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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

OP posts:
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52
minsmum · 19/10/2022 17:10

mobile.twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1582654058719981568 would you like to see Vladimir Putin go to jail

notimagain · 19/10/2022 17:13

MissConductUS · 19/10/2022 13:16

I have no idea how reliable this is, but here's a report that the Russians have replaced the inertial system with their own sat nav module:

eurasiantimes.com/hitting-bulls-eye-russia-has-upgraded-iranian-shahed-136-kamikaze/

The use of the word "replace" seems to indicate that there is no control system mediating between location data provided from two sources.

@MissConductUS

Sorry bit slow in picking that post up....

To my mind it would be madness to take inertial out and replace it with satnav of any variety.....leaving jamming aside even in benign conditions you get occasional gaps/drops in satnav coverage which can erode accuracy.

If that article is correct and they've really pulled the inertial in it's entirety maybe they think GLONASS is unjammable and never waivers.....to which the answer is of course "never say never"...

notimagain · 19/10/2022 17:17

Naem · 19/10/2022 15:08

Although they are saying they will help build a "‘life-saving civilian early-warning system". Not sure if this is useful or special - maybe some of the military experts could comment:

www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-israel-may-supply-ukraine-with-rocket-and-drone-alert-system-but-not-weapons/

Their system for distributing warnings very promptly across the population is pretty good so I'd certainly think of they could contribute some of their expertise it would help..

Greenshake · 19/10/2022 17:36

I cannot believe I am saying this, but with particular reference to Ukraine, I would probably be pleased to see Boris return at this point.

blueshoes · 19/10/2022 18:05

minsmum · 19/10/2022 17:10

mobile.twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1582654058719981568 would you like to see Vladimir Putin go to jail

Lol. I had the same thought as him. Jail is too good for the bastard.

MissConductUS · 19/10/2022 18:14

@notimagain, my assumption in reading that article was that replacing the inertial guidance with a sat nav module was simple enough to do quickly while adding sat nav and a referee module was a greater engineering challenge, so they decided that on balance, they'd rather have sat nav guidance. It wouldn't be their first questionable decision.

On an unrelated note, today's Ukraine: The Latest podcast was very good and reviewed the situation in Kherson, Ben Wallace's trip across the pond and what the impact might be if the Republican party takes back control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. The host invited the American listeners to email their thoughts on recent statements by Republican congressman Kevin McCarthy on support for Ukraine, which I am going to do after I have a bit of lunch.

Igotjelly · 19/10/2022 18:16

MissConductUS · 19/10/2022 18:14

@notimagain, my assumption in reading that article was that replacing the inertial guidance with a sat nav module was simple enough to do quickly while adding sat nav and a referee module was a greater engineering challenge, so they decided that on balance, they'd rather have sat nav guidance. It wouldn't be their first questionable decision.

On an unrelated note, today's Ukraine: The Latest podcast was very good and reviewed the situation in Kherson, Ben Wallace's trip across the pond and what the impact might be if the Republican party takes back control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections. The host invited the American listeners to email their thoughts on recent statements by Republican congressman Kevin McCarthy on support for Ukraine, which I am going to do after I have a bit of lunch.

Yes just finished it, was good today.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 19/10/2022 18:17

Twitter thread ref Martial Law:

twitter.com/markgaleotti/status/1582749071407996928?s=46&t=3lwk9e8yzqn56giFb9EMzA

Putin has just issued two presidential decrees on martial law, following an emergency meeting of the Security Council. A quick thread with some first thoughts about how this is in effect a declaration of variegated martial law across the whole of Russia

Ijsbear · 19/10/2022 18:31

ScrollingLeaves · 19/10/2022 16:20

Would martial law in the annexed districts mean that Ukrainians who were not able to leave will be put in the Russian army against the Ukrainians trying to free those areas? And shot at from behind if they try to turn back or away?

This has been going on months in Luhansk, Donetsk and now it's happening in Kherson.

Some genuine support Russia but some support Ukraine. Russia occupies, and picks them up. If they protest they are told their family will be shot or their children removed to Russia. So they are inducted into the separatist battallions and sent to the front. Because even Russia realises they are not committed, there is a second line behind these conscripted forces. If they try to surrender or rebel, they are shot by this second line. There is also a third line behind this (Chechen forces are heavily involved here).

There is no way to escape, but you certainly don't get committed and skilled forces.

RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 18:38

The German president was due to visit Kyiv tomorrow. Its been cancelled due to security reasons.

Igotjelly · 19/10/2022 19:03

RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 18:38

The German president was due to visit Kyiv tomorrow. Its been cancelled due to security reasons.

To be fair the Greek foreign minister (I think) spent today in a bunker in Kyiv.

mids2019 · 19/10/2022 19:16

So do we think there is any credence to the press reports of increased chance of nuclear bomb use with the hurried visit of Ben Wallace to the US and implications that his conversations were 'beyond belief' ?

The Sun and Mail were making.a lot of noise about this; not so much the broadsheets.

I have to be cynical and I think the tabloids might be ramping this up o to cover for the current govgovernment implosion.1

Ijsbear · 19/10/2022 19:26

Be cynical.

Nuclear talk is so much easier than looking at the real problems.

MagicFox · 19/10/2022 19:40

On that thought this thread was good:

@stevenjxu

There's a prevailing myth in media & some IR "experts" that says the West dare not to get involved in the Ukraine War directly because they are "deterred" by the Russian nuclear arsenal. If the logic is right, Putin would invade the E.U. & the U.S. will lose the 1st Island Chain.
There's a necessity to think a step further. What card is still on the hands of Russia if they use nuclear? and, is the card really valid to the West? If the answer is "No" to either question, the nukes certainly aren't, and shouldn't, become a major consideration to the West.
In an eye on strategy, the possible Russian use of its nuclear warheads may offer the West a good chance to achieve its extra interests in geopolitics. Russia will be pariah state, the UNSC will be rejuvenated, China & DPRK will be the next targets. Iran & Taliban will be curbed.
If I'm the U.S. President, I will "look forward" to seeing Putin arrives the end game before the schedule & wish him turn in his grave by fulfilling his suicide mission, while getting ready to step in the game in the post-Russia era & grab the geopolitical gifts by the throat.

OP posts:
MissConductUS · 19/10/2022 20:14

According to an intercept from wartranslated.com, a Russian commander is offering front-line soldiers rotation to the rear for 5000 rubles per day.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1582657818259509248

The corruption in the Russian army is almost unbelievable. This is why they lack unit cohesion, military discipline, and trust in the chain of command.

Mb76 · 19/10/2022 20:46

I also think, on top of corruption, russian army is made of so many different nationalities who have nothing in common and as been mentioned already, disproportionally represented by ethnic minorities. They will never be as motivated and united as Ukrainian army who are one people fighting for their homeland

RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 23:12

Quiet tonight. Kinda just as well as my twitter would explode.

BreadInCaptivity · 20/10/2022 00:29

Calm before the storm?

Hancox432 · 20/10/2022 01:02

I do worry that the shit show that we currently have in Westminster and the worry about the republicans and the mid terms will be playing right into Putin's hand. Deviding the west will be a much bigger victory for him than any annexation.

RedToothBrush · 20/10/2022 01:16

BreadInCaptivity · 20/10/2022 00:29

Calm before the storm?

Buzz is no significant changes in any of the battlefields.

And yes our batshittery in politics combined with actual fascists in Italy (one who had to be told to take down pic of Mussoleni earlier in the week cos it was a bit too sensitive) and the US midterms (and GOP threatening to kill the budget if they get a house majority) its worrying.

MagicFox · 20/10/2022 07:00

Round up from Twitter this morning. Pretty quiet at 7am

@francisscarr Today on Russian TV: Ukraine has a nuclear bomb primed in Mykolaiv which it will detonate and then blame on Russia so that the US has a justification for getting directly involved in the war and launching missiles on Russia. Got all of that? 🤪

@igorsushko Russian military columns are retreating out of #Kherson thru Kakhovka across Dnipro River further east. At this time unclear if the city is in the process of being completely abandoned. Significant amount of heavy machinery that cannot be transported across the river abandoned.

@juliadavisnews Russian lawmakers Andrey Gurulyov and Konstantin Dolgov advocate freezing, starving the Ukrainian civilian population, forcing them into exile by making their survival otherwise impossible. State TV host Olga Skabeeva disingenuously claims that Russia simply has no other choice.

@velinatchakarova The EU is planning to impose sanctions on Iran over the delivery of drones to Russia for its war against Ukraine. It seems that the Iran Deal 2.0 which is in the European interest mostly because of energy diversification becomes even more unrealistic under these circumstances.

