Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

[MagicFox]

Welcome all 🇺🇦

One of the most depressing trends is how the concept of free speech itself has become hijacked in the culture war to become regarded by many as a thing of the far right to allow abusive behaviour. So the left does not want to champion its pillars which underpin freedom.

When it's the Conservative party not the Liberal Democrats and Labour who frame themselves as progressive are they only ones talking about the importance of freedom of speech you have to ask some bloody difficult questions.

Especially when economics working against the population tend to destroy the ability of many to speech freely in practice and the Conservatives are actively working to remove rights at the same time, in the name of deregulation and market freedom.

Its like no one gets it. And even more concerning when the leader of the opposition is a human right lawyer who doesn't seem to understand the underpinning principles of Rights and democracy.

I don't know. I despair for this country.

RedToothBrush · Yesterday 20:10

^jsbear, I've just read this tweet, then you posted that

^Tim White AT TWMCLtd 6hrs ago
Recently the owner of the Wagner group, and increasingly influential Progozhin has been highly critical (and ordered his followers to be) of Aleksandr Lapin, who commanded #Russia's troops in #Donbas/#Kharkiv.^

Today he's been sacked.

Wagner is winning the war vs Russian MoD

Sacked? Then rumours found dead?

Weird as fuck.

I have just been catching up. I think I remember a few weeks back there was a report about a Muslim soldier running amok and shooting people at a recruiting station after some Muslim soldiers had said they didn’t want to fight Ukrainians, and Lapin said that ‘Allah was a coward’ if his people wouldn’t defend their motherland. I thought Lapin was shot then, so is news about a different Lapin?

Here is a Twitter account about that story of Lapin being shot by a few weeks ago.

mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1581721998824087552

That was Lapin junior. We are talking about Lapin senior. Dead Lapins dad. Though it now seems like both could now be the way of the Dodo.

Some background on Lapin and his methods:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586488705745047552.html

A detailed piece by Reuters on the documents left behind by Russian forces in Balakliia:

When Russian troops fled the Ukrainian town of Balakliia last month, they left behind thousands of documents that detail the inner workings of the Russian war machine.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-base/

Special Kherson Cat at bayraktor_1love
Russian sources published a video of trucks carrying a large number of square concrete bunkers that are believed to be heading towards the Kinburn Peninsula, Kherson/Nikolaev region

Right. Bit of an odd one, but ties in with other recent developments too to an extent and I think its worth commenting on and keeping an eye on going forward.

Ukraine will need to cross the Dnipro at some point if they manage to take northern half of Kherson region so its a natural thing to be considering this and Ukrainian capability across water. The raids on Sevastopol suggest they are better than a country without a navy might be expected to have.

We have been expecting a fortification of Southern Kherson region towards Crimea for a while. This report of portal pillboxes being moved shows this in progress and how it will be hard to establish a bridge head across from Kherson.

Check out the map below. You are looking at the bit where the arrow is pointing. It's interesting that Russia is seeing this area as a potential weak point. It shows that perhaps they are learning that Ukraine are looking for them.

Dave Talltree at unsc1325
Yes, in the west, it's coming down to Crimea; if the Ukr forces gained a beachhead on the Kinburn Peninsula, they could outflank Ru forces & reach for the E97 Motorway to Crimea.

These tweets have caught my eye because of whats being going on lately in Enerhodar not just Sevastopol.

This yesterday

Tim White AT TWMCltd
Earlier in the thread I mentioned the regular attacks on Nikopol in South Ukraine.

Here are a couple of photos of today's damage. One person was injured in the rocket attacks.

Russia is convinced Ukraine marines will cross the Dnipro to attack Enerhodar from this area.

The Russian have been reporting 'naval raids' to Enerhodar (where the nuclear plant is) for a while but they 'have repelled them'. Apparently this is now up to 5 or 6 times the Russians have suggested this.

Whether it is true or not remains to be seen BUT

Russia have a legitimate and growing fear of Ukrainian naval / marine capability.

Do i think Ukraine have been carrying out 'naval raids' which Russia has been repelling?

Not sure, but i do think it possible there has been some limited activity across the river either for smuggling or for special forces / partisan support in the Melitopol area.

We are focused on Kherson and Svatove as the places most likely to have developments at the moment, but as Sevastopol demonstrates Ukrainian ability to create a surprise even in the satellite age, and an attack around Melitopol is very much muted as being a Ukrainian aim.

RedToothBrush · Today 08:36
That was Lapin junior. We are talking about Lapin senior. Dead Lapins dad. Though it now seems like both could now be the way of the Dodo.

