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Ukraine Invasion: Part 34

988 replies

MagicFox · 23/10/2022 21:29

Welcome all πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

OP posts:
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BringBackCoffeeCreams · 30/10/2022 20:01

That wasn't all EU countries, just the EU itself and Germany as that's who apparently need to do better. The figure is substantially higher if you add in aid given by other EU countries. In fact the link shows that some EU states are giving at a much higher percentage of their income than the UK, most notably the Baltic states

And then there's the refugees. Germany is taking care of over a million, how does that compare to the UK?

That's why it a Daily Mail comment. It's shitty and divisive and not representative of reality. It takes a grain of information and twists it into hatred and resentment.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 30/10/2022 20:05

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/10/2022 19:51

EU/Germany is a little bit bigger than UK. 448 million in the EU as against 65 million in the UK.

It is remarkable that the UK has given more military aid to Ukraine than the EU has, I feel.

You find it remarkable that the UK has given more military aid than an organisation that doesn't have a military?

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 30/10/2022 20:08

Looks like it's jingoism night here tonight.

Ijsbear · 30/10/2022 21:10

I was looking at the side that @Fladdermus linked. I'm not interested in jingoism because I think the UK has a lot of problems and the increase in the rich-poor divide, plus the extreme poverty some/many people live in, is a disgrace that is unconscionable in one of the world's richest economies. I also think that the sad, strong tail end of Empire attitude that ~still~ exists is pathetic.

I think the destruction of the manufacturing sector was a sin that has and will affect the UK for generations and it was a terrible act.

But give me the (accurate) information and I'll look at it as as far as I am able to read it, revise my standpoint. @Fladdermus ' site -gave- the information that I relayed.

I did not see the stats on refugees, and I can well believe Germany is far more impressive. Poland and the E European countries far head that table though. The stats on giving - it's clear that Norway is giving more but many many countries give less.

If we are talking about the EU/Germany as the EU/Germany entity, then I'm concerned that the EU and Germany are considered one entity. They shouldn't be. If we are talking about the EU, and then Germany, we need to make it clear they are separate.

Ijsbear · 30/10/2022 21:11

I don't like it that you said it's jingoism night and I don't think it's fair.

ScrollingLeaves · 30/10/2022 21:31

Ijsbear Β· Today 21:11
I don't like it that you said it's jingoism night and I don't think it's fair
No, I agree that isn’t fair.

Also, it would be better to provide arguments as to why a statement isn’t true than to be personally disparaging in the way β€˜Jingoism night’ as a response seems to come across as being.

A reason this thread has been so strong is that people have generally tried hard to keep a tone of mutual respect even when there is disagreement, and tried hard too to veer away from being over reactive to each other.

There has been so much information and thoughtful comment shared here.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 30/10/2022 21:38

It's not mutually respectful to use this thread to have a snarky dig at Germany and the EU when we're doing the best we can, just like the UK

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/10/2022 21:48

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 30/10/2022 21:38

It's not mutually respectful to use this thread to have a snarky dig at Germany and the EU when we're doing the best we can, just like the UK

I wasn't having a snarky dig, or at least that certainly wasn't my intention, I was just being mightily surprised that the UK (with so much smaller population) had apparently had so much spare weaponry around to donate! More than the rest of the EU put together? Given all the defence cuts that have been going on, it didn't make sense.

ScrollingLeaves · 30/10/2022 21:50

Mutually as in one individual person to another.

A country can take a snarky remark better than a person.

Just send facts against the dig.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 30/10/2022 22:10

It's not good when countries or people get compared to one another especially when the context is emotionally charged and there's been too many league tables in the news/SM. I'd say we are all finding this war very hard to witness and it can feel personal when our country's efforts are scrutinised. It was bloody hairy relying on Boris to do what we hoped he would!

Ijsbear · 30/10/2022 22:17

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 30/10/2022 21:38

It's not mutually respectful to use this thread to have a snarky dig at Germany and the EU when we're doing the best we can, just like the UK

We aren't.

Right now, bluntly, you're responding from emotion and not thought, because responses were based on the information given. And people have said that they respect that Germany has taken in far more refugees (and far more easily) than the UK.

