 that they may have managed to escape and link up with Ukrainian forces. It would be a miracle on a par with the Snake Island 'Russian War Ship go fuck yourself' troops surviving if true.

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1588969867138715649?s=61&t=aUjRLY57CcpN5Zejjty80g

Ukrainian soldier records what he thinks will be his final video as his unit is surrounded by Russian forces.

He says that he will go down Guns blazing.

Some sources say the unit managed to break through the Russian lines and link up with other soldiers.

They had a free and fair referendum on leaving the Russian sphere and becoming an independent nation 1991 and all regions, including Crimea voted to be Ukrainian.

It would seem that much has changed in the decades since.

That’s correct. Of all the regions, Crimea had the lowest yes vote, at 54% if I’m not mistaken but it was still the majority.

My personal opinion, is that Crimea should be neither Ukraine nor Russia but it’s own country, with the lands given back to the descendants of Crimean Tatars who were exiled first by Catherine the Great, and finished off by Stalin.

But I know it’s not going to happen in the near future and neither Ukraine or ru will be willing to do this.

Some sources say the unit managed to break through the Russian lines and link up with other soldiers.

I saw that video elsewhere a few days back along with associated comment that subsequently they managed an orderly withdrawal.

I would just point out, as a Scot who voted no in the referendum and would vote yes now for independence, opinions do change.

They do. And 1991 was a long time ago.

Would be interesting to know how opinions have changed between Feb 24 and now, suspect people would vote very differently.

My personal opinion, is that Crimea should be neither Ukraine nor Russia but it’s own country, with the lands given back to the descendants of Crimean Tatars who were exiled first by Catherine the Great, and finished off by Stalin.

That would be best ... but given their location they will always have one giant or another trying to control them.

DesdamonasHandkerchief Today 17:23
Apologies I've scrolled back and can't find who originally posted this video of the 5 Ukrainian troops staging a last, and seemingly hopeless, stand against the Russian forces who encircled them - the 'cherish every day you have' video.

There are reports from Visegrad 24 that they may have managed to escape and link up with Ukrainian forces. It would be a miracle on a par with the Snake Island 'Russian War Ship go fuck yourself' troops surviving if true.

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1588969867138715649?s=61&t=aUjRLY57CcpN5Zejjty80g

Ukrainian soldier records what he thinks will be his final video as his unit is surrounded by Russian forces.

He says that he will go down Guns blazing.^

Some sources say the unit managed to break through the Russian lines and link up with other soldiers.

I can’t remember either but I’ve been thinking of this soldier and what he said all day, Desdemona. I hope by a miracle this rumour is right and they did break through, though he seemed so sure their hour had come.

If you ever hear for sure they did escape death, please let us know.

Greenshake · Today 17:36
^Igotjelly · Today 17:34
I would just point out, as a Scot who voted no in the referendum and would vote yes now for independence, opinions do change.
Show quote history^

They do. And 1991 was a long time ago

Of course it’s been say to get them to change if fi s of all you deport or kill
the people who lived there, them move in more Russians!

That doesn’t happen in Scotland.

In 1991 they voted to be Ukrainian by a bigger margin than we voted in Brexit.

Typical No went wrong.
’It’s easy to get opinion to change if first you deport or kill ……’

Praying for a miracle

Given the history I am not sure how on earth you would determine who gets to vote in a referendum on Crimea.

It’s massively contentious, but I can see something like this happening.

On the referendum - it is great, but the problem is it would open a Pandorra box. Why not allow a referendum in Donetsk? Lugansk? Etc.
Btw, I was in Crimea many times including in 1991 as a teenager.

I don’t have the answer 😞

And having seen how admirably the Russians have behaved and how well they treat their citizens, naturally the inhabitants of Crimea would vote to join Russia. Even in a compulsory referendum.

On 16 March 2014, a referendum was held with 2 options on the ballot. The first asked the local population if they wanted to join the Russian referendum as a Federal Subject. The second option asked if Crimeans wanted to restore the 1992 constitution and Ukraine's status as part of Russia. Strangely, 95% or so of respondents-without-the-option on that occasion seem not to have voted to remain part of Ukraine. Can't think why....

I don't know where that second "referendum" came from, but it ought to have said "state".

On the referendum - it is great, but the problem is it would open a Pandorra box. Why not allow a referendum in Donetsk? Lugansk? Etc.

They have had “referendums” back in 2014 and then again this September. The problem you would inevitably have is that people that wanted to remain Donetsk and Luhansk to remain in Ukraine, by this point in time have all left if they were able to. Not all, but majority of the remaining population are in favour of these territories being under ru.

personally, I just wish I could go back home one day to visit , last time I was in Donetsk was 2006 and it breaks my heart to think I may never be able to …