ISW Key Takeaways
The Russian military is likely trying to use mobilized personnel to restart its Donetsk offensive but will likely fail to achieve operationally significant gains.
Russian forces are setting conditions for an orderly withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River to avoid a rout in Kherson Oblast.
President Vladimir Putin is likely setting conditions to continue mobilization covertly despite claims that partial mobilization produced sufficient forces.
Russia’s costly force generation measures will likely continue to weigh on the Russian economy and generate social tensions.
Iran is likely exploiting Russian reliance on Iranian-made weapon systems to request Russian assistance with its nuclear program.
Russian forces may be deploying extreme measures against deserting personnel in an attempt to respond to severe morale issues.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove.
Russian forces continued to prepare existing and new defensive lines in Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces continued to conduct offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
Russian forces continued forced evacuation measures in Kherson Oblast.
Russian and occupation officials continued to set measures for the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to the Russian Federation.
(it still does my head in to think of a barrier line of troops employed to shoot their own people. Apart from the utter failure to -lead- them that this implies ... I suppose it's a good thing because at least those soldiers are aiming at their own folk and not at Ukrainians!)
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⚡️ Zelensky: Ukraine receives first batch of BMP-1 armored vehicles from Greece.
⚡️ Putin: 318,000 men drafted in Russia for its war against Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin said on Nov. 4 that Russia had conscripted 318,000 citizens, 49,000 of which are already fighting in Ukraine, according to Russian state-controlled news agency TASS.
⚡️ Financial Times: Collaborators publicly hang woman for speaking out against Russia.
Pro-Russian collaborators allegedly hanged local nurse Tetiana Mudrenko, 56, in what was a public execution on the streets of occupied Skadovsk in Kherson Oblast, Financial Times wrote, citing Natalia Chorna, the sister of the deceased, and several witnesses
⚡️ Mayor: Only 44 days in Mykolaiv without Russia's strikes since February.
Russia ordered up to 70,000 residents within a 15-kilometer zone east of the Dnieper to be resettled deeper into the region.
⚡️ Reznikov: Russia may withdraw forces from parts of Kherson.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Nov. 4. that he believes Russia may withdraw its forces from parts of Kherson Oblast.
G7 establishes ‘coordination mechanism’ to help Ukraine restore energy, water infrastructure.
⚡️ General Staff: Russian troops regroup in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported that Russian forces moved its personnel and closed checkpoints and the commandant's office in Kamianka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
⚡️ Economy Ministry: Number of unemployed in Ukraine to reach 2.6 million by 2023.
About 2.6 million people in Ukraine will be unemployed by the end of 2022, almost twice as many as in 2021, Deputy Economy Minister Tetiana Berezhna told Ukrainske Radio. "Eight candidates are now competing for one job," said Berezhna
⚡️ US National Security Advisor arrives in Kyiv on unannounced visit.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan arrived in Kyiv on Nov. 4 to meet with President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak.
Ukraine war latest: US to send additional $400 million in military aid (kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-us-to-send-additional-400-million-in-military-aid)
The U.S. Department of Defense announced on Nov. 4 it will send Ukraine $400 million more in military aid, which includes contracts for 1,100 Phoenix Ghost drones, 45 refurbished T-72 tanks, and refurbishment of 250 HAWK surface-to-air missiles for eventual transfer to Ukraine, among other systems.
⚡️ CNN: 1,300 Starlinks in Ukraine go offline due to funding issues.
On Oct. 24, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said Starlink will continue to operate regardless of Pentagon funding [I think the West is starting to turn on Musk]
Ukraine in critical need of long-range weapons to counter Iranian missiles
(kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-in-critical-need-of-long-range-weapons-to-counter-iranian-missiles)
Ukraine’s air defense, at a high cost, is an effective counter to Russian-operated Iranian Shahed-136 drones.
But it will find it extremely hard to counter Iranian-made ballistic missiles Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, expected to be shipped to Russia.
Russian occupying forces loot Kherson art museum (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russian-occupying-forces-loot-kherson-art-museum).
⚡️Reuters: Russia seeks sanctions exemption in grain deal with Ukraine.
Russia is asking the West to ease sanctions on state agriculture lender Rosselkhozbank in order to facilitate Russian grain exports, four sources familiar with the recent Ukraine grain deal talks told Reuters.
[A 24 hour curfew was ordered in Kherson, then rescinded]
Must have been a quieter day yesterday, 'only' 600Ru soldiers dead and 21 APVs lost.