ISW Key Takeaways www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19
Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and the loss of significant territory in Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces are setting information conditions to conduct a false-flag attack on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP); the Russian military may believe that breaching the dam could cover their retreat from the right bank of the Dnipro River and prevent or delay Ukrainian advances across the river.
Russia continues to use the guise of civilian “evacuations” as a cover for the mass forced removal of civilians from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s October 19 declaration of martial law readiness is largely legal theater meant to legitimize activities the Russian military needs to undertake or is already undertaking while creating a framework for future mobilization and domestic restrictions.
Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing efforts to set himself and Wagner Group forces apart from conventional Russian military elements.
Russian forces continued to conduct limited assaults to recapture lost territory in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to conduct assaults in the Kreminna-Svatove area.
Russian sources widely claimed that Ukrainian troops conducted another offensive push in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin passed a decree on October 19 seeking to address Russian military personnels’ ongoing concerns about timely payments and setting the blame on Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov for future payment issues.
The Russian parliament proposed legal measures that would allow Russian authorities to minimize the domestic impacts of partial mobilization in potential future mobilization waves.
Russian military officials continued to forcibly mobilize Ukrainian residents of Russian-occupied territories to labor or fight on behalf of the Russian military.
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⚡️Politico: White House taking measures to avoid Biden-Putin encounter at G-20 summit in Indonesia.
As Ukraine sets its sights on liberating Kherson, Russian proxies try to push people out
(kyivindependent.com/national/as-ukraine-sets-its-sights-on-liberating-kherson-russian-proxies-try-to-push-people-out)
As Ukrainians push toward occupied Kherson, the Russian occupiers on Oct. 18 said they would move up to 60,000 Ukrainian civilians to occupied parts of Ukraine or Russia.
The occupation authorities called it an “evacuation,” saying that Ukrainian forces are likely to attack the city.
⚡️Foreign Ministry: Martial law in occupied territories 'imposed' to suppress local resistance.
⚡️US State Department: Martial law decree in occupied territories 'desperate' move to tighten control.
⚡️Ukraine closes road transit to occupied territories through Zaporizhzhia.
Traffic in both directions of the highway between Zaporizhzhia and the occupied territories of Ukraine has ceased, Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Volodymyr Marchuk told Ukrinform.
Tension at the checkpoint rose significantly after Sept. 30, when 31 people were killed (kyivindependent.com/national/zaporizhzhia-engulfed-by-terror-as-recent-russian-strike-takes-31-lives) by Russian missiles as they waited to cross into occupied territory.
⚡️Electricity supply to be limited across Ukraine from Oct. 20.
Ukrainians across the country have been called upon to significantly reduce their consumption of electricity, as more and more energy facilities are deliberately targeted by Russian missile and drone strikes.
⚡️Wagner Group founder claims that Russia creates defensive lines, 'people's militia' in Belgorod Oblast.
Wagner Group, the state-backed private military company that has played a key role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is overseeing the fortification of Belgorod Oblast along its border with Ukraine, according to Yevgenii Prigozhin, the group's founder and Russian President Vladimir Putin's close ally.
⚡️Spain to send generators to Ukraine to help with electricity crunch.
On Oct. 19, Spain’s Defense Ministry announced the provision of four sets of 400-kilowatt and one set of 150-kilowatt electricity generators to Ukraine, as the country's energy infrastructure continues to be deliberately bombarded by Russian missiles and kamikaze drones. [should be there within 3 days]
⚡️Zelensky: 3 power plants destroyed by Russia in past 24 hours.
⚡️Russia strikes energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
⚡️ Governor: Water cut off in Sumy Oblast, electricity supply limited.
⚡️Zelensky: 233 Iranian kamikaze drones shot down over Ukraine in past month.
⚡️Internet connectivity in Ukraine falls as country implements rolling blackouts.
Internet connectivity fell to 81% of ordinary levels in the city of Kyiv after Ukraine's state-owned grid operator Ukrenergo put in place the first of a schedule of rolling power blackouts in Kyiv Oblast overnight on Oct. 20, Netblocks, an Internet monitoring group reported on Twitter.
⚡️Reuters: Russia will reassess work with UN chief if he inspects drones in Ukraine.