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Igotjelly · 20/10/2022 08:24

Just listening to Ukrainecast from yesterday afternoon. Interesting and horrific discussion with a human rights investigator who has been in Izyum. Clearly terrible reports of actions by Russia but interestingly also some documented evidence of war crimes by the Ukrainians (though absolutely nothing in relation to the actions of theRussians!)

L1ttledrummergirl · 20/10/2022 09:02

Hancox432 · 20/10/2022 01:02

I do worry that the shit show that we currently have in Westminster and the worry about the republicans and the mid terms will be playing right into Putin's hand. Deviding the west will be a much bigger victory for him than any annexation.

Regardless of the shit show the tories have created, support for Ukraine is across the house and the one thing the tories agree on.

I can't say for America, but the UK is still strong on that point.

Igotjelly · 20/10/2022 09:55

Ben Wallace to deliver a statement in the Commons today on the situation in Ukraine.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 20/10/2022 10:41

It depresses me that China sees the misery and destruction wrought on Ukraine by Russia but still thinks taking Taiwan by force is acceptable.
This from yesterday's Times by Beijing correspondent Didi Tang:

China speeding up plans to annex Taiwan, says Antony Blinken

China is pursuing reunification with the self-governed island of Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” than previously expected, the US secretary of state Antony Blinken has declared.

The Chinese government had decided the status quo was no longer acceptable, Blinken added, following large-scale military drills in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island this year.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers Taiwann to be a rogue province and in a speech on Sunday President Xii refused to rule out using force to unify the island with the mainland.

Blinken, America’s top diplomat, said that the US would honour its commitments to help defend Taiwan in the case of an invasion. He did not say if the US would send troops, in line with a long-standing policy of “strategic ambiguity” that stops short of officially recognising the government in Taipei.

Speaking at an event at Stanford University yesterday with Condoleezza Rice, the previous secretary of state, Blinken said that Beijing would use coercion and possibly force to achieve unification if diplomatic methods did not work.

That is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions,” he said. “Instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, a fundamental decision that the status quo was no longer acceptable and that Beijing was determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline.”

This year Chinaa’s People’s Liberation Army staged its largest military drills to date near Taiwan, firing ballistic missiles over the island and deploying dozens of fighter jets and warships around the island, in response to the visit by Pelosii, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, to Taipei.

During his speechh_ opening the CCP’s congress on Sunday, Xi said “the historical wheels of national unity and rejuvenation are rolling forward,” adding: “The complete unification of the motherland must be achieved, and it can definitely be achieved.”

In reference to Taiwan, he said: “We will insist on striving for the prospect of peaceful unification with the most sincerity and by making the maximal efforts... But we will never promise to give up the use of force, and we reserve the option to take all necessary measures.”

The Taiwanese government immediately rebuffed Xi’s comments, repeating that it was a sovereign state that “has never been part of the People’s Republic of China”.

During his talk, Blinken said peace in the Taiwan Strait was not only a concern to the US but also to the world because it remained one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. “The amount of commercial traffic that goes through the straits every single day and has an impact on economies around the world is enormous,” he said. “If that were to be disrupted as a result of a crisis, countries around the world would suffer.”

He added: “On semiconductors, if Taiwanese production were disrupted as a result of a crisis, you would have an economic crisis around the world.”

Washington remains “fundamentally committed” to the one-China policy, by which the US government recognises the People’s Republic of China but does not recognise Beijing’s sovereignty over Taiwan. “At the heart of that was a commitment to resolve these differences peacefully,” Blinken said.

He expressed hopes that Beijing would return to peaceful ways and that “it doesn’t try to force things through coercion, and even worse, through force. If that’s changing, then that does offer, unfortunately, prospects for very challenging situations going forward.”

Responding to Blinken’s speech, Wang Wenbin, spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, accused Washington of altering its own approach to Taiwan, citing examples such as Pelosi’s visit and recent arms sales to Taipei.
“Peacefully resolving the Taiwan issue cannot coexist with Taiwan separatism,” Wang said.
Wang urged the US to honour its committee and not to support Taiwan independence.
“We are ready to create broad space for peaceful reunification, but we will never leave any room for secessionist activities seeking ‘Taiwan independence’ in any form,” he said.

Xi is widely expected to meet Biden on the sidelines of a Group of 20 summit next month in Bali, their first meeting since the US leader took office.

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