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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

OP posts:
Thread gallery
52
Wannago · 18/10/2022 22:05

BTW re Israel - not sure if you are aware, but there is an election on 1st November - and likely to be a change of government (probably, as usual, extended negotations for new government, but most seem to think Netanyahu will sooner or later be able to form a governing coalition). Not sure to what extent it would be politic/appropriate for Lapid to commit to provide anything to Ukraine in the circumstances (he has been the most pro Ukraine, but he governs as part of a coalition). No idea what Netanyahu's views are - up until now, his view has seemed to be - anything the government does I in opposition oppose it, but he might take a different view as prime minister. While I agree Ukraine needs anti drone defences now - it might be difficult to get much out of Israel prior to the election - unless both sides are looped in (by the US, probably) and in agreement.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 22:21

Jay in Kyiv AT JayinKyiv
Russian channels ablaze now with rumors that Putin's Sec Council meeting tmrw will announce martial law and full closure of Russian border.

The Intel Crab AT IntelCrab
This rumor seems to pop up every few weeks. May not be a rumor for long...

------------

Samuel Ramani AT SamRamani2
Lithuania FM on sanctioning Iran for aiding Russia’s war:

“If Iran walks like a duck, talks like a duck and admits to supplying drones to the biggest duck in the world then I think we have enough evidence to say that Iran is a duck. Let's sanction the duck out of them”

-------------

Francis Scarr AT francis_scarr
In a late-night address posted on Telegram, Russian-installed Kherson official Kirill Stremousov calls for people to "evacuate the city as quickly as possible" and says Ukraine "will begin an offensive on the city of Kherson very soon"

Neil Hauer AT NeilPHauer
The tone out of Russian officials over Kherson in the last few hours has been increasingly hysterical. Russian authorities now posting urgent calls to evacuate the city at almost midnight local time.

RTB: Thats a different official to the one earlier tonight.

Igotjelly · 18/10/2022 22:26

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 22:21

Jay in Kyiv AT JayinKyiv
Russian channels ablaze now with rumors that Putin's Sec Council meeting tmrw will announce martial law and full closure of Russian border.

The Intel Crab AT IntelCrab
This rumor seems to pop up every few weeks. May not be a rumor for long...

------------

Samuel Ramani AT SamRamani2
Lithuania FM on sanctioning Iran for aiding Russia’s war:

“If Iran walks like a duck, talks like a duck and admits to supplying drones to the biggest duck in the world then I think we have enough evidence to say that Iran is a duck. Let's sanction the duck out of them”

-------------

Francis Scarr AT francis_scarr
In a late-night address posted on Telegram, Russian-installed Kherson official Kirill Stremousov calls for people to "evacuate the city as quickly as possible" and says Ukraine "will begin an offensive on the city of Kherson very soon"

Neil Hauer AT NeilPHauer
The tone out of Russian officials over Kherson in the last few hours has been increasingly hysterical. Russian authorities now posting urgent calls to evacuate the city at almost midnight local time.

RTB: Thats a different official to the one earlier tonight.

What are the benefits (perceived or otherwise) to Russia of imposing martial law? Appreciate they’re haemorrhaging young men at the moment so understand the thought behind border closures.

Ijsbear · 18/10/2022 22:32

Improved population control and less need to care about public opinion. A return to the status quo when Putin was young, when ordinary Russians could not leave.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 22:36

Josh Kraushaar AT JoshKraushaar
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy “signaled that additional aid to Ukraine, now in the ninth month of war with Russia, is unlikely if Republicans have a House majority.”

Mark Lowen AT marklowen
Today Silvio Berlusconi, in coalition with Italy's next PM, spoke of his renewed ties with Putin:

"For my birthday, Putin sent me 20 bottles of vodka & a very sweet letter. I replied with bottles of Lambrusco and also a lovely note. He said I was number 1 of his 5 best friends."

Yeah he was probably killing himself laughing at how little he can buy you off with mate!

www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/10/18/7372451/
Chief of Ukrainian Intelligence predicts "big victories" by end of year

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 22:38

Illia Ponomarenko AT IAPonomarenko
What could be such a sweet treat for Iran from Russia in exchange of such a fast and intense transfer of drones and ballistic missiles?
I feel like Israel might want to ask some questions here.

Important Question.

minsmum · 18/10/2022 23:01

mobile.twitter.com/AlexandreSchw88/status/1582490598820708352 just to make you smile

MissConductUS · 18/10/2022 23:14

wonderfullife123 · 18/10/2022 21:55

Telegraph reporting Wallace US meeting is about the drones.