Germany has a PR problem, and Scholz has all the charisma of a stone. He has (according to my E German partner) the ability to see all the factors but cannot choose until he is pushed by others. Germany has given more than people realise.

But it has not been a leader, it has not stepped up, and it has lost respect on the Western stage. It could have done more and it could have done it with far more leadership.

The Eastern European countries who lived under USSR rule have done far more proportionally than the UK, Germany, Spain, France or anyone else except apparently Norway (blink). But of the slightly-more-western countries in Europe, the UK has done a very great deal under Ben Wallace.

The UK has gigantic fairness problems and RTB has outlined the gigantic truth problems as well. The present and the future of the UK is in a very poor state. No dignity (dear god no), no integrity in its leadership, no equality of income or opportunity. But in this one area, this particular country has done WELL.

L1ttledrummergirl · 30/10/2022 23:30

I can't really comment on the link as its late and I haven't yet read it, but I would say that for all the many, many, and even more many faults the UK government has had over the last 2 years and more, helping Ukraine has to be one of the better things they've managed to do.

If it seems to you as though they aren't doing enough in this one issue that is currently the only thing they are managing with any degree of competency, imagine what they've done with the rest of the country.

We laugh at Putin thinking he had an army while the oligarchs had creamed the money off, but our government and their mates have been doing the same in the UK without scrutiny (or so it appears to me). Britain is currently up the creek with only one paddle within reach and that's drifting further away. I hope we can get it together before the whole bloody boat sinks and we can't do anything for anyone.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 31/10/2022 00:18

Ukraine, Turkey & the UN have notified Russia that they have decided on organizing a convoy of 14 cargo ships with grain to set sails from Ukraine tomorrow despite Russia’s renewed naval blockade in the Black Sea.
Will Russia attack the ships carrying Ukrainian grain?

twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1586840910054277120?s=61&t=Iz5Ji8jgAvnWQzYTu8BeDQ

blueshoes · 31/10/2022 00:29

How does a naval blockage work? The sea is not like a road where you can put barriers. Presumably Russia is not in control of the port (Odesa?). Would Russia enforce the blockage at sea by threatening to attack if a cargo vessel proceeds beyond a certain point?

Not sure how things work at sea.

MissConductUS · 31/10/2022 00:48

I just wanted to say that I am quite proud of how the U.S. has stepped up and supported Ukraine militarily and financially. It's also had the benefit of giving most politicians here something they can agree on for a change. I don't think the Russians understood how much ill will they've built up over the years with the cyber attacks, election interference, etc. They used a chemical weapon on UK soil. No one was confused about who the bully was.

How does a naval blockage work? The sea is not like a road where you can put barriers. Presumably Russia is not in control of the port (Odesa?). Would Russia enforce the blockage at sea by threatening to attack if a cargo vessel proceeds beyond a certain point?

A textbook naval blockage works as you describe. Naval ships monitor and intercept other vessels and order them to depart under threat of attack. I don't think Ru would actually do this because their Black Sea fleet has pulled back and can't get close to Ukraine because of the anti-ship missile threat. If they did, the obvious response would be for NATO navies to escort the cargo ships. The agreement was due to expire in a few weeks anyway, presumably because the grain harvest is over.

blueshoes · 31/10/2022 02:56

MissConductUS · 31/10/2022 00:48

I just wanted to say that I am quite proud of how the U.S. has stepped up and supported Ukraine militarily and financially. It's also had the benefit of giving most politicians here something they can agree on for a change. I don't think the Russians understood how much ill will they've built up over the years with the cyber attacks, election interference, etc. They used a chemical weapon on UK soil. No one was confused about who the bully was.

How does a naval blockage work? The sea is not like a road where you can put barriers. Presumably Russia is not in control of the port (Odesa?). Would Russia enforce the blockage at sea by threatening to attack if a cargo vessel proceeds beyond a certain point?

A textbook naval blockage works as you describe. Naval ships monitor and intercept other vessels and order them to depart under threat of attack. I don't think Ru would actually do this because their Black Sea fleet has pulled back and can't get close to Ukraine because of the anti-ship missile threat. If they did, the obvious response would be for NATO navies to escort the cargo ships. The agreement was due to expire in a few weeks anyway, presumably because the grain harvest is over.

