Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

Ranevskaya· Today 13:52

^ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Yesterday 22:18
@Ranevskaya it's very good to hear your viewpoint. Welcome.^

Thank you very much! I am really cautious about posting, because we obviously are living in very different information bubbles. Even though I can read English, Russian and Ukrainian as well. Will stick to the personal perspective.

Your personal perspective will be interesting and important for those of us looking on from another part of the world. Thank you for sharing it.

Yesterday, Desdemonashankerchief posted a story about a Ukrainian man whose 3 children had been sent to a large Moscow children’s home on the day he had been released from being a Russian prisoner. Then he heard that the children were about to be adopted. He was helped to get to Moscow and get the children released to him by an efficient, well coordinated, and generous effort by Russian volunteers to whom he had turned in desperation. I was wondering if you know more about the demographic of these groups of volunteers?

Well spotted that PragerU are a bunch of illiberal knobheads with a far-right evangelist Christian agenda.

Oops sorry meant for another thread !

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 11:10
Not much context on Twitter for this, not sure where it's happening (In Ukraine I presume?) but it sounds positive:

History about to be made! First Congress of Peoples Deputies.

Members of Parliament and other former elected leaders of Russia 🇷🇺 who are united in their oppostion to Putin, support for Ukraine’s 🇺🇦 sovereignty, and desire for democracy

Thank you, Desdemona.
From that Twitter which seems to herald a drop of hope:
Every day, more who burn for truth, like Nemtsov & Politkovskaya, are murdered

Does anyone here know about them,? Were they credible opponents?

blueshoes, thank you

ScrollingLeaves there are all kinds of volunteers and all kinds of stories. Generally, volunteer movement is well developed, particularly in Moscow. So some of the existing groups started helping children and families, there are thousands if not millions of refugees with children. This re-unification story seems very possible.
Some other people criticize the non-governmental volunteer groups heavily for 'supporting the government line' or help only those refugees who go though Russia to other countries and not those who chose to stay. So the different opinions and attitudes are visible also in the NGO sector.

Welcome, @Ranevskaya. We have a really diverse group of people on this thread who have so much to contribute, I'm so glad you've joined us.

Jiminy Cricket, Ukraine is getting Reaper Drones!

General Atomics Plans To Providing Ukraine With Own UAVs

These are huge - 66 foot wingspan and a 1700kg payload. They cruise at 300mph and carry Hellfire missiles, laser guided bombs and Stinger air to air missiles. Loiter time fully loaded is 14 hours. This could change the rules of the game as HIMARS has done. These are far more capable than the Bayraktar drones currently in use.

The same article appeared in Janes, so very reliable.

www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-general-atomics-committed-to-providing-mq-9-uavs-to-ukraine

This is just fabulous news for Ukraine. 😁

This is good news indeed. So very generous of the US and General Atomics. A 66 foot wingspan is equivalent to a 6 storey building. It is a big'un. I believe it was a Reaper strike that killed Iran's General Soleimani in Baghdad in January 2020

A 66 foot wingspan is equivalent to a 6 storey building. It is a big'un.

Short diversion into aerodynamics - Long thin chord wings (aka high aspect ratio) are just the job for sub-sonic flight when you need low fuel consumption …helps gives long loiter time, at especially altitude (cf. the U2)….

notimagain, the RAF flies a squadron of Reapers from Waddington. You blokes can help train the Ukrainians.

mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1588929303194263555 assassination attempt on one of the judges in Donetsk who sentenced the American and British fighters

Ranevskaya· Today 14:55

blueshoes, thank you

ScrollingLeaves there are all kinds of volunteers and all kinds of stories. Generally, volunteer movement is well developed, particularly in Moscow. So some of the existing groups started helping children and families, there are thousands if not millions of refugees with children. This re-unification story seems very possible.
Some other people criticize the non-governmental volunteer groups heavily for 'supporting the government line' or help only those refugees who go though Russia to other countries and not those who chose to stay. So the different opinions and attitudes are visible also in the NGO sector

Thank you for answering, Ranevskaya.
I think that even if they only help those who go through Russia, still that is important. So many Ukrainians would be trapped in Russia without this help.

True.. I think the RAF Reaper crews still do most of their initial training States side so maybe there scope for at least some joint training input.

MissConductUS thank you!