Thanks for the explaining that that was Lapin junior who was killed by a Muslim conscript in a shooting after Lapin junior insulted Allah.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · Today 09:17
Some background on Lapin and his methods:
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586488705745047552.html

Thise conditions must be utterly demoralising, Desdemona, especially with poor equipment and no food. The cold is evident from their breath showing up as mist and you can hear people coughing so it must be true that there are soldiers there who are unwell with respiratory illnesses.

It would be no wonder if Lapin senior has got killed too.

Day 248, October 29th. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast
Posted on 30 October 2022

🔥 Battlefield overview:
No major changes on the battlefield. Russia failed to create a good defensive frontline and, having lost the capability to advance, is starting a defensive operation of the illegally occupied territories at a disadvantage.

🔥Svatove-Kreminna
Russian sources complain about the Ukrainian army closing in on Svatove.

🔥Bahmut-Avdiivka
No major changes on the frontline. Russia keeps attacking Bahmut and Avdiivka.

🔥Vuhledar-Zaporizhzhja-Kherson
Russia is attempting to advance on Vuhledar using artillery and aviation, followed by infantry attempting to attack & advance. Due to the previous explosion and damage to Kerch Bridge, Russia has diminished transportation capacity and serious logistical problems. The remaining key railway and road passing north of Mariupol are already under Ukrainian fire control (e.g. HIMARS).
The Russian host in the Kherson region has an increased supply demand due to the transfer of additional mobilized troops. For now, the Russian troops in Kherson & Zaporizhzhja are critically dependent on this supply route. Ukraine taking control of this route would lead to the collapse of Russian logistics in the South.
Therefore, the Russian command is fearing the Ukrainian counterattack in Volnovaha direction and is trying to prevent Ukraine from cutting this supply route completely. This is a major & critical threat to the Russian war campaign, yet, the Kremlin couldn’t spare more than 10 BTG to try to solve this problem.

🔥The last Russian hope – US Republican party
Russia is buying time in hopes of somehow not losing this war completely if the Republican party takes over Congress after the Midterm elections & stops the military aid to Ukraine. Yet even the rise of the GOP to power won’t change the US public opinion & support for Ukraine. Moreover, the lend-lease is already in place and the US global strategy requires defeat & controlled dismantling of the Kremlin’s regime.

🔥The big picture
German President Steinmeier declared that Germany cannot keep relying on the US military capabilities and new security arrangements must be created in Europe. The EU is already participating in training and funding the Ukrainian army, which reflects a fundamental change in EU strategy. Other countries, such as India are also actively restructuring their security policy.
Even Gen. Hodges admitted that the US grossly overestimated Russian military capabilities and Russia is losing much faster than expected. Thus, the US is forced to review its long-term plan and global security strategy due to a speed-up of the Russian collapse. The new strategy will require an increase in its geopolitical activity worldwide (e.g. arrival of 101st US Army division to Romania) and an increase in weapons supply to Ukraine, ensuring a controlled dismantling of Putin’s regime. We may see big geopolitical processes starting in the US in Nov/Dec 2022.

🔥Sevastopol
Several Russian warships were hit, with Admiral Makarov damaged and another ship sunk in the port of Sevastopol (temporary occupied Ukranian Crimea). Fuel storage in Sevastopol Navy Base was also set on fire, reportedly by a drone attack. Russia was searching for a way to break the grain deal for a while now, as they still have problems exporting Russian fertiliser and breaking the grain deal would be another way to pressure Ukraine. Now, Russia is accusing Ukraine of hitting the Admiral Makarov warship that was just peacefully firing missiles to attack Ukrainian civilians (e.g. in Vinnytsia).

🔥Russia breaking the grain deal
Russia unilaterally exiting the grain deal may backfire, as the UN and Turkey, which were the two guarantors of the grain deal, may not take it lightly. The UN already stated that the grain blockade puts 100M people at risk of starvation. At the same time, President Erdogan will not appreciate Russia putting in doubt his authority & prestige by disrespecting the deal that he facilitated.

🔥Infighting & the military command crisis in Russia
The removal & condemnation of military commanders in Russia became public now. Kadyrov, Prigozhin & Surovikin are publicly attacking Putin’s favourite general, Lapin, and forcing Putin to remove Lapin from his post. Either the infighting is getting serious or, which is even worse, Putin has lost control over his henchmen.
The removal of experienced commanders like Lapin, leaves one question open: “Does Russia have any gifted commanders left to lead the Russian troops?”
While the Ukrainian army has many extremely successful and creative operations in this war that demonstrated the skill of Ukrainian military commanders, Russia seems to have a lack of capable commanders that could take Lapin’s place.

