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Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

988 replies

MagicFox · 23/10/2022 21:29

Welcome all πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
Thread gallery
80
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 06/11/2022 00:20

Oops didn't attach the clip from Julia Davis:

https://twitter.com/eliotgreenspan/status/1589046687078965248?s=61&t=L2xxjUoucNrAwBu1rXD11A

Meanwhile in Russia: a pundit argues that younger men should be trained and sent into combat, so there are no widows or children to pay when they get killed. Another argument is that Russians over 40 are too worn out by alcohol consumption to run, jump or be any good in combat.

notimagain · 06/11/2022 07:02

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

It seems France has been quietly sending a fair old bit of gear in the form of fast vehicles:

It's been known for some weeks (but as you say generally not shouted from the rooftops in the MSM) that amongst other things the French were planning on sending wheeled armoured vehicles such as VABs,

The armoured vehicle experts on another forum had been spotting them in some of the images coming out of the area for quite some time now.

mezha.media/en/2022/06/28/vab-french-armed-personnel-carrier-for-the-armed-forces/

ScrollingLeaves · 06/11/2022 07:49

DesdamonasHandkerchief Β· Today 00:20
Oops didn't attach the clip from Julia Davis:

twitter.com/eliotgreenspan/status/1589046687078965248?s=61&t=L2xxjUoucNrAwBu1rXD11A

Meanwhile in Russia: a pundit argues that younger men should be trained and sent into combat, so there are no widows or children to pay when they get killed. Another argument is that Russians over 40 are too worn out by alcohol consumption to run, jump or be any good in combat

Imagine advocating sending every 18 year old (your country’s future) to an unnecessary war. No wonder they are drinks by 40 living in a country that values them so little and lies to them.

As I remember it, at the start of this Russian invasion, the Russian conscripts’ families would get about Β£60 - 70,000 if they were killed.

Some of these people on the television seem to be mad in their viciousness, and given a lot of freedom to get β€˜carried away’ to use the phrase of that other one ( suspended for a week) who wanted Ukrainian children drowned or burned alive.

Hancox432 · 06/11/2022 09:42

Interesting part in the Washington post. suggesting the US are asking Ukraine to show openness for negotiation. They claim they are not trying to force them to the table but worry with complete refusal to negotiate that support for Ukraine will wain with Nations not knowing how long they will have to support them for.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/

Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 09:53

Hancox432 · 06/11/2022 09:42

Interesting part in the Washington post. suggesting the US are asking Ukraine to show openness for negotiation. They claim they are not trying to force them to the table but worry with complete refusal to negotiate that support for Ukraine will wain with Nations not knowing how long they will have to support them for.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/

Personally I don’t think Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s red lines are unreasonable. However I do think there is a risk of public support waiting, especially as life becomes harder with the cost of living/fuel crisis looming. And if public support wanes I think it’s likely physical, financial etc. support will wane too.

Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 09:56

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news-nuclear-weapons-kyiv-b2218265.html?amp

In other news, Putin playing mind games with Macron and the West again. We all know he made a point of telling Macron absolute bullshit in the run up to the invasion.

Greenshake · 06/11/2022 10:31

Interesting that nobody seems able to clarify when that Macron-Putin conversation occurred.

notimagain · 06/11/2022 10:40

Greenshake · 06/11/2022 10:31

Interesting that nobody seems able to clarify when that Macron-Putin conversation occurred.

You beat me to it….is this a recent conversation or are the Indy, Mail and other outlets covering reports that have only just surfaced about a conversation that happened months ago?

Some sections of the popular press certainly seem to enjoy flagging up the nuclear issues on a regular basis.

Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 10:42

notimagain · 06/11/2022 10:40

You beat me to it….is this a recent conversation or are the Indy, Mail and other outlets covering reports that have only just surfaced about a conversation that happened months ago?

Some sections of the popular press certainly seem to enjoy flagging up the nuclear issues on a regular basis.

Agree.

Hancox432 · 06/11/2022 10:44

notimagain · 06/11/2022 10:40

You beat me to it….is this a recent conversation or are the Indy, Mail and other outlets covering reports that have only just surfaced about a conversation that happened months ago?

Some sections of the popular press certainly seem to enjoy flagging up the nuclear issues on a regular basis.