It's maybe top of the list, but likely not the only topic.

Militarily, air defenses are necessary but not sufficient. You also have to be able to strike the drone launch sites and storage areas. Intelligence on the locations of those targets will be a high priority.

Greenshake · 18/10/2022 23:14

@minsmum that definitely works for me 🙂

MissConductUS · 18/10/2022 23:21

The new Russian commander is signaling that a withdrawal from Kherson is coming.

Russia’s Top Ukraine Commander Sees Invasion Faltering in South, but Missile Strikes Take Toll on Ukraine - Ukrainian power infrastructure takes heavy damage

Russia’s top military commander in Ukraine signaled Moscow’s hold on the southern city of Kherson was weakening, and Ukraine said Russian strikes since last week had knocked out some 30% of its power-plant infrastructure, raising concerns of countrywide blackouts.

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the recently appointed commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, gave a rare pessimistic take of his invading forces’ position, telling state television Tuesday that the situation in Kherson “is not at all easy right now” and that the priority in the south was preserving civilians and military personnel.

“Difficult decisions cannot be ruled out,” he said, without elaborating, in his first significant public comments since taking over the role.

Gen. Surovikin’s comments came as Russia launched a fresh volley of missiles at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, the latest in a number of attacks that Kyiv said has damaged nearly a third of the country’s power plants.

“Ukraine is under fire by the occupiers. They continue to do what they do best—terrorize and kill civilians,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Developments in recent days underscore the two sides’ competing offensives in the war, with Russia hammering civilian targets as Ukraine advances on the battlefield.

For weeks, Ukraine has sought to choke off thousands of Russian troops trapped on the western bank of the Dnipro River in and around Kherson, the capital of a region that Russia last month declared was part of its territory. Russia seized the city in the early days of its invasion, the only regional capital to fall.

Gen. Surovikin’s comments late Tuesday, delivered in his characteristic deep monotone, suggested that strategy was succeeding. The city was suffering from shortages of food, water and electricity, he said, as Ukraine had damaged the main bridge used to supply Russian forces in Kherson and a crossing over a dam to the northeast.

Western military analysts have long said that Russian forces would be advised to leave Kherson to avoid a rout. But Russian President Vladimir Putin feted the city as new Russian territory in a ceremony in Moscow less than a month ago.

The top Russia-appointed representative in the region, Vladimir Saldo, also gave a somber take on events Tuesday, saying Russia was transferring civilians to the eastern bank of the Dnipro from districts north of Kherson, where Ukrainian forces have advanced in recent weeks, in order not to impede Russian forces.

Ukraine has used precise, long-range rockets provided by the U.S. to hammer bridges across the Dnipro, as well as command posts and ammunition and fuel depots. Ukrainian troops have advanced toward Kherson from the north in fits and spurts since launching an offensive in late August.

The advance of Kyiv’s forces in the south followed a lightning offensive in the northeast, where they seized swaths of territory last month.

As Russia’s position on the battlefield has worsened, it has increasingly targeted Ukrainian infrastructure in an apparent attempt to crush the will of Ukraine’s civilian population.

On Tuesday, it hit cities across the country with drone and missile strikes.

Russia’s strikes have caused rolling blackouts since Oct. 10, when Russia first responded to Ukraine’s battlefield victories with barrages against critical infrastructure. The Kremlin’s strategy of targeting critical infrastructure is intended to sow panic in the population while diminishing the country’s resolve and ability to fight.

Tuesday’s strikes hit targets in Zhytomyr, Kharkiv and Dnipro, cutting the supply of electricity and water. Other Russian strikes in the southern region of Mykolaiv overnight used modified S-300 surface-to-air missiles to hit residential houses, killing at least one person and leveling parts of the city’s flower market.

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said three workers in the city’s critical infrastructure were killed as a result of the strikes. The deputy head of Mr. Zelensky’s administration, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, told Ukrainians to prepare for blackouts across the country after days of Russian strikes.

“The situation is critical,” he said in a television interview.

Russian air attacks in recent weeks have underscored Ukrainian officials’ calls for more air-defense capabilities from the West. On Monday, a swarm of Iranian-produced drones struck central Kyiv, hitting energy infrastructure and at least one residential block.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he had asked Mr. Zelensky to cut off ties with Tehran as a result of Iran’s military assistance to Russia, Ukrainian media reported. He also said Ukraine would send a note officially requesting air-defense systems to protect against Iranian Shahed drones.