ScrollingLeaves I just wanted to highlight that there are different opinions. Some NGO workers and volunteers probably tend to have anti-government views more often than general public, but they also tend to forget about everything political if help is needed here and now. On the other hand, there are also many government sponsored/supported volunteer groups.
As for the displaced people - many leave, but many stay or even come back from Europe after a while, for various reasons. There are many new kids in schools.

I was pondering today on what decisive turning points we would need to see, in order for the war to end. Ukraine's been very clear about its negotiation lines (no Putin, withdrawal, etc.).

I can't see it being Kherson's liberation (although it sounds like it won't be long), or taking back the oblasts. I think it would need something like the loss of Crimea for it to galvanise a regime change. Either that or waiting for Putin to die of I'll health.

Was interesting hearing Zelenskey talk for the first time in a while in his nightly address about negotiations or peace talks etc last night. I was surprised he didn't mention Crimea atall. I do think it Russia offered then pre February 24th land that Ukraine may consider it. Russia keep Crimea and would spin to their own people that Ukraine was "Dinazaified"

I have no idea how negotiations work and if the west have any influence over what ukraine would be willing to accept.

@Hancox432 on the issue of Zelensky not mentioning Crimea last night, I can't say to have watched that address but just 3 days ago, Zelensky was quoted as saying:

en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/869670.html
Answering the question of what he would do after the victory, Zelensky said: "After the victory, I will go to Crimea. I want to see the sea. It won’t be in winter, what should I do at sea in winter?"

Oh yes, he still wants Crimea.

I sincerely hope Ukraine get all their land back, however it would very much weaken Zelensky's hand to admit he'd give up Crimea (or the Donbas/Luhansk) at this point, he has to start from a maximalist stance in order to find a compromise with the aggressors that Ukraine could live with.
I can't help but feel he'd accept the loss of Crimea, or at least put it to a referendum, to bring this bloody war to an end as long as he had cast iron guarantees that Russia couldn't invade again - maybe backed up by a group of sympathetic NATO countries who were prepared to commit to boots on the ground if they did, but I do think negotiating with someone other than Putin might be a line in the sand for him. It's certainly become personal for him.

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1588969867138715649 not sure if you have seen this it's heartbreaking

So very brave and sad. Last stand.

"We are being shelled mercilessly. I don't know what to tell you. Cherish every day you have"

Tim White AT TWMCltd
I reported a big attack by #Ukraine on Russian forces in #Svatove, but I don't even think anyone guessed how big.

Quoting survivors, Vyorstka media in Russia says 500+ may have been killed, the rest were abandoned. Relatives in Voronezh protest outside local govt buildings

It's being reported by other media in Voronezh that of 570 forcibly mobilised to the battalion, just 29 people survived, of whom 12 were wounded.

minsmum · Today 19:45
mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1588969867138715649 not sure if you have seen this it's heartbreaking

minsmum, it is heartbreaking. He says at the end, “Cherish everyday”, but we won’t really, we’ll just carry on taking our days for granted. We must think of him and his great spirit.

I had got used to the idea of Ukraine prevailing but this is a reminder of the brutal reality.

@RedToothBrush

Svatove sounds like a hell on earth. I cannot imagine so many dead RU in one place being trampled by the next wave of RU soldiers. If the ground is muddy, the bodies must literally be mashed into the earth.

Your post from yesterday -

Several slightly different translations of the following floating around tonight.
The russians are trying to break through the defence near Svatove-Kreminna and are shelling already liberated territories.
This was announced by the head of OMA, Serhiy Haidai.
"They are walking over the corpses of their own soldiers: the russians are trying to break through our defences near Svatove-Kreminna. The land of Luhansk is littered with the bodies of dead orcs.
Every time during an attack, the russians send a platoon of their soldiers on "reconnaissance", in which they cannot survive. They die, and the next ones follow, and more and more... And each new attack is accompanied by the russians "trampling" their 200s.
Of course, no one takes away the bodies. For them, the concept of the value of life does not exist. Only "cannon fodder", - wrote Haidai.

"They are walking over the corpses of their own soldiers:

this sounds like the reports from WW2

It seems France has been quietly sending a fair old bit of gear in the form of fast vehicles:

david D.
@secretsqrl123
·
45m
Replying to

@praisethesteph
when people ask me why i crack on ger. and not france for not sending vehicles and equipment this is the reason.
fr has quietly been flooding the zone with hundreds of fast armored vehicles without taking credit for it. but if you have followed the sightings you would know that

This beggars belief 🤯