Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

>Ukraine have had pretty consistent and strict media blackouts whenever they are conducting offensive operations. Basically to protect information flow.

The Ukrainians do put a lid on things very effectively. I dip in to Russian social media because some of the posters there are candid and pretty accurate. What they post is out there and the Ukrainians can see it too. So long as you state a source and are cautious it seems useful information. The Russians often name the units involved.

Strelkov/Girkin was one such, although he added in extra misty eyed Russian romanticism.

However, further along the spectrum are unreliable Ru sources that always seem to be capturing the same place. Further beyond those is total craziness.

I chatted briefly to a relative in Kyiv today who is feeling worn down by the length of the war and now the Iranian drones. More than that I keep picking up a sense of loss of the normal life with its patterns, rituals and rites of passage. I also regretted sending a message to an old contact in Moscow. I was curious to see if he was still there and got 'oh not another one of you hating on me'. which I wasn't.

Jimmy Rushton at JimmySecUk
Russia is publicly warning that Ukraine is preparing a "missile attack on the Kakhovka Dam" in Nova Kakhovka - they will probably use this allegation as an excuse to forcibly deport Ukrainian civilians on the West side of the Dnipro to 'safer' Russian occupied territories.

The following was reported on 16th

Brady Africk at bradyafr
One of the bridges built by Russian forces to cross the Nova Kakhovka lock has been removed or destroyed, recent low resolution satellite imagery shows.

If Russia have lost this crossing point and they are struggling north of the river and can't hold Kherson, blowing the damn would be in their interests following withdrawal as a natural defensive line.

Something is brewing...

>I've a possibly - irrational belief that Prigozhin is going to try to depose Putin and become the new leader.

I don't think so but then what he and Kadyrov do have to facilitate that are their own private armies. I think Kadyrov's would be even more loyal. Putin had probably better not review their troops.

Worth stressing if that bridge is gone, then evacuation routes and capability out of the northern part of Kherson region is somewhat limited.

Saying you are going to evacuate civilians means it's harder to bomb the surviving crossing points as you have human shields...

forgive my ignorance with this one…what’s the difference between NATO supplying air defence and NATO aligned countries supplying air defence systems? Surely this is the same thing? Or does NATO have its own supply of air defence systems?

Kevin Rothrock AT KevinRothrock
Meanwhile, Russian General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin sounds even more pessimistic, warning that “difficult decisions” lie ahead regarding the city of Kherson itself, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive nears. Future plans depend on “the emerging military-tactical situation.”

This seems a pretty solid confirmation that the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson, isn't going too badly...

...that sounds like they are preparing for a military evacuation as well as the forced deportation of Ukrainian citizens.

NATO has no equipment or troops of its own, it just plays a coordinating and planning role among the members.

Felix light at felix_light
And amidst all that, pro-war Russian Telegram channels have been panicking about a looming battle for Kherson all day.

Hold your breathe.

You prompted me to listen to this Igotjelly, it was excellent, I feel I need to catch up on some back episodes.
Very depressing to hear the knowledgeable guest who's be in the region say he felt like this was turning into a 'forever war' though, I've been clinging to the 'over by Christmas' brigade. In true First World War stylee.

@MissConductUS thats what I thought so was confused about the statement NATO to supply air defence, when countries in NATO are already supplying them.

I wonder if it’s more about optics in it being an agreed NATO position to supply such systems rather than the decision of ad hoc countries?

Yeh I really rate it. Not a Telegraph reader at all but they always have very measured and detailed analysis. They don’t shy away from the nuclear threat either but discuss it very pragmatically and without resorting to sound bites and alarm.

Context to the Wallace trip now looking interesting.

The last couple of days have seen clear indications of Iranian support for Russia. So far little in the way of action on that. Condemnation and talk of breaking sanctions. Not much noise from Israel.

Wallace heads over to the US on short notice for an emergency meeting.

This morning Ukraine said it was going to ask Israel for air defence systems.

This evening the US announces that NATO is going to transfer air defense systems.

This is just before it looks likely that Russia is about to retreat from Kherson from announcements this evening. And it's looking like there is movement going on around Svatove too.

Now given Russian reactions to recent reversals, you best hope that they can get those systems transfered quick.

I believe there is transfer time of as little as 48hrs for some equipment to Ukraine. The issue is having the skills to operate this stuff...

But the urgency of the Wallace trip, could easily be to do with movement on the ground.

From what I'm reading, the south / east of Ukraine isnt expecting rain this week. The suggestion is they have two weeks before the weather really turns.

So this possibly is the last major move for a while. We will see... But yeah interesting to see the Chatter on twitter tonight...

Also worth stating that the dam that 'Ukraine' are supposed to be plotting to blow up is a hydro-electric dam...

As in. It produces electricity.

Not insignificant. Take out the power and make it harder to cross the river.

Then fall back to Melitopol and Donbas areas. Makes sense from a Russian POV.

NATO and some non-NATO countries (known collectively as the Ukraine Contact Group). have been holding regular meetings in Ramstein, Germany, to work out who will supply what to Ukraine to avoid duplicates and gaps in the supplies. This may be where the confusion is coming from.

Sky News also commenting on the secretive and sudden nature of Ben Wallace’s visit to Washington. Reflecting that discussions taking place appear to be particularly grave.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-mysterious-ben-wallace-trip-to-washington-amid-fears-of-russian-escalation-12723942

That's Deborah Haynes again, Jelly. Nothing new in that report: it's based on Heppey's comments and that's all they've got. They're bringing in other stuff to extrapolate but we can't know. I get the anxiety, I feel it too but we need to take deep breaths until we have something solid to go on.

Jumping off RTB's post earlier, I've read various sources suggesting a likely possibility is the provision of more robust support to ukraine (the air defences?) and continued support with the US to Ukraine. After all, in the UK context there's been concern that Truss is backing down on defence spending etc.

Ah thanks @MagicFox totally missed her name!

Daily press briefing reported in the Guardian as having said that the U.S. will take ‘practical, aggressive’ steps to undermine Iran selling drones to Russia.

My understanding had been that previously Israel had blocked the US from transferring certain air defence systems to Ukraine.

And suddenly they've announced this.

I don't know it it is the same system.

But we know that ordinary missile strikes on Ukraine have been incredibly serious and kind of underplayed because 'arghh nukes'.

Honestly, I am starting to get really pissed off with SKY and the way they are covering/reporting this. It’s really similar to COVID and the saturation coverage of the same news repackaged in the most alarmist manner.

I don’t watch sky for that reason.

The only saving grace is Professor Michael Clarke, who is fabulous.

It feels a bit like taking the gloves off. NATO is Putin's boogeyman and maybe they've had enough of tiptoeing around the paranoid evil goblin. Maybe they think it's time to remind him that they're still there, hiding under his bed, so he'd better not do anything really stupid. Optics, as you say.

Sorry Sky again but interesting.

Telegraph reporting Wallace US meeting is about the drones.