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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

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MissConductUS · 18/10/2022 16:12

Ijsbear · 18/10/2022 15:58

I wonder if Xi Jinping is at the stage of refusing to take Putin's calls whistles

It would be better to leave him on hold, listening to elevator lift music, then drop the call after an hour.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 18/10/2022 16:18

MissConductUS · 18/10/2022 16:12

It would be better to leave him on hold, listening to elevator lift music, then drop the call after an hour.

‘Your call is important to us. You are number (pause) 78 in the queue. Please hold. Your call is….’

Greenshake · 18/10/2022 16:25

Oh the Xi Jinping stuff sounds good

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 18/10/2022 16:31

A long and fairly depressing interview with the heads and several employees of Estonia's, Latvians and Lithuania's state security agencies ref their views on Russia and its people:

https://ekspress.delfi.ee/artikkel/120083694/human-life-has-no-value-there-baltic-counterintelligence-officers-speak-candidly-about-russian-cruelty

Some 'highlights':

When engaged in a struggle with Russia, one can expect them to be excessively emotional, but also relentless. They are great, ambitious, merciless, and most of all, cruel.

Toots wasn’t surprised by the atrocities committed in Bucha. Nor were any other of the counterintelligence agents I interviewed in Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania. They’re aware of how Russians conducted themselves in the Baltics during the Second World War. Of how they conducted themselves before that. Of how they’ve always behaved. The West lacks such awareness.

„[The West is] fortunate,“ Toots remarks. „We’re a buffer between them and Russia. They’ve forgotten a lot and think Russia is just like them.“
It isn’t. And Putin isn’t the only issue.
„When the war began, we were worried about people saying it was only Putin’s war,“
Obviously, you can’t abstractly accuse an entire nation,“ says long-time Director General of the Estonian Internal Security Service Arnold Sinisalu. „But a society and a nation constitute a whole. The state may brainwash, but the germ of chauvinism still springs from the people itself.“

That is precisely how Baltic counterintelligence officers refer to Russia – not ‘it’, but ‘they’. The war in Ukraine is not Putin’s war. The cruelty is not Putin’s. The rapes, murders, gouged eyes, hangings, and burned corpses aren’t special tactics employed by Russia’s leader. It is Russia as a whole.
„The majority of Russians are to blame,“ says Sinisalu.
Western colleagues sometimes have a hard time believing this.
„They’re certainly more naïve and optimistic than we are,“ says one Baltic counterintelligence officer.
„When we tried explaining to our partners that Russia can’t be trusted, they denied it,“ another adds, visibly resentful. Georgia, the Crimea – nothing changed. „And here we are in 2022.“ Several interviewees imply that they’ve had to tirelessly remind Western partners of the dangers of such naiveté.
Our assessments of Russia haven’t changed in the last 30 years,“ says Mežviets. The chief analysis is this: Russia wishes to regain its status as an empire by any means.
„To them, there are no states, only zones and territories,“ Peeter explains. Russia sees itself as being surrounded by vassals and ancillaries – there is no third option.
„They’ll never come to terms with the breakup of the USSR,“ Mežviets says. As Russia’s leaders themselves have declared: Russia ends where it is stopped.
„It’s a conqueror’s mindset,“ Jauniškis says. „Everyone around them are enemies.“

The cruel culture pervading Russia’s modern army was entrenched during the era of Stalin’s Gulags. It isn’t random, but systematic. Rigid hierarchies, an inability to account for variation, autocrats locked in information bubbles, and, at the same time, a population yearning for autocracy – perhaps the hardest aspect for Westerners to wrap their heads around – have existed in Russia for centuries and will only persist.

Baltic counterintelligence directors don’t only speak about Putin, but recall the reign of Peter the Great, who ordered all Swede-supporting Russians to be executed. Again, Sinisalu and Toots chime in together with a Russian maxim: „Beat your own to frighten others.“
„Violence is a historical pattern in Russia, and that will not change,“ Sinisalu calmly adds. „Human life has no value there.“
The massacre in Bucha wasn’t unique, but a repetition of Katyn. The detonation of the Olenivka prison was a copy of the explosion in Sambir, which killed 1,200 female prisoners in 1941. Nothing has come as a surprise for anyone familiar with Ukrainian history, as Ukraine isn’t simply Ukraine – it is also Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in the 1940s.

For Russia, both sides winning equals a loss,“ remarks an Estonian entrepreneur who has organized complex business transactions with Russians for decades. „They need for there to always be winners and losers, even when negotiating.“ And only they may come out on top.
„There, diplomacy is a sign of weakness,“ says Mežviets. „Russia only recognizes force. It’s hard for the West to understand, as Westerners hold different values and believe that others do as well.“

Jauniškis compares contemporary Russian society to the medieval Mongols. Though Lithuania once joined forces with Russian princes to counter the Mongolian hordes, he feels that Russia switched sides given the behavior of its officers and soldiers alike. „They’re animals,“ he frankly states.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 18/10/2022 17:24

A friend's family member went into Kherson city centre today. They said there are a lot of russian soldiers there but they were dressed like homeless people. Citizens are panicking about the upcoming winter. Really hoping that Kherson is liberated very soon on so many levels.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 18/10/2022 17:30

Are they dressed like homeless people because they have no kit, or incognito for a surprise attack on liberating Ukr forces Hills, did your friend know?

