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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

OP posts:
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52
Hancox432 · 13/10/2022 08:29

Ijsbear · 13/10/2022 08:20

I thnk @Natsku has it.

It is indeed noticeable that whenever one of Putin's Red Lines has been crossed that he doesn't escalate the rhetoric. It happens when things are less at crisis point. Which makes me think that, given the US has told him very clearly that there will be an extremely strong response to the use of nukes, he's actually being careful not to go there.

He goes on and on about it in order to scare the democracies of the West, so that there will be less support for Ukraine and less support for political parties that want to keep supporting Ukraine, and less support for democracy full stop.

You do see it work to an extent as well. As soon as nuclear is mentioned. Twitter is amass with people telling Zelenskey to capitulate to stop a nuclear war etc.

The thing is once you have used nuclear weapons you don't have the threat of using them anymore. It's the threat that potentially makes people change their thinking.

Natsku · 13/10/2022 08:29

Precisely. He wants to undermine the West's support of the Ukraine and Western unity in general (e.g. Brexit etc.) and democracy (interfering with elections). Best defence is to ignore those mentions, they are meaningless, and assure people who are scared by them that they're just empty words (and explain why we know that)

DuncinToffee · 13/10/2022 08:56

🌻

miceonabranch · 13/10/2022 09:06

Very good interview here with Professor Nina Krushcheva

ScrollingLeaves · 13/10/2022 09:17

Natsku · Today 07:19

ScrollingLeaves · Yesterday 21:55

“MissConductUS
So long, very technical story short, it's extremely unlikely that a warhead would detonate before reaching the target location, even if the missile carrying it was shot down.”

So would the shot down warhead part remain intact and never explode no matter the impact of what hit it, or the impact of it hitting the ground?

(Sorry if this is a stupid question)

My understanding is that they are designed to survive impact, so its not the impact that sets them off, they go off when they are supposed to according to how they're programmed, whether that's in the air or on the ground or under the ground

Thank you for answering, Natsku.
For me it is somehow difficult to imagine such ultimate control being possible. But that’s a feeling based on principle, not scientific knowledge.

Natsku · 13/10/2022 09:49

twitter.com/markus_tm/status/1580182985680486403
"Breaking: There has been a referendum in Turku, Finland. The car park of the russian consul to Finland has been annexed to Ukraine 🇺🇦!"

Grin
TargusEasting2 · 13/10/2022 10:34

ScrollingLeaves · 13/10/2022 09:17

Natsku · Today 07:19

ScrollingLeaves · Yesterday 21:55

“MissConductUS
So long, very technical story short, it's extremely unlikely that a warhead would detonate before reaching the target location, even if the missile carrying it was shot down.”

So would the shot down warhead part remain intact and never explode no matter the impact of what hit it, or the impact of it hitting the ground?

(Sorry if this is a stupid question)

My understanding is that they are designed to survive impact, so its not the impact that sets them off, they go off when they are supposed to according to how they're programmed, whether that's in the air or on the ground or under the ground

Thank you for answering, Natsku.
For me it is somehow difficult to imagine such ultimate control being possible. But that’s a feeling based on principle, not scientific knowledge.

In a rush and already late this morning.

Munitions will either explode on impact/proximity or timed on a fuse. It is all quite scientific. Sometimes that fuse may be delayed a second or two, for example if you want it to penetrate and settle underground so that its shock waves on detonation bury troops in trenches. Or the round can go off two seconds after leaving the barrel if you are about to be overrun by advancing infantry. Self-propelled artillery is capable of launching nuclear shells which are timed fuses. I believe they have been delivered that way by the US in testing - I recall the videos from the Nevada desert a long time ago. But I am pretty sure anything Russia may deliver will be timed. The effect of contact on an incoming missile may disturb its ability to operate though. Nuclear weapons is not my area - 99% of training was always chemical and biological.

minsmum · 13/10/2022 11:01

mobile.twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1580444913518665730 Russian tank drives straight over clearly visible mines, further down in the comments someone said the Russians laid the mines

miceonabranch · 13/10/2022 11:15

Natsku · 13/10/2022 09:49

twitter.com/markus_tm/status/1580182985680486403
"Breaking: There has been a referendum in Turku, Finland. The car park of the russian consul to Finland has been annexed to Ukraine 🇺🇦!"

Grin

😄😄😄

Love it!

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 13/10/2022 11:20

Russia have summoned Swedish, Danish and German diplomats over the nordstream leaks They're pissed that Sweden won't allow them to be involved in the investigation and are already dismissing the results as nonsense, despite there being no results yet.

notimagain · 13/10/2022 11:22

@Ijsbear

Thanks for the update..For info/explanation on a couple of points..

France to provide air defense systems to Ukraine

Supposedly Crotale NG, Surface to Air system, not the newest bit of equipment on the block but probably capable enough given what the Russians are using

⚡️* UK to supply air defence missiles to Ukraine

U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said the U.K. will deliver AMRAAM missiles to Ukraine.*

AMRAAM - Advanced Medium Range Air to Air Missile ... so for carriage/fired from fighter aircraft.

