Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted drone and missiles strikes against residential areas and critical infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine on October 17.

Russian drone strikes against residential areas in Kyiv on October 17 are indicative of Russian forces prioritizing psychological terror over tangible battlefield gains.

Yevgeny Prigozhin and affiliated Telegram channels are increasingly commenting on the ineffectiveness of traditional Russian military institutions, which may be undermining the Kremlin.

A fratricidal altercation between mobilized servicemen at a training ground in Belgorod Oblast on October 15 is likely a consequence of the Kremlin’s continual reliance on ethnic minority communities to bear the burden of mobilization in the Russian Federation.

Russia is continuing to leverage its relationship with Iran to obtain drones and missiles, likely to compensate for its increasingly attritted missile arsenal.

A Russian Su-34 crashed near a residential building in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai on October 17.

Russian sources continued to discuss potential Ukrainian counteroffensive operations northwest of Svatove on October 16 and 17.

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian Forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast on October 16 and 17.

Russian forces conducted ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 16 and 17.

Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian concentrations of manpower and equipment in Zaporizhia Oblast on October 16 and 17.

Russian authorities continued measures to exert full control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

Moscow City officials announced the completion of partial mobilization in the city on October 17, likely in an effort to subdue criticism among Moscow residents of reports of illegal mobilization in the city.

Russian and occupation administration officials continue to promote “vacation” programs to residents of Russian-occupied territories likely as pretext for the deportation of Ukrainian citizens and the resettlement of Russian citizens.

+++

⚡️ Russia hits infrastructure facility in Odesa.

⚡️ 11 more Iranian-made drones downed, official number rises to 37

⚡️ PM Shmyhal: 'Hundreds of settlements' cut off from electricity after Russia's recent attacks.

⚡️ EU raises its military assistance for Ukraine to 3.1 billion euros.
Apart from that, the European Union has agreed to launch the Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine to provide individual, collective and specialized training to Ukraine's Armed Forces, according to EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell on Oct. 17.

⚡️Minister: Ukraine to receive first NASAMS air defense systems from US soon.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov added that the U.K. and the Netherlands had also promised to provide more surface-to-air missiles.
Ukraine is also in talks on acquiring Crotale air defense systems from France, he said.

Police: 187 bodies exhumed at mass burial site in Lyman, Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Media: Russian military plane crashes into residential building in Yeysk, Russia.

⚡️Politico: US to strengthen sanctions against Iran.
Washington plans to impose further sanctions against
Tehran for helping Russia in the war against Ukraine, Politico reported, citing an undisclosed U.S. official.

Politico: Pentagon, EU consider funding Ukraine’s access to Starlink.
(kyivindependent.com/news-feed/politico-pentagon-eu-ponder-funding-ukraines-access-to-starlink)
The Pentagon is mulling over funding Ukraine's use of Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink satellite network with the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a fund that the U.S. uses to supply military assistance to Ukraine over the long term, two U.S. officials involved in the deliberations told Politico.

⚡️Canada imposes fresh sanctions against Russian propagandists.

⚡️Russian forces strike sunflower oil tanks in Mykolaiv.
Seventeen percent of the world's export of sunflower oil passes through this port, where one of Ukraine's largest sunflower oil exporters keeps its containers, according to Pletenchuk.
This is the second time Russia has struck sunflower oil containers at the port.

⚡️Update: Russia strikes energy facilities in Dnipro, serious damage reported.

⚡️Russia strikes energy infrastructure in Zhytomyr.

⚡️ Russia hits energy infrastructure in Kyiv, 3 explosions reported.

⚡️ Mayor: No electricity, water supply in Zhytomyr after Russian strikes.

⚡️ Russia's attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast causes power, water outages.

⚡️ UK intelligence: Russia aims to 'cause wide-spread damage to Ukraine's energy distribution network.' [no shit Sherlock]

Very high personnel losses again, and a fair bit of hardware too.

The duckies are getting smelly. Teenagers, eh? Their voices are breaking too, they start off peeping, their voices drop to a quack and then crack upwards to end on a squeak.

I’m sorry but you appear to have missed out the daily photo of your ducks and this simply cannot be allowed 👀👀🦆🦆

@MagicFox You have perfectly summed up how I am and I'm sure many others. There are many reasons I don't openly discuss the war (ranging from lack of confidence in my own knowledge, to not wanting to be labelled as hysterical at work). To most of my peers I would appear uninterested and unconcerned, but they are wrong.