YorkshireLondonMiss · 18/10/2022 17:39

The Twitter buzz about Wallace/Heappey going to the USA is giving me the collywobbles - why on earth did Wallace give that sound bite.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 18/10/2022 18:27

YorkshireLondonMiss · 18/10/2022 17:39

The Twitter buzz about Wallace/Heappey going to the USA is giving me the collywobbles - why on earth did Wallace give that sound bite.

Probably trying to forestall gossip.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 18:36

"Svatove" is running hot on twitter in the last hour or so. It's been incredibly quiet on the search for the last few days. But it's suddenly getting lots of hits.

Lots of pro-Ukrainian rumours blowing.

Chatter is about something happening to the north and Svatove being very noisy.

Beyond that, I won't say anymore for the time being. You are all capable of keeping an eye out for concrete developments.

TokyoSushi · 18/10/2022 18:43

Sorry to jump back in with a silly/basic question. Why is there a news blackout in Southern Ukraine?

Igotjelly · 18/10/2022 18:44

TokyoSushi · 18/10/2022 18:43

Sorry to jump back in with a silly/basic question. Why is there a news blackout in Southern Ukraine?

Ukraine have had pretty consistent and strict media blackouts whenever they are conducting offensive operations. Basically to protect information flow.

Igotjelly · 18/10/2022 18:46

Sky News reporting that NATO is to provide air defence systems to Ukraine. Between that and Iran it would go some way to explaining why Ben Wallace is in Washington?

TokyoSushi · 18/10/2022 18:46

So they're having a good go at pushing the Russians back there?

Igotjelly · 18/10/2022 18:47

TokyoSushi · 18/10/2022 18:46

So they're having a good go at pushing the Russians back there?

That would be my assumption but that doesn’t mean the Russians aren’t putting up a fight.

MagicFox · 18/10/2022 18:47

An update on Igor Sushko and those wind of change FSB letters. Whistleblower has escaped russia and reveals coup being plotted: Surovikin, Prigozhin and Kadyrov against putin. Never know whether to take these WoC things seriously. Doesn't make me feel better to

OP posts:
MagicFox · 18/10/2022 18:47

Oops pressed send to soon...was going to say it doesn't make me feel better to imagine this particular coup

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MagicFox · 18/10/2022 18:47

And the link would be helpful: twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1582414737517645830?s=46&t=_Xv6IkriZcXhuU0aAJbvhA

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RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 18:49

Twitter is alive with the following:

BREAKING: Russian governor of the Kherson region has announced the "organized movement of the civilian population to the left bank of the Dnipro river - Kommersant

www.kommersant.ru/doc/5620616?from=top_main_1

Its hard to say that's the actions of an occupying force that thinks it can hold Kherson. I don't think that this will be the news that posters here with friends / family will want to hear this.

Sounds like a Mariupol style 'evacuation' is being scaled up.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 18:51

TokyoSushi · 18/10/2022 18:43

Sorry to jump back in with a silly/basic question. Why is there a news blackout in Southern Ukraine?

So they don't give away locational information on Ukrainian units which might help artillery (think about how the Ukrainians used social media stuff to blow up Russians around Kyiv)

TokyoSushi · 18/10/2022 18:54

Thanks all, I meant more what's happening to require a news blackout but I think you've explained it now.

Hope all is as ok as it can be there.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 18:59

MagicFox · 18/10/2022 18:47

An update on Igor Sushko and those wind of change FSB letters. Whistleblower has escaped russia and reveals coup being plotted: Surovikin, Prigozhin and Kadyrov against putin. Never know whether to take these WoC things seriously. Doesn't make me feel better to

It's struck me as a being a bit Nostradamus...

Someone with enough knowledge to make it sound like they know more.

Prigozhin and Kadyrov, know they are fucked if Putin goes as they've sworn loyalty to him. That sworn loyalty is also the reason they are most likely to turn on him. In the final days of WWII in Europe Himler tried to sell out Hitler. He was his closest and most loyal support from his very early rise to power. (I've been watching Nazi the downfall on the beeb this week...)

Whether it's true or not is kinda of irrelevant. It's a likely scenario and shit stirs if its not true.

Frankly I don't think I've felt it much better than astrology much past the early phrase of the war.

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2022 19:02

It sounds like something is in progress and it's not going well from Russia. And thats from reading between the lines on Russian sources rather than Ukrainian one.

There is a sense of urgency creeping in from their side. Just little things today, which haven't been happening in the last few days.

The sense of anticipation is doing my bloody head in!

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 18/10/2022 19:03

@DesdamonasHandkerchief very good question. Much more likely they just haven't been provided for but I've asked the question. The relative also said that they are being very brazen, they've already decided that this is their land. They have opened a cafe for themselves where they relax and drink. Not like the front lines! I do wonder whether these soldiers understand the predicament they are in.

Ijsbear · 18/10/2022 19:07

I've a possibly - irrational belief that Prigozhin is going to try to depose Putin and become the new leader.

His undermining of the MoD, with Putin's previously-trusted right hand men Gerasimov and Shoigu, indicates he's broken free of only support and is now trying to guide the development of events. Because the MoD was very much Putin's support base and Prigozhin was a useful tool, and now it's the other way around, I think Putin's going to find himself fighting an attempt to supplant him before many months are up.

I rather wonder if we will hear of Prigozhin ending up as the star of a show trial, or if we'll end up hearing that Putin has made him heir-apparent and then dies 'of natural causes'

Greenshake · 18/10/2022 19:10

I think I would rather deal with Putin than that trio of savages. By the way, re the plane being escorted earlier….from UK Defence Journal:

Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
Ukraine Invasion: Part 33
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