Russia's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters after a closed-door UN Security Council meeting on Russia's use of drones against Ukraine that if UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sends experts to Ukraine to inspect Iranian-made drones Russia "will have to reassess (its) collaboration" with the UN, Reuters reports. [what an utter pissartist]
⚡️Politico: Upcoming US midterm elections cause uncertainty over future funding to Ukraine.
Despite U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy hint earlier that he would reduce aid to Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden's aides privately believe McCarthy, if he becomes speaker of a Republican-led house of representatives, will keep funding to Ukraine flowing, Politico reported.
⚡️US charges, sanctions Russians with shipping military equipment to Russia
The U.S. charged five Russian nationals with sanctions evasion and for shipping U.S.-made military technology to Russian customers, some of which has been used in Ukraine, Reuters reports.
⚡️ US warns about sanctions on 'all involved' in selling Iranian drones to Russia.
The U.S. promises to work with its allies (kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/us-warns-about-sanctions-on-all-involved-in-selling-iranian-drones-to-russia) and partners on preventing Iran's transfer of kamikaze drones to Russia for its war against Ukraine, according to the U.S. State Department.
⚡️ General Staff: Iranian instructors to teach Russians to use kamikaze drones.
Iran's leadership has agreed on sending instructors to train Russian operators of Iranian-made Shahed-136 and Arash-2 drones, Ukraine's General Staff reported on Oct. 20.
⚡️ Scholz: Germany to train 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers by spring.
The training will take place as part of the Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine, which aims to prepare about 15,000 Ukrainian soldiers, AP reports, citing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
⚔️ On Monday, October 18, the U.S. Air Force dispatched two F-16 fighter jets to intercept a pair of Russian bombers that were heading close to the borders of Alaska
The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) announced this, writes European Pravda.
🍿 The Lukashenko regime is closely watching the unrest in the Russian Federation, which is taking place as part of the mobilization, and understands that in Belarus, the situation will be even more difficult and may lead to a social explosion — Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine
🔎 In recent years, the Russian Orthodox Church has bought a number of properties on the Norwegian coast, which are located near important military facilities — Dagbladet
In particular, in the town of Bergen, the Russian Orthodox Church purchased a prayer house near one of the most important facilities of the Norwegian Armed Forces, the Haakonsvern Naval Base. The building offers a full view of the approach of ships and most of the base
🇵🇱🇰🇷 Poland signed an agreement with South Korea to purchase 288 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers
❕India will consider a proposal from Western countries to introduce a price ceiling on the purchase of Russian oil, said the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas of India Hardeep Singh Puri
⛽️It took Europe 8 months to find an alternative to Russian gas
“At first we assumed that the refusal of Russian gas would last 7 years. Today, the facts are that it took us only 8 months to make up for two-thirds of the supplies,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
📣 “Putin has found himself in a difficult position, the only tool of which is the mistreatment of the citizens of Ukraine,” – President Biden.
📌 The fight against Iranian drones costs Ukraine more than the cost of the UAVs themselves – The Guardian
🕹 The computer game Ukraine War Stories, where you have to survive the Russian occupation, will be completely free
The PC release will take place in October 2022, and the demo version can be downloaded now.
The game contains three visual novels, the action of which takes place in Hostomel, Bucha, and Mariupol. The player's task will be to save his life and evacuate from the occupation.
🤝 The European Commissioner in Kyiv announced a program to support Ukrainians in the winter, the press service of the European Commission reports
"Due to our rescEU programs, a temporary shelter will be deployed in three different regions of Ukraine at once – Rivne region, Bucha region, and Kharkiv region."
It was specified that the EU will help allocate 62.3 million euros for the preparation of temporary accommodation centers and provide them with everything necessary.
🇨🇿Minister of Defence of the Czech Republic Jana Černochová announced a new military aid package for Ukraine
⚡️The President of Switzerland came to Ukraine
‼️A hotel for Ukrainian refugees burned down in Germany, the police suspect arson
According to the police, the fire that occurred on Thursday night is believed to be arson. Earlier on Wednesday, the police visited the residential property, a hotel, over swastika graffiti on the entrance sign.
extra foto: UK Intelligence summary of how a withdrawal over the Dnipro would happen.
6 cruise missiles shot down.
(the ducks are getting better at swimming)