On Tuesday, a U.S. senior military official said the Biden administration was working to get the first deliveries of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, or NASAMS, a short and medium-distance system, to Ukraine in the coming weeks. European countries are also contributing various air-defense systems.

“From a U.S. standpoint, we’re going to continue to stand by the Ukrainians and provide them with the support that they need, as they try to push these Russian forces back,” the official said.

The U.S. has spent nearly $20 billion in security assistance for training and equipment for Ukraine since 2014, when a street protest movement ousted a Moscow-backed president in favor of a pro-Western government. Moscow, which called the ouster a coup, then aided armed separatists in Ukraine’s primarily Russian-speaking east, starting the conflict between Kyiv and the Kremlin.

Washington’s assistance has provoked Russian officials to warn that their real enemy isn’t Ukraine but the U.S. It has also prompted the U.S. to modify optics around military exercises. A wargame planned to exercise the North Atlantic Treaty Organization nuclear deterrence capabilities started early this week in Belgium, involving fourth- and fifth-generation jet fighters and B-52 long-range bombers. A NATO statement said the exercises had been long planned and weren’t linked to any current events.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Moscow would be closely watching the exercises to understand NATO’s stance toward nuclear deterrence.

Mr. Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling has unnerved observers, though many see it as little more than rhetoric. The U.S. has said it hasn’t seen any indications that Russia has changed its nuclear stance.

Russian occupation of Europe’s biggest nuclear-power plant in Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region has also raised fears over Moscow’s ability to maintain the integrity of the system while pressuring Ukrainian experts at the power plant to pledge loyalty to the Kremlin.

Energoatom said Tuesday that two more managers of the power plant were abducted on Monday.

“Currently, nothing is known about their whereabouts and state,” the Ukrainian state nuclear company said.

Tuesday’s strikes also came hours after a Russian Su-34 jet fighter crashed into a housing complex in the Russian city of Yeisk, near Crimea. Anna Minkova, deputy governor of Russia’s Krasnodar territory, said Tuesday that 15 people died because of the crash and 25 others are in hospitals.

Russian investigators said a technical malfunction likely caused the war plane, which was flying nearby, to crash into the nine-story apartment complex, reducing parts of it to rubble and sending flames throughout much of the rest of the building.

Demining teams were working through the rubble on Tuesday to ensure none of the plane’s munitions posed a danger to repair efforts.

RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 00:13

MissConductUS · 18/10/2022 23:14

It's maybe top of the list, but likely not the only topic.

Militarily, air defenses are necessary but not sufficient. You also have to be able to strike the drone launch sites and storage areas. Intelligence on the locations of those targets will be a high priority.

So of the more sensational press tonight remark on the increased likelihood of nukes.

They aren't suggesting one over Ukraine. The speculation is a demonstration of strength by detonating one in the Black Sea.

Although there appears to be no actual evidence of the movement of warheads at this time, its felt prudent with the situation about to escalate with a forced Russian retreat from Kherson, that the UK and US discuss the possibility and what to do if that happens.

In other words this is still very much precautionary prudence rather than reactionary measure due to an observation of concern. This is something we should be doing as a matter of routine.

Iran entering into the fold also has other major implications. Firstly there is the obvious threat to Ukraine. But there are some more secondary threats here. Iran has broken the agreement over sanctions - so you have to consider why the sanctions were in place and what this means. That takes you to the elephant in the room - how did a country which has a cash flow issue afford to pay for drones and trading in how to use them?

At the heart of negotiations with Iran were the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and Germany—collectively known as the P5+1. The European Union also took part. ^^

What were the goals?
The P5+1 wanted to unwind Iran’s nuclear program to the point that if Tehran decided to pursue a nuclear weapon, it would take at least one year, giving world powers time to respond. Heading into the JCPOA negotiations, U.S. intelligence officials estimated that, in the absence of an agreement, Iran could produce enough nuclear material for a weapon in a few months. Negotiating nations feared that Iran’s moves to become a nuclear weapons state risked thrusting the region into a new crisis. Israel had taken preemptive military action against suspected nuclear facilities in Iraq and Syria and could do the same against Iran, perhaps triggering reprisals by Lebanon-based Hezbollah or disruptions to the transport of oil in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has since signaled a willingness to obtain a nuclear weapon if Iran successfully detonates one.

Russia has nuclear knowledge and capability. You have to assume that the most likely response to how and why did Iran and Russia reach a deal over drones - has something to do with nuclear. It has the added efficienct of destabilising world power as well as getting drones.

That really would require discussion.