@MissConductUS thanks for explaining how a naval blockage works. If the grain harvest season is soon over, Russian withdrawing from the grain agreement now would be equivalent to closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Let's hope so and the majority of the grain has already got out.

The US has provided so much swift support to Ukraine which is pivotal to their success on the battlefield. I am sure they are forever grateful (I am). I am kinda proud of UK too in the military support, going back to 2015 in Operation Orbital to train the UAF. I appreciate many other countries also participated and contributed. I am relieved and heartened that the new UK PM Rishi Sunak kept Ben Wallace as Defence Secretary despite their differences. It is a rare example of a UK PM in recent times doing the right thing, as opposed to the political thing.

blueshoes · 31/10/2022 02:58

Ijsbear · 30/10/2022 13:46

@notimagain

VisegrΓ‘d 24
@visegrad24
Β·
30m
The Ukrainian Air Force has chosen a group of pilots that can move to the US & start training on U.S. planes (F-16 & F-15).

The pilots are β€œyoung, promising, proficient in English & with combat experience”

The draft budget approved by the US Congress has $100 mln for training.

This makes me happy. Is the US going to provide F-16 and F-15 planes to Ukraine? I was not aware of it.

ScrollingLeaves · 31/10/2022 05:03

MissConductUSΒ· Today 00:48
I just wanted to say that I am quite proud of how the U.S. has stepped up and supported Ukraine militarily and financially. It's also had the benefit of giving most politicians here something they can agree on for a change.

The U.S. support for Ukraine has been crucial in drawing together a unified opposition to the Russian invasion, and on an individual basis their help must have essential.

notimagain · 31/10/2022 06:33

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/10/2022 21:48

I wasn't having a snarky dig, or at least that certainly wasn't my intention, I was just being mightily surprised that the UK (with so much smaller population) had apparently had so much spare weaponry around to donate! More than the rest of the EU put together? Given all the defence cuts that have been going on, it didn't make sense.

One problem with trying to do comparisons on this topic is that for whatever reason some countries are not commenting on what they are providing....

It's been apparent from some images that have done the rounds that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have received at least some kit (e.g. some vehicles, some ordnance) from suppliers who have not made their donations public.

As for the UK, fantastic support but I'm not sure it does have that much spare weaponry.

It's also worth bearing in mind some of the weaponry that has been donated (from UK and elsewhere) may be close to being life expired/obsolete and would be headed for disposal if not donated, so it's not always brand new kit that's being shipped.

Igotjelly · 31/10/2022 06:37

Air raids across the country this morning with several big explosions in Kyiv.

notimagain · 31/10/2022 07:13

blueshoes · 31/10/2022 02:58

This makes me happy. Is the US going to provide F-16 and F-15 planes to Ukraine? I was not aware of it.

It's the continuation story about provision of training only, with a view to the Ukraine Air Force transitioning to Western aircraft post conflict.

www.defensenews.com/congress/2022/07/15/house-authorizes-training-for-ukrainian-pilots-to-use-us-aircraft/

AFAIK there is still no approval for F-15 or F-16 export during the conflict itself.

The good news is given the authorisation of funds is on public record I think this story about training might at last be one that "stands up" to further examination...

It's certainly got more credibility than some of those tales earlier of Ukrainian pilots who were blogging about being trained on the F-16 at US bases back in the Spring/early Summer...

Ijsbear · 31/10/2022 07:35

One problem with trying to do comparisons on this topic is that for whatever reason some countries are not commenting on what they are providing....

Yeah.

ISW

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Unconfirmed Russian reports claimed that Russian Lieutenant General Andrey Mordvichev (Commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District) replaced Colonel General Alexander Lapin as Central Military District (CMD) commander as of October 30.[13] Russian sources continue to make contradictory reports about whether Lapin was fully relieved of command of the CMD or just relieved of command of the Russian operational β€œCentral Group of Forces” operating in Ukraine.[14]

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults on Pershotravneve, Tabaivka, and Berestove in Kharkiv Oblast.[15]

Ukrainian sources and geolocated reports indicate that Russian forces destroyed a bridge over the Krasna River in Krasnorichenske, Luhansk Oblast.[16] Russian milbloggers accused Ukrainian forces of destroying the bridge.[17]