I'll go back to lurking now, but while I'm here I want to thank you all for these threads which have been my main source of information during the conflict. You would probably be amazed at how many of us are quietly reading these threads.

Oh I'm very sorry!

They are really tame. Took them into younger son's school yesterday and they were quite laid back about 25 children petting them and feeding them for half an hour!

I'm afraid that next week we are coming back to the UK for halfterm so our wonderful Ukrainian guests will be looking after them, but we will miss them so much!

Natsku: I'm not sure how much my friends are following things because I just don't bring it up in conversation and nor do they, perhaps they are switched off or perhaps they are following but just don't like to talk about it.
This is my experience too, when it does come up in conversation though I think people think I'm a little obsessive because I follow developments so closely.
We have 3 Ukrainians living with us and sometimes I tell them what's going on!

From the BBC:

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Twitter on Tuesday that in the past eight days, "30% of Ukraine's power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country".

apart from anything else, quite accurate targetting by Russians there. Which does kinda prove their attacks on cities are terrorism not military targetting.

At that rate of destruction repair is going to be very hard. If I was Zelenskyy I'd be starting to organise wood cutting for people with stoves and massive distribution of millions of blankets for people without.

Totally hear you @vitahelp

Agreed, if you fell out of the service way back with an instructor qualification in your back pocket it was BAe and then potentially somewhere in the Gulf back in my day (.....which dates me!!)

As you say it's a well worn path but China a bit of a new one.

I know one or two who went to China to fly in civil aviation and having heard stories it's not somewhere I would fancy.

Sorry if this has been shared already. Ben Wallace has whizzed to US for important discussion.... twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1582288769369010176?s=20&t=MfutCyALhte47L0Ns8pKiw

Your Ukrainian guests will find it hard to match the round the clock filtered Twitter and MSM updates, detailed analyses and commentary and real world military expertise that this thread provides. Thanks again to all contributors.

This worries me. Would be interested to know if any other Western leaders are going.

BBC News
Ukraine war: US says Iranian drones breach sanctions

Maybe to discuss this?

Yes maybe. I wonder also to address concerns about the chaos in Downing Street and potential impact on Ukraine support.

Surely if it was ‘nukes’ more than just Ben Wallace would be going?

Him physically going suggests whatever the threat is isn't that imminent or he'd be video calling.

I thought more it was highly sensitive.

I'm not that surprised by this. China has been relying on Russian military training and strategy for years, thinking them a mighty superpower. They've seen the Russian military humiliated at the hands of the British trained Ukrainians. It's understandable they are now seeking out British military trainers. I'd do the same if I were in their shoes.

Could Ben Wallace be being summoned to the US to discuss this? Agree that on top of truss's 'very good reason' for being late to HoC yesterday, Wallace suddenly going to the US is noteworthy. Why would it just be the UK defence minister summoned?

It was an ambigous, waffley statement wheeled out to defend Liz Truss. I wouldn't worry about it.

By 'this' I meant the breaking report on former British military pilots training the Chinese

Wallace could be precisely because there are multiple reasons to go. A face to face makes more sense if there are, especially if any are indeed sensitive.

Wallace going also puts him out of Truss's way and unable to emerge as a 'unity candidate' to replace her - at least for a few days (fwiw I don't think wallace wants to move from defence particularly).

@Fladdermus

"They've seen the Russian military humiliated at the hands of the British trained Ukrainians. It's understandable they are now seeking out British military trainers. "
The Chinese were apparently headhunting for western trainers at least as early as 2019....as @ScatteredMama82 rightly said British Military Flying training has a high reputation, though TBF there have been a few problems with the system recently.

I'm not sure I like some of the noises I'm hearing from some UK politicians about this story...questioning loyalty, etc. Rather than trying to sanction individuals maybe they'd be better off asking why people are attracted to these jobs.

On a more general level the Chinese aviation industry has been recruiting pilots in large numbers from the west for at least 5-10 years now. From what I've heard from those on the civilian side of this the money is good but lifestyle isn't.

I agree, we need to not read too much into this. As yesterday’s female prisoner exchange shows, this is very multi-layered and diplomacy is still continuing.

Twitter seems rife with speculation that something has fundamentally changed in the past few days. Seem to be linking messages to citizens to leave, Liz Truss being missing from Parliament yesterday and now Ben Wallace’s urgent trip to Washington.

Truss was apparently meeting with Graham Brady from 1922 committee yesterday PM hence her absence. Re Wallace, this was from the Times yesterday late afternoon when he left for Washington:

Thanks @Greenshake ❤️

Fucking hate Twitter.