A Round-Up published today by war translated.com:
Battlefield update:
Same directions, same sides, same success. Both sides are accumulating power. Not expecting changes for next days, perhaps weeks.
🔥 Kreminna:
🇷🇺 attempted 2 counterattacks, no success
🔥 Bakhmut:
Attacks from north by new recruits of Akhmat regiment (Kadyrovytes), from east by Wagner and drafted prisoners. Most modest estimates are that 🇷🇺 is loosing a company (75-100 solders) per day there, new waves coming over bodies of fallen. This area has two layers of barrier troops to prevent deserting.
🔥 Avdiivka:
unsuccessful 🇷🇺 attempts at north and south.
🔥 Marinka, Novomykhailivka:
same routine 🇷🇺 attempts
🔥 Kherson:
fire exchange, 🇺🇦 fires more, hits on warehouses and 2 concentrations of newly mobilized troops (approx. 150-200 killed).
🔥 Mobilized:
There is huge amount of mobilized everywhere (by announcement of Putin – 30k). New attack waves are related to mobilized troops, they are not only used for defense.
🔥 Weather:
There is more impact from rain, than from snow, however frozen ground and rivers would increase passability for vehicles and infantry. About 2 weeks until rain season starts.
🔥 Drone attacks:
Today 36 out of 62 drones destroyed. First wave on Kyiv 23 out of 28 destroyed, second wave all 16 destroyed. Right now another wave of 8 on Kyiv, launched from Crimea. Drones have range of 1000+ km. 🇷🇺 also launched 16 missiles today, some 2-3 did hit their targets. This uses air-defense missiles a lot, such usage is not sustainable in long term. 🇺🇦 needs more AA guns, like 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall has. Even 10-15 shells from AA gun are cheaper than drone they destroy, while missiles are much more expensive.
🇷🇺 has 2400 such drones, if using 100 per day, they can continue for a month, more realistically some 2-3 months with some pauses. If they are used in front-line, it will be complicated.
🔥 Iran:
Rumors of 🇮🇷 Iran preparing to supply ballistic missiles with range of 500-800km to 🇷🇺. Some information of Mohajer-6, similar to Bayraktar TB2, being sent to 🇷🇺.
🇮🇱 Israel, 🇺🇸 U.S. , 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia have means to destroy 🇮🇷 warehouses and factories, but unlikely they are prepared to start large scale conflict with 🇮🇷. So far all nations participating in 🇮🇷 nuclear hold-off deal have avoided escalations.
🔥 Second phase of war:
🇺🇦 was somehow relaxed, now enemy has found means to cause significant problems, doing mobilization. Next phase is not going to be easy. If 🇷🇺 mobilizes million solders, 🇺🇦 will need to mobilize their own citizens, that’s why borders remain closed for males.
🔥 Girkin:
Reports of Igor Girkin being assigned in 🇺🇦. Reward for his capture is being increased by crowdfunding. He understands war, and likely will find a way out. If not, he would probably do suicide, before getting captured. However front-line is perfect place for his enemies to kill him, without raising suspicion.
🔥 Prisoner exchange:
108 women released from 🇷🇺 captivity in exchange to 🇷🇺 sailors from arrested ships.
🔥 Belarus:
Lukashenka is forced to maneuver in his speech, however the louder his announcements, the less actions he takes.
Announcement of new battle group consisting of 170 tanks and 100 howitzers, which is very unusual ratio. Normally in 🇷🇺 model for 100 vehicles there would be 250-300 howitzers. This group is created with intent to endanger Kyiv, and at some conditions it could be sent into battle and destroyed, but still would cause problems for 🇺🇦.
🔥 G20 summit:
Putin would want to create maximally favourable position before summit – which means maximum damage to 🇺🇦 energy infrastructure, minimum gas suppleis to 🇪🇺, possibly conquering new territories and attack attempt on Kyiv. War might be longer, and have higher cost, but Putin has already lost.
🔥 Xi speech:
🇨🇳 Xi Kinping wants to see bi-polar world, which means there is no place for 🇷🇺 influence, and definitely no place for nuclear war.