A Russian occupation official stated that Russian force are preparing to defend Kherson City by engineering defenses in Bilozerka and Chornobaivka.[18] Ukrainian military official also noted that Russian officials continued to prepare defenses around Kherson City.[19]

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are preparing to withdraw artillery units from unspecified areas on the western bank of the Dnipro River to possibly reinforce other directions.[20] Ukrainian military officials also reported that several hundred Rosgvardia servicemen deployed from the Republic of Chechnya to Kalanchak in southwestern Kherson Oblast.[21]

Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions in Beryslav Raion, Kherson Oblast, and both Ukrainian and Russian sources provided limited information regarding the situation on the Kherson Oblast frontline.[22]

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Vodyane, Donetsk Oblast, (4km northwest of Donetsk International Airport) on October 30.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff’s evening report did not report repelling Russian attacks in this area as it usually does, potentially indicating that the Russian claims are accurate.

Russian sources reported that Russian forces captured Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast, (2km southwest of Vuhledar) on October 30.[24] Some Russian sources claim that Russian forces control only half of Pavlivka as of October 30.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff’s evening report did not report repelling Russian attacks in this area as it usually does, potentially indicating that the Russian claims are accurate.

Russian forces launched Kh-59 cruise missiles at Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast.[26] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces targeted and destroyed military infrastructure in Ochakiv.[27]

Mobilized men from Republic of Komi appealed to Russian authorities with complaints of insufficient military equipment and body armor.[28]

Russia announced its intention to supply 500,000 tons of grain to the β€œpoorest countries” following its withdrawal from the deal that allowed Ukraine to export its grain.[29] Ukraine announced that it intends to export agricultural products to maintain global food security.[30]

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces continued to create conditions in Nova Kakhovka to drive local inhabitants to evacuate.[31]

Occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast announced a dual currency system that allows the use of both rubles and hryvnya, unwinding a months-long effort to enforce rubleization in the oblast.[32]

Also: The combination of the just-completed partial reserve mobilization and the annual conscription cycle thus creates two likely waves of Russian troops flowing into Ukraineβ€”one moving in over the next few weeks, and the other starting to flow in spring 2023.

Also: Putin is thus setting conditions to continue waging conventional war for the foreseeable future rather than preparing to try to end the war by escalation or by making for some β€œoff-ramp.”

The point was made that winter allows for the crossing of the many rivers and lakes in Ukraine, allowing more mobility than in the other three seasons.

Ijsbear · 31/10/2022 07:48

Turkey, Russia in talks over possible resumption of Ukrainian grain exports as 218 ships stuck (UPDATED) (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/lithuanian-foreign-minister-urges-military-escort-for-ukrainian-grain-as-russia-cancels-deal)
Turkey has begun negotiating with Moscow concerning resuming grain shipments from Ukrainian ports, according to the country's defense ministry.

⚑️ General Staff: Russia to withdraw heavy artillery from Kherson.
Russian forces plan to remove its artillery from the Dnipro River's right bank in Kherson Oblast (kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-russia-to-withdraw-heavy-artillery-from-kherson), which includes the city of Kherson, the General Staff reported on Oct. 30.

⚑️UN, Turkey, Ukraine reach deal to move 16 ships.

⚑️Blinken discusses Russia's war with Chinese Foreign Minister.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during which Blinken raised Russia's war against Ukraine and the threats it poses to global security and economic stability, according to a statement by the U.S. Department of State [no info yet on what came out of it]

⚑️Explosions reported in Kharkiv, air raid sirens are on across all regions.
Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported that Russia "hit a critical infrastructure facility in the city." He didn't provide details.

⚑️ Mayor: Russia hits energy infrastructure sites in Kyiv, power out in several neighborhoods.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said Russian forces hit energy infrastructure sites in the morning on Oct. 31, which caused power and water supply outages in several districts. Klitschko didn't provide details.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 34
Ijsbear · 31/10/2022 07:50

Tim White
@TWMCLtd
Β·
2h
#Russia media reporting this morning that #Huawei has completely stopped smartphone deliveries to Russia.

The Chinese company may now completely leave the country.

RedToothBrush · 31/10/2022 08:00

Early returns in the US mid terms are looking better for the republicans than for the presidential election in a number of states from what I'm reading.

Its really worrying on a number of levels