Nukes haven't been mentioned for about a week or so, so wouldn't surprise me if the media jus brought it up again for some clicks.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 06/11/2022 11:07

Day 255, November 5, 2022. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin broadcast
Posted on 06 November 2022

Battlefield Update
A series of unsuccessful RU attacks in various locations. The front line shows only small, tactical-level changes.

πŸ”₯* Svatove-Kreminna*
UA has fire control over the Svatove-Kreminna road. The enemy failed to push UA out of those positions.

πŸ”₯* Soledar*
Unsuccessful RU attempts to break through on Soledar, where RU now focuses its main efforts after losing ground in Bakhmut.

πŸ”₯* Pavlivka – Vuhledar*
Failed RU attack with heavy losses thanks to UA artillery.

πŸ”₯* Kherson*
UA artillery continues to deliver precise strikes on enemy positions.

πŸ”₯* Mobilization*
Data on Russian mobilized: 238K drafted instead of the announced 300K. Due to the regular autumn conscription that just began, military enlistment offices cannot cope with increased demand for their limited supplies of clothes, food, accommodations, weapons, and military equipment.
RU failed to draft a million troops under the guise of 300 thousand. Mobilization is unlikely to become a strategic factor in this war. Of 230K mobilized, 43% are receiving training and being equipped; others are sitting idle in gyms, schools, and other temporary accommodations.
In the theater of war (UA, Belarus, RU border regions), there are 65-85 thousand mobilized, and 50-65K are in UA proper. Calculations are complicated by too many categories: draftees by enlisting offices, prisoners, β€œvolunteers” who are basically professional military who cannot discontinue their contract, conscripts forced to sign contracts, etc.

πŸ”₯* Iran*
Iran admitted drone deliveries to RU prior to the war. According to Arestovych, Iran is going through the stages of anger, denial, and now bargaining. Extensive cumulative evidence from various governments pressured Iran to admit, but only deliveries before Feb 24.
Admitting Iran’s supply of weapons during the conflict violates its neutrality; it will change its international status. Iran may lose its European allies interested in buying Iranian oil and gas. Anticipated further statements from Iran: we did not give RU the right to use our weapons in Ukraine.
What could Russia give Iran in exchange for drones? Arestovych quotes Podolyak (adviser to the Head of the Office of the Pres of UA) who calls for a different approach from the West and Middle East to address the threat from Iran if RU is helping Iran with its nuclear program.

πŸ”₯* Starlink*
According to CNN, 1.3 thousand Starlink terminals out of 25K in UA are disabled. Arestovych confirmed that some terminals are disconnected for reasons that cannot be disclosed (not due to financial reasons as stated by CNN).

πŸ”₯* Undefeated HIMARS*
The RU army has not destroyed a single HIMARS in Ukraine. Several reasons for their invincibility: high mobility, difficult terrain (forests, gullies, capital structures), colossal losses among RU special forces who could do reconnaissance; RU aviation flies about 20km into the UA territory while HIMARS can strike with long-range missiles.
Also, UA succeeds in coordination efforts and distraction operations. For the first two months, UA used HIMARS only at night. Now they use them during the daytime as well.

πŸ”₯* China and RU nuclear threat*
Current European-Chinese relations created negative dynamics for Moscow on the eve of the G20 summit: the nuclear threat from the RF is statistically very low.
When RU began to target UA civil infrastructure, they gave up the option to use nuclear weapons. These are two different strategies. A nuclear weapon is an instant escalation leading to an uncontrollable situation and war with NATO. Destruction of infrastructure is a prolonged manageable strategy to win time: freezing UA and Europe, waiting on US elections, etc.
Still, if this statistically unlikely event takes place, Putin has been warned by the West of the catastrophic consequences for him personally. China and India stated their clear position about how disastrously bad this decision would be for Russia.
China is Putin’s last hope to sell his energy carriers as the Russian oil embargo comes into effect on December 5 and Great Britain bans services to transport and ensure RU oil.