Ijsbear · 13/10/2022 13:13

Thanks for the expansion Notimagain

It occurs to me that there could be a new phrase coined: as honest as the Russian Government. Meaning Trumpian levels of dishonesty combined with unparalleled contempt for everyone else.

minsmum · 13/10/2022 13:36

mobile.twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1580496077005852673 this video shows Russian tank an soldiers on a parade ground. As the tanks are driven around the soldiers, who are standing in road at attention. They drive straight into one of them

miceonabranch · 13/10/2022 13:43

minsmum · 13/10/2022 13:36

mobile.twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1580496077005852673 this video shows Russian tank an soldiers on a parade ground. As the tanks are driven around the soldiers, who are standing in road at attention. They drive straight into one of them

😄😄😄

They need a woman to drive it as we're more careful.

I'm in my 50s, I grew up believing the Russians were a great military power who were probably unbeatable. Now, I find out they're a third rate barely developed country with a mickey mouse military. Gotta love corruption eh?

minsmum · 13/10/2022 15:15

mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaYastrub/status/1580165785938407424 in Kyviv Russians mined a beehive when the owners opened it nothing happened because the bees had dripped honey

Fladdermus · 13/10/2022 16:40

I thought the Ukrainian Librarians Association had taken the No Fucks Given Award quite early on in the war. But then they were challenged by the Ukrainian curlers. And now we have a last minute entry from the Ukrainian bees.

countrygirl99 · 13/10/2022 16:48

minsmum · 13/10/2022 15:15

mobile.twitter.com/VictoriaYastrub/status/1580165785938407424 in Kyviv Russians mined a beehive when the owners opened it nothing happened because the bees had dripped honey

🤣🤣🤣

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 13/10/2022 17:29

Talking of corruption in the Russian army...

I was listening to the BBC World Service this afternoon. Apparently mid level Russian officers will keep significant numbers of dead soldiers on their payroll so that the families continue to receive the salary and in return receive a percentage. It is thought that many battalions are much smaller than officially thought. I honestly think Putin et al have no idea what a shit show the Russian army is.

notimagain · 13/10/2022 17:50

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 13/10/2022 17:29

Talking of corruption in the Russian army...

I was listening to the BBC World Service this afternoon. Apparently mid level Russian officers will keep significant numbers of dead soldiers on their payroll so that the families continue to receive the salary and in return receive a percentage. It is thought that many battalions are much smaller than officially thought. I honestly think Putin et al have no idea what a shit show the Russian army is.

Wonder where they got the idea...

www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/17/afghanistan-ghost-soldiers-taliban-babaji

Ijsbear · 13/10/2022 18:25

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 13/10/2022 17:29

Talking of corruption in the Russian army...

I was listening to the BBC World Service this afternoon. Apparently mid level Russian officers will keep significant numbers of dead soldiers on their payroll so that the families continue to receive the salary and in return receive a percentage. It is thought that many battalions are much smaller than officially thought. I honestly think Putin et al have no idea what a shit show the Russian army is.

Dryly amusing how corrupt politicians who corrupt everything they touch, and all the institutions, suddenly get surprised when, ahem, the institutions don't run very well ...

Wannago · 13/10/2022 19:14

Igotjelly · 13/10/2022 08:07

GrinGrinGrin Spotted at a protest in Prague, thought you might enjoy it.

That is a tasteful shot! - the version I saw (don't know where now), was face on and showed his extremely small you-know-what. But maybe that was too pornographic for Mumsnet!

ScrollingLeaves · 13/10/2022 19:17

By coincidence, today I was listening to a radio programme about funerals and heard something I’d never known before about how important it was to let the family’s bees know about the death. They were considered to be at the heart of the family.

These Ukrainian bees evidently were!🐝🐝🐝🐝🌻🌻🌻🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

folklorethursday.com/folklife/telling-the-bees-the-folklore-of-bees-and-beekeeping/

MissConductUS · 13/10/2022 19:30

minsmum · 13/10/2022 13:36

mobile.twitter.com/IlvesToomas/status/1580496077005852673 this video shows Russian tank an soldiers on a parade ground. As the tanks are driven around the soldiers, who are standing in road at attention. They drive straight into one of them

Here's one where a Russian drives an armored personnel carrier over a line of clearly visible landmines.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-soldier-drives-armoured-vehicle-28227508

I suspect many Russian soldiers never learned to drive a car as civilians, but that wouldn't explain driving over mines you can see.

Igotjelly · 13/10/2022 19:41

Kremlin have announced they’re going to help evacuate civilians from Kherson. Assume for some this might mean deport them?

edition.cnn.com/2022/10/13/europe/kherson-russia-ukraine-evacuation-call-intl/index.html

miceonabranch · 13/10/2022 20:18

Could they be facilitating Russian civilians to move to Russia because they know they can't hold these areas? If some of the civilians want to be under Russian rule then let them go to that country instead of living in an area which is destined to be fully Ukranian in a few weeks/months.

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