One final point : the USA had been counting missiles and how many were left. They had observed that they had nearly exhausted 2/3 of missiles. That equation needs an adjustment...

So some quite heavy business to deal with. Its not all about drones. The uptick in missiles available to russia has other important implications to international security and stability.

The big one being that Russia has undermined the entire Iranian Nuclear Deal. Quite deliberately.
^^

ScrollingLeaves · 19/10/2022 00:27

thereisonlyoneofme · Yesterday 14:33
A third of Ukraines power stations destroyed, what is this going to mean with winter coming on. May all the devils of hell descend on Putin and his evil mob

I have been wondering this too, thereisonlyone. The Russians could carry on and destroy the rest too. Channel 4 News tonight mentioned that Russia and Ujraine used to have integrated energy so the Russians know exactly where all the sites are.

Where are the drones being flown from?

ScrollingLeaves · 19/10/2022 00:45

MissConductUS · Yesterday 23:14

^wonderfullife123 · Yesterday 21:55
Telegraph reporting Wallace US meeting is about the drones.
It's maybe top of the list, but likely not the only topic.^

Militarily, air defenses are necessary but not sufficient. You also have to be able to strike the drone launch sites and storage areas. Intelligence on the locations of those targets will be a high priority.

What happens if the launch sites are in Belarus or Russia? Will it be allowed to destroy them?

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 19/10/2022 01:06

Another round up from Dmitri @ wartranslated

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1582504102726017025?s=61&t=vIMr8iX4j3cNS5rmr3ZMwQ

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 19/10/2022 01:38

🤞

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
MissConductUS · 19/10/2022 01:41

ScrollingLeaves · 19/10/2022 00:27

thereisonlyoneofme · Yesterday 14:33
A third of Ukraines power stations destroyed, what is this going to mean with winter coming on. May all the devils of hell descend on Putin and his evil mob

I have been wondering this too, thereisonlyone. The Russians could carry on and destroy the rest too. Channel 4 News tonight mentioned that Russia and Ujraine used to have integrated energy so the Russians know exactly where all the sites are.

Where are the drones being flown from?

I haven't seen any information about where they are based and flown from, but it's a near certainty that American military intelligence knows.

RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 07:21

I know it's been said that at least some of the drones have been launched from Belarus.

Michael McKay At Mhmck
In Kherson region, the Russians attempt to improve logistical support for their troops.

At the same time they are trying to covertly move personnel and equipment. To that end, the Russians have cut off Internet and mobile providers in Tavriys'k and Nova Kakhovka.

Total news blackout by the dam. Stops any troubling or pesky leaks about what is happening there.

MagicFox · 19/10/2022 07:36

@faytuks Russia, Belarus, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, China, Cuba, Nicaragua and Syria, calls for the use of "all available mechanisms" to receive answers in connection with information about US military biological activities in Ukraine - TASS

@giovannigruini Today Berlusconi claimed he had an exchange of “sweet” letters with V Putin. They also exchanged gifts in the form of vodka and wine. Putin apparently claimed Berlusconi is one of his 5 best friends. Berlusconi’s party is expressing the new Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs. twitter.com/giovannigruni/status/1582441787222036480?s=46&t=ayHyRCRdWufcwZaLXG5jew This is a thread worth reading about mad fascist fetishism suddenly showing its face in Italy

@francisscarr "An interesting exchange on Russian state TV the other night. Host Vladimir Solovyov calls for strikes on military sites across Europe where Ukrainian troops are being trained, but military expert Yevgeny Buzhinsky retorts that this would mean declaring war on Nato. Solovyov keeps on going, but then pundit Yakov Kedmi steps in too and tells him to quit the "empty talk""

Putin to hold security council meeting today, also hearing lots about martial law rumours on Twitter

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 07:41

Tim Ehrhart at ArtisanalAPT
Looks like the Russians finished creating a barge bridge over the Dnipro near Kherson in the past 24 hours. Imagery from Oct 18 show a barge pushing the last parts into place at 0814 UTC. This allows Russia to resupply faster or to evacuate quickly. It's also an easy target.

‘Relocation’ will take around six days - TASS quotes Russian-installed Kherson governor

Jason Whitley at jwhitleyamery
Can anyone explain how this barge bridge works? These are grain barges right? Can they hold the wieght of heavy equipment on their roofs? What about being top heavy and flipping. Has this ever been utilized before, a bridge made of cargo barges?

