Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

@ScrollingLeaves

On BBC radio this morning someone came on to explain that unless Ukraine gets more air defence, they will be bombed to oblivion like Syria, and thousands will die of cold this winter.

The problem isn't just "more" air defence, it's also getting the right sort...and I'm no sure anybody knows what that is.

If what's in the public domain is correct the main and continuing problem seems to be the Iranian supplied drones - problems being:

They are launched from (possibly) mobile sites within Russia so those can't be attacked ATM...

Mobile launch sites mean no fixed, predictable inbound routes or parts thereof.

The drones are hard to detect at long/medium range ( due to both to their low speed and low radar cross section).

The low speed/radar cross section combination also makes them hard for Air defence fighters to engage and there's a danger if there is an engagement you end up trading the drone for a expensive and rare air defence fighter..

defence-blog.com/ukraine-says-its-mig-29-jet-downed-by-kamikaze-drone-shrapnel/

If they are hard to detect at range then the logical thing to do is to concentrate what short range air defences you do have ( shorter range SAM, guns) around your key targets such as power stations, but then a successful close range engagement risks dropping the drone on the adjacent civil population..

Solutions I''ve seen suggested range from tethered balloons around probable targets( the old style barrage balloons, which still raise the question of where does a crippled drone end upexploding), through to lots of light aircraft armed with machine guns roaming the countryside (no good in bad weather and/or at night.)

There are lots of similarities with the V1/V2 campaign in WW2 and that was only really stopped by the allies overrunning the launch sites........

@notimagain · re your post today 11:33 in response to the BBC news I had reported about Ukraine bedding more air defence.

Thank you for you detailed answers about all the difficulties that are involved in trying to stop or intercept the Iranian drones especially as they are launched from mobile launchers in Russia.

I wonder if you know what we or America would do if we were being attacked in this way?

Magic Fox Thank you for the link to Fiona Hill’s podcast. I have the greatest respect for her and intend to listen later.

I wonder if you know what we or America would do if we were being attacked in this way?

I would like to hear notimagain's answer to this as well. My opinion is that in addition to using all available air defense measures, we'd attack the units operating the drones, their bases, and logistics by all available means. There's a reason why American B-52 heavy bombers have been deployed to the UK.

It is fundamentally different though unfortunately for the simple reason that Ukraine isn't a NATO member.

True. I was responding to a hypothetical question on how America would respond to such an attack. The principle remains the same, though. You have to degrade the adversary's ability to launch such attacks.

Ah sorry missed the hypothetical part!

I haven't heard the BBC piece but I guess it's a result of a research paper that the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) have just put out on "The Russian Air War and Ukrainian Requirements for Air Defence". It's a long and definitely a bit of technical read, a link to the summary here:

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/russian-air-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

If you download the pdf that's linked via that page you can read the full 44 page paper.

If you don't fancy reading all of that the current problems get aired in Chapter IV (page 35 onwards) and the specific difficulties posed by the Shahed-136 get a bit of analysis on page 36...

What the US or UK would do in similar circumstances? Such an attack would bring NATO and the North Atlantic Treaty Article 5 into play so it's hard to draw a parallel...

MissConductUS · Today 14:13
I wonder if you know what we or America would do if we were being attacked in this way?

I would like to hear notimagain's answer to this as well. My opinion is that in addition to using all available air defense measures, we'd attack the units operating the drones, their bases, and logistics by all available means. There's a reason why American B-52 heavy bombers have been deployed to the UK.

Yes, I was thinking send drones and planes into Russia to look for the mobile launchers then bomb them, but this would be seen as inadmissible escalation I suppose.

Why it is OK for Russians to annihilate Ukrainian citizens by freezing them to death etc but not be attacked themselves seems wrong.

Igotjelly regardless of Ukraine’s own limitations caused by not being in NATO, I’d be still interested to know from notimagain what the U.K. or U.S. would do If they were being attacked from mobile launchers in a neighbouring country

@notimagain · Today 14:28
I crossed posts with you.
Thank you very much, I’ll read the pages you mention. Though I am not sure about reading the whole 44 pages.you posted, I do appreciate you providing that resource. There may be many others here who would indeed like to read and learn from the full pdf.

Are the ‘threats’ by MTG to not give Ukraine a penny if republicans take the house plausible? That’s probably to @MissConductUS Such a worrying time in Americas changing political landscape.

I agree it is a worrying and stressful time in American politics. The short answer is that the threads by MTG are not plausible. I answered this question at some length last week, so I'll link to that post.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4661749-ukraine-invasion-part-34?reply=121264303&utm_source=thread&utm_medium=share

You're welcome...

Yep, The full RUSI article is a bit heavy, FWIW the first chapter attempts to give a short account of the whole air war so far. Even if you decide to skip the techy stuff like the various aircraft/missile types it's still clear there has been far more ebb and flow to the air campaign than have been (perhaps) led or allowed to believe.

More worrying is that it appears on several occasions the Russian Air Force were willing to adapt and modify their tactics to counter any evolving threat to their operation.