🔥Russian charade at the UN
Russian spokesperson Zakharova has accused the UK of explosions at the NordStream1 & NordStream2. The UK has already denied these ridiculous allegations. At the same time, the recent allegation of Liz Tuss’s mobile phone security breach may also be part of a Russian PsyOps, attempting to create a rift between UK and US. This shows the desperation and impotence of the Kremlin’s regime.
Just one day after Russia complained about “weaponised mosquitoes” at the UN, Russian representatives cry about “terrorist attacks” against Russian Federation in the Baltic and Black Seas.

Thank you for the roundup @DesdamonasHandkerchief

One note, there is at least one effective Ru Commander in Ukraine: Sergei Surovikin. Appalling brutal man, but cunning and effective.

~the reports of Lapin in the river were a joke, sadly~

ISW Key Takeaways

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted an attack against a Grigorovich-class frigate of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) near Sevastopol with unmanned surface vehicles on October 29.

The Kremlin reportedly relieved the commander of the Central Military District (CMD), Colonel General Alexander Lapin, of his position as the commander of the “central” group of forces in Ukraine.

Russia is likely expediting efforts to forcibly depopulate areas of Kherson Oblast along the Dnipro River and repopulate them with Russian soldiers, some of them out of uniform in violation of the law of armed conflict.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely responding to pressure levied by milbloggers regarding its treatment of Russian prisoners of war (POWs) and the conduct of prisoner exchanges.

Ukrainian forces consolidated gains and continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian intelligence indicated that the highest quality Russian troops are still responsible for the defense of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces continued to establish defensive positions on the western bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces likely slowed the pace of offensive operations in the Bakhmut area due to a Ukrainian strike.

Russian sources claimed that Russian troops launched an offensive in the Vuhledar area.

Russian troops likely made marginal gains around Donetsk City.

The Kremlin reportedly instructed Russian judges to not grant prisoners parole but instead to direct them toward recruitment in unspecified private military companies (PMCs).

The Kremlin is likely conducting an information operation to reduce tensions between Christians and Muslims in Russia to cater to religious minority groups within the Russian armed forces.

+++

⚡️New York Times: Ukraine achieves artillery superiority on southern font line thanks to Western weapons
"Ukrainian soldiers are taking out armored vehicles worth millions of dollars with cheap homemade drones, as well as with more advanced drones and other weapons provided by the United States and allies," the New York Times reports.

⚡️General Staff: Russian forces remove prisoners from Kherson city colony.

Russia says it’s ready for negotiations with the West (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/russia-says-its-ready-for-negotiations-with-the-west)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Oct. 30 that Russia is ready for negotiations if the West “fully takes into account the interests” of Russia, as well as “offers some serious approaches that will contribute to defusing tensions."
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov also said on Oct. 30 that Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden could “discuss Russia's security guarantees,” but such talks would require the U.S. willingness to return to "the state of December-January.” [ahahahahaha. Oh aye? And their negotiations could be trusted because - ?]

⚡️Governor: Russian troops blow up bridge over Krasna River in Luhansk Oblast.
According to Haidai, the Russian forces are “afraid” that Ukrainian forces “are very close,” as Ukraine's counteroffensive in the largely occupied Luhansk Oblast continues to progress.

Bloomberg: Russia may be using components from imported home appliances for military purposes. (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/bloomberg-eu-worries-russia-may-be-using-components-from-imported-home-appliances-for-military-purposes)
Unnamed European officials "familiar with the figures," told Bloomberg that they worry “at least some of the goods and their components may be finding their way into (Russian) military use, and are closely tracking the rise in exports to countries on Russia’s periphery.”

⚡️La Republica: Italy sends over 20 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine.

⚡️Infrastructure Minister: Grain export impossible as Russia reimposes blockade.

Illia Ponomarenko, outstanding Ukr journalist, interviews Ryan Evans, CEO of War on the Rocks ()

..... Look at the personnel losses ..... this is jawdropping. Plus a lot of equipment loss - no less than 52 APVs and another plane. No claims of sunken boats though.

This is just insane.

❗️Now occupants mine the territory twice as densely as in Kyiv region - Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrskyi

📰"Ukraine now has an advantage both in range and in precision missiles and artillery shells, a class of weapons largely lacking in Russia's arsenal," The New York Times writes (www.nytimes.com/2022/10/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-artillery.html) about Ukraine's advantage over Russia on the southern front

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦In Ukraine, 248 children have been reported missing since the beginning of the Russian invasion. Another 9,441 children were deported to Russia by the occupiers.

‼️Kremlin considered strike on Germany before invasion of Ukraine - Spiegel
Three sites were discussed: Berlin, the US air base in Ramstein and the Buchel air base, where the US army stores nuclear weapons.
The radio message of the Russian Navy, which discussed such plans, was intercepted by Western intelligence services at the end of 2021 during Russian exercises in the Baltic Sea, the publication claims.