πŸ”₯* Riots in Russia*
There were 3 riots among the mobilized; the latest was in Kazan where 2000 recruits threatened the commanding officer. Their main complaints were lack of food, water, and firewood; rusty machine guns; no laundry facilities. Due to the housing shortage, new recruits live in tents.
If only 43% of the mobilized are in the theater of war, then 57% are in a similar situation. Large concentrations of idle men living in inhumane conditions will produce angry mobs attacking anything and everyone. Eventually, the rage of the fuming mobilized will be directed at Putin who broke the social contract and delegitimized his regime with mobilization.

Greenshake · 06/11/2022 11:46

I would very much like if, when this is over, the behaviour of some parts of the media is given thorough examination. Some of the coverage has been beyond sensationalist to the point of being grossly irresponsible.

notimagain · 06/11/2022 11:52

Greenshake · 06/11/2022 11:46

I would very much like if, when this is over, the behaviour of some parts of the media is given thorough examination. Some of the coverage has been beyond sensationalist to the point of being grossly irresponsible.

Agreed..(but it won't happen)....

Igotjelly · 06/11/2022 12:08

This is the same media that hacked murdered children’s phones for a bit of gossip. Integrity is not a virtue many of them possess.

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 15:06

Euan MacDonald AT Euan_MacDonald
Residents of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv should stock up on essentials and be prepared to evacuate the city if Russian missile attacks knock out power, heat and water supplies completely, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on national television on Nov. 5.

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 15:12

Reports are circulating that Sunak intends to end the homes for ukraine scheme.

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 15:16

Also reports from Russian sources that Kherson has lost electricity 'due to terrorist activity'. There is a video circulating reportedly showing the inside of the Kherson Regional Administration building. It is apparently trashed but empty of soliders. However significant amounts of ammunition have been abandoned and now taken by partisans.

miceonabranch · 06/11/2022 15:24

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 15:12

Reports are circulating that Sunak intends to end the homes for ukraine scheme.

πŸ˜₯

I think that's very disappointing and typical tory behaviour of course.

miceonabranch · 06/11/2022 15:28

I wonder if Zelenskyy will come under pressure not to try to reclaim Crimea, but to be satisfied with the old pre 2014 borders. Perhaps if the borders could be strengthened and patrolled and Ukraine joins NATO that would be a reasonable compromise.

Personally I hope Russia is broken up and then the issue of Crimea can be addressed another day. Russia is a rogue state and deserves to be broken up. I hope Ukraine can join NATO before 2024 when I fear Trump might be re elected.

miceonabranch · 06/11/2022 15:29

Anyone in Ukraine who wants to live under Russian rule should have the decency to sod off over the border into Russia.

Fladdermus · 06/11/2022 15:41

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 15:12

Reports are circulating that Sunak intends to end the homes for ukraine scheme.

What will happen to those refugees?

Hancox432 · 06/11/2022 16:03

miceonabranch · 06/11/2022 15:28

I wonder if Zelenskyy will come under pressure not to try to reclaim Crimea, but to be satisfied with the old pre 2014 borders. Perhaps if the borders could be strengthened and patrolled and Ukraine joins NATO that would be a reasonable compromise.

Personally I hope Russia is broken up and then the issue of Crimea can be addressed another day. Russia is a rogue state and deserves to be broken up. I hope Ukraine can join NATO before 2024 when I fear Trump might be re elected.

It's a hard one. Should Ukraine have Crimea back?... Absolutely. Is Crimea the line in which Nuclear weapons would be used?.... Some people believe so. It would need some very strong security guarantees. Even if Ukraine don't join NATO there will surely be a future guarantee that if Russia tries to invade again then NATO would become directly involved instantly.

I do think it's incredibly unlikely that a deal will be done without both sides giving concessions. So I do believe the Crimea may remain as it is right now if a deal is to be done.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 06/11/2022 16:04

miceonabranch
I wonder if Zelenskyy will come under pressure not to try to reclaim Crimea, but to be satisfied with the old pre 2014 borders.

I thought the pre-2014 borders included Crimea in Ukraine not in Russia?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 06/11/2022 16:18

Yeah, the war in 2014 was when Russia invaded Crimea.

A bit late, but:

ISW Key Takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevheniy Prigozhin seeks to obfuscate his efforts to strengthen his independent power base with an appeal to the concept of Russia’s historic unity.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian confirmed that Iran began providing Russia drones before February 24, but strangely denied that Russian forces have used them in combat.