Paul Levchuk at coffeeandpaul
So, in the first iteration what we saw was, the Russians home -invaded & murdered a local grain businessman & his wife, + their dog, & the next morning Russian soldiers boarded all the barges belonging to his company & tugged them downstream, then upstream, to Kherson.

They welded steel "diamond" plating to the tops of each barge & gradually assembled a line of these, but of course the Ukrainians started to sink them. This led the Russians to rethink, & so during the daytime they'd flood each barge, putting it underwater, & each night they'd

flush bilges, refloat each barge, assemble them in a line, & voila... temporary bridge. They use the Antonovskiy Bridge column piers like anchorages, guides to float each barge off of. This little bathtub toy project has been going on for months. It seems they're ready to use it.

Oh, so to answer your question, the barges (grain barges) are wide enough that they don't have to worry about tipping as long as the traffic stays in the middle, plus expect each barge to be chain -stayed to its neighbors. As long as there's no hurricanes or rockets about, this

should do the job of holding sufficient for mechanized (tracked) & rolling traffic. The tops of each are steel plate. They can use it, then sink the bridge underwater, & then raise it again the next night. It's a neat concept & one of the few great ideas the Russians have had

That part of the Dnipro, the water gets VERY cold but the river current keeps ice from forming. Near the banks they'll see ice, but not in the river. Here's what the river looks like late winter...

More difficult to do in winter.

Arabnews at arabnews
BREAKING: Russia says it thwarted Ukrainian attempt to strike Antonovsky Bridge

Twitter is showing video footage from Russia TV showing people queuing to leave Kherson. Reports are they are planning to 'evacuate' 50k to 60k people.

Oh and theres this weird pic of arnie and sly doing the rounds

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 19/10/2022 07:50

‘Kherson is waiting for the ZSU’?

I saw the original picture where they were just carved pumpkins.

RedToothBrush · 19/10/2022 08:03

Rob Lee at RALee85
Alexander Kots and Kharchenko both say that there is an issue with Russian commanders still moving reinforcements to the front in large columns, leaving them vulnerable to artillery strikes after observation from UAVs

Kots says this is what happened to the 27th Motorized Rifle Brigade near Svatove, which is manned with mobilized soldiers. He says some mobilized soldiers arrived at the front without training. He also notes that other units use cloud cover to move

Dara Massicot AT Massdara
Rob- the cloud cover reference caught my eye. Is this new / have you seen a reference like this before?

Rob Lee AT RALee85
No, but I'm sure both sides have been using cloud cover to conceal their movements. Both sides are using DJI UAVs, so they know their limitations. Plus, Kots was in Karabakh, and the TB2 played a smaller role in the final week of the war because it was overcast

Twitter is also saying that the Russians have ordered an administrative withdrawal from Troitske. Troitske is to the north of Svatove. Rumour has it the Ukrainians have been attacking the city by HIMARS and took out a key railway bridge that links Belgorod to Svatove and beyond a few days back. This also ties with Russian reports that the Ukrainians had a concentration of troops north of Svatove which had begun to advance eastward (in the general direction of smack bang between Troitske and Svatove which would take out the road between the two if successful). This would also allow them to merely bypass the trench and line of defence the Russians have spent the last couple of weeks building.

Note caution on sources here. This is coming from Russian social media via military bloggers on twitter.

Arguably not much to be gained from lying though, apart from to mislead the Ukrainians on how many are dead / still active. Ukrainians clearly know where their own troops are...

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 19/10/2022 08:34

Yes. Our Kherson friends have said that many people are rapidly leaving Kherson this morning. They are withdrawing the army under the cover of the people.

Igotjelly · 19/10/2022 08:54

Just finished the Ukraine the Latest podcast episode from yesterday. Really interesting discussion about the Israel/Iran implications. Apparently some reports from earlier this month that Jews from Israel on pilgrimage to Ukraine appear to have been targeted by Russia (I hadn't heard this before).

No mention of Ben Wallace's trip to Washington. Only nuclear discussion was in relation to Elon Musk's recent tweets about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons and escalation to WW3 - basically saying its really unhelpful to have someone with so much influence oversimplifying something so inherently complex.

Greenshake · 19/10/2022 09:08

I just cannot work Musk out. It’s the ultimate ‘foot in both camps’ approach.

Thereisnolight · 19/10/2022 09:13

Greenshake · 19/10/2022 09:08

I just cannot work Musk out. It’s the ultimate ‘foot in both camps’ approach.

He’s basically trying to moderate, telling both sides to cop on and stop building up massive weapons of destruction that could kill us all. Lots of people are saying it. He’s just being heard more because he’s so influential.