Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

I would be furious too. Another reason to avoid talking about it in RL. I might get hauled up by HR.

This is my experience too but I wouldn't underestimate head-in-sand fear. I have a friend who I would describe as not engaged on the surface. But in private, she's up to date on everything and concerned. I only know because of a drunken cocktail. There's a generalised anxiety about admitting that the world is scarily unstable. I get it!

I’ve said before and I think it’s still the case. People are really genuinely struggling, they have little to no capacity to worry about other people at a time when they can’t heat their homes or feed their kids.

@blueshoes it's worse than that he is a family member. I just smile and wave now and move away as quickly as I can. I have never liked him so it's not a surprise, as he is generally an arse who believes he knows everything about everything. It was suggested that we go on holiday with him and his partner but me recoiling in horror was so noticeable that it's not been mentioned again

Zelenskyy is to publish a book of his wartime speeches. If I asked for it for Christmas think DH would disown me 😂

@Greenshake I'm a long time lurker of these threads for info. I have nothing of use to add, but I learn a lot from them.

People I know are aware and reading things privately. I don't know many who openly discuss the war. I think there is a lot of anxiety out there about escalation.

Ooh , I wouldn't mind that book. I already have my eye on a couple of military books written by people I follow on Twitter that might raise a few eyebrows

That book sounds great. I have read quite a bit as well for more general context. I highly recommend ‘Putin Country’ by Anne Garrels and ‘’From Russia with Blood’ by Heidi Blake.

No one I know thinks that I am weird for following the war closely. 😉

If it doesn’t affect them and isn’t in their face they largely don’t care. If they can ignore it they will. Also explains why people aren’t up on arms about the cost of living yet, they won’t believe blackouts might happen (until the day they actually do) so won’t turn their heaters down a degree until they actually see the effect on their bills. They won’t recycle plastics at the supermarket because that would inconvenience them and despite the growing evidence they can’t see ahead enough to see how bad all the plastic is. They won’t stop buying and throwing away after one wear items of cheap clothing because they don’t see the sweat shops and poor conditions because those are far away and thus can be ignored. Many many people live in the here and now and deal with only what is literally in their face at that minute. Society is selfish these days, so much I’m all right jack and stuff anyone else. It will change again, some of us won’t let compassion, kindness, helpfulness, being willing to put others before ourselves, die completely but we are outnumbered right now. That’s why the nuclear headlines make people pay attention when Kiev got bombed again doesn’t, nuclear is believed to be more likely to cause issues away from the war since people know little about it except that fall out spreads with the wind.

I'm very sorry to say that my friends are largely disinterested in the war. Initially there was concern but now they avoid the topic. They know that I'm still supporting volunteers but never ask me how it's going and I never mention it. I know they think I'm weird for doing what I do. If I'm very honest, it's changed how I feel about some of them which makes me sad.

I get asked a lot how my Ukrainian guests are. I suppose it’s more personal.
One thing I have noticed though, there is oddly little correlation between caring and actually being aware of the details. People can be concerned about the individuals and keen to help them without having much awareness of how the war is going.

>What is the answer to Iran and their drones?

Possibly Israeli technology.

The current state of Iran makes me think that no normal diplomatic pressure would have an effect.

Discussing the war outside the forum: it isn't a dead issue in my little world, but other bizarre events are often trumping it for many. I have a mother from Ukraine, relatives there, and a brother with the same mixed up heritages so the conflict doesn't really go away for me.

Interesting analysis from yesterday’s Ukraine the Latest podcast around the sale of drones from Iran to Russia. Overall consensus seems to be its less of a geopolitical calculation and more a sale of necessity. Russia desperately needs weapons and clearly has very few places from which to purchase them. Iran is desperately in need of allies who might defend the regime if, as anticipated, the recent protests escalate into something more akin to a revolution.

@deborahhaynes NEW: China has recruited dozens of former British military pilots to teach the Chinese armed forces how to defeat western warplanes & helicopters in a “threat to UK interests”, officials have revealed. https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1582144939567116288?s=46&t=FcxmS6Sk6MswWHeNu9rnkg. (this is shocking!)