‼️Mayor: In occupied Mariupol district of Donetsk region Russians want to mobilize up to 10 thousand people for war against Ukraine.

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/28/russia-fsb-moldova-manipulation/

Russia is working hard to get more Orbans into power.

@notimagain

Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
·
30m
The Ukrainian Air Force has chosen a group of pilots that can move to the US & start training on U.S. planes (F-16 & F-15).

The pilots are “young, promising, proficient in English & with combat experience”

The draft budget approved by the US Congress has $100 mln for training.

Kremlin considered strike on Germany before invasion of Ukraine - Spiegel
Three sites were discussed: Berlin, the US air base in Ramstein and the Buchel air base, where the US army stores nuclear weapons.
The radio message of the Russian Navy, which discussed such plans, was intercepted by Western intelligence services at the end of 2021 during Russian exercises in the Baltic Sea, the publication claims.

You'd need the full details to see if this was ever actually perceived as a threat (I can't get the link to work).

FWIW if you're running such an exercise then scenarios would get discussed, there would be associated signals traffic...

The danger is in the opposition not understanding the context of intercepted messages promptly or fully - that's what lead to the Able Archer 83 fright.

"‼️Kremlin considered strike on Germany before invasion of Ukraine - Spiegel
Three sites were discussed: Berlin, the US air base in Ramstein and the Buchel air base, where the US army stores nuclear weapons.
The radio message of the Russian Navy, which discussed such plans, was intercepted by Western intelligence services at the end of 2021 during Russian exercises in the Baltic Sea, the publication claims."

Wtf?!

Sorry just noticed @notimagain's reply but still...would like to know if this was a viable threat

It seems insanely stupid so yes, I don't really believe it was a serious option for one second

this is the link, in German tho www.spiegel.de/thema/spiegelplus/

www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russian-nuclear-threats-aimed-at-germany-says-official/2721339

Also this

I suspect there's a fair bit of click-bait alarmism going on sometimes. The Kyiv Independent is an excellent journalistic paper but they don't get everything always right, hard as they try.

Slowly but surely advancing through the agricultural areas of right bank Kherson Oblast is one thing. Then there is the question of how to deal with Kherson city, whoever happens to be in it. Ukrainian forces have not taken anything like that in the recent advances. It may well crumble. It might be cut off and be left to surrender.

Around the before or after taking Kherson city point there's a question of where next? The river / lake is such an obstacle, with any crossings easy to interdict with Russian and Iranian weapons. At this point switching to move south on a Zaporizhzhya to Melitopol axis looks promising.

From what I hear (and from what is probably on twitter and the like) it sounds like it's largely new, inexperienced soldiers that are ill equipped and the lucky ones have been moved into empty apartments. I'm not sure there will be a fight, I'm not sure there is even a trap because the Russian army seems so chaotic and more bothered about emptying the city as opposed to laying traps. Possibly wishful thinking on my part that the Ukraine forces could walk in and they will roll over?

Fell off the thread a bit, as life got in the way. Busy times...

Very interesting thread from Phillips O'Brien about what's happening behind the front lines

twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1586715610838601728?t=FkVc5uWATgSa1VdkLMshHA&s=19

Kremlin considered strike on Germany before invasion of Ukraine - Spiegel
Three sites were discussed: Berlin, the US air base in Ramstein and the Buchel air base, where the US army stores nuclear weapons. The radio message of the Russian Navy, which discussed such plans, was intercepted by Western intelligence services at the end of 2021 during Russian exercises in the Baltic Sea, the publication claims.

Maybe hearing this might galvanise the EU/Germany to support Ukraine a bit more?

Maybe hearing this might galvanise the EU/Germany to support Ukraine a bit more?

Wow, there's a comment straight off the pages of the Daily Mail.

Humanitarian aid for Ukraine:
EU/Germany - €2.35 billion
UK - €0.3 billion

Financial aid for Ukraine:
EU/Germany - €13.47 billion
UK - €2.54 billion

Military aid for Ukraine:
EU/Germay - €3.7 billion
UK - €3.74 billion

May the UK need to support Ukraine more before pointing their fingers at others.

www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

In fairness, that's the -whole- of the EU v Britain?

(although sadly generally it's Britain v the EU generally :( )

But from that site, also in terms of GPD the UK has given more than anyone except the Eastern European countries and Norway. In terms of billions of aid the UK has given more than anyone including Germany and France.

of course, it's quite possible the UK has given a pile of military secrets to Russia. Good job, Truss.

EU/Germany is a little bit bigger than UK. 448 million in the EU as against 65 million in the UK.

It is remarkable that the UK has given more military aid to Ukraine than the EU has, I feel.