I think the warning given in that article in several places that the west must not become complacent about the air war is probably very sensible...

Thanks for link to fuller explanation @MissConductUS

I do wonder if there’s a knee jerk response by some Republicans to say ’no’ to anything initiated or supported by Biden eg Ukraine. Just ‘because’. Cross house/senate bipartisan work now seems rare and largely a thing of the past.

It’s incredible to me that what with the capital hill storming, trump’s taxes/taking classified documents back to mar a lago etc., obvious Republican nutters beyond MGT, and in particular the push back against womens reproductive rights in Republican controlled states that there is not a groundswell of democratic support. Yet, calls seem to be for the house to be retaken.

Its all very worrying. Now reports of the US encouraging zelensky to enter into talks with Putin because of donor fatigue. We all know how well that would go…

You're most welcome.

I don't want to derail the thread or get too far off topic, but since the election will have consequences for Ukraine and elsewhere, I'll try to clarify things a bit.

Trump had a lot of influence in the Republican primaries but very little in tomorrow's general elections. He may have even less after tomorrow because quite a few of the candidates he backed were so extreme that they will probably lose, which reflects badly on him. So it may be a bit of an own goal for him. He's not on the ballot, so his antics and legal problems are not front of mind for most voters.

The out-of-power party always picks up seats in the midterms, so the Republicans taking a majority in the House is to be expected, as it's currently a very close split. Paradoxically, the more seats they take, the more the Republicans can compromise and make deals because they won't need the votes of every last nutter to get something passed. The Senate will be much closer, but the thing to keep in mind it takes a 60-seat majority to get most legislation passed. The only exception is budgets and spending authorizations, which can be passed with a simple majority.

The upshot is that I don't think there will be much done in congress for the next two years unless it's spending or budget-related, which funding for Ukraine will be. The Republicans will also be distracted by conducting lots of investigations into Hunter Biden and various actions of the Biden administration, like the shambolic withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I'll shut up now. Apologies if I've bored you all to tears. 😄

mobile.twitter.com/Norma_Cenva/status/1589044964515713024

news.sky.com/story/us-midterms-latest-is-bidens-popularity-a-problem-for-the-democrats-12740728?postid=4829417#liveblog-body

Prigozhin admits meddling in US elections and says Russia will continue to do so in future.

Not at all, it’s fascinating.

@MissConductUS that is most helpful. It would have been impossible for me to work out the intricacies for the US political system and would have otherwise got worried than need be.

Is there any substance to the Washington Post article that US officials are encouraging Zelensky to negotiate for peace?

Regarding Twitter, does anyone have access to Bloomberg?

it seems that Twitter wants to rehire some of the staff it fired :D

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-06/twitter-now-asks-some-fired-workers-to-please-come-back?leadSource=uverify%20wall

Interesting that he’s being so open about it.

Plus, I’m hoping that the senior US Military leadership will retain a large degree of control/input into support for Ukraine. I hope imagine that they both understand what’s at stake and see the opportunity to increase military spending. My impression was they despaired over Trump.

Is there any substance to the Washington Post article that US officials are encouraging Zelensky to negotiate for peace?

It seems more like they encouraged him to signal an openness to negotiations, not to actually engage in them now. I don't have access to the Washington Post, but this is a recap:

Washington Post: U.S. Urging Ukraine To Open Talks With Russia

The United States is privately encouraging Ukraine to signal an openness to negotiate with Russia, The Washington Post reported, as the State Department said Moscow was escalating the war and did not seriously wish to engage in peace talks. The newspaper cited unnamed sources as saying that the request by American officials was not aimed at pushing Ukraine to the negotiating table, but a calculated attempt to ensure that Kyiv maintains the support of other nations. To read the full report, click here.

So it seems more public relations oriented, not any real pressure to negotiate, which would be daft at this point.

Plus, I’m hoping that the senior US Military leadership will retain a large degree of control/input into support for Ukraine. I hope imagine that they both understand what’s at stake and see the opportunity to increase military spending. My impression was they despaired over Trump.

Input, certain, control no. Foreign affairs is clearly a political domain, not a military one. That said, Loyd Austin and Mark Milley see support for Ukraine as a great strategic opportunity to do good in the world and degrade the Russian's ability to threaten others. And yes, the military leadership is not at all a fan of the former President. He won't be winning the Thayer Award, that's for sure.

@MissConductUS So it seems more public relations oriented, not any real pressure to negotiate, which would be daft at this point.

Thanks for explaining re: Washington Post. That makes sense.

They are going to rebuild Mriya, the world's biggest cargo plane that could and did take a space shuttle on its back

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
@IAPonomarenko
·
1h
There shouldn’t be a Ukraine without a Mriya
So AntonovCompany says it has initiated works to complete the second Antonov An-225 Mriya aircraft!

Please indulge me (I believe swearing is allowed on MN), this is a photo I took last time I was in Kyiv (2016), I wish I bought some of these toilet paper rolls. I reckon if Ukraine is able to sort out exports of these, they could probably raise enough funds to buy some more armour 😀