WSJ, Scott Hagan, "How to Keep the Ukraine Conflict From Going Nuclear" www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-keep-the-ukraine-conflict-from-going-nuclear-11665761260

I'm not sure how much my friends are following things because I just don't bring it up in conversation and nor do they, perhaps they are switched off or perhaps they are following but just don't like to talk about it. On the other hand I have semi regular arguments on an expat facebook group with one of those lefty bros who still thinks the war is all NATO's fault, but he's been posting less and less about the war lately so perhaps tuning out a bit (or finally realised not many people support his views and has moved onto to arguing other things)

I think the language in the Deborah Haynes Tweet might be a touch alarmist,

Sounds like there's been an attempt to recruit ex Forces/soon to be ex-Forces personnel by third party training providers to provide technical instruction at a basic level. It's been going on and off for decades but until now but AFAIK it's new for China to be a client....MOD have rightly issued a reminder to those involved.

Another slightly less breathless take on the story here:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/oct/18/uk-officials-threat-alert-china-attempts-to-recruit-raf-pilots

Good point @notimagain For more balance, here's the BBC article reporting the MOD alert

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63293582

My friends don't like talking about things that are too political because it causes people to get upset or be anxious. They have fallen out with people over politics before.

Having said that I think that they do talk about political things more than most people. We do have the occasional deep conversation and it's clear they have half an eye on the news.

DH is very interested in politics and we do occasionally talk about it, but he's still not as interested as me.

But then I think I'm a real outlier who loves the general knowledge and drama.

I was brought up in a house where we always watched the news. I think this was one of the big differences - I know few people who had the same. Their window on the world has always been small.

DS is likely to be like DH at the very least. He loves general knowledge and watching the news. His school report is already saying that he's beyond his years for geography and history. That's a lot to do with the household he is growing up in and his mother's obsessiveness...

Over night official reports from Svatove state that Ukraine have been on the defensive rather than offensive

Nothing new about Kherson.

What I am starting to see is footage of the Ukrainians struggling in the mud though.

This worries me.

Is this one of the reasons for the news Black out? Has the weather turned against Ukrainian fortunes?

I was brought up in a house where we always watched the news. I think this was one of the big differences - I know few people who had the same. Their window on the world has always been small.

I agree this makes a difference. We grew up with the news on the radio while we ate our tea every day, which naturally led to us discussing the news while eating tea. Also watched HIGNFY as a family every week which made the news and politics much more interesting to me as a child than the radio news did.
I don't do the same with my children (which I feel a bit bad about now but its just not the same listening to the news in Finnish) and it shows, my daughter has zero interest in the news.

We've always been avid news watchers in our house and DC have followed. When DS2 was a teen we used to put the world to rights out on long hacks on our horses and he was an activist when he lived in the UK. Now he is in Finland he and DIL have been helping out at a centre supporting Ukrainian refugees.
Our attitude did cause one or 2 problemswhen DS1 was young as he is a worrier and we realised when during the Yugoslavian break up he clung to my leg pleading with me not to go shopping. Only when he said it was because there was no one with a blue helmet to protect me did we connect it to strikes on a market. He'd previously worried about forest fires in Australia so we bought a globe and used that a lot. A couple of years later his teacher was very impressed that he could point to nearly every country in Africa on a map when none of the other children could identify anywhere other than South Africa.

We always had the news on, it sometimes did result in very animated debates. My brother is a foreign correspondent so we still get to have good discussions putting the world to rights. As some of my family live in Europe and /or have partners from Europe it changes your viewpoint and knowledge

i put the news shows on most days and the older ones sometimes join us for HIGNFY. But it’s been a gradual introduction

Thanks to this thread, we’ve been chatting a bit more about the Ukrainian war

To be fair we always have the news on. DD is 10 and very opinionated about the revolving door of Number 10 😂 she also frequently asks about Ukraine but I think that largely stems from having a refugee in her class at school.

I think engaging children early is so important, these are the activists of the future. At the same time it needs to be sensitive and carefully managed to avoid scaring them shitless.

My DH is a serving military pilot instructor here in UK. We have a number of friends with similar background who have moved abroad to become civilian instructors working as a contractors training foreign military pilots. It's not unusual at all. The British pilot training scheme is much admired and highly regarded internationally, hence they offer huge salaries and tax incentives to encourage ex-forces pilots to go to their country and instruct. I've not heard of anyone going to China though!