DNR military commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky claimed that Russian friendly fire may have caused up to 60% of total Russian losses since mid-May.

Ukrainian troops reportedly continued counteroffensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued to set up defensive positions along the Dnipro River.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian logistics and transportation in Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to attack around Bakhmut and claimed unspecified advances.

Russian forces continued unsuccessful offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area and in western Donetsk.

Continued poor conditions for mobilized soldiers catalyzed a large-scale protest in Kazan.

Unknown actors reportedly attempted to assassinate high-profile Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Supreme Court Judge Aleksandr Nikulin.

Russia continues to deploy personnel to staff administrative positions in occupied areas.

Russian forces continued forced evacuations in Kherson Oblast. Over 80% of Kherson residents reportedly have evacuated. [given how little their care for civilian deaths, this is about a power play not care for the civilians. "Either you become one of our resources by joining us or you die" seems to be the attitude]

+++

⚑️ Politico: Russia hasn’t destroyed (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/politico-russia-hasnt-destroyed-single-himars-in-ukraine) single HIMARS in Ukraine.
Politico cited an unnamed Pentagon official saying that Russian forces haven't destroyed any of the U.S.-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, despite the claims in Russian media.

⚑️ Zelensky: Next week, Ukraine to start fundraising (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelensky-ukraine-to-start-fundraising-for-marine-drones-fleet) for marine drones fleet.

⚑️IAEA: External power at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant restored.
Two days after the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost all access to external electricity following Russian shelling, it was reconnected to power, Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said on Nov. 5.

⚑️Russian media: Hundreds of Russian conscripts killed in Luhansk Oblast (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-media-hundreds-of-russian-consripts-killed-in-luhansk-oblast).
According to Russian media outlet Verstka, Ukrainian forces attacked the battalion of mobilized Russians, killing hundreds near Makiivka village in the embattled Luhansk Oblast on Nov. 2.

⚑️ Russia kidnaps 34 children from Kherson Oblast.

⚑️ New York Times: Kyiv to evacuate all civilians in case of total blackout.
Kyiv authorities have begun planning the evacuation of the city's three million residents if the Ukrainian capital suffers a complete blackout, according to the New York Times. [there is controversy over this claim, some say the Ukrainians have said it, others say they haven't]

see: ⚑️Kyiv City Council: β€˜There are currently no reasons to talk about evacuation.’

⚑️ Governor: Air Force hits 7 Russian positions in Luhansk Oblast.

⚑️ Accounting Chamber: Russia's damage to Ukrainian soil, air, forests worth at least $37 billion.
Almost one-third of Ukrainian forests – three million hectares – has already been affected; some of the forests are lost forever, the government agency wrote.
"Russia has also turned our fertile black soil into the world's most contaminated with explosive materials land," it stated.

⚑️Russian mercenary group Wagner to create paramilitary training centers near Ukraine’s border.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said the so-called β€œtraining centers" located in the Kursk and Belgorod regions northeast of Ukraine’s border should consist of residents of these regions.

⚑️Ministry: Russia damaged over 1,000 hospitals since Feb. 24.
Russian forces damaged 1,100 medical facilities and destroyed 144 of them over the course of the nine-month-long full-scale invasion, the Health Ministry reported on Nov. 6.

⚑️EU Commission to propose monthly package of up to 1.5 billion euros to Ukraine for 2023.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told President Volodymyr Zelensky the support would contribute to covering Ukraine’s needs in 2023.
The package, totaling up to 18 billion euros, will cover part of the country’s state deficit through long-term loans.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 06/11/2022 16:43

RedToothBrush · 06/11/2022 15:12

Reports are circulating that Sunak intends to end the homes for ukraine scheme.

What's does this mean though? It's my understanding that the scheme is struggling to find new hosts and a fairly low percentage of existing host are willing to take in different Ukrainian refugees when their existing hosting arrangements either come to an end or break down.
There was talk of the Β£350 monthly host payment being doubled but last I heard this initiative had stalled. (Despite this probably being the cheapest option available for housing Ukrainian refugees.)
It seemed to me as though there was no need to officially end this arrangement as without new hosts coming forward it comes to a natural end.